Taiwan’s main opposition protested on Friday ahead of unprecedented recall elections targeting its lawmakers that could tip the balance of power to President Lai Ching-te’s party.

Supporters of Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are seeking to unseat 31 Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers who they accuse of being pro-China and a threat to national security.

The KMT, which advocates closer ties with Beijing, controls parliament with the help of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and has slammed the recall effort as undermining the self-ruled island’s democracy.

Two dozen KMT lawmakers could lose their seats on Saturday in a legal process that allows the public to oust elected officials before the end of their term.

Another seven face recall elections on August 23.

Thousands of KMT supporters waving Taiwanese flags rallied in the rain on Friday night in a last ditch effort to oppose the recall.

The vote was a chance to “express the strongest protest” against Lai, former president Ma Ying-jeou told the crowd.

Started by civic groups this year, the recall campaign has dominated politics, headlines and social media feeds for months.

The DPP lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections that swept Lai, who is detested by Beijing, to the presidency.

Since then, the KMT and TPP have joined forces to stymie Lai’s agenda and cut the government’s budget.

A series of opposition bills, including reforms expanding parliament’s powers, sparked brawls in the legislature and massive street protests.

– ‘Unprecedented’ –

The DPP needs at least 12 KMT lawmakers recalled to give it a “short-lived legislative majority”, risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said, giving that outcome “a 60 percent probability”.

Lai’s party would then need to flip six seats in by-elections this year to secure control of the 113-seat parliament, which Eurasia Group said would be an “uphill climb”.

If it succeeds in the recalls, the DPP would likely use its temporary control of the purse strings to reverse the opposition’s budget cuts and increase defence spending, analysts said.

The scale of the recall campaign was “unprecedented” in Taiwan, Dafydd Fell, a Taiwan politics expert at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, told AFP.

For a KMT lawmaker to lose their seat, the number of votes in favour of recalling them must exceed those against and also be more than 25 percent of the total number of registered voters in the electorate.

A KMT bid to have 15 DPP lawmakers recalled failed.

With turnout critical, DPP supporters have been standing outside subway stations, in public parks and at food markets for weeks urging people to vote “yes”.

Thousands of people gathered in the rain near the Presidential Office Building on Thursday in support of the recalls.

KMT legislators fighting for their political lives have also taken to the streets to persuade voters to oppose the recall.

“We… sincerely ask all our fellow countrymen and friends to vote tomorrow and use our votes to oppose the recall and restore Taiwan to normal,” KMT lawmaker Hung Mong-kai, who faces potential recall, said Friday.

With many recall votes happening in KMT strongholds, Fell said it would be difficult for the DPP to win control of the parliament.

“Even if some of the KMT legislators are recalled, other KMT politicians might win the seats back in the resulting by-elections,” he said.

– China looms large –

National Taipei University political scientist Liu Chia-wei said the vote had become an “ideological duel” between the DPP and KMT, as China loomed large.

Taiwan’s top policy body on China said this week there was “visible evidence” Beijing was trying to “interfere” in the election process.

China insists Taiwan is part of its territory and has ramped up military and political pressure on the island to press its claim of sovereignty.

Lai’s government has repeatedly warned of the growing threat from Chinese espionage, disinformation and cyberattacks.

Public opinion on the recalls is divided.

Aaron Yu, 32, said he supported the campaign because “most of the bills passed by KMT lawmakers are pro-China”.

But restaurant worker Sharon Chen criticised it as a waste of money, saying voters had already made their decisions in last year’s elections.

“Just because a certain party lost, they can’t accept the result and now want to recall someone the people chose, I think that’s just senseless,” the 65-year-old said.

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For the DPP, flipping just six seats could allow it to break the deadlock in the hung parliament and regain majority control of the legislature, a prospect the KMT has warned could pave the way for “one-party dominance”.

But analysts suggest such a scenario is unlikely.

Frank Lin, a political observer at Taipei University of Marine Technology (TUMT), estimates that only a “single-digit” number of the 24 KMT legislators facing recall votes on Jul 26 are at real risk of losing their seats.

