Dire future climate impacts worse than what the world has already experienced are already baked in over the next decade or two. (David SWANSON) (David SWANSON/AFP/AFP)

From carbon pollution to sea-level rise to global heating, the pace and level of key climate change indicators are all in uncharted territory, more than 60 top scientists warned Thursday.

Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and deforestation hit a new high in 2024 and averaged, over the last decade, a record 53.6 billion tonnes per year — that is 100,000 tonnes per minute — of CO2 or its equivalent in other gases, they reported in a peer-reviewed update.

Earth’s surface temperature last year breached 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time, and the additional CO2 humanity can emit with a two-thirds chance of staying under that threshold long-term — our 1.5C “carbon budget” — will be exhausted in a couple of years, they calculated.

Investment in clean energy outpaced investment in oil, gas and coal last year two-to-one, but fossil fuels account for more than 80 percent of global energy consumption, and growth in renewables still lags behind new demand.

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Included in the 2015 Paris climate treaty as an aspirational goal, the 1.5C limit has since been validated by science as necessary for avoiding a catastrophically climate-addled world.

The hard cap on warming to which nearly 200 nations agreed was “well below” two degrees, commonly interpreted to mean 1.7C to 1.8C.

“We are already in crunch time for these higher levels of warming,” co-author Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, told journalists in a briefing.

“The next three or four decades is pretty much the timeline over which we expect a peak in warming to happen.”

– ‘The wrong direction’ –

No less alarming than record heat and carbon emissions is the gathering pace at which these and other climate indicators are shifting, according to the study, published in Earth System Science Data.

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Human-induced warming increased over the last decade at a rate “unprecedented in the instrumental record”, and well above the 2010-2019 average registered in the UN’s most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, in 2021.

The new findings — led by the same scientists using essentially the same methods — are intended as an authoritative albeit unofficial update of the benchmark IPCC reports underpinning global climate diplomacy.

They should be taken as a reality check by policymakers, the authors suggested.

“I tend to be an optimistic person,” said lead author Piers Forster, head of the University of Leed’s Priestley Centre for Climate Futures.

“But if you look at this year’s update, things are all moving in the wrong direction.”

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The rate at which sea levels have shot up in recent years is also alarming, the scientists said.

After creeping up, on average, well under two millimetres per year from 1901 to 2018, global oceans have risen 4.3 mm annually since 2019.

– What happens next? –

An increase in the ocean watermark of 23 centimetres — the width of a letter-sized sheet of paper — over the last 125 years has been enough to imperil many small island states and hugely amplify the destructive power of storm surges worldwide.

An additional 20 centimetres of sea level rise by 2050 would cause one trillion dollars in flood damage annually in the world’s 136 largest coastal cities, earlier research has shown.

Another indicator underlying all the changes in the climate system is Earth’s so-called energy imbalance, the difference between the amount of solar energy entering the atmosphere and the smaller amount leaving it.

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So far, 91 percent of human-caused warming has been absorbed by oceans, sparing life on land.

But the planet’s energy imbalance has nearly doubled in the last 20 years, and scientists do not know how long oceans will continue to massively soak up this excess heat.

Dire future climate impacts worse than what the world has already experienced are already baked in over the next decade or two.

But beyond that, the future is in our hands, the scientists made clear.

“We will rapidly reach a level of global warming of 1.5C, but what happens next depends on the choices which will be made,” said co-author and former IPCC co-chair Valerie Masson-Delmotte.

The Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target allows for the possibility of ratcheting down global temperatures below that threshold before century’s end.

Ahead of a critical year-end climate summit in Brazil, international cooperation has been weakened by the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

President Donald Trump’s dismantling of domestic climate policies means the United States is likely to fall short on its emissions reduction targets, and could sap the resolve of other countries to deepen their own pledges, experts say.

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Time is running out to curb climate change, scientists have warned in a major new report.

There are now only 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide left in the ‘carbon budget’ – the amount of carbon that can be emitted before the world hits the critical limit of 1.5°C of warming.

If the world keeps producing greenhouse gases at the current rate, that will be gone in just three years.

What’s more, the remaining carbon budget to avoid 1.6°C or 1.7°C of warming will be burnt through in as little as nine years at current rates.

The report found that 2024 experienced ‘alarmingly unexceptional’ high temperatures, reaching 1.52°C (2.74°F) warmer than the pre-industrial benchmark.

Overall, 1.36°C (2.45°F) of that warming can be directly traced back to human activity, with the remaining 0.16°C (0.29°F) coming from natural fluctuations.

A single year above 1.5°C of warming doesn’t mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does show that the world is getting dangerously close to this threshold.

