Quebecers appear to be in for a sweltering summer, with hotter-than-normal temperatures on the horizon.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) unveiled its seasonal forecast on Tuesday, which shows that most of the country is in for warmer-than-average summer temperatures.

The seasonal forecast doesn’t tell you when exactly you might experience days of extreme heat or heat waves, and that’s why ECCC meteorologist Jennifer Smith says it’s important to stay informed and be prepared.

“When a heat wave hits and lasts several days, it’s important to have a plan,” said Smith.

That can include signing up for alerts to be up to date on weather systems in your area and in case of extreme heat, staying cool and hydrated and taking care of those who are vulnerable.

A map shows the probability of temperatures being above-average in Quebec this summer. (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

Despite the very high probability of a hotter summer, ECCC maps indicate the wildfire weather risk will be on par with seasonal averages for the province.

The risk is greater in Western Canada, where as of May 30, wildfires have burned an area three times bigger than the 10-year average.

Fires burning elsewhere can still impact Quebec with air quality at risk of worsening when plumes of smoke travel away from the source.

To track air quality in your area, you can consult the ECCC’s Air Quality Health Index or wildfire smoke map.

WATCH | What experts are saying about this summer: Expect a hotter than normal summer for Quebec, Environment Canada says Duration 2:03 The weather agency released its summer weather outlook. Experts say in the years to come, Quebec summers are going to get hotter and rainier.

Warmer summer and extreme heat, new normal

ECCC meteorologists stressed that climate change plays a role in seasonal forecasts, with Canada’s average summer temperatures having warmed by 1.8 degrees since national record-keeping began in 1948.

Quebec, like the rest of Canada due to its position in the northern hemisphere, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is warming at a rate that is two times faster than other regions in the world, according to Ouranos, Quebec’s climatology and climate change innovation hub.

What that means is that the province is set to see more days of extreme heat and more heat waves in the near future.

“If we just think of the number of 30 C days, for example, those are expected to increase pretty drastically over the next few decades,” said Ouranos climatologist Chris McCray.

Modelling maps simulating moderate greenhouse gas emissions show Montreal could see an average of 23.5 days with temperatures above 30 C from 2031 to 2060, up from an average of 12 days for the period from 1991 to 2020.

“Because we’ve put … so much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere over the last few 100 years, the warming is already in progress,” said McCray.

And because emissions have not started to decrease on a global scale, McCray said, global and local temperatures are going to continue to increase.

“Unfortunately, those changes at this point are inevitable in the short term,” he said.

Impacts of climate change on health

The warming climate is likely to have a significant impact on public health, McCray said.

“We know heat is a big contributor to cardiovascular issues, people who already have health, physical and mental health issues, those problems can be aggravated and worsened by extreme heat,” he said.

Heat-related deaths in Quebec currently average 470 annually, according to research cited by Ouranos. Projections under a moderate emissions scenario indicate this could double or triple by 2040.

The economic costs linked to heat are already substantial, at an estimated $3.6 billion per year. Ouranos warns these costs could also increase by three to five times under the same scenario.

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, so Quebec is also likely to see an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, which can lead to localized flooding.

McCray said unfortunately, much of the urban infrastructure that exists now was built for a climate that no longer exists.

While in the long term, the solution to reduce the impacts of climate change is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in the short term, “we need to adapt,” McCray said.

Things like planting more trees to reduce urban heat islands, adding more sponge parks and decreasing areas with asphalt and concrete surfaces are all measures that can help.

Hamilton, Burlington, Niagara and surrounding areas are seeing smoke from wildfires in Western Canada impact air quality and that is expected to continue until Friday evening, Environment Canada said.

The weather agency issued a special air quality statement, warning that wildfire smoke “is causing or expected to cause poor air quality and reduced visibility.”

“As smoke levels increase, health risks increase,” read the statement. “Limit time outdoors. Consider reducing or rescheduling outdoor sports, activities and events.”

Environment Canada’s Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) for Hamilton was at 9 of Friday at noon, meaning high risk.

Air quality should improve Friday evening, said the weather agency, as northerly winds come into the area.

Mild symptoms like headaches, eye, nose and throat irritation, or mild cough are common, said Environment Canada, but “more serious” and “less common” symptoms like wheezing, chest pain and severe cough are also possible.

The people more likely to be impacted are those “aged 65 and older, pregnant people, infants and young children, people with an existing illness or chronic health condition, and people who work outdoors,” it added.

Environment Canada says on their website with the AQHI at 9, those at risk should “reduce or reschedule strenuous activities outdoors. Children and the elderly should also take it easy.”

The general population should also consider the same if experiencing symptoms “such as coughing and throat irritation.”

How this week compares to 2023 levels

This week in 2023, Hamilton was also seeing air quality concerns due to wildfire smoke.

Then, parts of Hamilton reached a 10 on AQHI, indicating high risk. The rating was among some of the worst in the province.

This week, on Friday afternoon, Hamilton had an air quality health risk index of 9 or high risk. That number is expected to lower to 7 — still high risk — on Friday night and to 3 — low risk — into Saturday morning.

The weather agency recommends people keep their windows and doors closed and wear a well-fitting respirator-type mask.

A water bomber drops a load on the Nopiming Provincial Park wildfire EA061 east of Bird River, Manitoba, Canada May 29, 2025. (Government of Manitoba)

Hamilton is one of many communities impacted by smoke this week. Wildfires continue to rage in Western Canada, and communities in affected areas and surrounding provinces have been blanketed by thick plumes of smoke, prompting air quality alerts extending into parts of the United States this week.

