Gulf States Caught Off Guard by Speed of Israel’s Iran Attack
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Israeli air power reigns over Iran, but needs US for deeper impact
Highlights: Israeli officials laud the damage done so far, some publicly acknowledge Israel won’t be able to completely knock out Iran’s program. Israel has shown its military and intelligence pre-eminence as its warplanes have criss-crossed the Middle East. Israel is now operating over Syria with “near-total freedom”, the source said. The source said Israel’s ability to “penish” from the inside” had been “truly surprising” Israeli officials declared the establishment of Iran on Monday, saying doing so would end the conflict. Israel on Monday issued an evacuation for the specific area of Tehran, saying in a post on X that it planned to target the “Iranian regime’s military infrastructure” in the capital. Israeli officials said on Monday Israel’s control of Iranian air space was “a game-chic”. National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said pilots could operate “against countless more targets” over Tehran, thanks to the destruction of “dozens and dozens” of targets.
Israel declares air superiority over Iran, Netanyahu calls it a ‘game-changer’
Israeli warplanes refuel over Syria, showing freedom of action
Analyst says Israel able to act with impunity over Iran, but strategic success needs more than air power
Speed and scale of Israeli strikes caught many off guard, analyst says
Israel’s command of Iranian air space leaves few obstacles in the way of its expanding bombardment, though it will struggle to deal a knock-out blow to deeply buried nuclear sites without the US joining the attack, experts say.
While Iran has responded with deadly missile strikes on Israeli cities, Israel has shown its military and intelligence pre-eminence as its warplanes have crisscrossed the Middle East, hitting Iranian nuclear installations, missile stockpiles, scientists, and generals – among other targets.
On Monday, several Israeli officials declared the establishment of air superiority over Iran. The military likened its control of Iranian skies to its command of the air space over other arenas of conflict with Iran-aligned enemies, such as over Gaza and Lebanon – where Israel continues to bomb at will.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday Israel’s control of Iranian air space was “a game-changer”. National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said pilots could operate “against countless more targets” over Tehran, thanks to the destruction of “dozens and dozens” of air defence batteries.
But even as Israeli officials laud the damage done so far, some publicly acknowledge Israel won’t be able to completely knock out Iran’s nuclear program – unless the US joins the campaign with strategic bombers that can drop ordnance with the potential to penetrate sites buried deep underground.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, said Israel had achieved “quite a lot of operational and tactical successes … But translating that into a strategic success will require more than what air power can deliver”.
Krieg said even the heaviest US bunker-busting bombs might struggle to penetrate Iran’s deepest sites – in the event President Donald Trump decides to join the attack – suggesting special, commando-style forces might be needed on the ground.
Nevertheless, “Israel can act with impunity now, and they can do that in the way they did in it in Lebanon”.
Israel launched its campaign on Friday, saying Tehran was on the verge of building a nuclear bomb – something Iran has always denied seeking from its uranium enrichment program.
While the Iranian military says it has downed Israeli warplanes, Israel denies this and says no crews or planes have been harmed during their missions to Iran, a return journey of some 3,000 km (2,000 miles) or more.
A senior Western defence source said Israeli warplanes have been refuelling over Syria – a bastion of Iranian influence until Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December. Israel is now operating over Syria with “near-total freedom”, the source said.
ECHOES OF LEBANON
Israel’s assault bears echoes of last year’s devastating offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, during which Israel wiped out the Tehran-aligned gro
Two US officials told Reuters on Sunday that President Donald Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan in recent days to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Netanyahu on Monday did not rule out targeting Khamenei, saying doing so would end the conflict.
Further echoing its 2024 campaign in Lebanon, the Israeli military on Monday issued an evacuation warning for a specific area of Tehran, saying in a post on X that it planned to target the “Iranian regime’s military infrastructure” in the capital.
A regional intelligence source said Israel had built a “truly surprising” network of agents in Tehran, likening the targeted killings of top officials to the blows directed at Hezbollah’s leadership. The source said Israel’s ability to “penetrate Tehran from the inside” had been astonishing.
Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the RUSI think-tank in London, said Iran has “few technical answers” to the combination of Israeli F-35 aircraft capable of waging electronic warfare against its anti-aircraft systems, supported by F-16s and F-15s carrying precision-guided ballistic missiles.
Though Israel was long assessed to have the upper hand, the speed, scale and effectiveness of its strikes – particularly against top Iranian generals – caught many off guard, said Barin Kayaoglu, a Turkish defence analyst. Iran’s military appeared to have been “sleeping at the wheel”, he said.
However, he cited challenges for Israel, saying its air force could find it difficult to maintain the current tempo of its operations because of the need to replenish ammunition stocks and maintain warplanes.
WEAPONS SHIPPED
In April, Israeli media reported an unusually large shipment of bombs arriving from the US An unsourced report by public broadcaster Kan on April 17 said the delivery included hundreds of bombs, among them bunker busters.
Iranian air defences were damaged by Israeli strikes during exchanges of fire last year, Israeli officials said then. As last week’s attack began, Israel said Mossad commandos on the ground in Iran destroyed more of Iran’s anti-aircraft systems.
Despite Israeli air supremacy, Israeli officials have acknowledged that Iran’s nuclear program cannot be disabled entirely by Israel’s military, emphasising goals that fall short of its total destruction.