Professor Joeri Rogelj, co-author and climate scientist at Imperial College London, says: ‘The window to stay within 1.5°C is rapidly closing. Emissions over the next decade will determine how soon and how fast 1.5°C of warming is reached.’

Scientists warn that time is running out to curb climate change to the 1.5°C of warming laid out in the Paris Agreement (stock image)

A new study shows that there is 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide left in the ‘carbon budget’, the amount of carbon which can be emitted before the world hits 1.5°C of warming. This will be gone in three years at current rates

2024 experienced ‘alarmingly unexceptional’ high temperatures reaching 1.52°C (2.74°F) warmer than the pre-industrial benchmark. Worryingly, 1.36°C (2.45°F) of that warming can be directly traced back to human activity

The annual Indicators of Global Climate Change study combines the work of 60 scientists to measure 10 key indicators of climate change to give a broad picture of the planet’s health.

The data shows that we are rapidly approaching the warming limits set out by the Paris Climate Agreement and that the remaining ‘carbon budget’ is dwindling.

Professor Rogelj explains that the carbon budget is worked out from the basis that ‘the global warming we experience is largely determined by the total amount of carbon dioxide that is ever emitted into the atmosphere by human activities.’

He adds: ‘That means that if we want to keep warming from exceeding a specific level, there is a limited amount of carbon dioxide that can ever be emitted.

‘The remaining carbon budget estimates how much of that amount remains when looking at where we stand today.’

By looking at current warming rates and how much the planet warms per tonne of CO2 emitted, the researchers calculated that 130 billion more tonnes of CO2 will bring humanity to the 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement.

At the current rate, the world releases the equivalent of around 53 billion tonnes each year.

To put that into perspective, that is the same as 5.2 million Eiffel Towers of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere every single year.

Previous measurements taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (illustrated) show that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are higher than they have been in the last two million years of the planet’s history

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What is the carbon budget? The carbon budget is an estimate of how much more CO2 can be released into the atmosphere before the world reaches a certain heating threshold. This is worked out from the basis that almost all of the world’s heating is caused by CO2 added to the atmosphere. By looking at how much CO2 has been emitted and how much the planet has warmed, researchers calculate how much warming a tonne of CO2 creates. Comparing this to our current warming rates, scientists calculate how many more tonnes of CO2 would lead to a set temperature. The carbon budget for 1.5°C of warming currently stands at 130 billion tonnes from the beginning of 2025. Advertisement

If emissions are not rapidly reduced to more sustainable levels, there will be no way to avoid exceeding 1.5°C and triggering more severe and dangerous consequences.

Even though 2024 was more than 1.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial average, that does not mean the Paris Agreement has been breached.

This international treaty binds its signatories to ‘pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C’ taken as an average over several decades.

But, looking at the climate on a wider time scale shows that we are quickly approaching a time when this will be breached.

The average surface temperature on Earth for the decade between 2015 and 2024 was 1.24°C (2.23°F) hotter than it was before the industrial revolution.

Professor Rogelj told MailOnline that ‘all’ of this change is due to humans putting more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The study found that only 0.02°C (0.04°F) of warming over the last decade has any non-human causes, which Professor Rogelj calls a ‘negligible’ amount.

By comparison, during the transition out of the last Ice Age – one of the fastest periods of natural warming in the planet’s history – the warming rate was about 1.5°C (2.7°F) per thousand years.

Increased surface temperatures exceeding 1.5°C risk significant increases in extreme weather events which can create the conditions for wildfires such as those that raged in LA during January (pictured)

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Hottest years on record globally 2024 (59.2°F/15.1°C) 2023 (58.96°F/14.98°C) 2016 (58.66°F/14.814°C) 2020 (58.65°F/14.807°C) 2019 (58.60°F/14.78°C) 2017 (58.50°F/14.723°C) 2022 (58.42°F/14.682°C) 2021 (58.38°F/14.656°C) 2018 (58.35°F/14.644°C) 2015 (58.34°F/14.637°C) (Figures in brackets refer to global average air temperature for the year) Advertisement

That is equivalent to just 0.02°C (0.04°F) of warming per decade, compared to 1.22°C (2.2°F) of human-caused warming per decade today.

As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the rate of heating is increasing right up to the present day.

The rate of global heating seen between 2012 and 2024 was double that seen in the 1970s and 1980s.

At these rates, the researchers estimate the world will breach the Paris Agreement’s limits on average warming by around 2030.

This is already causing measurable changes in Earth’s climate, especially in the oceans which absorb 91 per cent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases.

Warmer waters lead to rising sea levels, faster ice melt, and more violent storms.

Dr Aimée Slangen, research leader at the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, says: ‘Since 1900, the global mean sea level has risen by around 228 mm.