He said his assessment of ground sentiment suggests most legislators targeted by the recall are in “safe” constituencies with solid party support, making it unlikely that voters’ turnout will reach the level needed to unseat them. Though, a few lawmakers could face enough voter mobilisation to put their seats in jeopardy, he added.

“The real test will come in the by-elections … I expect perhaps two or three seats could flip to the ruling party, but that alone wouldn’t give the DPP a simple majority,” he told CNA.

“The DPP’s broader hope is to leverage those gains to sway some TPP lawmakers, which could then finally break the current deadlock in parliament.”

Voter turnout will be crucial in determining the outcome, said James Chen, an assistant professor of diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University in Taiwan.

“The (number of) core supporters who initiated the recalls is largely fixed,” he told CNA, adding that if turnout is high, it may favour the KMT as it suggests broader voter mobilisation to reject the recalls.

Thousands of people gathered in the rain near the presidential office building on Thursday in support of the recalls.

KMT legislators fighting for their political lives have also taken to the streets to persuade voters to oppose the recall. Their supporters are expected to be out in force on Friday night for a final protest before polling stations open the next day.

GEOPOLITICAL SQUEEZE

Analysts say Taiwan’s “Great Recall” campaign is being driven by a mix of domestic discontent and growing geopolitical uncertainty.

On the regional front, Taiwan has been increasingly caught in the crossfire of great power rivalry.

Tensions have deepened under United States President Donald Trump’s return to the White House as his administration adopts a more inward-looking, transactional approach to foreign policy – one that has left Taipei navigating uneasy ground between a hostile Beijing and an unpredictable Washington.

Trump has yet to personally voice public support for Taiwan since taking office, while his administration has imposed tariffs of up to 32 per cent on Taiwanese goods and pressed Taipei to buy more US weapons, noted Lim Tai Wei, an East Asian affairs observer and professor at Soka University.

“To a certain extent, the ruling DPP is feeling the pressure,” Lim said. “If Washington treats Taiwan transactionally while relations with Beijing remain frozen, Taipei finds itself squeezed from both sides.”

During the “Great Recall” campaign, the KMT has repeatedly argued that Trump is primarily interested in Taiwan for its semiconductor giant, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest and most advanced chipmaker.

In March, Trump successfully lobbied for TSMC to commit an additional US$100 billion to its US operations, including building five new “cutting-edge” fabrication plants on American soil.

The deal has fueled criticism, particularly from Taiwan’s opposition, that Taipei is “surrendering” its most valuable asset to Washington in exchange for security commitments – guarantees the US has not formally offered.

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Threats from China and anger over legislative deadlock are dominating Taiwan’s political discourse as residents rally for and against a campaign to recall two dozen opposition Nationalist Party lawmakers in polling to be held on Saturday.

Thousands of supporters of the independence-leaning ruling Democratic Progressive Party turned out in the heart of the capital Taipei on Thursday to hear from civil society activists, writers, musicians and others who support the recalls, which could potentially give the party, also known as the DPP, a majority in the legislature.

The DPP won last year’s presidential election, but came up short in the legislature.

Since then, the China-friendly Nationalists, also known as the KMT, and their allies have sought to hobble the power of the executive and blocked key legislation, especially the defense budget.

That has been seen as undermining both Taiwan’s hard-won democracy and its ability to deter China’s threat to invade the island it considers its own territory. Those concerns prompted activists to campaign for recall votes in the districts where Nationalists were seen as most vulnerable, and they succeeded in 24 districts where votes are scheduled this weekend.

At least 25% of registered voters in the district must take part, with supporters outnumbering those opposed. If successful, a special election will be held to fill the seat, in which all parties can compete.”

The KMT and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party together hold a majority in the parliament with 62 seats, while the ruling DPP holds 51 seats.

The KMT on Thursday sent some of its best known politicians, including the mayor of Taipei, the speaker of the legislature and the party chairman, out to urge voters to oppose the recall. It also planned a rally in Taipei on Friday. The KMT calls the measure a power grab by the DPP and a threat to multi-party democracy.

