Trump speaks with Putin amid global flareups
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Forget the G7. Now it’s the G6 versus Trump.
The other economies face an effective U.S. tariff rate of 12 to 16 percent, the Atlantic Council calculates. The tariffs could snap higher as soon as July 9, making the summit the last realistic chance to do a deal at the highest level, face to face. Three G7 members — Germany, France and Italy — are still in the firing line as members of the EU.
The other economies face an effective U.S. tariff rate of 12 to 16 percent, the Atlantic Council calculates, the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
While the U.K. has struck a provisional trade deal with Trump, three G7 members — Germany, France and Italy — are still in the firing line as members of the EU, which functions as a common trade bloc. Japan, the other member of the club, is on the higher end of the scale because of the elevated share of autos in its exports to the U.S.
The tariffs could snap higher as soon as July 9 — making the summit the last realistic chance to do a deal at the highest level, face to face.
“G7 is a practical and important natural deadline and depends greatly on U.S. bandwidth to respond on tariffs given all other talks,” said one Canadian diplomat, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the state of talks with the United States.
Agenda setting
As leaders sit down in the posh mountain resort of Kananaskis on Monday, their first of four sessions will focus on exactly those trade concerns.
Trump’s national security adviser says Zelensky ‘welcome back’ to WH — under this condition
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is welcome back at the White House “any time,’’ National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said Sunday. Waltz appeared on CNN’s “State of the Union” to rebuke Zelenski for unloading on Russia during the now-infamous shouting match that erupted in the Oval Office. “What we made clear was that [negotiations] could not proceed, at least for now,” Waltz told CNN. The US wants to see Ukraine show a commitment toward peace before bringing leader Volody myr Zelenky back to the White house, he said. The extremely testy public exchange between President Trump and Zelensky last week sent shockwaves around the world. The Ukrainian leader was welcomed in London for an emergency security summit Sunday, but has declined to apologize to the US for the incident. The U.S. has sought to move in the direction of positioning himself as a neutral intermediary of sorts between the two warring countries.
Waltz, 51, appeared on CNN’s “State of the Union” to rebuke Zelensky, 47, for unloading on Russia’s history of aggression during the now-infamous shouting match that erupted between President Trump and the Ukrainian leader in front of the cameras in the Oval Office on Friday.
“What was so, I think, stunning to all of us in the Oval Office was that it was not clear Zelensky was going to go to negotiations at all, that he would ever be able to negotiate with Putin,” Waltz said.
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3 National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said Sunday that the US wants to see Ukraine show a commitment toward peace before bringing leader Volodymyr Zelensky back to the White House. CNN
“What we made clear was that [negotiations] could not proceed, at least for now,” Waltz said. “When President Zelensky is ready to truly engage for peace, he’s welcome back any time.”
Waltz was in the Oval Office on Friday when Zelensky, Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly feuded over the war in Ukraine.
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Roughly 40 minutes into their exchange, Vance prodded Zelensky to engage in diplomacy to end the war.
“What kind of diplomacy, JD, you are speaking about?” Zelensky shot back after rehashing how Kremlin tyrant Vladimir Putin has previously violated agreements with Ukraine.
Vance, 40, later called Zelensky “disrespectful,” and the Ukrainian leader was booted from the White House. Zelensky had been expected to sign a mineral-rights agreement during the visit to help pay the US for its military aid to Ukraine, but ultimately, that never came to pass.
3 The extremely testy public exchange between President Trump and Zelensky last week sent shockwaves around the world. AFP via Getty Images
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After the flareup of tensions, Zelensky repeatedly declined opportunities to issue an apology during a subsequent interview on Fox News’ “Special Report” with Bret Baier.
Waltz, on Sunday, ducked a question about whether Zelensky needs to apologize to Trump in order to ease tensions with the White House.
A chorus of critics, including many Democrats, accused Trump and Vance of ambushing Zelensky during the Oval Office spat.
“I want to address directly that this was some type of ambush,” Waltz said. “It is absolutely false. We had negotiated the minerals deal in the weeks prior. It was difficult, but it was done and finalized and ready to be signed in the East Room.”
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Zelensky has called for security guarantees with the signing of the deal, ahead of more detailed negotiations with the Russians.
