Exclusive: Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces could come soon, U.S. officials say
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Live updates: Iran attacks U.S. base in Qatar, Trump calls the retaliatory strike ‘very weak’
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said he has requested a briefing for top lawmakers in Congress on the situation in Iran. Several Democrats have questioned the discrepancy between the assessment of the U.S. intelligence community on Iran and Trump’s claim that Iran was nearing completion.
He then accused the Trump administration of hiding information related to Iran from Congress. Several Democrats have questioned the discrepancy between the assessment of the U.S. intelligence community on Iran, which said it wasn’t close to creating a nuclear weapon, and Trump’s claim that Iran was nearing completion.
“And it’s not clear to me what the administration is hiding from the Congress and from the American people,” Jeffries said. “If they have a case to make, come up to Capitol Hill and make it.”
Asked for comment, the White House pointed to remarks this morning from press secretary Karoline Leavitt who told reporters that Trump officials did call Democrats about the situation in Iran.
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Iran fires missiles at US airbase in Qatar, Doha says attack intercepted, no casualties
Iran’s military said it carried out a missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. airbase in Qatar. Explosions were heard across the Qatari capital following Tehran’s threat to retaliate. Iran had been warned by Washington not to retaliate or face massive military action. Qatar, situated just across the Gulf from Iran, had shut its airspace after receiving the advance warning from Iran. Bahrain also shuts airspace after Iranian strike against US Al U deid air base. US Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq activates air defences against potential attack, military sources say.Main US military base in Syria on alert for possible attack by Iran or Iran-aligned militia groups, Syrian security source says. The attack came shortly after a Western diplomat told Reuters there had been a credible threat to a U.s. base in the Gulf state following the unprecedented airstrikes on Iran’s uranium enrichment programme. The Iranian military said the attack was “devastating and powerful” but U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called it a ‘provocation’
Iran informed US via diplomatic channels ahead of attacks on Qatar base, senior regional source tells Reuters
Bahrain also shuts airspace after Iranian strike against US Al Udeid air base in Qatar
US Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq activates air defences against potential attack, military sources say
Main US military base in Syria on alert for possible attack by Iran or Iran-aligned militia groups, Syrian security source says
DOHA/ISTANBUL/TEL AVIV, June 23 (Reuters) – Iran’s military said it carried out a missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. airbase in Qatar on Monday after explosions were heard across the Qatari capital following Tehran’s threat to retaliate for U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear sites.
The Iranian military said the attack was “devastating and powerful” but U.S. officials said no U.S. personnel were killed or injured in the attack on the airbase, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East.
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Iran, which had been warned by Washington not to retaliate or face massive U.S. military action, had informed the U.S. via two diplomatic channels hours ahead of the attack, as well as Qatari authorities, a senior regional source told Reuters.
Qatar’s defence minister told Al Jazeera its air defences had intercepted missiles directed at the Al Udeid air base, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East.
Iran had issued threats to retaliate against the United States after U.S. bombers dropped 30,000-pound bunker-busters on Iranian underground nuclear facilities at the weekend, joining Israel’s air war against Tehran, and President Donald Trump mooted the possibility of the Iranian government being toppled.
The attack came shortly after a Western diplomat told Reuters there had been a credible threat to a U.S. military base in the Gulf state following the unprecedented U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s uranium enrichment programme.
A source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Qatar, situated just across the Gulf from Iran, had shut its airspace after receiving the advance warning from Iran.
Bahrain, another U.S.-allied Gulf Arab state just to the north of Qatar, said it had also shut its airspace after the Iranian strike against the Al Udeid base.
In addition, the U.S. Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq had activated its air defence system out of concern for a potential attack, military sources said.
The main U.S. military base in Iraq’s western neighbour Syria was also on full alert for possible attack by Iran or Iran-aligned militia groups, a Syrian security source said.
Qatar, a small, wealthy Gulf Arab state, had earlier announced it had closed its airspace temporarily to ensure the safety of residents and visitors. That followed an advisory from the U.S. embassy in Qatar to Americans to shelter in place , out of what it said was “an abundance of caution”.
Two U.S. officials said Washington had assessed that Iran could carry out attacks targeting American forces in the Middle East soon, although the U.S. was still seeking a diplomatic resolution that would see Tehran forgo any reprisal.
