Israeli air power reigns over Iran, but needs US for deeper impact
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Israeli air power reigns over Iran, but needs US for deeper impact
Israel has shown its military and intelligence pre-eminence as its warplanes have crisscrossed the Middle East, hitting Iranian nuclear installations, missile stockpiles, scientists, and generals. But experts say Israel will struggle to deal a knock-out blow to deeply buried nuclear sites without the U.S. joining the attack. Israel launched its campaign on Friday, saying Tehran was on the verge of building a nuclear bomb – something Iran has always denied seeking from its uranium enrichment program. Israel’s assault bears echoes of last year’s devastating offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, during which Israel wiped out the Tehran-aligned group’s top command – including its leader Hassan Nasrallah – within the first days. Israel issued an evacuation warning of Tehran, saying a post on X that it planned to target the “Iranian regime’s military infrastructure” in the capital. Israel has been refuelling over Syria – a bastion of Iranian influence until Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December. Israel is now operating over Syria with “near-total freedom”
Item 1 of 3 Smoke rises following an Israeli attack on the IRIB building, the country’s state broadcaster, in Tehran, Iran, June 16, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Summary Israel declares air superiority over Iran, Netanyahu calls it a ‘game-changer’
Israeli warplanes refuel over Syria, showing freedom of action
Analyst says Israel able to act with impunity over Iran, but strategic success needs more than air power
Speed and scale of Israeli strikes caught many off guard, analyst says
JERUSALEM, June 17 (Reuters) – Israel’s command of Iranian air space leaves few obstacles in the way of its expanding bombardment , though it will struggle to deal a knock-out blow to deeply buried nuclear sites without the U.S. joining the attack, experts say.
While Iran has responded with deadly missile strikes on Israeli cities, Israel has shown its military and intelligence pre-eminence as its warplanes have crisscrossed the Middle East, hitting Iranian nuclear installations, missile stockpiles, scientists, and generals – among other targets.
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On Monday, several Israeli officials declared the establishment of air superiority over Iran. The military likened its control of Iranian skies to its command of the air space over other arenas of conflict with Iran-aligned enemies, such as over Gaza and Lebanon – where Israel continues to bomb at will.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday Israel’s control of Iranian air space was “a game-changer”. National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said pilots could operate “against countless more targets” over Tehran, thanks to the destruction of “dozens and dozens” of air defence batteries.
But even as Israeli officials laud the damage done so far, some publicly acknowledge Israel won’t be able to completely knock out Iran’s nuclear program – unless the U.S. joins the campaign with strategic bombers that can drop ordnance with the potential to penetrate sites buried deep underground.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, said Israel had achieved “quite a lot of operational and tactical successes … But translating that into a strategic success will require more than what air power can deliver”.
Krieg said even the heaviest U.S. bunker-busting bombs might struggle to penetrate Iran’s deepest sites – in the event President Donald Trump decides to join the attack – suggesting special, commando-style forces might be needed on the ground.
Nevertheless, “Israel can act with impunity now, and they can do that in the way they did in it in Lebanon”.
Israel launched its campaign on Friday, saying Tehran was on the verge of building a nuclear bomb – something Iran has always denied seeking from its uranium enrichment program.
While the Iranian military says it has downed Israeli warplanes, Israel denies this and says no crews or planes have been harmed during their missions to Iran, a return journey of some 3,000 km (2,000 miles) or more.
A senior Western defence source said Israeli warplanes have been refuelling over Syria – a bastion of Iranian influence until Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December. Israel is now operating over Syria with “near-total freedom”, the source said.
ECHOES OF LEBANON
Israel’s assault bears echoes of last year’s devastating offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, during which Israel wiped out the Tehran-aligned group’s top command – including its leader Hassan Nasrallah – within the first days.
Two U.S. officials told Reuters on Sunday that President Donald Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan in recent days to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Netanyahu on Monday did not rule out targeting Khamenei, saying doing so would end the conflict.
Further echoing its 2024 campaign in Lebanon, the Israeli military on Monday issued an evacuation warning for a specific area of Tehran, saying in a post on X that it planned to target the “Iranian regime’s military infrastructure” in the capital.
