The ongoing hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas have reached a critical impasse, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump to hint at potential military escalation while exploring “alternative options” to secure the release of approximately 50 hostages held in Gaza. The stalled talks, coupled with mounting international pressure over the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip and domestic unrest in Israel, have made the current stalemate unsustainable.

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Negotiations Collapse Amid Rising Tensions

Just days ago, a hostage deal seemed imminent, but Hamas’s response to the mediators’ latest proposal led to the withdrawal of Israeli and American negotiation teams from Qatar. The breakdown has intensified pressure on both Israel and the U.S., driven by global outcry over Gaza’s deteriorating humanitarian situation, Trump’s public commitments to end the war and free the hostages, and growing frustration within Israel over the lack of progress.

In response, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted its first wartime airdrop of humanitarian aid into Gaza and announced localized “humanitarian pauses” to facilitate aid delivery, marking a shift in policy. Additionally, a power line was connected to operate a desalination plant in the Strip. These steps aim to alleviate international criticism, but they do little to address the core issue of the hostages.

Netanyahu’s Dilemma: Political and Strategic Challenges

The Israeli government acknowledges that the current situation offers diminishing returns. The prolonged stalemate increases the risk of errors, civilian casualties in Gaza, and losses among IDF soldiers, with no clear path to freeing the hostages or achieving a decisive military victory. Public opinion in Israel is increasingly intolerant of the deadlock, which delivers neither the hostages’ return nor significant military gains, only a steady stream of casualties.

Netanyahu faces a complex dilemma. A change in strategy could destabilize his coalition, particularly if far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich resign over concessions. A military escalation, such as a siege or full occupation of Gaza, might appease the far-right but risks alienating the international community, especially the U.S. Conversely, a comprehensive deal to release all hostages in exchange for ending the war could collapse the government if Hamas remains in power, as the far-right opposes such an outcome. Hamas, meanwhile, is unlikely to agree to a deal that weakens its position by relinquishing the hostages without guarantees.

Trump’s Role and U.S. Frustration

The solution may lie in Washington rather than Jerusalem. Trump has vowed to end the war and secure the hostages’ release, but his administration is growing frustrated with the lack of progress. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the need for “serious rethinking,” while Special Envoy Steve Witkoff spoke of exploring “alternative options.” Trump’s blunt remarks, suggesting that Hamas “wants to die” and that it’s time to “finish the job,” signal a potential shift toward endorsing escalation.

The U.S. finds itself diplomatically isolated alongside Israel, with cracks emerging even among Trump’s MAGA base. The failure to secure even a partial hostage deal, combined with the ineffective U.S.-backed GHF aid fund, has fueled accusations of deliberate starvation in Gaza, amplified by Hamas’s disinformation campaign.

Possible Scenarios and Their Implications

Several options are under consideration to break the deadlock. Each carries significant risks and potential benefits:

1. Military Escalation

Trump and Netanyahu have hinted at intensifying military operations, potentially encircling Gaza City or fully occupying the Strip.

*Advantages*: Could pressure Hamas into concessions and weaken its infrastructure, satisfying calls for decisive action in Israel.

*Disadvantages*: Risks the hostages’ lives, as demonstrated by the deaths of six hostages—Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Ori Danino, Almog Sarusi, Carmel Gat, and Alex Lobanov—in a tunnel last year. It could also exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and erode international support, requiring a costly, long-term IDF presence.

2. Improved Humanitarian Aid

Increased aid access, as seen in recent IDF airdrops and humanitarian pauses, aims to reduce global criticism.

*Advantages*: Could improve Israel’s and the U.S.’s image and create stability to soften Hamas’s stance.

*Disadvantages*: Does not address the hostage issue and may be seen as a concession to Hamas, potentially strengthening its control over Gaza.

3. Comprehensive Hostage Deal

A deal to release all hostages in exchange for ending the war is a possibility, though Israel insists on dismantling Hamas’s rule, and Hamas may resist losing its leverage.

*Advantages*: Would secure the hostages’ release and end the war, easing international pressure.

*Disadvantages*: Politically untenable for Netanyahu’s coalition and unlikely to be accepted by Hamas without major concessions.

4. Ceasefire Without Hostage Release

A permanent ceasefire could stabilize Gaza but is unpopular in Israel.

*Advantages*: May reduce the humanitarian crisis and create space for future talks.

*Disadvantages*: Seen as abandoning the hostages and could bolster Hamas’s position.

