USA Followed By China, UK, Japan and Germany Takes Lead: Global Business Travel Spending to Now Reach Over One And A Half Trillion Dollars In This Year, Amid Economic Uncertainty And New Trade Policy Risks

The global business travel sector is poised for significant growth, with total spending projected to reach $1.57 trillion in 2025. This marks a 6.6% year-over-year increase, despite ongoing economic challenges and trade uncertainties. The United States, China, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, India, South Korea, France, Italy, and Australia are expected to be the top spenders, accounting for a significant portion of global business travel expenses. While the pace of growth has moderated due to geopolitical and economic risks, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, with global spending forecast to surpass $2 trillion by 2029. This shift is driven by changes in corporate travel behavior, evolving trade patterns, and an increasing reliance on technology to optimize business travel.

Whereas, the 2025 forecast does suggest significant growth, it’s also a cautious forecast, with its underpinning being challenged via a background of inflationary pressures, global trade wars and the potential for slow-down within major markets. Global trade tensions, in particular, have been a significant drag on expectations for travel spending, resulting in a downward revision from earlier forecasts.

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Despite the headwinds, the global business travel market will exceed $2 trillion by 2029, though one year later than forecasted prior. This sustained growth will be the result of evolving corporate travel sentiment, trade movements and increasing demand for more intelligent, affordable travel solutions by smarter businesses.

Economic Uncertainty and its Impact on Global Business Travel

The forecasted growth for 2025 is a result of several key factors, including the ongoing economic recovery post-pandemic and the global rebound in trade and investment activities. However, these positive trends are tempered by the continued economic risk driven by geopolitical issues, trade policy uncertainty, and inflation.

2025 was originally forecasted to grow by 10.4% year-over-year, but that forecast was revised down to 6.6% growth as trade policy uncertainty and economic turbulence continued. Some of these downside risks have put the brakes on growth; numbered among the latter are disruptions to supply chains, cost pressures from inflation, and policy risks, mainly associated with global trade disputes. Growth forecast for 2026 is also lowered to 8.1 percent, down from 9.2 percent, suggesting the recovery would come, but not as fast as previously thought.

It underscores that international trade tensions have emerged as a leading risk for business travel spending going forward. While every government tries to steer their way through difficult trade negotiations and policy making, the lack of clarity on tariffs and cross-border trade rules may hamper the recovery of the travel sector.

Regional and Sectoral Variance in Growth Projections

The business travel growth estimates do not break down evenly across all regions and sectors. Although worldwide spending will hit $1.57 trillion, how that money is spread across geographies and industries will vary widely.

The 15 leading markets in terms of business travel spending in 2025 are expected to account for a combined $1.31 trillion. The United States and China will also remain leaders in that area, with the United States projected to lead accounting for $395.4 billion and China with an estimated $373.1 billion. Collectively, the two will make up 58% of total business travel spending worldwide in 2025. Next major markets as that are in the top five, are also Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

India, South Korea and Turkey are expected to grow more quickly than the rest of the world, providing further evidence of the growing relevance and role these emerging nations will play in the global business travel market. Conversely, spending in business travel in Spain and the Netherlands, and possibly other European markets, will grow less or fall slightly as a result of the slowing European economy and disrupted trade.

Sector-Specific Trends in Business Travel Spending

Different industry sectors will experience varying growth in business travel spending, with some sectors facing greater risks and others benefitting from ongoing economic changes. For example, manufacturing and wholesale trade—which account for nearly a third of global business travel spending—are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions and the impact of global supply chain disruptions. These sectors may face slower growth or even declines in spending if geopolitical risks escalate further.

In contrast, sectors like professional services, arts and entertainment, and information technology have shown resilience, with some industries even surpassing pre-pandemic spending levels. These sectors are expected to continue their strong growth, as demand for services in these industries increases alongside the ongoing digital transformation of the global economy.