Smoke conditions in some parts of the U.S. Midwest have become so bad that the air quality has been categorized as “hazardous.”

Exposure to wildfire smoke has been found to cause early death and respiratory issues, says a 2024 report from Health Canada.

Air quality warnings have been issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada throughout Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario. Fifty-three communities in southeastern Manitoba, for example, have received alerts about wildfire smoke causing poor air quality and reduced visibility.

Environment Canada is warning of an “early season heat event” bringing elevated temperatures to most of southern B.C. that will persist from Saturday into early next week.

The weather agency has issued more than 30 special weather statements for the province, saying a ridge of high pressure is bringing temperatures that could reach the low 30s on the coast and the mid-30s inland.

The weather statements span the Lower Mainland, up through the Sunshine Coast, into the Thompson and Okanagan regions of the province’s Interior and through parts of Vancouver Island.

Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid-teens across the south of the province.

A joint statement from the Provincial Health Services Authority and the B.C. Centre for Disease Control said that while the forecast does not constitute a heat warning or extreme heat emergency, the first stretch of high temperatures of the season can lead to people overheating because they aren’t yet accustomed to the heat.

It’s important to monitor for health impacts and consider checking in on neighbours and friends who are at higher risk, such as the elderly, children, people with severe mental illness and those with pre-existing conditions, the statement said.

Environment Canada is asking people to watch for signs of heat illness, including heavy sweating, rash, cramps, fainting and worsening of health conditions.

It is encouraging people to keep their house cool and block the sun by closing curtains or blinds, saying fans alone cannot effectively lower body temperature.

Meanwhile, the province’s SPCA issued a statement warning people to keep animals out of hot vehicles.

Even a few minutes in a hot car can be life-threatening for animals, the agency said, adding its helpline had already received 164 calls this year about such situations, but that number is expected to rise with the temperatures.

As things heat up down south, wildfire smoke has prompted air quality concerns in northeastern B.C., where a number of wildfires are burning.

Environment Canada says smoke could impact residents of northeastern B.C. for the next 24 to 48 hours. It suggests limiting time outside while smoke is heavier.

Special air quality statements and warnings have blanketed central and northern Alberta as smoke from several wildfires moves across the province.

Environment Canada issued air quality warnings for parts of northern Alberta Friday, and special air quality statements for much of central Alberta and the far northeastern portion of the province.

The statement says that wildfire smoke is causing poor air quality and reduced visibility, but conditions are expected to improve later Friday.

Environment Canada says people may experience symptoms such as increased coughing, throat irritation, headaches or shortness of breath. Children, seniors, and those with cardiovascular or lung disease, such as asthma, are especially at risk.

The Air Quality Health Index rating for Edmonton was nine, or high risk, at 1 p.m., on Friday. Conditions in the city were expected to improve in the evening.

When the air quality index surpasses seven, Environment Canada suggests reducing or rescheduling strenuous outdoor activities, especially for children and seniors or those experiencing a cough or irritated throat.

Wildfire smoke is lowering the air quality across much of Saskatchewan on Friday.

Environment Canada has issued a special air quality statement across all of central and northern Saskatchewan, warning that smoke from wildfires could create health risks, especially for those spending a lot of time outdoors. The smoke is worst in east-central Saskatchewan, where an air quality warning is in effect.

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Saskatoon was covered under the air quality statement, which stretched as far south as Outlook and Davidson.

“Smoke from wildfires in northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan is expected to periodically cause poor air quality and localized reductions in visibility Friday,” the weather service said in the statement.

“The smoke may move into several regions of southern Saskatchewan by Friday afternoon and linger Friday night into Saturday.”

Natalie Hasell, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, said the wind is pushing the smoke south.

“The winds in your forecasts are expected to remain out of the north or northwest,” Hasell said.

“There are fires to your north, northwest, northeast, west, east (and) southeast, so there are very few wind directions that will lead to clear air.”

Hasell said Saskatoon can expect quite a bit of smoke over the next 36 hours.

“The concern is for later today and tonight, and Saturday (Regina) could see a very high risk,” she explained.

“There is a cold front where we have some showers and thunderstorms,” she said. “The thunderstorms will probably be more problematic with respect to fire.”

Hasell said thunderstorms could actually make the situation worse.

“They’re defined by lightning, and lightning strikes don’t just hit right under the storm,” the meteorologist explained.

“They can travel sideways and hit an area that is not going to get any rain and therefore cause more fires.”

Environment Canada said eye, nose and throat irritation are common symptoms from exposure to smoke.

“More serious but less common symptoms include wheezing, chest pains or severe cough,” the statement noted. “If you think you are having a medical emergency, seek immediate medical assistance.”

People 65 and older are more succeptible to health issues caused by smoke, along with pregnant women, infants, young children, those with preexisting or chronic health conditions, and anyone working outdoors. Environment Canada adivsed those groups to “reduce or reschedule strenuous activities outdoors,” and seek medical help for any serious symptoms.

“When indoors, keep windows and doors closed as much as possible,” Environment Canada added.

“If you must spend time outdoors, a well-constructed, well-fitting and properly worn respirator type mask (such as a NIOSH-certified N95 or equivalent respirator) can reduce your exposure to the fine particles in the smoke. Even though exposure may be reduced, there can still be risks to health.”

The latest updates on the air quality alerts can be found on Environment Canada’s website.

The Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency is set to provide an update on the wildfire situation in the province at 1:30 p.m. on Friday. 650 CKOM and 980 CJME will carry the update live.

–with files from 650 CKOM’s Will Mandzuk