Earlier on Monday, Israel bombed a political prison in Tehran, in a renewed demonstration of its willingness to strike not only beyond military and nuclear targets but key pillars of Iran’s ruling system.
Despite Iran’s threats to challenge oil shipments from the Gulf, oil prices fell 4% in volatile trading , suggesting traders doubted the Islamic Republic would follow through on any action that would disrupt global supplies.
Item 1 of 7 Traces are seen in the sky after Iran’s armed forces say they targeted The Al-Udeid base in a missile attack, as seen from Doha, Qatar, June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer [1/7] Traces are seen in the sky after Iran’s armed forces say they targeted The Al-Udeid base in a missile attack, as seen from Doha, Qatar, June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Stringer Purchase Licensing Rights , opens new tab
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as Tehran sought backing from one of its last major power friends for its next steps.
‘VIVA LA LIBERTAD’
Israel made clear that its strikes on Evin prison and other targets in Tehran were intended to hit the Iranian ruling apparatus broadly, and its ability to sustain power.
“Viva la libertad!” Foreign Minister Gideon Saar wrote on X, accompanying a video of an explosion at a building with a sign identifying it as an entrance to Evin prison.
Reuters could not immediately verify the video posted by Saar, although other videos showing the aftermath of the strike on the prison were verified as genuine.
Iran’s IRIB state broadcaster released video showing rescue workers combing the flattened wreckage of a building at the prison, carrying a wounded man on a stretcher. The Mizan news outlet of Iran’s judiciary said urgent action was being taken to protect the health and safety of inmates there.
Evin has long been Iran’s primary prison for housing political detainees and security prisoners, as well as the site of executions that remain strong memories for the opposition. Several high-profile foreign prisoners are also held there.
Israel’s military said it had also struck Revolutionary Guard command centres responsible for internal security in the Tehran area.
The military was “currently striking, with unprecedented force, regime targets and governmental repression bodies in the heart of Tehran,” Defence Minister Israel Katz said in a statement.
Much of Tehran’s population of 10 million has fled after 10 days of bombing. Tasnim news agency reported a strike at an electricity feeder station in the Evin neighbourhood. Power company Tavanir reported some areas in the capital saw electricity cuts.
LIMITED OPTIONS
Since Trump joined Israel’s campaign by dropping massive bunker-buster bombs on Iranian nuclear production sites on Sunday morning, Iran has repeatedly threatened to retaliate.
“Mr Trump, the gambler, you may start this war, but we will be the ones to end it,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters, said on Monday in a recorded, English-language video statement.
The Trump administration maintains that its aim is solely to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme, not to open a wider war. But in a social media post on Sunday, Trump spoke of toppling the hardline clerical rulers who have been Washington’s principal foes in the Middle East since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Five insiders with knowledge of the discussions said efforts had been ramped up to anoint a successor for Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His son Mojtaba, 56, and Hassan Khomeini, 53, grandson of the revolution’s founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, are now seen as the frontrunners , they said.
Reporting by Reuters; writing by Peter Graff and Mark Heinrich; editing by Bernadette Baum, Timothy Heritage and Deepa Babington
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Iranian Calculus and Response Options following the US strikes
The United States struck and severely damaged three Iranian nuclear sites on June 21. Israel has conducted its own strike campaign into Iran, targeting the nuclear program, military and security sites, energy infrastructure, and key leaders. The US and Israeli efforts combined amount to the most serious blow to the Islamic Republic since its war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s. CTP-ISW is tracking early reports of Iranian missile attacks on US forces in Qatar and Iraq at the time of this publication. The following is an assessment that examines these factors and what key decisions Tehran is facing and how it will likely proceed. The assessment assumes that Khamenei will maintain his past calculus and decision-making tendencies. If Khamenei concludes that the Iranian nuclear program,. missile arsenal, and Axis of Resistance are no longer critical to regime survival, he may acquiesce to US demands. Khamenei may instead therefore, calculate that the best approach to preserving his regime, which is his foremost priority, is continuing to fight and resist.
June 23, 2025
NOTE: CTP-ISW is tracking early reports of Iranian missile attacks on US forces in Qatar and Iraq at the time of this publication. CTP-ISW will cover these events in our twice daily Iran Updates found here.
