UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath rode on a strong anti-incumbency wave to wrest Nilambur from the LDF. While the official declaration from the Election Commission is being awaited, reports from counting centres indicated that Shoukath has gained an unassailable lead of over 11,000 votes. This will be the third time Congress has won a bypoll in Nilambur. It had previously won bypolls in 1970 and 1980. Shoukath weathered a spirited performance by independent candidate P V Anvar in the first five rounds of counting. He stormed the LDF bastions and left a significant dent on CPM’s vote share in Pothukallu and Nilambur.

Nilambur bypoll result also bucked the trend of recent byelections. UDF and LDF retained their seats respectively in Palakkad and Chelakkara bypolls held in 2024. UDF also won the Thrikkakkara bypoll held in 2022, in which Uma Thomas won with a record majority.

LDF candidate M Swaraj suffered a major dip in vote share in Pothukallu panchayat and Nilambur municipality, much to the disappointment of the CPM. LDF has traditionally banked on these two local bodies in Nilambur. The leakage of CPM votes here indicated a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. When the Congress vote share eroded in Vazhikadavu and Moothedam, CPM’s hopes were high. In 2021, it had enjoyed a significant lead in Pothukallu and Nilambur. The LDF camp was upbeat that marshalling votes from their strongholds would be sufficient to surpass the lead taken by Shoukath in the first five rounds. Once the vote share dropped in Nilambur and Pothukallu, Shoukath cruised confidently.

According to the latest figures of the Election Commission, Shoukath polled 77,087 votes until the 19th round. Independent candidate Anvar has pulled off a shocker for both fronts, garnering 19,690 votes.

While the Congress could not gain the expected majority in Vazhikkadavu and Moothedam panchayats, Shoukath gradually raised his lead to 5,618 at Edakkara, where LDF hoped to give a strong fight, according to figures gathered from the polling agents.

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Anvar gave a scare to the UDF in the first round of counting of Nilambur bypoll as he polled over 1,500 votes. Congress got off to a shaky start even while maintaining a nominal lead as Anvar clearly showed his sway over voters of Vazhikadavu. He was able to restrict the lead of UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath to well below 1,000 in the first round, giving a strong opportunity for the LDF candidate M Swaraj. In the beginning of the second round, Shoukath’s lead crossed 1,200, calming the UDF camp.

Congress leaders elated after Aryadan Shoukath comfortable lead in Nilambur byelection. Photo: Manoj Chemancheri/Manorama

Shoukath also got a lion’s share of postal votes. The first round of counting showed Shoukath gaining a slight upper hand in Vazhikadavu panchayat but falling short of the expected majority. The panchayat is one of the strongholds of the UDF. P V Anvar had taken a lead of 35 votes in the 2021 assembly elections at Vazhikadavu.

Counting of votes began at 8 am at Chungathara Marthoma Higher Secondary School, after the strong room was opened at 7.30 am. The first five rounds will cover regions where the UDF is expected to perform strongly, followed by areas considered LDF strongholds. Updates will be available from 8 am onwards on the official Election Commission website: results.eci.gov.in.

1,74,667 voters cast their ballots, marking a turnout of 75.87% on June 19. According to the Election Commission, despite rain and adverse weather conditions, 1,74,667 out of 2,32,057 registered voters voted at the booths, while another 1,402 votes were received via postal ballots.

Among the ten candidates in the fray, the main contenders are Aryadan Shoukath (UDF), M Swaraj (LDF), Mohan George (NDA), and former MLA P V Anvar (Independent).

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All major fronts have expressed confidence in a win. UDF leaders project a lead of at least 15,000 votes for Shoukath, citing anti-incumbency and strong minority support. LDF sources, meanwhile, expect Swaraj to win by no less than 10,000 votes, pointing to their grassroots campaign led by ministers, MLAs, and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

The BJP-led NDA hinted at “underlying political shifts” in the constituency that could work in their favour. Nilambur’s independent candidate P V Anvar on Sunday alleged that nearly 10,000 “anti-Aryadan Shoukath votes” that were expected to favour him instead went to LDF candidate M Swaraj.

The byelection was triggered by a rift between former MLA P V Anvar and the CPM. As the Pinarayi Vijayan government nears the end of its second term, the Nilambur contest has turned into a prestige battle for both the CPM-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF.

Unlike most bypolls, the campaign in Nilambur saw a wide range of issues — from local concerns such as human-animal conflicts and welfare pensions to global issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict. Allegations also flew thick and fast.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who addressed several rallies in support of Swaraj, accused the Congress of “playing communal cards” to win the seat. The UDF denied the allegations, countering that it was the LDF that attempted to communalise the election in the Muslim-majority constituency.

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The opposition also recalled controversial remarks made by Vijayan in the past regarding Malappuram district. The ruling front, in turn, sought to corner the Congress over comments by AICC General Secretary K C Venugopal, who had alleged ‘bribery’ in the disbursal of welfare pension arrears — a remark that drew criticism during the campaign.