The prediction feels somewhat optimistic given recent trends. But travelers continue to benefit from lower gas prices and have mostly continued to spend despite economic uncertainty.

Americans are shrugging off economic jitters for the Fourth of July holiday: AAA projects that 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home between June 28 and July 6.

If the forecast is correct, travel for the holiday would eclipse previous records set in 2019, before the pandemic, and 2023, during the post-Covid travel surge.

But the rosy prediction hinges on gas prices staying near four-year lows and Middle East tensions not spiraling into broader conflict.

Drivers are currently paying about 40 cents less per gallon than last summer, AAA said, with gas prices at their lowest since 2021. That’s providing crucial relief for the 61.6 million Americans expected to ddrive, representing 85% of all holiday travelers.

Uncertainties Ahead

The prediction feels somewhat optimistic given recent trends. One wild card is the Israel-Iran war, which risks increasing oil prices and is causing gasoline prices to spike.

Recent hotel performance trends also suggest weakness. Overall, U.S. revenue per available room was down 1.8% for the week ending June 14, according to CoStar’s STR.

“The weekend results were not ‘soft’ to us but instead ‘bad,’ especially for limited-service chain scales, which averaged -3.3% year-over-year revenue per available room,” said Truist analysts Patrick Scholes and Gregory Miller.

Truist said the results reflected “the combination of volatility in consumer and business confidence, government segment cutbacks, and diminished inbound international travel. And to these headwinds, we now add student loan debt repayments—likely impacting limited-service hotels.”

Otherwise, a favorable calendar date might enable this year’s holiday to break travel records. Because it falls on a Friday, more travelers may take the entire week off.

AAA’s Independence Day forecast includes two weekends instead of one to “better reflect the flow of holiday travelers.”

Top Independence Day Destinations

Here are the top five U.S. destinations for the Independence Day holiday period based on travel bookings made through AAA:

Orlando, FL

Seattle, WA

New York, NY

Anchorage, AK

Fort Lauderdale, FL

WASHINGTON, DC (June 20, 2025) – AAA projects 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day holiday period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. This year’s domestic travel forecast is an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year and 7 million more than in 2019. AAA’s Independence Day forecast includes two weekends instead of one to better reflect the flow of holiday travelers.

“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4th is one of the most popular times to get away,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. “Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.”

Independence Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By Car: AAA projects 61.6 million people will travel by car, a 2.2% increase over last year, and the highest volume on record. This Independence Day holiday period is expected to see an additional 1.3 million road travelers compared to 2024. AAA recommends getting routine vehicle maintenance ahead of your trip and packing an emergency kit. Last July 4th week, AAA responded to nearly 700,000 emergency roadside assistance calls for issues like dead batteries and flat tires, plus people locking themselves out of their car or running out of gas.

Drivers are seeing some increases at the pump, but summer gas prices are still the lowest they’ve been since 2021. This year, the price of crude oil has kept gas prices on the lower side. The Israel Iran conflict has driven up the price of oil in recent days but not dramatically. Escalation and duration of the conflict are two factors to watch. Weather is also a wild card. The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season. Storms along the Gulf Coast can affect oil refineries and disrupt fuel deliveries, leading to a temporary increase in gas prices.

For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Thursday, July 3rd is expected to be the busiest day to pick up vehicles. Some of the top destinations based on advanced bookings are also on AAA’s list of most popular places to visit over July 4th: Orlando, Denver, Boston, Oahu, and Seattle. Hertz says most drivers are looking to rent SUVs and midsize sedans.

AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Pack up the car and take a road trip to one of the 10 Best National Parks to Visit in the Summer.

By Air: The number of people traveling by air is also projected to set a new record. AAA expects 5.84 million travelers will fly to their destinations; that’s 8% of all Independence Day travelers. This year’s projection is a 1.4% increase over the previous record set last Independence Day week of 5.76 million air travelers.

According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their July 4th trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $810, 4% more expensive than last year. When booking last-minute flights for summer trips, consider flying on weekdays like Tuesdays or Wednesdays for the best deals.

AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Still debating where to take the kids this summer? Check out 17 Best Vacation Spots for Families.

