CENTRAL POINT, TEXAS: Kerr County officials warned of a deadly flood months before flash floods swept through Texas on July 4, killing at least 104 people. In an October 2024 report, they predicted a major flood in 2025, identified high-risk areas, and urged immediate improvements to warning systems.

However, they deferred or abandoned most of the recommended safety measures. When the floodwaters surged, claiming 27 lives at Camp Mystic alone, many residents reported receiving little or no warning. The failure to act has raised serious questions about local and state accountability.

Camp Mystic’s emergency plan was approved just two days before the flood that killed 27 girls and counselors in Texas (Getty Images)

Kerr County officials predicted deadly Texas flood months before disaster

A damning revelation by Daily Mail has exposed that Kerr County officials had foreseen the deadly flooding that devastated the region, months before it occurred, yet failed to implement key safety measures.

In a report published in October 2024, the ‘Kerr County Hazard Mitigation Action Plan’ explicitly warned that a major flood was “likely” to strike in 2025 and “probable” by 2027.

What remains of the living room after flooding is seen in the Holman household on July 09, 2025 in Kerrville, Texas (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

The 220-page document, developed by seven local officials, not only highlighted the growing threat but also pinpointed the specific areas most at risk.

“The local planning team determined it is likely that Kerr County and the participating jurisdictions will experience a flood event in the next year, meaning an event is probable in the next three years,” the report stated.

While officials did not specifically predict the catastrophic 23-foot surge that devastated Kerr County, the October 2024 report clearly warned that future floods could exceed historical records.

The risk assessment stated, “Future worst-case flood events in Kerr County and the participating jurisdictions may meet or exceed previous worst-case 10′ flood depths.”

Nathan Sharpe grieves at the entrance to the Hunt city square on July 09, 2025 in Hunt, Texas (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

The report also addressed the growing impact of climate change, warning that it would likely make flooding more severe and less predictable.

“Climate change may cause river floods to become larger or more frequent than they used to be in some places,” the report cautioned.

It went on to explain that rising global temperatures lead to increased evaporation, which contributes to heavier rainfall and, in turn, more intense river flooding.

Trees emerge from flood waters along the Guadalupe River on July 4, 2025 in Kerrville, Texas. Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas with multiple fatalities reported (Eric Vryn/Getty Images)

Report outlines detailed plan for managing disasters like the Fourth of July Texas floods

Beginning on page 170, the Kerr County report laid out a detailed plan for managing disasters like the devastating July 4 flood. At the top of the list, officials recommended improving the delivery and effectiveness of warning messages. Yet, when floodwaters surged across the county, many residents received no alerts at all, highlighting a massive breakdown in communication.

The report also urged county leaders to remove obstacles that delay safe and timely evacuations during floods. In the aftermath of the disaster, critics have heavily questioned why no evacuation orders were issued in time. Officials had also flagged trailer parks as particularly vulnerable, recommending additional protections, warnings that proved tragically accurate.

A damaged home with debris littered around the exterior sits on the bank Guadalupe River on July 5, 2025 in Center Point, Texas (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

Mobile homes sustained some of the worst damage during the flood. One of the hardest-hit areas was the River’s Edge community in Ingram. There, 27-year-old father Julian Ryan punched through a trailer wall to help his family escape rising water. Though he saved their lives, Ryan died from a severe arm injury before emergency crews could reach him.

A road sign lays among debris after flash flooding tore through the area on July 6, 2025 in Hunt, Texas. Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas with multiple fatalities reported (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

The plan also addressed other natural threats, including wildfires, droughts, winter storms, lightning, and earthquakes. Still, flooding took precedence as the most urgent danger facing the county.

One of the report’s most revealing sections appears on page 182, where a chart tracks progress on key flood mitigation efforts. Officials proposed creating a local flood warning system to reduce the impact of future disasters, but marked the initiative as “deferred.”

Another proposal called for building more storm drains to handle heavy rain and runoff. Officials also delayed that effort.

They recommended reviewing whether homes and structures were built too close to known flood zones. For instance, Camp Mystic, where 27 children and counselors died, sits only 500 feet from the river. The county marked that review as “deferred” as well.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem speaks during a press conference in Kerrville, Texas, on Saturday. KENS

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem addressed the ongoing federal response to the catastrophic flooding in Texas, emphasizing the urgent need for resources, coordination and continued federal support as the search for missing people intensifies.

In addition to ground efforts, federal officials have requested more aviation assets to aid in aerial search and rescue.

“We, just at the request of a previous conversation less than an hour ago … requested more fixed-wing aircraft from the Coast Guard to come and help us,” Noem said. She added many of the aircraft will be equipped with thermal imaging to allow round-the-clock searches.

“Some of the assets that other agencies may offer don’t have that kind of equipment but the Coast Guard does have it so that will be deployed so that the search and rescue efforts don’t stop even when it does get dark at night.”

She reassured Texans FEMA would remain fully engaged and ready to provide additional assistance based on evolving needs from state leadership.

“We’ll continue to stay engaged, and I’ll be here,” Noem said, noting her plans to visit Camp Mystic, where more than 20 girls are still unaccounted for, along with other parts of the community to assess damage and offer support.

“The number one priority now is people,” Noem stated. “(It) is making sure we’re finding people as fast as possible and we’re returning them to their families.”

While damage assessments to infrastructure are ongoing as bridges, roads and power lines have all sustained impact, she said the focus remains on saving lives before turning fully to long-term recovery.

“The state of Texas is amazing in how it responds to disasters,” she said. “You are an example to the nation of getting through these difficult times. But also know that you’re not alone, that you have the entire country’s hearts with you.”

Months worth of heavy rain fell in a matter of hours on central Texas region on the banks of the Guadalupe River.

Flash floods fuelled by torrential rains in the US state of Texas have killed at least 27 people, local officials said, as rescue teams scramble to save dozens of victims trapped by high water or reported missing in the disaster.

Among the missing were about two dozen people listed as unaccounted for at an all-girls Christian summer camp located on the banks of the Guadalupe River, authorities said.

Recommended Stories list of 1 item list 1 of 1 Rising rivers threaten US South and Midwest after severe weather kills 18 end of list

Texas parents frantically posted photos of their young daughters on social media with pleas for information.

Search teams used helicopters and drones through the night to look for victims and rescue people who were stranded. The danger was not over as more heavy rains were expected on Saturday and flash flood warnings and flood watches remained in effect for parts of central Texas.

Authorities have come under intense scrutiny over whether the camp and others in the area received sufficient, if any, warning and whether enough preparations were made.

AccuWeather, a private forecasting company, said it and the National Weather Service sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before the devastation.

The destructive fast-moving waters along the Guadalupe River rose eight metres (26 feet) in just 45 minutes before dawn on Friday, washing away homes and vehicles.

Hundreds of rescuers were deployed around Kerr County as part of a massive search-and-rescue operation, including at least 167 working by helicopter, authorities said.

The National Weather Service declared a flash flood emergency for parts of the county, located in south-central Texas Hill Country, about 105km (65 miles) northwest of San Antonio, following heavy downpours measuring up to 300mm (12 inches) of rain.

Dalton Rice, city manager for Kerville, the county seat, told reporters the extreme flooding struck before dawn with little or no warning, precluding authorities from issuing any evacuation orders.

Advertisement

“The camp was completely destroyed,” said Elinor Lester, 13, one of hundreds of campers at Camp Mystic.

“A helicopter landed and started taking people away. It was really scary.”

On Friday, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said 23 girls were listed as unaccounted for among more than 700 children who were at the summer camp when it was swept by floodwaters at about 4am local time (09:00 GMT).

“That does not mean they’ve been lost; they could be in a tree, they could be out of communication,” he said.

“Some are adults, some are children,” Patrick said. “Again, we don’t know where those bodies came from.”

Patrick read out a message from the director of the summer camp, which had some 750 campers over the July 4 holiday weekend, reporting that it had “sustained catastrophic level of flooding”.

“We have no power, water or Wi-Fi,” the message said.

State and local officials warned against residents travelling to the area, which includes campgrounds dotted along the river, with dozens of roads “impassable”.

Videos on social media showed houses and trees swept away by the overnight flash flood caused by heavy overnight rainfall of 300mm – one-third of Kerr County’s average annual rainfall.

“It’s terrible, the floods,” US President Donald Trump told reporters Friday night. “It’s shocking.”

Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed a disaster declaration to hasten emergency assistance to Kerr and a cluster of additional counties hardest hit by the floods.

Governor Greg Abbot is trying to further gerrymander Texas while his state recovers from some of the deadliest flooding in its history.

On Wednesday, Abbot told state lawmakers to begin the redistricting process as he positions Republicans to maintain control of the House in 2026. This directive has come straight from President Trump, who is desperately urging states to find ways to create more Republican seats under the guise that the current maps are “unconstitutional.”

Abbot’s directive has drawn the ire of leaders across the state—as well as nationally.

“While Texans battle tragic and deadly flooding, Governor Abbott and House Republicans are plotting a mid-decade gerrymander,” Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote Wednesday on X. “They should be modernizing emergency response—not rigging maps.”

Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa described the move as a “blatant partisan power grab.”

“I’ve been disappointed in this governor before. But I’ve never been so thoroughly disgusted,” Hinojosa said. “The governor is so heartless as to do this right now?”

At least 120 people have been confirmed dead in the flash flooding, and at least 170 are still missing at the time of this writing. And while Republicans across the country chide Democrats, calling their legitimate questions around emergency response an attempt to “politicize” the situation, the governor himself is more concerned with politics as usual.