A former senior Israeli security official told Reuters that while US military support was needed to do damage to Iran’s most deeply buried facility, the Fordow enrichment plant, Israel was not counting on Washington joining the attack.
Iran and Israel launch more attacks as Trump weighs US involvement
Trump considers strikes at Iran as Middle East volatility deepens. At issue is the Fordo enrichment site, an underground facility vital to Iran’s nuclear programme. Only the US has the capability to potentially destroy it. Israel is continuing another night of attacks in Iran, conducting a series of strikes in Tehran.
US President Donald Trump has approved plans for the US to strike at Iran but is still weighing a final decision, according to US media, including the BBC’s US media partner CBS News.
At issue is the Fordo enrichment site, an underground facility vital to Iran’s nuclear programme. Only the US has the capability to potentially destroy it.
Publicly, Trump has remained equivocal about what he plans to do. “I may do it, I may not do it. Nobody knows what I want to do,” Trump has told journalists. “But I can say this: Iran’s got a lot of trouble and wants to negotiate.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is planning to attend talks in Geneva with his UK, German and French counterparts on Friday.
Meanwhile, Israel is continuing another night of attacks in Iran, conducting a series of strikes in Tehran while warning residents in Arak and Khandab to evacuate.
We are now pausing this live page, but do keep up-to-date on the BBC.
Two oil tankers collide, catch fire near Strait of Hormuz
The world’s largest oil and natural gas company, Saudi Aramco, is one of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers. Aramco is also a major employer in the United States. The company is also the largest exporter of natural gas in the world, with a market value of more than $1.2 billion. The firm is expected to make a profit for the first time in its history in the second quarter of this year. It is also expected to post a record profits for the second year in a row in the first quarter of 2014. It has also posted a record quarterly profit in the last quarter of 2013. It was the company’s first quarterly profit since the third quarter of 2012. It had a record first quarter profit of $8.1 billion. It also posted its first quarterly profits in the third quarters of 2013, its first since the second quarters of 2011. It reported a record profit for a quarter of a century.
Companies Tankers hit each other, no spillage or injuries reported
Electronic interference affecting navigation systems
UAE evacuates crew of one of the ships
Strait of Hormuz carries fifth of world’s seaborne oil
DUBAI/COPENHAGEN, June 17 (Reuters) – Two oil tankers collided and caught fire on Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz, where electronic interference has surged during conflict between Iran and Israel , but there were no injuries to crew or spillage reported.
With Iran and Israel firing missiles at each other since Friday, interference has disrupted navigation systems near the vital waterway between Iran and Oman which handles about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.
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The United Arab Emirates coast guard said it had evacuated 24 people from one of the ships, Adalynn, to the port of Khor Fakkan after the crash 24 nautical miles off its eastern coast.
Personnel on the second tanker, the Front Eagle, were reported safe with no pollution seen after a fire on its deck, according to its owner, the Oslo-listed company Frontline (FRO.OL) , opens new tab
Frontline later told Reuters the incident would be investigated, but there was no suggestion of outside interference.
The Front Eagle was loaded with 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil and was en route to Zhoushan in China, according to monitoring service TankerTrackers.com.
The Adalynn, a Suezmax-class tanker owned by India-based Global Shipping Holding Ltd, had no cargo and was sailing towards the Suez Canal in Egypt, the monitoring service said.
TankerTrackers.com said on X that the Front Eagle was moving southbound at a speed of 13.1 knots when it “executed a starboard (right) turn, resulting in a collision with the port quarter (aft port side)” of the Adalynn, which was proceeding southeast at 4.8 knots.
STRATEGIC STRAIT
The Strait of Hormuz links the Gulf to the northwest with the Gulf of Oman to the southeast and the Arabian Sea beyond.
Between the start of 2022 and last month, roughly 17.8 million to 20.8 million barrels of crude, condensate and fuels flowed through daily, according to data from Vortexa.
The multinational, U.S.-led Combined Maritime Force’s JMIC information centre said in an advisory this week that it had received reports of electronic interference stemming from the vicinity of the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, on the north shore of the strait, and other areas in the Gulf region.
Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait to traffic in retaliation for Western pressure.
Tehran has not commented on Tuesday’s collision or reports of electronic interference. There was no immediate response to a Reuters request for comment from the Emirati foreign ministry or Khor Fakkan container terminal on Tuesday.
Dozens of tankers have dropped anchor in major port hubs in the Gulf close to the Strait of Hormuz around Fujairah and Khor Fakkan and Sharjah on the Emirati side, ship tracking data on MarineTraffic showed on Tuesday.
Some shipping companies have decided to pause their voyages due to the heightened tensions, while others were awaiting charter hires due to uncertainty, shipping sources said.
While war risk insurance costs for ships heading to Israeli ports have soared in recent days, the costs so far remain stable for voyages through the Gulf, insurance industry sources said on Tuesday.
“Rates, for the time being, remain stable with no noticeable increases since the latest hostilities between Israel and Iran. This position could change dramatically depending on any further escalation or general conflagration in the area,” David Smith, head of marine with insurance broker McGill and Partners, told Reuters.
Reporting by Yomna Ehab and Enas Alashray in Cairo, Maha El Dahan in Dubai, Stine B. Jacobsen in Copenhagen and Jonathan Saul in London; Writing by Federico Maccioni; editing by Neil Fullick, William Maclean, Andrew Cawthorne and Mark Heinrich
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