In December 2024, an asteroid was discovered that, according to estimates made at the time, had a probability of approximately 1% of colliding with Earth in 2032. However, after further investigation, some scientists came to different conclusions, raising this percentage to 3.1%, thus considering it a real threat to our planet.

Little by little, after new studies, that figure decreased until it reached 0.004%. Although the danger was moving away from Earth, its satellite, the Moon, does not seem to be so lucky. In fact, a team of astronomers led by Andrew Rivkin, a scientist at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, United States, said that the chances of the asteroid hitting the Moon “have always existed”.

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“Eran menos por aquel entonces porque la Tierra era un objetivo mas grande”, Rivkin explained. In this way, the probability of colliding with the Moon is now around 4%. In the event of an impact, they report, it would be a spectacular phenomenon, something that only happens every 5,000 years and could be visible from Earth.

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According to new estimates from NASA, thanks to data collected by the James Webb Space Telescope, in the event of an impact, new lunar material would be generated that could reach our planet, even causing a meteor shower on Earth.

“It would be visible from Earth and even new (not dangerous) lunar meteorites would arrive, but there is no guarantee,” said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defense Office. “The result would be an observable new lunar crater,” he added.

NASA also clarifies that, in the event of a collision, this would not alter the lunar orbit; however, a crater almost a kilometer in diameter could be generated. “If it impacts the Moon in 2032, it will be the largest impact in approximately 5,000 years,” they explain.