5. Commando Rescue Operations

Bold rescue missions, like last year’s “Operation Arnon” that freed four hostages, are an option but face heightened Hamas security measures. Hamas has threatened to kill all of the hostages if they supsect IDF ops in the areas in which the hostages are being kept.

*Advantages*: Could free some hostages and boost public support.

*Disadvantages*: High risk to hostages, as seen in the deaths of Sahar Baruch and others during failed rescues or mistaken IDF fire.

6. Diplomatic Pressure

The U.S. could push for renewed talks through Qatar and Egypt, possibly with a “take it or leave it” proposal.

*Advantages*: A compromise could secure hostages’ release and ease tensions, aligning with public and hostage families’ preferences.

*Disadvantages*: Success depends on both sides’ willingness to compromise, which is uncertain.

7. Targeting Hamas Leadership Abroad

The U.S. could pressure Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey to expel Hamas leaders or allow Israel to target them.

*Advantages*: Could force Hamas to negotiate out of fear for its leadership.

*Disadvantages*: Risks straining ties with mediators and does not guarantee hostage release, as past eliminations have shown.

A Path Forward?

A combination of military, diplomatic, and humanitarian efforts may be necessary, though each option risks the hostages’ lives, regional stability, and the international standing of Israel and the U.S. Hamas’s fear of rescue operations and the hostage families’ demand for a comprehensive deal reflect the urgency of the situation. The Trump administration must balance pressuring Hamas with maintaining public support, all while avoiding an escalation that could deepen the crisis or lead to a humanitarian catastrophe.

Hamas has signaled new flexibility in hostage negotiations, Arab media reported Sunday, shortly after Israel launched daily humanitarian pauses and approved key infrastructure projects in Gaza in a shift in policy aimed at easing civilian suffering.

Saudi outlet Al-Hadath reported that Hamas had informed mediators of its readiness to “resolve disputed issues” in the negotiations. The terrorist group’s stance follows growing international pressure and a change in tone from Israeli officials. According to unnamed sources, the shift could help restart talks this week.

2 View gallery Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya ( Photo: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90 )

The development comes as the IDF confirmed it had approved a plan — through the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories, or COGAT — to allow the United Arab Emirates to begin constructing a water pipeline from a desalination plant in Egypt to the al-Mawasi area of Gaza. COGAT is the Defense Ministry body responsible for coordinating civilian affairs in Palestinian territories.

The pipeline, expected to serve some 600,000 people, will operate independently of Israel’s existing water supply lines. Equipment for the project began entering Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing following security inspections, and construction is set to begin within days, officials said.

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Separately, the IDF, in coordination with COGAT and the Israel Electric Corporation, connected a key power line to Gaza’s southern desalination facility. The upgrade will increase water output from 2,000 cubic meters to 20,000 cubic meters per day, aiming to meet the needs of roughly 900,000 residents.

The military also announced the launch of a daily 10-hour humanitarian pause, from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m., including in Gaza City — the first such measure in over a year. The decision, made in coordination with the United Nations and international aid groups, applies to areas where Israeli forces are not currently operating, such as al-Mawasi, Deir al-Balah and parts of Gaza City.

2 View gallery People gather near a pile of empty plastic water containers outside a damaged structure in Gaza amid severe shortage of clean water ( Photo: REUTERS/Stringer )

To facilitate aid delivery, secure routes have been designated from 6 a.m. to 11 p.m. for UN and NGO convoys carrying food and medical supplies. The IDF said it would “continue supporting humanitarian efforts on the ground, alongside ongoing operations against terror groups in Gaza.”

A message distributed to Gaza residents warned: “For your safety — do not return to the areas marked in red on the map,” referring to active combat zones. The move comes despite internal criticism from some Israeli officials, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who opposed the humanitarian pause.

CAIRO | Xinhua | U.S. President Donald Trump departed the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Friday afternoon, concluding a lucrative four-day Gulf tour, which had also taken him to Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Despite expectations that Trump’s visit could help calm the conflict in Gaza and ease regional tensions, the U.S. president instead focused his Middle East visit primarily on economic gain, securing multi-trillion-dollar investment commitments from the three Gulf countries.

Analysts believe that, by sidestepping the region’s conflict zones and prioritizing business deals, Trump’s tour signals a potential pivot in U.S. Middle East policy.

PROFITABLE JOURNEY

Massive commercial deals defined Trump’s Middle East tour.