Perhaps more than any issue, China has loomed over the campaign, with both its officials and state media dismissing the recall effort as a further futile attempt to preclude what they call the inevitability of Beijing’s annexation of Taiwan, either by military or peaceful means

In Taiwan, it has brought out differences between Taiwanese who favor pursuing the current path and those who seek accommodation with Beijing. China-friendly politicians have been accused of selling out Taiwan for accepting trips to the mainland and meetings with Chinese politicians, while they defend themselves as keeping open lines of communication in light of Beijing’s refusal to interact with the DPP.

The recall campaign — Taiwan’s first — was prompted by anti-KMT groups alarmed by the party’s closeness with China, corruption and the KMT’s refusal to work with President Lai Ching-te’s administration.

They first needed to gather signatures from 10% of voters in each district, targeting legislators seen as particularly vulnerable or controversial and under China’s influence. Each campaign seeking to unseat a single legislator required a huge organizational effort, limiting the number of KMT lawmakers targeted.

The KMT is primed to contest any special elections that must be called within six months, raising the possibility that they could win back the seats, and the DPP, although enlivened by the campaign, could still remain in the minority.

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AP’s Taiwan coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/taiwan

Polling stations in Taiwan are set to open on Saturday as the island holds a landmark vote in a sweeping recall campaign that could tilt control of its legislature back to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and test whether anti-Beijing sentiment remains the defining force in Taiwanese politics.

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The unprecedented mass recall vote – set to begin at 8am Saturday, mainly targeting lawmakers from the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) – has triggered intense political debate and could shape the island’s trajectory ahead of next year’s local government polls as well as the election of the island’s leader in 2028.

Twenty-four legislators – all members of the Beijing-friendly KMT – face recall votes organised by pro-DPP civic groups with strong backing from the ruling party. Another seven KMT lawmakers will face recall votes on August 23. All have been accused by recall organisers of “selling out Taiwan to China”.

Supporters of the recall campaign gather on Tuesday outside a Taipei metro station shouting “Great recall, great success”. Photo: AFP

“The vote on Saturday is not just about legislative control. It is a litmus test for how far the ‘resist China, protect Taiwan’ campaign can go,” said Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei-based think tank.

Beijing has denounced the recall campaign as political manipulation. Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te was “using democracy as a cover for dictatorship” and “suppressing the opposition by any means”.

Those remarks have been seized upon by DPP supporters as proof of the KMT’s alleged closeness to mainland China. Beijing, which regards Taiwan as a part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, has intensified military pressure on the island since Lai took office in May last year and provoked Beijing with “separatist” and pro-independence remarks.

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The United States, like most other countries, does not recognise self-governed Taiwan as independent. However, it is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo and is committed to supplying the island with weapons for defence.

Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party is in a moment of crisis as nearly two-thirds of its legislators risk losing their posts through a mass referendum.

Starting this weekend, voters across 31 districts in Taiwan will weigh in on whether they want to keep or remove their members of parliament.

The “Great Recall”, as it has been dubbed locally, is the largest vote of its kind in Taiwan’s history and, depending on the results, could cost the KMT its majority coalition in the country’s legislature.

The outcome will set the tone for Taiwan’s domestic politics for the next three years and also shape the ability of President William Lai Ching-te’s government to act on key issues, such as defence spending.

When will the recall election take place?

On Saturday, eligible voters can participate in recall votes for 24 KMT legislators, followed by a second round of voting for seven KMT legislators in late August.

The recall has been called following a wave of successful petition campaigns earlier this year. Under Taiwan’s election laws, organisers must secure signatures from 10 percent of a district’s registered voters to hold a recall vote.

For a recall vote to succeed, 25 percent of registered voters in each district must participate, and the recall must receive more votes in favour than against.

If voters choose to recall a legislator, a by-election must be held within three months.

The KMT’s traditional stronghold is in the north of the country and notably around the capital city of Taipei, but recall votes will be held across Taiwan this weekend.

The KMT won 52 out of 113 seats in the legislature in 2024, and with the Taiwan People’s Party and two independent legislators, holds a 62-seat majority coalition.

That coalition has been strong enough to block the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which holds 51 seats, and stall the agenda of the country’s DPP President Lai during his first year in office.

Can the recall succeed?

Taiwan typically has high voter turnout during major elections, but recall votes are much more of a wildcard, said Lev Nachman, an expert in Taiwanese politics at National Taiwan University.