‘This seemingly small number is having an outsized impact on low-lying coastal areas, making storm surges more damaging and causing more coastal erosion, posing a threat to humans and coastal ecosystems.

The researchers say that current rates of greenhouse gas emissions mean the remaining carbon budget to avoid 1.6°C or 1.7°C of warming will be burnt through in as little as nine years

Most of the excess heat created by greenhouse gases is absorbed by the oceans which leads to rising sea levels and increased ice melt

‘The concerning part is that we know that sea-level rise in response to climate change is relatively slow, which means that we have already locked in further increases in the coming years and decades.’

The researchers behind the report say that action needs to be taken to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid more severe effects of climate change.

Professor Rogelj concludes: ‘How much carbon budget we have depends on the level of warming that we want to limit global warming to, and how much risk of higher warming we are willing to allow.

‘Overall, however, for any temperature limit that aims to avoid dangerous levels of climate change, it essential that we stop emitting climate pollution as soon as we can.

‘Every year that reductions are delayed adds to this cumulative problem.’

Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, leading scientists warn

2 hours ago Share Save Mark Poynting Climate reporter, BBC News Share Save

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The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide emissions. That’s the stark warning from more than 60 of the world’s leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global warming. Nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change. But countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests – leaving that international goal in peril.

“Things are all moving in the wrong direction,” said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. “We’re seeing some unprecedented changes and we’re also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well.” These changes “have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions”, he added. At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) – the most important planet-warming gas – for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C. But by the start of 2025 this so-called “carbon budget” had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new study. That reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific estimates. If global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is exhausted. This could commit the world to breaching the target set by the Paris agreement, the researchers say, though the planet would probably not pass 1.5C of human-caused warming until a few years later.

Last year was the first on record when global average air temperatures were more than 1.5C above those of the late 1800s. A single 12-month period isn’t considered a breach of the Paris agreement, however, with the record heat of 2024 given an extra boost by natural weather patterns. But human-caused warming was by far the main reason for last year’s high temperatures, reaching 1.36C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers estimate. This current rate of warming is about 0.27C per decade – much faster than anything in the geological record. And if emissions stay high, the planet is on track to reach 1.5C of warming on that metric around the year 2030. After this point, long-term warming could, in theory, be brought back down by sucking large quantities of CO2 back out of the atmosphere. But the authors urge caution on relying on these ambitious technologies serving as a get-out-of-jail card. “For larger exceedance [of 1.5C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today’s emissions,” warned Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London.

‘Every fraction of warming’ matters

The study is filled with striking statistics highlighting the magnitude of the climate change that has already happened. Perhaps the most notable is the rate at which extra heat is accumulating in the Earth’s climate system, known as “Earth’s energy imbalance” in scientific jargon. Over the past decade or so, this rate of heating has been more than double that of the 1970s and 1980s and an estimated 25% higher than the late 2000s and 2010s. “That’s a really large number, a very worrying number” over such a short period, said Dr Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office, and associate professor at the University of Bristol. The recent uptick is fundamentally due to greenhouse gas emissions, but a reduction in the cooling effect from small particles called aerosols has also played a role. This extra energy has to go somewhere. Some goes into warming the land, raising air temperatures, and melting the world’s ice. But about 90% of the excess heat is taken up by the oceans. That not only means disruption to marine life but also higher sea levels: warmer ocean waters take up more space, in addition to the extra water that melting glaciers are adding to our seas. The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide.

While this all paints a bleak picture, the authors note that the rate of emissions increases appears to be slowing as clean technologies are rolled out. They argue that “rapid and stringent” emissions cuts are more important than ever. The Paris target is based on very strong scientific evidence that the impacts of climate change would be far greater at 2C of warming than at 1.5C. That has often been oversimplified as meaning below 1.5C of warming is “safe” and above 1.5C “dangerous”. In reality, every extra bit of warming increases the severity of many weather extremes, ice melt and sea-level rise. “Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming,” said Prof Rogelj. “Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire,” he added.

UN scientists have warned that the world is in “crunch time” to avoid higher levels of warming beyond the key threshold of 1.5C but that drivers of climate change are “all moving in the wrong direction”.

In their annual report, a team of more than 60 international scientists have put together a comprehensive picture of the current state of the climate and calculated the human-driven factors behind the changes the world is experiencing.

It comes as part of efforts to provide regular updates between landmark UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the last of which was published in 2021 and the next of which is expected in 2028.

Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase year on year (David Jones/PA) (PA Wire)

The group examined the amount of planet-heating carbon dioxide (CO2) the world can release into the atmosphere in the coming years while limiting warming to the UN target of 1.5C.

The report estimates that the remaining “carbon budget” for 1.5C is emitting 130 billion tonnes of C02 from the beginning of 2025, if the world is to have a 50% chance to stay within the threshold.