The mining and information and communication sectors are expected to experience some of the strongest growth in business travel spending in the coming years, driven by technological advancements and increased investment in global infrastructure projects. Conversely, agriculture faces a weaker outlook due to shrinking access to export markets and ongoing disruptions to trade policies.

Business Travel Sentiment: Optimism Despite Challenges

Despite the uncertainty facing the global economy, business travel remains business as usual for consumers around the world, according to a new survey of more than 7,300 business travelers. The report also found that 86% of travelers continued to find value in their trips, with 74% of respondents taking between one and five trips in the last year. In fact, over 80% of business travelers are traveling as much or more than they did pre-pandemic, demonstrating a high degree of confidence in the future of business travel.

Travel spending is increasing, too. Average travel spending has also risen, with the average spending per trip hitting $1,128 USD, compared to $834 USD last year. Moreover, over 67% of travelers leverage expense management systems to cover travel expenses, while 64% have begun to use mobile wallets for their corporate expenditure – demonstrating an increasing demand for intuitive, digital-first payment processes.

Looking to the Future of Business Travel

The global business travel outlook is largely shaped by evolving corporate strategies and the increasing reliance on data-driven decision-making. With more companies focusing on cost efficiency and sustainable travel practices, the business travel landscape is undergoing significant shifts. As a result, businesses are embracing AI-powered solutions, digital booking tools, and automated expense management systems that reduce administrative overhead while improving compliance.

Overall, the future of business travel appears resilient, with growth expected to continue, albeit at a moderate pace. The global business travel market is forecast to reach $2 trillion by 2029, supported by the steady recovery in travel volume, strategic industry investments, and the expansion of emerging markets.

Conclusion

The global business travel spending forecast for 2025—$1.57 trillion—indicates ongoing recovery for the industry despite economic risks and trade tensions. Even if it may take longer to flourish as initially envisaged, the long-term prospects are good and we expect to see the pace of growth ramping up as geopolitical matters are resolved. For the business traveller, this means a time when more seamless travel and data-driven products and services are increasingly transforming the way we book and conduct travel business, making it clear the sector will continue to be a driving force in the global economy.

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Denver, CO – Global business travel spending is projected to reach a new historical high of $1.57 trillion USD in 2025. This represents a moderate year-over-year growth rate of 6.6%, as global spending is expected to slow this year due to trade tensions, policy uncertainty and economic pressures. A rebound to 8.1% growth is projected for 2026, while long-term forecasts remain clouded by geopolitical and economic volatility.

Despite near-term challenges, global spending is projected to surpass $2 trillion by 2029 ─ one year later than anticipated a year ago ─ driven by structural shifts in trade, investment, and corporate travel behavior.

This is according to the latest edition of the GBTA Business Travel Index (“BTI”) Outlook – Annual Global Report & Forecast, released today by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) at the annual GBTA Convention in Denver.

The GBTA BTI™ report is a comprehensive five-year forecast on business travel spending covering 72 countries and 44 industries and includes insights from 7,300+ global business travelers. In its 17th edition and made possible in partnership with Visa, this latest forecast reflects a continued recovery in nominal terms but signals growing headwinds from global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.

As we thoughtfully anticipate reaching a new high in business travel spending this year, the outlook is steady ─ but the road ahead is more complex. Trade policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and shifting global supply chains are reshaping how and where companies travel. This latest forecast reflects the resiliency of business travel and our industry as well as the acknowledgment of the risks ahead. Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA

According to the GBTA BTI, spending is projected to grow in 2027 by 6.4% and 6.3% in 2028—modestly higher than forecast a year ago. The pace and trajectory of this growth, however, will depend heavily on the resolution—or escalation—of global trade tensions.

Global Trade Tensions Impact Growth Momentum

The latest forecast reflects a moderation from double-digit gains of the past two years. Trade policy uncertainty has emerged as a key risk leading to downward revisions in business travel growth projections for 2025 (from 10.4% projected a year ago, to 6.6% now) and 2026 (from 9.2% projected a year ago, to 8.1% now).