“Our prior experience should tell us that these should not pass. However, we’ve never seen mobilisation work like this at recalls before,” he told Al Jazeera, citing the widespread involvement of common people. “We are in a bit of unprecedented times.”

Ho Chih-yung, Deputy Director-General of the KMT’s Culture Communications Committee, told Al Jazeera the recall campaign had created a “national election-like atmosphere” that would test the mobilisation and engagement of Taiwan’s major political parties.

The weather could also tip the scales, he said, as a tropical storm is passing north of Taiwan, and the bad weather may discourage the KMT’s older voter base from going out to vote.

Why is the recall vote international news?

The vote will determine if Lai will be a lame-duck president for the next three years, and whether he has the ability to carry out key defence and foreign policy initiatives, Nachman said.

“Unfortunately, it’s a really big deal because every question that foreign policy people have is contingent upon whether these recalls are successful or not successful,” he said.

The issue carries global significance due to Taiwan’s contested political status and the threat of a future conflict involving China in the Taiwan Strait.

“The classic Taiwan problem is that it’s not just that society is split, it’s that society is split, and the clock is ticking about whether or not there’s going to be a war over this place,” he added.

“Everything here is infinitely more existential.”

Supporters of the recall movement gather in Taipei, Taiwan, on July 19, 2025 [Ann Wang/Reuters]

Why are voters targeting the KMT?

Despite its success in the last election, picking up 14 seats, the KMT has angered voters and even alienated traditional supporters by trying to expand legislative powers and targeting President Lai’s budget.

The KMT majority in the legislature was able to freeze or cut 207.5 billion New Taiwan dollars (then worth $6.3bn) from Lai’s 2025 budget – impacting everything from Taiwan’s submarine and drone programmes to its Council of Indigenous Peoples.

The budget fight was headline news across Taiwan, but it piqued international interest when the KMT targeted $3.1bn in defence spending.

Brian Hoie, a non-resident fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub and a frequent commentator on Taiwanese politics, said some of the cuts angered a cross-section of voters and groups traditionally aligned with the KMT, such as farmers and Indigenous voters.

“The KMT has done very badly and angered all these random demographics by cutting the budget,” he said.

“That was just very unstrategic,” he added.

What about the China factor?

The KMT is one of the oldest political parties in Asia, but a generational divide over Taiwan’s relationship with China is challenging its longstanding position in Taiwanese politics. Some voters believe that the party has been co-opted by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing.

The CCP has threatened to one day annex Taiwan by peace or by force, and Taiwan’s two main political parties offer different approaches for how to respond to Beijing’s threat.

President Lai’s DPP has taken a more outspoken approach by advocating for Taiwan on the international stage and ramping up defence spending, while the KMT follows a more conciliatory approach that favours ongoing dialogue with China.

Fears surrounding China have in the past unseated some of the KMT’s most prominent members, such as party whip Fu Kun-chi, who controversially led a delegation of lawmakers to Beijing last year at a time of significant political tension in the Taiwan Strait.

What does the KMT say?

Party member and former KMT spokesperson Ho said the recall supporters were abusing a system designed to remove individuals deemed unfit for holding their posts for serious reasons, such as corruption.

“This ‘mass recall’ campaign is not driven by the individual performance of KMT legislators, but is instead a blanket attempt to unseat opposition lawmakers across the board,” Ho said.

“To advance this effort, the DPP has deliberately framed the KMT as ‘pro-China’ and accused it of ‘selling out Taiwan’, a tactic designed to inflame ideological divisions and mobilise its base through fear and hostility, thereby increasing the likelihood that the recall votes will pass,” he said.

A senior KMT party member also told Al Jazeera that voters may be looking for an outlet for their frustrations amid a rising cost of living and the economic stress resulting from United States President Donald Trump’s trade war and threat of tariffs on Taiwan.

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 32 percent on the island-nation’s export-driven economy. Over the past six months, the New Taiwan dollar has appreciated 11 percent, impacting the bottom line of thousands of small and medium domestic manufacturers who must compete with foreign goods becoming cheaper for Taiwan’s consumers as their dollars go further in terms of spending power.