A regional intelligence source said Israel had built a “truly surprising” network of agents in Tehran, likening the targeted killings of top officials to the blows directed at Hezbollah’s leadership. The source said Israel’s ability to “penetrate Tehran from the inside” had been astonishing.
Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the RUSI think-tank in London, said Iran has “few technical answers” to the combination of Israeli F-35 aircraft capable of waging electronic warfare against its anti-aircraft systems, supported by F-16s and F-15s carrying precision-guided ballistic missiles.
Though Israel was long assessed to have the upper hand, the speed, scale and effectiveness of its strikes – particularly against top Iranian generals – caught many off guard, said Barin Kayaoglu, a Turkish defence analyst. Iran’s military appeared to have been “sleeping at the wheel”, he said.
However, he cited challenges for Israel, saying its air force could find it difficult to maintain the current tempo of its operations because of the need to replenish ammunition stocks and maintain warplanes.
WEAPONS SHIPPED
In April, Israeli media reported an unusually large shipment of bombs arriving from the U.S. An unsourced report by public broadcaster Kan on April 17 said the delivery included hundreds of bombs, among them bunker busters.
Iranian air defences were damaged by Israeli strikes during exchanges of fire last year, Israeli officials said then. As last week’s attack began, Israel said Mossad commandos on the ground in Iran destroyed more of Iran’s anti-aircraft systems.
Despite Israeli air supremacy, Israeli officials have acknowledged that Iran’s nuclear program cannot be disabled entirely by Israel’s military, emphasising goals that fall short of its total destruction.
A former senior Israeli security official told Reuters that while U.S. military support was needed to do damage to Iran’s most deeply buried facility, the Fordow enrichment plant, Israel was not counting on Washington joining the attack.
Israel has said it has not targeted Fordow – built beneath a mountain south of Tehran – to date, rather just the installations at Natanz and Isfahan.
Either way, the former official said Israel had already done enough meaningful damage to Iran’s nuclear program, declining to be named so he could speak freely about sensitive matters.
If after the conflict ends Iran retained a residual uranium enrichment capability but not the people and facilities to do anything of concern with it, then this would be a major achievement, added the official.
Trump has repeatedly said Iran could end the war by agreeing to tough restrictions on its enrichment program.
Emily Harding from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said conventional wisdom held that Israel could not completely eliminate the deepest buried parts of Iran’s nuclear program.
“But Israel has strongly hinted that it has more capability than that conventional wisdom would suggest. For example, the ability to operate freely over the target allows for multiple sorties that could do a lot of damage,” she said.
Writing by Tom Perry; editing by Crispian Balmer and Mark Heinrich
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Airlines to bring stranded Israelis back home, no outward flights
Israel’s airspace has been closed since Israel and Iran began trading attacks on Friday. Tens of thousands whose flights to Tel Aviv were cancelled. El Al expects to operate flights on Wednesday from Larnaca, Athens, Rome, Milan and Paris to bring anyone who had a cancelled El Al ticket to Israel. There would still be no passenger flights leaving Israel, it added. Smaller rival Arkia said it would bring back Israelis from Karpathos in Greece, L Carnaca in Cyprus and Tivat in Montenegro. It has cancelled both foreign and domestic flights up to June 30, and is working to expand the rescue operation.
June 17 (Reuters) – Israel’s airlines said on Tuesday that they had received government permission to start flights to bring back people who had been stranded abroad during the conflict with Iran
Israel’s airspace has been closed since Israel and Iran began trading attacks on Friday, stranding tens of thousands whose flights to Tel Aviv were cancelled.
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El Al Airlines (ELAL.TA) , opens new tab , Israel’s flag carrier, said it expects to operate flights on Wednesday from Larnaca, Athens, Rome, Milan and Paris to bring anyone who had a cancelled El Al ticket to Israel.
There would still be no passenger flights leaving Israel, it added. El Al has cancelled all scheduled flights through June 23.
