Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday condemned Israel and U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Iran sent Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Moscow on Monday to lobby Putin for more support against Israel’s act of war.

“The absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran has no basis and no justification,” Putin said to Araghchi during the meeting. “We have long-standing, good, reliable relations with Iran.

Russia and Iran are old allies. And while Putin has offered mediation and rhetorical reassurance, he has stopped short of fully joining the war or offering more concrete assistance, likely due to fear of further alienating President Trump and the U.S. in the midst of his own war on Ukraine.

On Sunday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a top Putin ally, noted in a series of X posts that “a number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.” This news, if true, could have cataclysmic implications.

Iran is reportedly still weighing retaliation options against Israel and the United States. And how much actual support Russia can and will provide remains to be seen.

Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk speaks as Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump looks on during a rally at the site of the July assassination attempt against Trump, in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 5, 2024. REUTERS/Carlos Barria Purchase Licensing Rights , opens new tab

Nov 6 (Reuters) – Donald Trump’s return to the White House after winning the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election may reshape American business. Much depends on whom he appoints as deputies and cabinet members, including the role of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and what tariffs he enacts. Following are some major issues and sectors to watch:

WHAT ROLE WILL ELON MUSK PLAY?

After some nudging from the world’s wealthiest person, Trump has said he would tap Tesla CEO Elon Musk to lead a new government efficiency commission. Musk has said at least $2 trillion could be cut from the $6.75 trillion federal budget. How that works could be a key to the next Trump administration.

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Does efficiency mean fewer rules and regulators? Musk has been a vocal critic, for instance, of federal review of his SpaceX rocket business. That could mean less oversight of self-driving cars (a Tesla business) or rocket launches and much more.

The two men are not completely in sync: Trump has said he won’t let California require all vehicles in the state go electric in a decade, but Musk runs the world’s most valuable EV company. “A rising tide raises all boats. So to the extent that Elon is able to hamper the vilification of EVs by a potential Trump administration, all the better,” said James Chen, former head of policy for Rivian and Tesla. How Musk would address conflicts of interest between his interests in autos, space, health, construction and artificial intelligence is not clear.

Trump has pledged to be a “crypto president”, a plan that may start with replacing industry opponent Gary Gensler, the Securities and Exchange Commission chair who has sued most of the industry , opens new tab – including Coinbase , Binance and Kraken. Gensler’s replacement is expected to review – and potentially tear up – accounting guidance and create industry exemptions from SEC rules. Musk, too is a crypto supporter, as is Silicon Valley Trump supporter Marc Andreessen and incoming Vice President J.D. Vance.

Musk is also a big proponent of carbon-free energy, with Tesla being a major supplier of solar systems and batteries. Trump has promised to kill the offshore wind industry and rescind all unspent funds under the Inflation Reduction Act – Biden’s signature climate law. But Trump faces dissent in his ranks: Republican lawmakers, oil companies and others see massive red state gains from the law. Musk has played into that, building his second U.S. electric vehicle factory in Texas, for instance.

TARIFFS

Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and 60% on Chinese-made products, which if enacted would affect the whole economy by pushing consumer prices higher. The Tax Foundation, a non-partisan think tank, calculated Trump tariffs would hike taxes by $524 billion annually, shrink GDP by at least 0.8%, and cut employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs potentially impacting retail workers, the largest private sector employer. He also suggested he might impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico.

Trump’s tariff proposals could reduce American consumers’ spending power between $46 billion and $78 billion each year, according to a National Retail Federation study.

Apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances and footwear would be the most affected categories, the study said. Retailers would shift operations outside of China to countries including Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam. Big-box stores like Walmart and Target would face higher supply chain costs, while supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and Publix, which minimally source from China, could benefit. Shipping and transportation experts say sweeping tariffs could initially bolster their business before depressing trade.

Tariffs loom over tech as well. In recent weeks, Trump has also heavily criticized the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act that has sought to partially subsidize companies building factories in the United States. Instead, he said the country should impose tariffs on chips coming into the country, especially from Taiwan’s TSMC.

Tariffs also would sharply raise costs for the renewable energy industries in the U.S., which rely heavily on Chinese components. “Trump actions without Congressional backing could include import tariffs of 10-20% (ex China), 60%-200% on Chinese imports which could impact the cost of renewable projects, particularly solar and storage projects,” according to an October research note from Bernstein.

And then there is the question of China’s retaliation. It is the world’s biggest soy importer and pork consumer, but it has diversified its food supply base since Trump’s tariffs in his first administration. Moreover, China failed to fully comply with an agreement to buy more U.S. agricultural goods that it signed with Trump in January 2020. Trump has vowed in his second term to impose 60% duties on imports from China, raising concerns that Beijing will retaliate by reducing imports of U.S. farm products.

