In the keenly contested by-election held in Kerala’s Nilambur assembly seat today, the Congress has wrested the seat from the LDF, with its candidate Aryadan Shoukath defeating his nearest rival, CPI(M)’s M Swaraj, by around 10,000 votes.

The by-election was necessitated by the resignation of two-term CPI(M)-backed Independent legislator P V Anvar, who also contested as an Independent this time.

Advertisement

The constituency, which falls within the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat represented by Congress’s Priyanka Gandhi, registered 75.87 per cent polling.

Shoukath is the son of late Congress veteran Aryadan Muhammed, who had represented the seat from 1987 to 2016.

What does the win mean for Congress?

Congress had approached the by-election as a mandate against the nine-year regime of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. This is the first by-election held since 2021 in which Congress has managed to wrest back a seat from the LDF; in previous by-elections, Congress could only retain its sitting seats.

Story continues below this ad

The party’s victory would boost its confidence to fight local body elections later this year and the assembly elections in April-May next year. To secure a win, the Congress had to fight not only its nearest rival, the CPI(M), but also Anvar.

Within the Congress, the verdict will cement the clout of Opposition leader V D Satheesan, who led the campaign machinery. The win is also a consolation for the new state leadership under KPCC president Sunny Joseph, who replaced K Sudhakaran last month.

Satheesan had opposed Anvar’s demand that he be allowed to associate with the UDF in Nilambur, and a defeat would have weakened Satheesan’s supremacy in the UDF and the Congress.

Setback for CPI(M), Vijayan

The defeat of the party’s candidate comes close on the heels of the Vijayan government completing nine years in power. Asserting that the LDF government does not face any anti-incumbency, the CPI(M) has already begun a campaign for a third consecutive term next year when the state goes to the polls.

In Nilambur, CPI(M) had fielded its own candidate, in a departure from the past practice of backing Independents. However, the party failed to neutralise anti-incumbency by launching the young leader. At the same time, the verdict from hinterland Nilambur cannot be taken as a harbinger of what awaits in the assembly elections next year.

Anvar’s fate

By gaining around 19,000 votes, Anvar has demonstrated his influence in Nilambur, the constituency which he represented since 2016 as a CPI(M)-backed Independent. In a way, he split the anti-LDF votes, a section of which would have otherwise gone to the Congress kitty.

Anvar has declared that he is in the election fray to defeat “Pinarayism” (style of functioning). The future of Anvar, who is the state coordinator of the TMC, depends on the approach of the Congress, which has so far kept the doors shut on his intention to associate with the UDF.

That Anvar has no clout outside Nilambur will be a factor which the Congress will weigh before taking a decision. Besides, despite Anvar posing a challenge, the Congress managed a win with a sizeable margin.

BJP’s lukewarm approach

BJP candidate Mohan George finished fourth behind the Congress, the CPI(M) and Anvar. The BJP, under its new state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, was reluctant to contest the by-election, claiming that it would not bring any change in the state politics when assembly elections are less than a year away.

In the constituency where 45 per cent of the electorate are Hindus (as per the 2011 census), the party picked a local Christian leader from the regional Christian party, the Kerala Congress. Christians formed a little under 8 per cent of the electorate in the seat.