Spending figures for 2024 were also adjusted in this latest forecast – spending rose to $1.47 trillion, slightly below the previously projected $1.48 trillion. While this still marked a new high, real inflation-adjusted spending remains 14% below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring a slower recovery in travel volume.

Impacts Diverge Among Regional Markets and Industry Sectors

In the 2025 forecast, the top 15 markets for business travel spending represent $1.31 trillion. The two top markets – the U.S. ($395.4 billion) and China ($373.1 billion) – together represent 58% of that total.

The U.S. is projected to reclaim the top spot this year followed by China (which led the list in 2024 and 2023), Germany, Japan, and the UK.

India, South Korea, and Turkey are among the fastest growing among the top 15 markets, while Spain and the Netherlands are forecast to have little to no growth or a slight decrease.

Business travel spending across industries will also continue to vary:

Trade-sensitive sectors such as Manufacturing (which accounts for nearly one-third of global business spending) and Wholesale Trade face heightened risks if trade tensions further escalate.

Service sectors like Arts & Entertainment and Professional Services have exceeded pre-pandemic benchmarks, with some growing travel spend by over 20%.

Looking ahead, Mining and Information and Communication are each expected to post the strongest growth in business travel spend, while Agriculture faces the weakest outlook amid shrinking access to export markets.

Global Business Traveler Sentiment Remains Strong

A global survey of over 7,300 business travelers across 33 countries in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East reveals continued evolution and confidence in the value of traveling for work:

Business travel is seen as valuable—86% rate their trips as worthwhile. Primary trip purposes cited vary by region, with training and conferences topping the list globally.

Most travelers (74%) took between one and five trips in the past year, and over 80% say they are traveling for work as much or more than before 2019.

Average trip spending rose to $1,128 USD (up from $834 in the 2024 survey).

Expense systems are common (67% use them), and comfort with artificial intelligence booking tools is growing, especially in Asia Pacific (78%).

Corporate card access rose to 69%, led by North America (73%). However, only half of cardholders are required to use them. Mobile wallet use is also up, with 64% adoption globally and 72% in Asia Pacific.

As corporate travelers increasingly expect seamless, mobile-first payment experiences, it’s no surprise the report found notable usage of corporate credit cards through mobile wallets. At Visa, we’re focused on enabling this shift, offering secure, flexible digital payment tools that meet travelers where they are, and help organizations modernize their expense processes. Edward Galvin, Vice President and head of North America B2B Commercial Payments, Visa

Download the 2025 Business Travel Index Outlook report Executive Summary here.

GBTA members can exclusively access the full GBTA BTI™ report on the GBTA Hub here.

Watch the 2025 GBTA BTI Forecast launch video featuring Suzanne Neufang, CEO, GBTA; Jon Gray, Principal, Rockport Analytics and Michael Brown, Principal U.S. Economist, Visa.

To learn more about GBTA Research or inquire about GBTA BTI™ data for 2000-2029, visit the GBTA webpage or email [email protected].

About GBTA

The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) is the world’s premiere business travel and meetings trade organization headquartered in the Washington, D.C. area and serving stakeholders across six continents. GBTA and its 8,000+ members represent and advocate for the $1.48 trillion global travel business and meetings industry. GBTA and the GBTA Foundation deliver world-class education, events, research, advocacy and media to a growing global network of more than 28,000 travel professionals and 125,000 active contacts. For more information visit gbta.org.

About the GBTA Foundation

The mission of the GBTA Foundation, the US 501c3 charitable arm of the Global Business Travel Association, is to help the global business travel industry create a positive impact and better future for people and the planet. The GBTA Foundation focuses on the strategy and execution of GBTA’s global sustainability programs, supporting initiatives related to climate action; diversity, equity and inclusion; and other talent-related topics via education, research and advocacy. For more information visit gbtafoundation.org.

Debbie Iannaci

GBTA Global Communications, PR & Research

+1 305 301 7057

GBTA