Iranian leaders are currently calibrating their response to the United States’ striking their nuclear program. How they ultimately respond will depend on what they conclude is necessary to preserve the Islamic Republic and ensure its longevity. That conclusion will, in turn, derive from how Iranian leaders understand their current situation and their risk tolerance. The following is an assessment that examines these factors and what key decisions Tehran is facing and how it will likely proceed.
Context
The United States struck and severely damaged three Iranian nuclear sites on June 21, using Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker busters and Tomahawk cruise missiles.[1] The United States targeted the two primary Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow as well as a third site that stored processed uranium.[2] The US strikes likely destroyed a considerable portion of the Iranian enriched uranium stockpile and cascades of centrifuges. Though Iran appears to have moved some of its nuclear material and equipment to other undisclosed sites beforehand, the US strikes have likely disrupted the Iranian nuclear program considerably.[3] The US strikes came as Israel has conducted its own strike campaign into Iran, targeting the nuclear program, military and security sites, energy infrastructure, and key leaders. The US and Israeli efforts combined amount to the most serious blow to the Islamic Republic since its war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s.
Senior Iranian officials have responded by vowing retaliation against the United States. Unspecified US officials have said that Iran could attack US forces in the Middle East in the coming days, while others have suggested that an attack could be imminent.[4]
Iranian Considerations
Iranian leaders have limited options in responding to the United States. They could, of course, grant concessions on their nuclear program as well as possibly on their missile capabilities and extraterritorial activities, as the United States has demanded. But Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would likely consider such concessions to be tantamount to surrender and another step toward the weakening of his regime. Khamenei has long relied on the Iranian nuclear program, missile arsenal, and so-called “Axis of Resistance” as his chief means of projecting power and threatening adversaries. Compromising on these fundamental tenets of Iranian strategy would substantially erode Iranian military power. Khamenei may be especially averse to such concessions now, while his regime faces the unprecedented challenge of simultaneous US and Israeli strikes. Some Iranian officials appear amenable to compromise with the United States, given that the nuclear program, missiles, and proxy and partner forces have demonstrably failed to deter attacks on Iran.[5] But Khamenei himself has shown no sign of considering such concessions at this time. Khamenei may instead therefore, calculate that the best approach to preserving his regime, which is his foremost priority, is continuing to fight and resist.
This assessment assumes that Khamenei will maintain his past calculus and decision-making tendencies. Khamenei faces an unprecedented circumstance, however, which could lead him to break from his past patterns of behavior. If Khamenei concludes that the Iranian nuclear program, missile arsenal, and Axis of Resistance are no longer critical to regime survival, he may acquiesce to US demands.
Assuming Khamenei decides to continue fighting, he will likely base his ultimate decision on several factors in mind. These factors include:
His desire to avoid further escalation with the United States. Khamenei seeks to rebuild deterrence vis-à-vis the United States and Israel but without inviting further escalation. Khamenei, therefore, needs to balance between using sufficient force to deter while also avoiding any attack that drives the United States and Israel to hit back harder. Striking this balance will be extremely difficult—if not impossible. The disruption to the military command. Khamenei will need to calibrate his response without the key generals on whom he has relied for decades for advice. The Israeli killing of senior Iranian military officers deprives Khamenei of these trusted subordinates and induces a temporary disruption to the chain of command.[6] Khamenei will likely face friction here, as he lacks the same personal rapport with the new cadre of commanders. The precarious domestic situation. Khamenei is considering a major military undertaking against the United States, while his regime is increasingly unstable domestically. Israeli strikes have targeted Iranian energy infrastructure and sites tied to domestic surveillance and social control.[7] These strikes have caused severe economic disruption and degraded the regime’s ability to repress its increasingly restive population. The overall degradation of Iranian Capabilities. Iran has lost many of its levers of power over the past 19 months. The Axis of Resistance is ill-positioned to fight a large-scale war against the United States, as it is exhausted from many months of fighting Israel.[8] Israeli strikes have, moreover, degraded Iranian air defenses and missile capabilities, making the regime more vulnerable than it has been in years to conventional attack.[9]
Key Decisions
Khamenei will face two key decisions as he contemplates how to respond to the United States. He must decide firstly how to retaliate (i.e., through what means). Khamenei has four real response options in this context.