3 By sharp contrast, Zelensky was welcomed in London for an emergency security summit Sunday. Getty Images
Waltz stressed that it wasn’t clear to the Trump administration that “Zelensky was ready to negotiate in good faith towards an end to this war.”
“You can’t kind of trash the other side going, litigating, through the history of this conflict if we’re going to bring both sides to the table,” Waltz said. “Coming to the Oval Office, with the body language, the shaking of head … we found it incredibly disrespectful.”
Trump, 78, has sought to move in the direction of positioning himself as a neutral intermediary of sorts between the two warring countries, alarming both Ukraine and many European countries.
Throughout most of the bloody war, which marked its three-year anniversary last month, the US had been steadfastly on Ukraine’s side, given that Russia invaded the country.
The Trump administration and Russia have discussed efforts to normalize relations between the US and Kremlin amid the push to end the conflict.
“This war needs to end, and that’s going to take concessions on territory. That’s going to take Russian concessions on security guarantees. That’s going to take all sides coming to the table,” Waltz said without elaborating further on the specific concessions he’d like to see from Russia, which has taken over parts of Ukraine during the struggle.
US and China slash tariffs as trade war cools
The de-escalation does not affect tariffs ranging up to 25 percent that Trump imposed on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods during his first term. It also does not roll back the 25 percent “sectoral” tariffs that Trump has imposed on autos, steel and aluminum. Some other tariff increases that President Joe Biden imposed, such as on electric vehicles, also are not affected.
The de-escalation does not affect tariffs ranging up to 25 percent that Trump imposed on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods during his first term, leaving a wide range of goods with effective tariff rates of either 37.5 percent or 55 percent.
Fulsome agreement
It also does not roll back the 25 percent “sectoral” tariffs that Trump has imposed on autos, steel and aluminum, U.S. officials said. Some other tariff increases that President Joe Biden imposed, such as on electric vehicles, also are not affected.
In a separate interview on CNBC, Bessent said the two sides may use the “Phase 1” trade deal that Trump negotiated during his first term as the “starting point” for negotiations. That pact called on China to buy an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods in 2020 and 2021, but Beijing fell well short of the goal.
“I would imagine that in the next few weeks, we will be meeting again to get going on a more fulsome agreement,” Bessent said on CNBC.
The remaining 30 percent tariff on Chinese goods from Trump’s second term reflects a 10 percent “reciprocal” baseline tariff that Trump imposed on all countries on April 2 and a 20 percent tariff that he imposed earlier this year to pressure China to do more to stop the flow of precursor chemicals that are used to make fentanyl.
Trump’s Gulf gamble: Oil, conflicts, and opportunities in a high-stakes visit
US President Donald Trump will embark on a high-profile visit to the Gulf on May 13. The itinerary includes stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar. Trump is expected to pursue initiatives in energy, security, and economic cooperation. The region is no longer content to be seen as the world’s energy hub alone; its ambitions now span digital innovation, green growth, and global influence. To remain a trusted and valuable partner, the U.S. must evolve its engagement strategy—offering not only promises but a visionary blueprint for shared prosperity and long-term stability, writes John Defterios, a senior fellow at the Royal College of Defence Studies and Tactics. The visit comes as Washington tries to develop a new nuclear deal with Tehran, and Gulf leaders will seek reassurance that this outreach won’t compromise their security, Defterio writes. The Middle East’s simmering conflicts form a tense backdrop to the visit. Trump will need to balance the US desire for affordable fuel with respect for Saudi economic goals.
The welcome in Riyadh will be more than ceremonial: Saudi Arabia is the linchpin of Trump’s Gulf tour. On May 14, Trump will join heads of all six GCC states at a summit in the Saudi capital. From Riyadh, Trump will head to Doha for talks with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, then to Abu Dhabi to meet UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
But Trump’s Gulf visit is more than a diplomatic tour; it is a pivotal opportunity to reimagine US–Gulf relations for a new era. The region is no longer content to be seen as the world’s energy hub alone; its ambitions now span digital innovation, green growth, and global influence. To remain a trusted and valuable partner, the United States must evolve its engagement strategy—offering not only promises but a visionary blueprint for shared prosperity and long-term stability.