By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is expected to grow by 7.4% over last year. AAA projects 4.78 million people will travel by bus, train, or cruise. This year’s number is just shy of the 2019 record of 4.79 million. Cruising is driving the popularity of this category, particularly this time of year, when Alaska cruise season is in full swing.

AAA Trip Canvas Inspiration: Missed the boat this summer? Start planning now for your Alaska cruise next year! Here are The 9 Best Alaska Cruises for Every Traveler.

AAA’s Top Independence Day Destinations

The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the Independence Day travel period. Cruises, beaches, and fireworks are the main motivators for travelers heading to these cities. Alaska cruises are in peak season, Florida and Hawaii are in high demand for their resorts and attractions, and New York and Boston host two of the most popular fireworks shows in the nation. Internationally, Vancouver tops the list followed by Europe’s most in-demand cities during the summer.

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL ORLANDO, FL VANCOUVER, CANADA SEATTLE, WA ROME, ITALY NEW YORK, NY PARIS, FRANCE ANCHORAGE, AK LONDON, ENGLAND FORT LAUDERDALE, FL BARCELONA, SPAIN HONOLULU, HI DUBLIN, IRELAND DENVER, CO AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS MIAMI, FL CALGARY, CANADA BOSTON, MA ATHENS, GREECE ATLANTA, GA LISBON, PORTUGAL

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Wednesday, July 2 and Sunday, July 6 to be the busiest days on the road. Afternoon hours will be the most congested. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst traffic, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times. Watch for stopped vehicles and Slow Down, Move Over for emergency responders.

Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car Date Worst Travel Time Best Travel Time Saturday, Jun 28 12:00 PM – 5:00 PM Before 10:00 AM Sunday, Jun 29 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM Before 11:00 AM Monday, Jun 30 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM Before 12:00 PM Tuesday, Jul 01 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM Before 2:00 PM Wednesday, Jul 02 12:00 PM – 9:00 PM Before 12:00 PM Thursday, Jul 03 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM Before 12:00 PM Friday, Jul 04 12:00 PM – 7:00 PM Before 12:00 PM Saturday, Jul 05 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM Before 11:00 AM Sunday, Jul 06 12:00 PM – 6:00 PM Before 11:00 AM

SOURCE: INRIX

City Trip Type From To Road Day Time Atlanta Departing Atlanta Birmingham I-20 W Sun. 29th 12:15 PM Returning Savannah Atlanta I-16 W Sun. 6th 2:30 PM Boston Departing Boston Hyannis Route 3 S Sat. 28th 10:45 AM Returning Hyannis Boston Route 3 N Sat. 5th 11:45 AM Chicago Departing Chicago Indianapolis I-65 S Wed. 2nd 6:00 PM Returning Milwaukee Chicago I-94 E Sun. 6th 2:30 PM Denver Departing Denver Fort Collins I-25 N Mon. 30th 1:45 PM Returning Fort Collins Denver I-25 S Sat. 5th 6:30 PM Detroit Departing Detroit Toronto I-94 E Thu. 3rd 3:00 PM Returning Grand Rapids Detroit I-96 E Sat. 5th 1:30 PM Houston Departing Houston Galveston I-45 S Sat. 28th 11:15 AM Returning Galveston Houston I-45 N Sun. 6th 11:45 AM Los Angeles Departing Los Angeles San Diego I-5 S Sat. 28th 5:00 PM Returning Las Vegas Los Angeles I-15 S Sun. 6th 5:00 PM Minneapolis Departing Minneapolis Eau Claire I-94 E Sun. 29th 2:00 PM Returning Eau Claire Minneapolis I-94 W Sun. 6th 3:45 PM New York Departing New York Jersey Shore Garden State Pkwy S Tue. 1st 4:30 PM Returning Albany New York I-87 S Sun. 6th 4:15 PM Philadelphia Departing Philadelphia Rehoboth Beach I-95 & Route 13 Sat. 28th 10:45 AM Returning Poconos Philadelphia I-76/I-476 PA Tpke Sun. 6th 1:15 PM Portland Departing Portland Eugene I-5 S Wed. 2nd 5:00 PM Returning Eugene Portland I-5 N Sun. 6th 4:45 PM San Diego Departing San Diego Palm Springs I-15 N Wed. 2nd 5:45 PM Returning Palm Springs San Diego I-15 S Sat. 5th 3:00 PM San Francisco Departing San Francisco Sacramento I-80 E Wed. 2nd 5:30 PM Returning Sacramento San Francisco I-80 W Sun. 6th 4:30 PM Seattle Departing Seattle Ocean Shores I-5 S Wed. 2nd 5:45 PM Returning Ellensburg Seattle I-90 E Sun. 6th 4:30 PM Tampa Departing Tampa Orlando I-4 E Wed. 2nd 2:30 PM Returning Orlando Tampa I-4 W Fri. 4th 3:45 PM Washington, DC Departing Washington, DC Annapolis US-50 E Sat. 28th 1:45 PM Returning Annapolis Washington, DC US-50 W Fri. 4th 11:30 AM