From the outset of his second term, Trump signaled that his first major foreign trip would emphasize promoting U.S. economic interests. On his inauguration day in January, Trump stated he would choose Saudi Arabia as his first destination “if Saudi Arabia wanted to buy another 450, or 500 billion (dollars’ worth of U.S. products).”

Upon arrival in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, Trump secured an investment agreement with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, locking in 600 billion U.S. dollars in investments into the United States.

Among the deals signed was “the largest defense sales agreement in history — nearly 142 billion dollars,” said a White House statement. Under this agreement, the United States will supply Saudi Arabia with “state-of-the-art warfighting equipment and services from over a dozen U.S. defense firms.”

In Qatar, Trump cut a deal with the Gulf nation to generate “an economic exchange worth at least 1.2 trillion dollars.” He also secured commercial deals worth over 243.5 billion dollars, including the sale of 210 U.S.-made Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777X jets to Qatar Airways, valued at 96 billion dollars.

Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (2nd R) and U.S. President Donald Trump (2nd L) witness the signing of a series of deals at the Amiri Diwan in Doha, Qatar, on May 14, 2025. (Amiri Diwan/Qatar News Agency/Handout via Xinhua)

In the UAE, the final stop of the trip, Trump announced 200 billion dollars in bilateral commercial agreements, bringing “the total of investment agreements in the Gulf region to over 2 trillion dollars,” the White House noted.

Trump’s trip to the Middle East “is all about money,” said Rodger Shanahan, a Middle East analyst at the Lowy Institute. “The Gulf states are a source of foreign investment for the United States of a size that makes for good announcements.”

“VAGUE ROLE” IN EASING TENSIONS

Despite hopes that Washington would leverage its special ties with Israel to promote a ceasefire and reduce regional tensions, the United States has yet to take meaningful steps toward resolving Middle East conflicts.

During Trump’s visit, Israel continued large-scale airstrikes on Gaza, killing dozens daily. In Yemen, Houthi forces and Israel engaged in ongoing retaliatory attacks, while frequent Israeli military strikes against Lebanon resulted in casualties.

Smoke billows following Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip, as seen from Israel’s southern border with the Gaza Strip, on May 16, 2025. (Photo by Jamal Awad/Xinhua)

Although the United States claimed to aim for Middle East peace, “the reality on the ground contradicts the U.S. stated goals,” said Mostafa Amin, an Egyptian researcher on Arab and international affairs. “The killings … by Israel during Trump’s visit raise serious questions about the sincerity of any U.S. peace efforts.”

Further disappointment among Arab nations came from Trump’s inflammatory remarks on occupying Gaza. At a roundtable with Qatari officials in Doha, he suggested the United States should “take” Gaza and reshape its future.

“I think I’d be proud to have the United States have it, take it, make it a freedom zone,” he said before reporters. “Let some good things happen, put people in homes where they can be safe, and Hamas is going to have to be dealt with.”

“He referenced peace only in the context of hostage releases,” observed Amjad Abu al-Ezz, a political science professor at the Arab American University in the West Bank. “There was no mention of a ceasefire, de-escalation or even basic humanitarian corridors (in Gaza).”

Trump did not hesitate to criticize Iran during his trip, calling it “the most destructive force” in the Middle East and accusing it of fueling regional instability. His remarks drew sharp rebukes from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, further heightening already tense U.S.-Iran relations.

“Although Trump’s visit yielded some economic gains, the United States has yet to present clear solutions to the underlying regional tensions,” said Ali Johar, a UAE political analyst.

By focusing solely on its economic interests and overlooking the concerns of regional populations, Washington appears to be drifting into a “vague role” in addressing the area’s conflicts, Johar noted.

POTENTIAL POLICY SHIFT

Trump’s trip not only overlooked Arab world concerns but also appeared to sideline Israel’s sensitivities.

Unlike his first presidential trip to the Middle East in 2017, Trump’s latest visit excluded Israel from his itinerary. On the eve of his arrival, reports surfaced that the United States had even held direct talks with Hamas, culminating in the release of American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander.

People watch a live stream of the release of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander in a square in Tel Aviv, Israel, May 12, 2025. (Photo by Jamal Awad/Xinhua)

“Skipping Israel was seen as a reflection of the deteriorating ties between the U.S. administration and the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” noted an Al Jazeera analysis.

While in the UAE, Trump acknowledged that “a lot of people are starving in Gaza,” a rare statement interpreted as a sign of his growing frustration over Israel’s prolonged military campaign.