Energy diplomacy: Oil on the table
Oil production will feature prominently in Trump’s talks, as energy prices tie directly into both global economics and domestic politics. Trump has drawn a link between high inflation in the United States and expensive oil, vowing to ask Saudi Arabia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to “bring down the cost of oil.” Oil producers seemed to be trying to pre-empt such a request with this week’s announcement of another production increase, which caused oil prices to drop. Will this be enough for Trump? He will need to balance the US desire for affordable fuel with respect for Saudi economic goals, including ambitious domestic projects funded by higher oil prices. Any public statements on oil will be closely watched for signs of compromise. Energy talks may even address renewables and climate adaptation, a newly important topic for Gulf states.
Confronting regional conflicts
The Middle East’s simmering conflicts form a tense backdrop to the visit. Containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be a top priority. Trump’s visit comes as Washington tries to develop a new nuclear deal with Tehran, a move quietly backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Gulf leaders will seek reassurance that this outreach won’t compromise their security. Another pressing issue is Gaza. Trump pointedly is not visiting Israel—a sign that without progress toward a Gaza cease-fire or hostage deal, such a stop would yield little. Instead, Qatar and Egypt continue to work on brokering a cease-fire and easing the humanitarian crisis.
Yemen’s war, where a fragile cease-fire now offers hope, will also come up—Trump can reinforce Gulf-led peace efforts by lending US support. From Yemen’s tentative peace to Syria’s uncertain future, Gulf partners are bearing more responsibility for regional crises, and US backing can help them succeed. Each of these challenges underscores the importance of US-Gulf cooperation in resolving conflicts, as Washington and its Gulf allies strive to coordinate strategies and realign on the responsibilities of peace-making.
Investment and economic opportunities
Economic statecraft is at the heart of Trump’s Gulf agenda. The region’s deep pockets and sovereign wealth are a magnet for a US president eager to spur investment and job growth back home. Trump will seek major new investments from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE into US infrastructure, energy, and technology ventures. In this transactional diplomacy, big numbers matter—and reports suggest that Trump is hoping to secure additional investment deals. Visible Gulf capital flows would allow Trump to claim wins for the US economy.
Beyond oil and real estate, today’s focus includes emerging industries. Cooperation in artificial intelligence and advanced technology is on the agenda, aligning with Gulf states’ ambitions to become tech hubs. Expect announcements of joint tech funds or research centers. Defense deals are another pillar of the economic relationship. On the eve of the trip, the United States approved a $3.5 billion sale of advanced air-to-air missiles to Saudi Arabia, a signal that security cooperation (and the hefty contracts that come with it) will feature alongside business deals. By the end of the tour, Trump will aim to unveil a slate of agreements projecting a narrative that US-Gulf ties are translating into tangible economic benefits.
Despite headline-grabbing Gulf pledges, the numbers tell a cautionary tale. The UAE’s vaunted ten-year, $1.4 trillion investment commitment is enormous. However, this commitment lacks any clear roadmap, and such long-term promises face serious headwinds amid global economic volatility. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s promised $600 billion (over four years) investment push represents an implausibly high share of the country’s economy. Riyadh’s finances are already stretched by Vision 2030 mega-projects like the city of NEOM, forcing the government to recalibrate and prioritize domestic spending. With the kingdom contending with turbulent growth forecasts and persistent political strains (not least the fallout from the war in Gaza), a sustained influx of Saudi capital into the United States is increasingly in doubt.
Recalibrating bilateral relationships
Each stop on the trip reflects a recalibration of US ties with a pivotal Gulf partner. In Saudi Arabia, Trump will renew official ties with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after having kept his relationship with Riyadh strong during his time out of office. A similarly reassuring tone is expected in Abu Dhabi, where the UAE’s leaders seek confirmation of enduring US support even as they hedge with other partners. The stop in Doha highlights Qatar’s importance as a US ally, host to a major airbase and a mediator in regional crises. Broader strategic issues will weave through these bilateral talks. With China and Russia also courting the region, Trump’s visit is a chance to reassert US influence amid shifting alliances.