SOURCE: INRIX

Holiday Forecast Methodology

Travel Forecast

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, forecast U.S. travel behavior and position brand, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 19, 2025.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

Independence Day Holiday Travel Period

The Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the nine-day period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024 with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.

About AAA

Started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to chart a path for better roads in America and advocate for safe mobility, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. Today, AAA delivers exceptional roadside assistance, helps travelers plan their dream vacations and adventures, offers exclusive member discounts and benefits, and provides trusted financial and insurance services – all to enhance the life journey of our 65+ million members across North America, including nearly 58 million in the United States. To learn more about all AAA offers or become a member, visit AAA.com.

About S&P Global

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.

About MMGY

MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.

About INRIX

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.

It’s beginning to look like a record breaking holiday travel season in Georgia. AAA projects 3.7 million Georgians will travel 50 miles or more from home between Dec. 21 and Jan. 1, surpassing last year’s record by over 108,000 travelers.

Travel Trends in Georgia:

• Driving: More than 3.3 million Georgians are expected to take road trips, making driving the most popular choice. Gas prices in the state currently average $2.90 per gallon, slightly lower than last year.

• Flying: About 198,366 Georgia residents are forecast to fly this holiday season.

• Other Modes: Nearly 176,164 Georgians will use buses, trains, or cruise ships to reach their destinations.

Nationwide Travel: AAA anticipates 119.3 million travelers across the country, which is 3 million more than in 2023. Road trips dominate, with 107 million expected to drive. Air travel is forecast to set a record at nearly 7.9 million passengers.

Safety Measures: AAA advises drivers to follow speed limits, ensure they are well-rested, and take breaks during long trips. The organization also urges caution around emergency responders and adherence to Move Over laws.

Congestion and Travel Patterns: Transportation analytics company INRIX predicts heavy congestion in major metro areas the weekends before Christmas and New Year’s Day. Boston, New York, and Seattle are among the cities expected to experience significant delays.

Popular Destinations: Florida cities like Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami top domestic travel lists, while Cancun and Nassau are among the preferred international locations.

AAA encourages travelers to plan ahead and allow extra time to navigate busy roads and airports during the holiday period.

They say everything’s bigger in Texas, and if AAA estimates are right, the state will break travel records this Independence Day weekend.

A record-breaking 5.6 million people are expected to roam the state over the Fourth of July holiday, which is set to be the biggest Independence Day for travel in Texas history, according to AAA.

The state is projected to see a 5.2% increase in travelers from 2023 — also a record-breaking year — and an 8.3% increase from 2019, according to data from AAA.

July 4th guide: Where can you watch Fourth of July fireworks in the Austin area?

90% of Texans expected to travel by car

With a record-breaking number of travelers this Fourth of July, Texas is set to see more motorists and flyers than ever before.

Highways are likely to be packed: 90% of the 5.6 million Texans projected to travel over the weekend will go by car, AAA estimated. That’s 4.8 million people flooding roads across Texas — more than the state has ever seen for the Fourth.

Texas skies are also expected to be especially busy, with an estimated 555,000 people traveling by air. That’s a 6.9% increase from 2023 and a whopping 15.1% higher than 2019.

Austin’s own international airport is projected to see about 33,000 departing travelers on Wednesday, July 3, according to the airport’s public information office.

For reference, Austin-Bergstrom International Airport might see about 30,000 people on an average travel day.

