Because of droughts and increasing costs, beef buyers have relied more heavily on imports this year.

United States President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariffs of 50 percent on Brazilian imports could drive up beef prices for US consumers.

Unless the White House delays or reverses course, the tariffs are set to take effect on August 1.

After China, the US is the second-largest importer of Brazilian beef. Brazil is currently the fifth-largest source of foreign beef for the US, and its share has grown in the past year, accounting for 21 percent of all US beef imports.

That surge has been driven by domestic supply challenges, including widespread droughts and rising grain costs. In fact, imports doubled in the first half of this year compared to the same period in 2024 including because of the threat of upcoming tariffs.

Analysts say should the tariff go into place, it will hit importers of ground beef, commonly used in hamburgers, particularly hard.

“They [US beef importers] will either have to pay the higher cost of Brazilian beef or obtain it from other higher-cost sources. That could lead to higher prices for certain beef products, particularly ground beef and hamburger meat. This comes at a time when the US cattle herd is at the lowest level in many decades, demand for beef is strong, and as a result beef prices are up,” David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, told Al Jazeera.

The 50 percent tariff would bring the rate on Brazilian beef to about 76 percent for the rest of the year, Reuters news agency reported, citing livestock analysts.

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Some domestic trade groups, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), have praised the White House for the looming tariffs.

“NCBA strongly supports President Trump holding Brazil accountable with a 50 percent tariff,” NCBA Executive Director of Government Affairs Kent Bacus said in a statement provided to Al Jazeera. “For many years, NCBA has called for full suspension of imported Brazilian beef due to their abysmal lack of accountability on cattle health and food safety. Brazil’s failure to report cases of atypical BSE [a neurological disease affecting cattle] and their history of [foot and mouth disease] is a major concern for America’s cattle producer.

“A 50 percent tariff is a good start, but we need to suspend beef imports from Brazil so we can conduct a thorough audit and verify Brazil’s claims [of safety and health practices].”

In the 2024 election cycle, almost 95 percent of the political action committee representing the NCBA’s donations went to Republican candidates, according to OpenSecrets.

Rising costs

The tariffs come as the US is already facing a decline in domestic beef production and increased reliance on imported beef. There are already other strains on the US beef market because livestock imports from Mexico are at a standstill following new health concerns — the spread of a flesh-eating parasite called a screwworm. At the same time, imports from Brazil were down in June on the back of the 10 percent tariffs the White House imposed in April across all countries while they each negotiated their trade deal with the US.

“Domestic beef producers may benefit in the short term from reduced competition. However, producers are facing high input costs and weather-related challenges that limit their ability to expand quickly,” Ortega added.

Farmers in the US also have the smallest cattle herds in more than 70 years, and production is expected to decrease further by two percent by the end of the year.

Because of pains in domestic supply, imports doubled in the first five months of the year compared to the same period last year. That began to decline last month as a result of the 10 percent blanket tariffs.

Robert Perosa, president of Brazilian Beef Exporters Associations (ABIEC), an industry trade group, told reporters that the new tariffs would make it “economically unfeasible” to continue to export to the US market.

The move will raise costs for restaurants across the US.

“Dramatic tariff increases could affect menu planning and food costs for restaurants as they attempt to find new suppliers,” Sean Kennedy, executive vice president of public affairs at the National Restaurant Association, said in a statement provided to Al Jazeera. “As we have said from the outset, our industry relies on a steady supply of imported goods that cannot be produced here in the US, and we urge the Trump administration to pursue policies that will secure fair trade agreements.”

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Al Jazeera reached out to the largest fast food restaurant chains in the US, including McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s, Sonic Drive-In and Jack in the Box, but none responded.

JBS and Marfrig, two of Brazil’s largest beef producers, also did not reply to a request for comment.

Markets respond

Stock markets have been relatively muted in their response to Trump’s tariff announcements this week. At the market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 0.6 percent, and the S&P 500 is down 0.33 percent for the day. The Nasdaq Composite Index is down 0.2 percent.

JBS, which also has substantial beef production operations in the US, made a $200m investment earlier this year to expand two facilities in the US. The company’s stock is up 0.4 percent for the day despite the challenges the tariffs will pose to its Brazilian beef business. Marfrig is down 3.98 percent for the day, although this comes as the company postponed a shareholder meeting for the second time for an unrelated pending acquisition of a poultry and pork processor.