OIL: DRILL BABY DRILL – BUT NOT IRAN

The United States is already the world’s biggest oil and gas producer, but Trump wants to clear away remaining obstacles. He’ll lift a freeze on new liquefied natural gas export permits, expand federal drilling auctions, speed up new pipeline permitting and try to reverse or weaken regulations aimed at cutting power plant and auto emissions. Trump’s support for the oil and gas industry could also lead him to temper his opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act, since oil companies are receiving some funding from it for carbon-free endeavors like carbon capture and sequestration.

The big oil policy wildcard is how Trump will treat rival exporters, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It is likely that Trump would relieve sanctions on Russian energy, but leave in place those on Iran, said Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston. Jesse Jones, an analyst with consulting firm Energy Aspects, expects even more. “We think that the impact of a Trump administration returning to a maximum pressure campaign on Iran could lead to a million barrel per day decrease in Iranian crude exports,” he said.

LABOR UNIONS

Organized labor made great strides under President Joe Biden, who joined a picket line with U.S. auto workers. The UAW wants to expand and in future strikes the federal government could be asked to intervene in a way that undercuts worker bargaining power, something Democrats have so far declined to do.

Republicans have typically been unfriendly to unions, but Trump has played a different game, reaching out to blue-collar workers. Strong support among many union workers may pressure Trump to protect those voters, said Anthony Miyazaki, a marketing professor at Florida International University. Still, his record of appointing leaders to the National Labor Relations Board resulted in a roll back of workers’ rights to form unions. If this cycle repeats, it could potentially reverse the gains unions have made since the pandemic, including successful organizing efforts at Starbucks and Amazon and other fledgling movements at Apple, REI and Trader Joe’s.

OTHER TOPICS INCLUDE:

FINANCE

ANTITRUST AND TECH

Trump may walk back the Department of Justice’s bid to break up Alphabet’s Google and prefer settling with companies over competition issues in mergers, rather than new trials, attorneys said. The nation’s tough, top merger cop, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, is almost certainly headed for the door. More broadly, Trump’s backers in Silicon Valley, including investors Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen and Tesla chief Elon Musk, want less regulation of new technology, from artificial intelligence to rockets. They have a champion in former venture capitalist Vance.

MEDIA: WATCH WHAT YOU SAY

Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos decided days before the vote that the paper would not endorse anyone for president, describing it as a principled move to regain credibility. Hundreds of thousands of subscribers left, many saying it was political cowardice. USA Today and the LA Times also declined to endorse a candidate. “The message is pretty clear right now,” said former FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler. “That is conceding to the tyrant in advance before you’re asked to,” said New York University School of Professional Studies adjunct associate professor Helio Fred Garcia, an author of two books about Trump.

During the campaign, Trump called on the Federal Communications Commission to strip ABC and CBS of their broadcast licenses. FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel has denounced Trump’s calls to revoke licenses for broadcast stations, citing free speech protections. But the independence of the FCC could be at risk if Trump follows through on a campaign pledge to bring regulatory agencies, such as the FCC, under presidential authority, Wheeler said. The president also could invoke his emergency powers under the Communications Act to exert control over broadcasters, citing “national security” concerns.

Even so, a new Trump presidency will likely give cable TV news networks like CNN, Fox News and MSNBC and news outlets including the New York Times and Washington Post the same big jolt to viewers and audience that his first term generated.

PHARMACEUTICALS

Jeremy Levin, CEO of biotech company Ovid Therapeutics and former chairman of biotech lobby group BIO, said he would be alarmed if Kennedy was given oversight over vaccines, and that other executives had also expressed concern. “Vaccine denialism, which is a central plank of RFK’s, is perhaps as dangerous as anything you can imagine,” he said, adding that President Trump’s previous appointments for the COVID vaccine effort and the FDA suggest to him that more moderate positions will win out. Some executives also were concerned that Kennedy’s influence could harm the U.S.’s reputation and ability to review new drugs.

reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Liz Hampton in Denver, Nora Eckert in Detroit and David Shepardson, Michelle Price in Washington; Tom Polansek and Karl Plume in Chicago, Dawn Chmielewski and Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles, Michael Erman and Siddharth Cavale in New York, Ahmed Aboulenein in Washington, Richard Valdmanis in Scarborough, Maine; Writing by Peter Henderson and Editing by Anna Driver and Elaine Hardcastle

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Ms. Harris wants to enshrine the protections of Roe v. Wade in federal law now that the Supreme Court has overturned it.

“When I am president of the United States, I will sign a law restoring and protecting reproductive freedom in every state,” she wrote in July. To do that, she would need not just Democratic majorities in Congress but also 50 senators willing to get rid of the filibuster, which requires 60 votes to pass most legislation. She confirmed in September that she supported eliminating the filibuster to pass an abortion rights bill.