On Sunday, July 7, and Monday, July 8, the airport expects as many as 35,000 travelers daily.

“This will be an Independence Day for the record books,” said Daniel Armbruster of AAA Texas.

What to know when traveling by car in Texas

With so many people on the road this Independence Day weekend, AAA is preparing for a lot of breakdowns.

“We expect here in Texas to rescue 41,000 motorists,” Armbruster said.

To avoid being one of them, AAA recommends checking your car’s battery if it’s over three years old, checking your car’s fluid levels and making sure your tires are in good condition for travel.

“The top roadside emergencies that AAA will see in Texas this Independence Day are dead batteries, flat tires and engine problems,” Armbruster said.

Though the cost of gas in Texas has climbed by about 5 cents in anticipation of the holiday, prices are about 10 cents less than last year, according to data compiled by AAA.

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What to know when traveling by plane in Texas

The Austin-Bergstrom International Airport experienced its busiest month ever in May, with 2,068,404 passengers. Before that, the record-holding month was July 2023.

Now, with more travelers passing through Texas airports than ever before, this July could set a new record.

Over the busy Independence Day weekend, Austin-Bergstrom International Airport suggests arriving early for your flights. But how much time is early enough?

The airport advises arriving 2.5 hours before departure for domestic flights and 3 hours before departure for international fares.

To make parking easier, the airport maintains an online tool where flyers can check the availability at different garages in real-time.

As always, it can be difficult to remember what you can and can’t bring with you on a plane. Visit the TSA’s “What Can I Bring” page online to brush up on do’s and don’ts.

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Nationwide, more Fourth of July travelers than ever before

AAA estimates record-breaking travel across the U.S. over Independence Day weekend.

Up from 2023 by 5.2%, the organization projects 70.9 million Americans will travel over the holiday. According to AAA, the jump will come not only from domestic travel, but also an increase in international vacations.

According to AAA projections, 60.6 million people will travel by car and 5.74 million will fly for the busiest Fourth of July in American history.

We are in the middle of a record breaking travel week on Texas roads, with more people than ever getting behind the wheel for the July 4th holiday.

AAA Texas said it projects 5.6 million people in the Lone Star State will travel over this Independence Day holiday travel period, from Saturday, June 29, to Sunday, July 7. That’s a 5.2% increase over last year. Over 90 percent of those traveling this year will be driving, the organization said.

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Across the nation, AAA projects 70.9 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day holiday travel period.

The heaviest travel days will be Wednesday afternoon, July 3, and again on Friday, July 5.

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AAA says the worst times to travel by car before and on July 4th are between 2pm and 7pm. Drivers should hit the road in the morning, and travelers returning on Monday, July 8th should avoid rush hour traffic in the morning and afternoon.

“Drivers in large metro areas can expect the worst traffic delays on Wednesday, July 3rd, as they leave town, and Sunday, July 7th, as they return,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX, which provides transportation data for AAA. “Road trips over the holiday week could take up to 67% longer than normal. Travelers should monitor 511 services, local news stations, and traffic apps for up-to-the-minute road conditions.”

Click here to see a chart of the best and worst times to travel by car.

For the first time ever, AAA has expanded its forecast to nine days because of the popularity of remote work and many choosing to take summer vacations during this holiday.

“You’re going to have regular commuters mixed with holiday commuters trying to get to their Independence Day holiday destination,” said Daniel Armbruster, AAA Texas spokesperson.

Gas prices are lower than last year when the Texas regular unleaded average was $3.14. As of Wednesday morning, it is averaging at $3.09/gallon across the state. Currently, DFW is averaging around $3.23/gallon.

Pump prices will likely continue going down leading up to Independence Day. At that point, they will likely level off and remain relatively stable until after Labor Day, similar to last year. An important caveat is hurricane season – underway now – which could affect gas prices should a storm negatively impact Gulf Coast oil production and refining centers.

AAA car rental partner Hertz says Dallas, Denver, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are the cities displaying the highest rental demand during the holiday week. The busiest pick-up days are projected to be Friday, June 28, Saturday, June 29, and Wednesday, July 4.

Here’s a checklist before you hit the road or the skies this week: