Daniel Payne reports on how the health industry and Washington influence and impact each other. He joined STAT in 2025 after covering health care at POLITICO. You can reach Daniel on Signal at danielp.100.

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s major domestic policy law will result in nearly 10 million more people going without health insurance by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate on the final law.

The law, which included significant cuts in federal health spending, is expected to add about $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.

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The new estimates are the first comprehensive look at the legislation as passed by Congress on July 3. They’re broadly similar to previous estimates, but find that about 1.8 million fewer people will lose health insurance. That’s largely because a provision was dropped that would have reduced federal funding for Medicaid programs in states that provided coverage to undocumented immigrants.