Analysts suggest Trump, known for his America-first, pragmatic stance, is losing patience with Israel.

“For decades, Israel has leveraged its special relationship with the United States to serve as a gatekeeper to Washington,” the Times of Israel wrote in an opinion piece, observing that many in Israel “worried that the best partner they’ve ever had in the White House had lost interest.”

This concern is not unfounded. Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, said the Trump administration would rather “swim in a stream of Gulf investments than get bogged down in the region’s enduring problems.”

Apparently, the United States is shifting its focus and policy priorities toward the Gulf region and the economic field, Kheir Diabat, a professor in the International Affairs Department at Qatar University, observed.

“While economic cooperation is certainly beneficial for the region,” Diabat added, “what the United States should prioritize now is taking its responsibility and helping restore stability to the Middle East.” ■

Live Updates

On the 69th day of the Israel-Hamas war, a senior Hamas official floated the idea of the Palestinian militant group possibly coming to terms with recognizing the State of Israel, marking a significant turnaround in the group’s language when referring to Israel’s existence.

The loved ones of remaining hostages in Gaza suffered another hard blow after Israel confirmed the deaths of two more hostages while in Hamas captivity.

Washington has reportedly delayed selling thousands of U.S.-made rifles to Israel over fears related to the ongoing violence in the West Bank.

Israel’s cabinet blocks Mossad proposal to restart hostage deal talks in Doha: Report

US doesn’t think Israel’s campaign against Hamas should stop at this point in the war

Houthis attack Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in southern Red Sea: CENTCOM

90% of Palestinians want Abbas to resign: Wartime poll

Hamas’ Jabalia fighters ‘maybe on the verge of breaking down’: Local media

Israel asked Egypt to mediate new potential hostage-ceasefire deal: Report

Iran warns of ‘extraordinary problems’ for possible Red Sea coalition

Houthi minister issues warning against ships sailing towards Israel

Intense fighting continues across the Gaza Strip after Israel suffered its biggest personnel loss in a single operation during a multi-round ambush by Hamas in the northern Gaza neighborhood of Shuja’iyya.

Hamas leader and chief of the Palestinian terror group’s political bureau Ismail Haniyeh warned Wednesday that a future being planned for Gaza without Hamas is a delusion.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a unit of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) that the Israeli army will continue fighting “to the end” until Hamas is destroyed even amid continuing pressure from the international community for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday met with the families of Americans abducted by Hamas who are still being held in the Gaza Strip along with more than 130 other hostages.

The war that started on Oct. 7 when Hamas militants stormed into Israel and killed more than 1,200 people stems from the decades-long history of the Israel-Palestine conflict that has drawn attacks targeting Israel from Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

The live update has ended.

JERUSALEM — When a pair of drone-fired missiles slammed into an apartment building in south Beirut on Tuesday, killing a top militant leader and his lieutenants, it appeared to mark a shift in Israel’s war against Hamas. For three months, Israel has pressed a full-scale military invasion of Gaza, leveling much of the Strip and killing more than 22,000 people, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, in its pursuit of the militants who planned and carried out the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. To date, it had not acted on another stated war aim: targeting the heads of Hamas “wherever they are.”

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Now, as the conflict enters its fourth month, Israel has apparently made good on that threat, risking a wider war along its border with Lebanon even as it begins to draw down troops in Gaza for the first time.

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Military leaders said that the partial withdrawal was possible now that attacks have weakened Hamas in the north and that it would allow thousands of reservists to return home and go back to work. Washington also has been placing pressure for months on Israel to pull back from what President Biden has described as “indiscriminate bombing” and reduce the devastating civilian death toll.

The events come amid growing concerns about the war’s economic toll in Israel and the gradual return of protests and domestic political intrigue. While few analysts see an end to the violence in Gaza, they detect an evolution.

“We are on to Stage 3,” former Israeli deputy national security adviser Chuck Freilich said, referring to the phase of warfare expected to follow the initial response to the October attacks and the sustained air and ground war inside the enclave. “I think we’re moving into a new mode, something closer to what the U.S. has been advocating from the beginning.”

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Israel’s military has said for months it is ready to fight a two-front war, having massed troops and tanks along the Lebanese border and evacuated at least 70,000 residents. Israel Defense Forces units have frequently exchanged fire with Hezbollah, the Iranian-aligned Lebanese militant group, yet the strikes and counterstrikes had never approached Beirut — until Tuesday.