However, this budget will be exhausted in little more than three years at current levels of CO2 emissions, according to the findings published on Wednesday night in the journal Earth System Science Data.

This means that without drastic cuts to emissions, the world will be unable to prevent warming from surpassing the dangerous threshold, which will lead to a rise in extreme weather events, climate-related disasters and increase the risk of triggering irreversible changes.

The report also warned the carbon budget for 1.6C or 1.7C could also be exceeded within nine years, which will significantly intensify these impacts.

The scientists’ long-term estimates show current average global temperatures to be 1.24C higher than in pre-industrial times.

Professor Joeri Rogelj, research director at the Grantham Institute, said: “Under any course of action, there is a very high chance that we will reach and even exceed 1.5C and even higher levels of warming.

“1.5C is an iconic level but we are currently already in crunch time… to avoid higher levels of warming with a decent likelihood or a prudent likelihood as well and that is true for 1.7C, but equally so for 1.8C if we want to have a high probability there.”

But Prof Rogelj added that reductions in emissions over the next decade can still “critically change” the rate of warming and limit the magnitude and the extent by which the world exceeds 1.5C.

“It’s really the difference between just cruising through 1.5C towards much higher levels of 2C or trying to limit warming somewhere in the range of 1.5,” he said.

Piers Forster, professor of Climate Physics at the University of Leeds, who has helped author IPCC reports, said the report highlights how climate policies and pace of climate action “are not keeping up with what’s needed to address the ever-growing impacts”.

“I certainly tend to be an optimistic person but if you do look at this year’s annual update, things are all moving in the wrong direction,” he said.

“They’re not only moving in the wrong direction, we’re seeing some unprecedented changes.”

Reflecting on the IPCC reports, he said: “What we had hope to see by this time is these emissions beginning to turn a corner and unfortunately that hasn’t occurred.”

Instead emissions have increased year on year since the 2021 report, remaining at all-time highs, he said.

This year’s update covers key climate system indicators such as greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, Earth energy imbalance, human-induced climate change, remaining carbon budgets and maximum land surface temperatures.

Rough seas near the Tynemouth pier lighthouse on the River Tyne (Owen Humphreys/PA) (PA Archive)

But for the first time, the annual update also included sea-level rise and global land precipitation.

In 2024, the best estimate of observed global surface temperature rise was 1.52C, of which 1.36C can be attributed to human activity, caused by global greenhouse gas emissions, the scientists said.

The report said last year’s high temperatures are “alarmingly unexceptional” as the combination of human-driven climate change and the El Nino weather phenomenon push global heat to record levels.

While global average temperatures exceeded 1.5C for the first time, this does not mean the world has breached landmark UN agreement, which would require average global temperatures to exceed the threshold over multiple decades.

When analysing longer-term temperature change, the scientists’ best estimates show that between 2015 and 2024 average global temperatures were 1.24C higher than in pre-industrial times, with 1.22C caused by human activities.

Elsewhere, the report found that human activities were found to be affecting the Earth’s energy balance, with the oceans storing about 91% of the excess heat, driving detrimental changes in every component of the climate system, including sea level rise, ocean warming, ice loss, and permafrost thawing.

Between 2019 and 2024, global mean sea level also increased by around 26mm, more than doubling the long-term rate of 1.8mm per year seen since the turn of the twentieth century.

Dr Aimee Slangen, research leader at the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, said the rise is already having an “outsized impact” on low-lying coastal areas, causing more damaging storm surges and coastal erosion.

“The concerning part is that we know that sea-level rise in response to climate change is relatively slow, which means that we have already locked in further increases in the coming years and decades,” she said.

IPCC’s last assessment of the climate system, published in 2021, highlighted how climate change was leading to widespread adverse impacts on nature and people.

Professor Rogelj said: “Every small increase in warming matters, leading to more frequent, more intense weather extremes.

“Emissions over the next decade will determine how soon and how fast 1.5C of warming is reached. They need to be swiftly reduced to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.”

Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study to be released Thursday.

The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.

“Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. “We’re actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there’s a silver lining. I don’t think there really is one in this one.”

That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures.

In Thursday’s Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said.

Earth’s energy imbalance

The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said.

“It’s quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,” said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. “I can’t conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.”

The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said.

Earth’s energy imbalance “is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,” Hausfather said.

Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. “It is very clearly accelerating. It’s worrisome,” he said.

Crossing the temperature limit

The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven’t consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth’s carbon cycle works.

That 1.5 is “a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,” said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded.

Crossing the threshold “means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,” said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn’t part of the study.

Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn’t part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn’t focus on that particular threshold.

“Missing it does not mean the end of the world,” Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that “each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.”

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