Ms. Harris said last year that she and President Biden envisioned a law mirroring Roe. As modified by Planned Parenthood v. Casey, Roe broadly protected the right to abortion until a fetus could survive outside the womb but allowed bans after that point so long as they had exceptions for medical emergencies. “We’re not trying to do anything that did not exist before June of last year,” she told CBS News.

She told NBC News in October that she did not support “concessions” within an abortion-rights bill to win Republican support. “I don’t think we should be making concessions when we’re talking about a fundamental freedom to make decisions about your own body,” she said.

As a senator, she was a sponsor of a bill called the Women’s Health Protection Act that would have gone somewhat further than Roe by prohibiting some state-level restrictions, such as requiring doctors to perform specific tests or to have hospital admitting privileges in order to provide abortions. She reiterated her support for it in 2022.

She also argued, while running for president in 2019, that states with a history of restricting abortion rights in violation of Roe should be subject to “pre-clearance” for new abortion laws, meaning those laws would have to be federally approved before they could take effect. Her campaign did not respond to a request to confirm whether she would still support this if Congress codified Roe. (Without such codification, the proposal is moot.)

In the absence of congressional majorities capable of codifying Roe, Mr. Biden’s cabinet took administrative actions to try to limit the effects of state abortion bans, and Ms. Harris has indicated support for those actions.

The Department of Health and Human Services told hospitals in 2022 that a law pertaining to emergency rooms, the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act, obligates doctors to perform an abortion if they believe it is needed to stabilize a patient. (That guidance is subject to legal challenges on which the Supreme Court has so far declined to rule.) In April, the same department announced a rule to shield many abortion patients’ medical records from investigators and prosecutors.

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.

Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.

Donald Trump has boasted about his ties with strongman leaders other United States presidents would have kept at arm’s length, but this does not mean his potential retaking of the Oval Office next week will be toasted in Moscow, Pyongyang, Tehran or Beijing.

Foreign policy issues on the Resolute Desk’s in-tray include whether Trump can make good on his claim that he can end the war in Ukraine started by Vladimir Putin, dealing with a widening conflict in the Middle East in which the U.S. has a key role, North Korea’s nuclear threats and a trade tussle with China.

Amid concern that Washington would lurch toward a more isolationist foreign policy should Trump win on Tuesday, Newsweek asked experts what they thought his victory would mean for four countries considered adversaries or rivals.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment.

China

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on November 9, 2017. Another Trump presidency could see a heightened tensions between Beijing and Washington, experts told Newsweek. Then-U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on November 9, 2017. Another Trump presidency could see a heightened tensions between Beijing and Washington, experts told Newsweek. FRED DUFOUR/Getty Images

Trump’s first administration contained China hawks, and during his first term, Trump slapped tariffs and other barriers to tackle what he said were Beijing’s unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.

According to Lyle Goldstein, director for Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities, Beijing is wary of a Trump White House return.

“There is some possibility that the relationship could take a positive turn if Trump is more inclined to strike pragmatic deals with Beijing and less inclined towards directly supporting Taiwan,” Goldstein told Newsweek.

“My sense is that Beijing would react by trying to appeal to Trump’s pragmatic side but would also steel itself for the more likely intensification of tensions,” he said.

Beijing shows little sign of altering its stance either on its ties with Moscow or its belligerence in the South China Sea, including drills around Taiwan, the self-governing island it claims as its own, which Beijing could invade to prove it.

However, Goldstein said if the Trump administration embraced the One China policy, “Beijing would reciprocate by lowering tensions—both in the Strait and also in the South China Sea.”

Zhiqun Zhu, a political science professor at Bucknell University, said a Trump presidency would see him continue or even escalate his trade war.

“One can expect some retaliation from China, and bilateral tensions will rise,” he told Newsweek.

“Xi is likely to take advantage of Trump’s ego and make some symbolic concessions in trade to Trump, such as buying more agricultural products from the U.S. and simultaneously seek Trump’s reciprocity in other areas such as Taiwan or the South China Sea.”

Russia and the War in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and then-President Donald Trump at the G20 Summit on November 30, 2018. Kremlin propagandists have championed Trump’s return to the White House. Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and then-President Donald Trump at the G20 Summit on November 30, 2018. Kremlin propagandists have championed Trump’s return to the White House. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Trump has repeatedly said he would end the war in Ukraine within a day were he to retake office. Trump’s praise for Putin during the war, calling the Russian president a “genius” at the invasion’s start and “smart” as recently as October 25, amplify concerns about what his return to the White House means for U.S. support for Kyiv.

“Trump has indicated a strong preference for Russia over Ukraine in both words and deeds,” Robert Orttung, research professor of international affairs at the George Washington University, told Newsweek.

“But his policies are out of step with traditional U.S. national interests and will create strong pushback across the political spectrum and from the intelligence and national security communities,” Orttung said. “These groups are rightly skeptical of Russian intentions. Under Trump, the U.S. would appear weak, divided, and easily manipulated by dictators.”