Israel declined to confirm or deny any role in the assassination of Saleh Arouri, an exiled Hamas official who acted as a liaison with Iran and Hezbollah. But he was on the nation’s list.

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“Without doubt, this was the most significant assassination of any senior Hamas official since the war began on October 7,” Palestinian affairs expert Avi Issacharoff wrote Wednesday in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

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While Israel says it has killed a number of Hamas commanders and officials inside Gaza, Yehiya Sinwar, believed to be the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack, and other top leaders are still at large.

Lebanese and international officials scrambled Wednesday to tamp down Hezbollah’s expected retaliation. To date, the group has resisted entreaties from Hamas to fully enter the war. Israeli officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said they were hoping Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah would show restraint given that none of his officers were killed in the strike.

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“There is a carrier there. We hope it is enough,” said one of the Israeli officials, referring to the presence of a U.S. carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean.

Nasrallah warned of “a response and punishment” in a speech Wednesday but gave few clues about how his fighters would respond.

Israeli residents in the northern port city of Haifa were advised to have plans for sheltering during an attack. Military analysts said the drawdown of troops in Gaza would probably allow for more resources to go toward Lebanon.

“We are highly prepared for any scenario,” IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said after Arouri’s killing.

On Tuesday in Eilon, a kibbutz one mile south of the Lebanese border, Israeli artillery was launched every few minutes toward what the IDF said were “terrorist targets.” Hezbollah antitank missiles were intercepted — and sometimes fell — in the emptied villages.

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Across the north, local security squads have been training for what they believe is an impending war. Dotan Razili, a resident of Eilon who is serving as a reserve soldier there, said the evacuations have allowed the IDF to operate freely in the area, firing from agricultural fields.

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“We are getting drawn into a war we didn’t ask for,” he said.

The assassination in Lebanon was widely hailed in Israel, although some advocates for the estimated 133 Israelis still held captive in Gaza said they worried that the attack would derail talks for another hostage exchange.

“The [government] is currently motivated by a sense of revenge,” Carmit Palti-Katzir, whose brother Elad is being held as a hostage, said in an interview on Israeli radio. “But I’m saying, for God’s sake, there are living people there.”

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The IDF said last week it was pulling up to five brigades from the northern Gaza Strip, marking a potential shift from widespread bombing to more-targeted raids by troops based outside the enclave. Yet Israeli officials have said repeatedly that the fighting was likely to continue for months.

The sound of bombs and shelling echoed through the southern Gazan city of Khan Younis on Wednesday, where eyewitnesses told The Washington Post that fighting remained as intense as ever. Ambulances raced back and forth throughout the day carrying the dead and the wounded, according to Hussam Kurdieh, a displaced civilian from Gaza City who is sheltering at Nasser Hospital.

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“People here have grown accustomed to the grim spectacle of bombardment,” he said. “However, the daily struggle revolves more around securing food, water and essential necessities.”

In Israel, though, the war no longer feels so all-consuming, and citizens have begun to find room for broader political debates. On Monday, the country’s high court reversed a vote by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to strip the court of key judicial review powers, a ruling celebrated by his critics as a win for Israeli democracy.

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And the anti-government protests that rocked the country for most of last year, but were put on hold after Oct. 7, have made a return.

On Saturday, crowds in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem chanted for new elections amid pent-up anger at Netanyahu, who is widely blamed for failing to prevent Hamas’s attack and has seen his support plummet in public polling.

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“We’re seeing a new phase; people are coming back onto the streets,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University. “Now the people at the front of the protests are the families of hostages, the families of killed soldiers, the reservists.”

Splits are increasingly visible within the emergency war cabinet in which Netanyahu shares power with his political rival, former IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz, among others. Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have declined to appear with Netanyahu at some recent news conferences. Both have expressed more openness to the ideas pushed by Biden for a postwar government in Gaza that relies on a restored Palestinian Authority, a notion that Netanyahu and the more extremist members of his coalition have dismissed.

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Gantz, whose popularity has soared, has said that politics and investigations into the failures of Oct. 7 should wait until the war eases. As some troops withdraw from Gaza, political observers are watching closely for any sign that he might be ready to make a move.

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Gantz could trigger new elections by persuading five members of the coalition, many of whom have criticized Netanyahu, to join a no-confidence vote.

“The minute Gantz felt like he could leave the war cabinet, that snowball would start rolling,” Talshir said. “That is beginning to feel more possible as the situation in Gaza is stabilizing.”

“Of course,” she added, “if we have a second front with Hezbollah, it would all change again.”