Tariff Man isn’t chickening out.

Investors knew something important had to happen around July 9, the deadline President Trump set for dozens of nations to make trade deals with the United States — or else. Trump has threatened double-digit “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from most US trading partners unless they make major concessions, such as committing to buy more American stuff.

Trump had already delayed those reciprocal tariffs once, back in April. So a prevailing expectation was that Trump would let the deadline slide again, and maybe again after that, with the reciprocal tariff threat losing its power as it became apparent Trump was willing to brandish the weapon but not actually use it.

That’s not quite what happened. Trump did delay the July 9 deadline, this time until Aug. 1. But he also surprised markets with new tariff threats that interrupted a run of record high closes on Wall Street and sent markets sideways. The overall cost of tariffs Trump has actually imposed, meanwhile, continues to drift higher.

Trump’s latest scheme involves sending letters to various countries telling them what their new tariff will be and then posting the letters on social media for all to see. The new tariffs kicking in on Aug. 1 will range from 20% to 40% for some two dozen countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia. The tariff will be higher for goods transshipped to the United States through a third-party country. Other negotiations are dragging along with Vietnam, India, and the European Union.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

That was the more-or-less expected part.

The unexpected part includes a new 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, which Trump threatened to impose unless the government stops prosecuting former president Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump buddy and political ally. Trump also announced a new 50% tariff on imported copper and said there could be a new tariff on imported pharmaceuticals as high as 200%. Then came another letter saying the tax on some Canadian imports could jump from 25% to 35%. In two more letters published on July 12, Trump brandished 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union.

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Got all that?

Almost nobody does. But the Yale Budget Lab is keeping score, and it estimates that all of the early July changes will raise the effective tax on imports from 15% to nearly 19%. When Trump came into office, the average import tax was just 2.5%.

Bullish investors want to believe that “Trump always chickens out,” the TACO meme that caught on in May after Trump backtracked on some of his tariff threats. But the meme is wrong. If Trump always chickened out, then the average tariff rate would be headed back toward the 3% range, and that’s not going to happen.