Following their September meeting in New York, Trump said he had a good relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky, but he also reiterated his warm ties with Putin.

Simon Schlegel, senior Ukrainian analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Trump has made it clear he wants to resolve the war quickly and could initiate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine even before he takes office after winning.

“All of this, of course, is very worrying for Ukraine,” he told Newsweek. “Ukrainians know very well there is no easy way out of this and that it’s going to mean very painful decisions for the Ukrainian government which the Zelensky presidency is not very good at taking, and which will be necessary if Trump wins.

“There’s also a bit of wishful thinking around Donald Trump’s possible next presidency that his foreign policy has been so erratic, and so guided by personal friendships and personal grudges, that if he would try to negotiate with Putin and Putin would let him run into a wall, then he would put all his support behind Ukraine.”

“A lot of Ukrainians find consolation in the unpredictability of what Trump is going and also because it is not clear what Kamala Harris winning means for Ukraine,” Schlegel added.

Iran

Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty

During Trump’s presidency, tensions between Washington and Tehran soared after he pulled the U.S. out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.

Two years later, Iran issued an arrest warrant for Trump and his aides after the killing of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq.

Hamidreza Azizi, a research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said there is no unified view in the Islamic Republic about what a Trump victory might mean. However, the dominant opinion among Tehran’s political elite “is that the situation is going to get worse for Iran.”

Azizi said this is due to Trump’s history of “maximum pressure” on Iran, his alliance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his support for Israel “and his unpredictability.”

A second group in Iran believes that the overarching hostility between Tehran and Washington will remain, regardless of who is in the White House. However, a minority hopes that a Trump presidency would be better for Iran “because he’s more open to business, and if you are going to make a deal with Trump, it would be easier with him than with Kamala Harris,” Azizi said.

The repercussions of U.S.-Iranian relations will be felt across the Middle East. Tehran backs Hamas in Gaza, which Israel has bombarded following the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023, attacks.

The conflict has widened to include Hezbollah in Lebanon, whose leaders Israel has targeted, while the U.S. and the United Kingdom are targeting other Iranian proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, following the group’s attacks on Red Sea shipping.

“With Trump, there is a winner and a loser. There’s no gray zone, and there’s not a diplomatic zone, really,” said Gene Moran, a national security expert and former adviser to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, “so I think we might see a more brash approach with Iran.”

“I think there would be certainly tougher words,” Moran told Newsweek. “We could see Trump take more aggressive action in cutting off funding more completely. I think Biden has allowed money to move in ways that probably could have been prevented more aggressively.”

The signals Trump has sent so far could encourage Netanyahu to take the next step in the conflict with Iran between the election and taking the oath of office.

“My fear is that in that scenario—even in the period between November and January—you’re going to see an actual war between Iran and Israel,” Azizi said.

North Korea

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un talk in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019. There is speculation over what another Trump presidency would mean for ties between Washington and… Then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un talk in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019. There is speculation over what another Trump presidency would mean for ties between Washington and Pyongyang. More BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/Getty Images

As the first U.S. president to ever step inside North Korea, Trump told podcast host Joe Rogan that he “got along great” with the secretive state’s leader.

But Trump’s view of Kim Jong Un as both “little rocket man” and “wingman” has reinforced concerns about his attitude toward Pyongyang, which test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday—five days before the U.S. election.

Karl Friedhoff, a fellow for Asia Studies at the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, said that if Trump were elected, there would be little interagency coordination, which Pyongyang could leverage.

“I think we’re likely to see chaos,” Friedhoff told Newsweek.”We’ll see a roller coaster vacillating from very high tensions to highly choreographed personal diplomacy between leaders.”

Friedhoff said that when Kim and Trump last met in Vietnam in February 2019, Pyongyang came in unprepared to make any deal, but “that won’t be the case this time around.

“They’ll be much better prepared with a negotiating package and will seek to exploit all of Trump’s weaknesses. Those negotiations will be a real wild card for Trump’s presidency and the region.”

South Korea is the linchpin of the U.S. alliance architecture, and Friedhoff said that Trump has been “steadily trying to claw that pin loose.”

During his first presidency, the presence of 28,000 American troops in South Korea prompted Trump to accuse Seoul of “free-riding” on U.S. military might.

The current agreement expires next year, but in October, the U.S. and South Korea announced a new cost-sharing agreement for U.S. forces in South Korea that both sides were keen to complete ahead of a possible Trump administration, CNN reported.

“The most extreme nonwar result would likely be a South Korean nuclear weapons program coming online within the Trump presidency, and the ripple effects of that program washing up on the shores of Japan,” said Friedhoff.

“The development of such a program would be extremely risky in the time between the program being discovered—and it will be discovered—and those weapons becoming operable.”