Missile and drone strikes. Iran could fire a large volume of missiles and drones at US forces in the Middle East. Iranian missile forces are badly degraded, as already noted, as Israel has destroyed a significant number of the Iranian missile launchers.[10] But Iran still has enough capacity to summon a large volley of projectiles targeting US forces, especially in Iraq and around the Arabian Peninsula.[11] Militia attacks. Iran could order its proxy and partner militias to attack US forces across the region. Iran would likely look to its Iraqi militias to threaten US bases in Iraq and Syria, and look to the Houthis to threaten US naval assets around the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. These groups have previously performed these roles in support of Iranian objectives.[12] Iran has equipped both parties with advanced strike capabilities, such as missiles and drones, that they could use to target US forces.[13] Naval aggression. Iranian naval forces have emerged largely unscathed from the war with Israel. Iranian officials have openly threatened to “close the Strait of Hormuz” in recent days, which in practice would likely involve using naval assets and coastal systems to attack international shipping.[14] The Iranian Artesh and IRGC have prioritized developing their force projection capabilities in recent years in order to threaten commerce further abroad.[15] Terror operations. Iran and Hezbollah have spent years developing a network of covert cells abroad, possibly including in some Western and Latin American countries. Iranian officials have threatened explicitly to activate these cells to conduct terror attacks in the United States in retaliation for the US strikes.[16] There is precedent for Iran trying to use covert cells to conduct terror attacks on US soil.[17]
Khamenei must separately decide how much risk he is prepared to accept. Any attack against US interests and personnel will risk escalating the war further, regardless of how much force is used. Khamenei can mitigate that risk by opting for a less dramatic attack. He can alternatively decide to impose a high cost on the United States, which would carry a very high risk of escalation. Regardless of what decision he makes, any attack on US interests and personnel carries the risk of imposing serious losses, which Khamenei would accept beforehand.
Conclusion
The most likely Iranian response at this time is a tempered missile or militia attack on US forces in the Middle East. The most dangerous Iranian response would include a combination of the four options described above and seek to impose a serious cost on the United States. Even a tempered missile or militia attack would risk US casualties, which should be unacceptable for Washington. Regardless of which path Khamenei chooses, the United States must be prepared to defend its interests and personnel and take appropriate actions to deter Iranian attacks on the American people and homeland.
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg9r4q99g4o
[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-says-entrances-tunnels-irans-isfahan-site-hit-by-us-strike-2025-06-22/
[3] https://nypost.com/2025/06/23/world-news/satellite-images-show-trucks-lined-up-at-irans-fordo-nuclear-facility-before-us-air-strikes/
[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-retaliation-against-us-forces-could-come-soon-us-officials-say-2025-06-23/ ; https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/exclusive-iranian-retaliation-against-us-forces-most-probably-hours-away
[5] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/06/inside-plot-push-khamenei-aside/683286/
[6] https://time.com/7293886/iranian-generals-scientists-targets-killed-by-israeli-strikes/
[7] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/18/world/middleeast/israel-iran-strikes-facilities-map.html ; https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-attack-news/card/iran-s-revolutionary-guard-confirms-israel-killed-its-intelligence-chief-TyadaKWHo9IU3GPtFC1A?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjghoFgco2hSNDK8aEfRAZUQHmwGqp9atgP5KttysE2glrZSdIJVTJ6I7grFhY%3D&gaa_ts=6859854d&gaa_sig=4XOguJMzmkYBqn95E6PrsD2pYce71BMdRt4_DtTzA3C2zafaYzo_p7eK27kAkXrtYf8crXrtZ8PLaNwJ5E8rDQ%3D%3D
[8] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the-deafening-silence-of-irans-proxies
[9] https://www.axios.com/2025/06/22/trump-israel-iran-strikes-air-defenses ; https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/iran-weapons-us-bases.html
[10] https://www.jns.org/israel-destroys-iranian-missile-launchers-used-in-morning-attack/
[11] https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2025/06/israels-attack-and-the-limits-of-irans-missile-strategy/
[12] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/cost-inaction-yemen; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-25-2023; https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/pivot-to-offense-how-iran-is-adapting-for-modern-conflict-and-warfare/
[13] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/pivot-to-offense-how-iran-is-adapting-for-modern-conflict-and-warfare/; https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/yemens-houthis-and-the-expansion-of-irans-axis-of-resistance/
[14] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/23/irans-parliament-approves-blocking-strait-of-hormuz.html
[15] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/pivot-to-offense-how-iran-is-adapting-for-modern-conflict-and-warfare/
[16] https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/u-s-officials-iran-threatened-terror-attacks-inside-u-s-242058821681
[17] https://www.aipac.org/resources/26-years-since-amia-bombing-3zjsy-xzces-c9peh
Exclusive: Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces could come soon, U.S. officials say
U.S. believes Iran could carry out retaliatory attacks targeting American forces in the Middle East soon. The U.S is still seeking a diplomatic resolution that would see Tehran forgo any attack. Iran has threatened to retaliate after U.s. bombed its nuclear sites over the weekend. The Pentagon has moved some aircraft and ships from bases in the Mideast that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack. The United States has a sizeable force deployed to the region, with nearly 40,000 troops in the region.