As Trump prepares for his high-stakes visit to the Gulf, it is essential that his administration makes the most of this opportunity. Beyond familiar conversations about oil and security, this visit can—and should—mark the beginning of a broader, smarter partnership. Here are four ways Trump and his team can seize the moment.
Stabilize energy markets, embrace climate adaptation: Trump will ask Gulf producers to help moderate oil output to keep global prices in check. Yet to make this more than a one-note exchange, Trump should propose joint US–Gulf initiatives focused on clean energy transitions and climate resilience. By supporting Gulf investments in hydrogen, carbon capture, and renewable energy, the United States can demonstrate that its energy ties are evolving with the times—making both economies more resilient and forward-looking. Prioritize conflict mediation: Washington’s long-standing alliances in the Gulf are grounded in shared security interests. Trump should leverage the considerable trust he enjoys with Gulf leaders to press for meaningful progress in Yemen’s fragile peace process and the war in Gaza. A joint US–Gulf conflict resolution framework could institutionalize cooperation, ensuring both swift responses to flare-ups and sustained support for reconstruction and peacebuilding, helping to stabilize a region too often trapped in cycles of crisis. Bolster economic ties through innovation: Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy is well known, but this trip offers a chance to push economic ties into new, forward-looking areas. Encouraging Gulf sovereign wealth funds to channel investments into US infrastructure and tech startups would deliver immediate economic benefits. Yet deeper gains lie in establishing joint research ventures in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and next-generation industries. This form of digital diplomacy could position both sides as global innovation leaders, fostering a tech-driven alliance for the twenty-first century. Strengthen cultural bridges: To humanize what is often seen as a transactional relationship, the United States should double down on cultural diplomacy. Arts collaborations, sports exchanges, and interfaith dialogues can soften perceptions and deepen trust between societies. By championing such initiatives, Trump can underscore that US–Gulf ties are not confined to boardrooms and defense pacts but extend into the everyday fabric of life. Nurturing people-to-people connections is as strategic as any formal agreement.
If Trump can look beyond the predictable and embrace a more diversified, future-oriented approach—one that ties oil and security to innovation, youth, and culture—he can transform this trip from a standard diplomatic handshake into a legacy-defining pivot. The sands of the Gulf are shifting fast. To stay grounded, the United States must not just renew its ties—but reinvent them for the decades ahead.
Racha Helwa is the director of the empowerME Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.
Further reading
Image: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman looks on during a group photo together with other heads of state participating in the One Water Summit in the capital Riyadh on December 3, 2024. Photo by Ludovic Marin/Pool/ABACAPRESS.COM
Trump court turmoil strengthens EU hand in tariff talks
The European Commission’s wait-and-see approach to Trump’s tariffs is paying off, analysts say. On Wednesday and Thursday, two separate courts destroyed the legal basis of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs on some 60-odd countries and the EU. An appeal in the first case reinstated the tariffs — at least while the legal process drags on. The case might ultimately end up in front of the Supreme Court.
“This hopefully means that we can get a more constructive approach and not just a unilateral request of concessions, which we just can’t accept,” Benifei added, referring to American demands that tech, food and product safety regulations be curbed.
As the twists and turns of the trade war play out across the global stage — with one EU diplomat quipping that the situation is “too unpredictable for hot takes on how this affects negotiations” — it looks more and more like the European Commission’s wait-and-see approach to Trump’s tariffs is paying off, analysts say.
On Wednesday and Thursday, two separate courts destroyed the legal basis of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs on some 60-odd countries and the EU. | Pool photo by Chris Kleponis/EFE via EPA
“The case for shrugging off these tariffs becomes stronger,” said senior policy fellow Agathe Demarais at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The Commission can essentially “wait for Trump to change his mind, have a court strike down the tariffs or let Trump see the U.S. economy sink,” she said.
The EU executive, which leads on trade policy for all 27 countries, has been preparing a tariff retaliation package that would hit around €116 billion worth of U.S. exports to the EU, while also repeatedly offering a zero-for-zero tariff deal to Trump.
“I think they’re doing all the right things: remaining calm, steady, professional, bureaucratic,” Demarais said. “Negotiations and retaliation all take time and energy, which the EU could spend better elsewhere.”