“We understand the difficulty, uncertainty and stress experienced by El Al customers abroad who are seeking to return to Israel, as well as those whose travel plans were disrupted,” it said.
“The rescue flights will be operated gradually, and therefore patience is required from El Al customers abroad. We recommend preparing for extended stays and lodging arrangements.”
Smaller rival Arkia said it would bring back Israelis from Karpathos in Greece, Larnaca in Cyprus and Tivat in Montenegro.
“Arkia is prepared to operate during any time window approved by the security authorities, including Fridays and Saturdays, and is working with authorities to explore expanding the rescue operation,” it said.
Israir (ISRG.TA) , opens new tab said it would operate three flights for Israelis from Larnaca and Athens and from Varna in Bulgaria on Wednesday, and hoped to offer more soon. It has cancelled both foreign and domestic flights up to June 30.
Israel’s Transportation Ministry has said there are as many as 150,000 Israelis abroad, around 50,000 of them seeking to return to Israel.
El Al said that within 90 minutes of opening a portal for passengers seeking to fly home, more than 60,000 people joined an electronic queue to register.
Cruise operator Mano Maritime, whose “Crown Iris” ship carries 2,000 passengers, said it would make two crossings from Cyprus to Israel’s Mediterranean port city of Haifa.
Large numbers have converged on Cyprus , the European Union member state closest to Israel. Flights from the coastal city of Larnaca to Tel Aviv take 50 minutes, and boat crossings to the Haifa take about 15 hours.
Foreign carriers have often cancelled flights during Israel’s war against Hamas militants in Gaza, leaving El Al, Arkia and Israir to fill the gap for travellers.
Reporting by Steven Scheer, Editing by Timothy Heritage and Andrew Heavens
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Trump says US won’t kill Iran’s supreme leader, ‘at least not for now’
President Donald Trump says the U.S. knows exactly where Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was “hiding” Trump says Khamenei is an easy target but would not be killed, at least for now.
June 17 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. knew exactly where Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was “hiding”, that he was an easy target but would not be killed, at least for now.
“We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
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“But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin,” Trump said.
Reporting by Costas Pitas; editing by Rami Ayyub
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Major Gulf bourses subdued on Israel-Iran conflict
Major stock markets in the Gulf were subdued in early trade on Tuesday. Investors cautious as fighting between Iran and Israel entered its fifth day. Investors are also watching for details from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to start later in the day. The focus yet again will be on the path its Chair Jerome Powell charts out for future rate cuts.
June 17 (Reuters) – Major stock markets in the Gulf were subdued in early trade on Tuesday with investors cautious as fighting between Iran and Israel entered its fifth day, sparking fears of potential regional instability.
Iranian media reported explosions and heavy air defence fire in Tehran. In Israel, air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv in response to Iranian missiles.
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U.S. President Donald Trump, returning early from the G7 summit in Canada on Monday night, urged Iranians to evacuate Tehran, citing the country’s rejection of a deal to curb nuclear weapons development.
Investors are also watching for details from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to start later in the day, with a decision expected on Wednesday.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady but the focus yet again will be on the path its Chair Jerome Powell charts out for future rate cuts. Traders are currently pricing in two cuts by this year-end.
In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI) , opens new tab was up 0.1% in a choppy trade.
Reporting by Ateeq Shariff in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair
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Japan says it may evacuate its citizens from Iran as soon as Thursday
The Japanese embassy in Iran said on Tuesday it was considering evacuating Japanese nationals by transporting them by bus to a neighbouring country. “This could be carried out as early as Thursday, June 19,” the embassy said on the foreign ministry’s website.
TOKYO, June 17 (Reuters) – The Japanese embassy in Iran said on Tuesday it was considering evacuating Japanese nationals by transporting them by bus to a neighbouring country, as the Israel-Iran air war raged for a fifth straight day.
“This could be carried out as early as Thursday, June 19,” the embassy said on the foreign ministry’s website.
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Earlier, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said the government was looking into various options for evacuating Japanese citizens, and the foreign ministry issued an evacuation advisory for Japanese nationals in Iran.
Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka Editing by Alex Richardson and Gareth Jones
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