Current Satellite And Storm Status

Hurricane Erick is nearing a destructive landfall in southern Mexico at Category 4 intensity with life-threatening storm surge, rainfall flooding and high winds.

Erick rapidly intensified from a 40 mph tropical storm Tuesday morning to Cat. 4 intensity at midnight Thursday morning. Just hours from landfall, Erick may be the first known Cat. 4 E. Pacific hurricane to landfall in Mexico prior to October in records dating to the late 1950s.

(MORE: What Is Rapid Intensification?)

Erick became the Eastern Pacific’s second hurricane of the season early Wednesday morning, almost four weeks ahead of the season’s average second hurricane pace. The season’s fifth storm has historically formed by July 23, based on the 1991-2020 average.

Forecast

-Alerts: Hurricane warnings are posted for parts of Mexico’s Guerrero and Oaxaca states, including Acapulco. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings extend to the west and east of this hurricane warning, as shown in the map below.

Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts (A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

Advertisement -Timing: Erick is just hours from landfall either over western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero states east of Acapulco, and conditions will deteriorate rapidly with heavy rain and high winds. Once inland, Erick is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate by late tonight or early Friday.

-Intensity: As mentioned earlier, Erick will landfall as an intense hurricane, most likely a Category 4.

Projected Path (The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

-Surge, Wind Impacts: Erick’s worst storm surge and devastating wind impacts will be along and just east of where the center comes ashore in parts of western Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero states. Those greatest threats will most likely be east of Acapulco, but strong wind gusts are also possible in the city, particularly over higher terrain.

-Heavy Rain A More Widespread Threat: The heaviest totals of 8 to 12 inches, with locally up to 16 inches possible, are forecast in the Oaxaca and Guerrero states. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely and mudslides are a threat in the mountainous terrain near this coast.