WASHINGTON, June 23 (Reuters) – The United States believes Iran could carry out retaliatory attacks targeting American forces in the Middle East soon, although the U.S. is still seeking a diplomatic resolution that would see Tehran forgo any attack, two U.S. officials said on Monday.
One of the officials, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity to discuss the assessment, said Iran’s retaliatory attack could happen within the next day or two.
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Iran has threatened to retaliate after U.S. bombed its nuclear sites over the weekend.
U.S. officials have warned Iran against hitting back at the U.S. and President Donald Trump said after the strikes that any retaliation by Iran against the U.S. would be met with a force far greater than that used in the weekend U.S. attacks.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, said on Sunday that the U.S. military had increased protection of troops in the region, including in Iraq and Syria.
The United States has a sizeable force deployed to the Middle East, with nearly 40,000 troops in the region. Some of them operate air defense systems, fighter aircraft and warships that can detect and shoot down incoming enemy missiles but their positions are vulnerable to attack.
Reuters reported last week that the Pentagon had moved some aircraft and ships from bases in the Middle East that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack. That included aircraft being removed from the 24-hectare Al Udeid Air Base, in the desert outside the capital Doha. It is Middle East’s largest U.S. base and houses around 10,000 troops.
Tehran has vowed to defend itself and retaliate.
But, perhaps in an effort to avert all-out war with the United States, it had yet to target U.S. bases or choke off a quarter of the world’s oil shipments that pass through its waters by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Reporting by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali; Editing by Alistair Bell
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Exclusive-Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces could come soon, U.S. officials say
Exclusive-Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces could come soon, U.s. officials say. One of the officials, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Iran’s retaliatory attack could happen within the next day or two. Iran has threatened to retaliate after U. s. bombed its nuclear sites over the weekend. U. S. has a sizeable force deployed to the Middle East, with nearly 40,000 troops in the region.
By Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States believes Iran could carry out retaliatory attacks targeting American forces in the Middle East soon, although the U.S. is still seeking a diplomatic resolution that would see Tehran forgo any attack, two U.S. officials said on Monday.
One of the officials, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity to discuss the assessment, said Iran’s retaliatory attack could happen within the next day or two.
Iran has threatened to retaliate after U.S. bombed its nuclear sites over the weekend.
U.S. officials have warned Iran against hitting back at the U.S. and President Donald Trump said after the strikes that any retaliation by Iran against the U.S. would be met with a force far greater than that used in the weekend U.S. attacks.
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The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, said on Sunday that the U.S. military had increased protection of troops in the region, including in Iraq and Syria.
The United States has a sizeable force deployed to the Middle East, with nearly 40,000 troops in the region. Some of them operate air defense systems, fighter aircraft and warships that can detect and shoot down incoming enemy missiles but their positions are vulnerable to attack.
Reuters reported last week that the Pentagon had moved some aircraft and ships from bases in the Middle East that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack. That included aircraft being removed from the 24-hectare Al Udeid Air Base, in the desert outside the capital Doha. It is Middle East’s largest U.S. base and houses around 10,000 troops.
Tehran has vowed to defend itself and retaliate.
But, perhaps in an effort to avert all-out war with the United States, it had yet to target U.S. bases or choke off a quarter of the world’s oil shipments that pass through its waters by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
(Reporting by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali; Editing by Alistair Bell)