Column | Trump gets a NATO victory lap, but U.S. leadership is on shaky ground
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to hold as Trump vents frustration with both sides
U.S. President Donald Trump expresses frustration with both sides. Israeli finance minister vows that “Tehran will tremble.” Israel accuses Iran of launching missiles into its airspace. Iran denies allegation, but explosions boomed and sirens sounded across northern Israel in the morning. The conflict, now in its 12th day, began with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites.. Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani says the Islamic Republic emerged “proud and steadfast” from the aggression by Israel and the United States. The White House called the assessment “flat-out wrong.’“This proves one simple truth more clearly than ever: diplomacy and dialogue are the only path to resolving the unnecessary crisis,” he said, according to a statement from the U.S., Iran and the European Council on Foreign Relations. The deal got off to a rocky start in line in line with the condition of anonymity with military regulations.
The early report issued Monday by the Defense Intelligence Agency was described to The Associated Press by two people familiar with it. They were not authorized to address the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
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The report also contradicts statements from Trump, who has said the Iranian nuclear program was “completely and fully obliterated.” The White House called the assessment “flat-out wrong.”
After the truce was supposed to take effect, Israel accused Iran of launching missiles into its airspace, and the Israeli finance minister vowed that “Tehran will tremble.”
The Iranian military denied firing on Israel , state media reported, but explosions boomed and sirens sounded across northern Israel in the morning, and an Israeli military official said two Iranian missiles were intercepted.
Trump told reporters at the White House before departing for a NATO summit that, in his view, both sides had violated the nascent agreement. He had particularly strong words for Israel, a close ally, while suggesting Iran may have fired on the country by mistake.
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But later he said the deal was saved.
“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!” Trump said in his Truth Social post.
Indeed, Netanyahu’s office said he held off on tougher strikes against Iran after speaking to Trump.
Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday the Islamic Republic emerged “proud and steadfast” from the aggression by Israel and the United States.
“This proves one simple truth more clearly than ever: diplomacy and dialogue are the only path to resolving the unnecessary crisis over Iran’s peaceful program,” he said.
A dozen tense days
The conflict, now in its 12th day, began with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, saying it could not allow Tehran to develop atomic weapons and that it feared the Islamic Republic was close. Iran has long maintained that its program is peaceful.
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If the truce holds, it will provide a global sense of relief after the U.S. intervened by dropping bunker-buster bombs on nuclear sites — a move that risked further destabilizing the volatile region.
Trump phoned Netanyahu after the American bombing on Sunday and told him not to expect additional U.S. military attacks and that he should seek a diplomatic solution with Iran, a senior White House official said.
Trump’s position was that the U.S. had removed any imminent threat posed by Iran, according to the official, who was not authorized to comment publicly about sensitive diplomatic talks and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Israel followed up the U.S. air attacks by expanding the kinds of targets it was hitting.
After Tehran launched a limited retaliatory strike Monday on a U.S. military base in Qatar, Trump announced the ceasefire.
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A protracted conflict could have a broad economic impact if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping channel.
China, which is Iran’s largest trading partner and only remaining oil customer, condemned the U.S. attacks and said it was concerned about a “spiral of escalations” without a ceasefire. Trump suggested the ceasefire would allow Iranian oil to continue to flow, saying on social media that China could keep purchasing crude from Iran.
Israel accuses Iran of violating the truce. Iran denies allegation
The deal got off to a rocky start.
An Israeli military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity in line with military regulations said Iran launched two missiles at Israel hours into the tenuous ceasefire. Both were intercepted, the official said.
Iranian state television reported that the military denied firing missiles after the start of the ceasefire — while condemning Israel for predawn strikes of its own.
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One of those attacks killed a high-profile nuclear scientist, Mohammad Reza Sedighi Saber, at his father-in-law’s residence in northern Iran, Iranian state TV reported.
Trump’s frustration with the early morning strikes was palpable as he spoke to reporters before departing for the Hague. He said both sides had violated the agreement and used an expletive to hammer home his point.
“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f—- they’re doing,” he said.
Breakthrough announced after hostilities spread
Netanyahu said Israel agreed to the ceasefire with Iran, in coordination with Trump, after the country achieved all of its war goals, including removing the threat of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
In a televised statement, Netanyahu said late Tuesday that Israel took out top generals and nuclear scientists and destroyed nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan and the Arak heavy water reactor. He thanked Trump for his help.
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It’s unclear what role Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s leader, played in the talks. He said earlier on social media that he would not surrender.
Trump said Tuesday that he wasn’t seeking regime change in Iran, two days after floating the idea himself in a social media post.
“I don’t want it,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One. “Regime change takes chaos and, ideally, we don’t want to see much chaos.”
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News that the U.S. and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. He called the direct talks and discussions through intermediaries “promising.”
Before the ceasefire was announced, Israel’s military said Iran launched 20 missiles toward Israel. Police said they damaged at least three densely packed residential buildings in the city of Beersheba. First responders said they retrieved four bodies from one building and were searching for more. At least 20 people were injured.
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Outside, the shells of burned out cars littered the streets. Broken glass and rubble covered the area. Police said some people were injured while inside their apartments’ reinforced safe rooms, which are meant to withstand rockets but not direct hits from ballistic missiles.
The attack followed a limited Iranian missile assault Monday on a U.S. military base in Qatar in retaliation for earlier American bombing of its nuclear sites . The U.S. was warned by Iran in advance, and there were no casualties.
Elsewhere, U.S. forces shot down drones attacking the Ain al-Assad base in the desert in western Iraq and a base next to the Baghdad airport, while another one crashed, according to a senior U.S. military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly.
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No casualties were reported, and no group claimed responsibility for the attacks in Iraq. Some Iran-backed Iraqi militias had previously threatened to target U.S. bases if the U.S. attacked Iran.
Conflict has killed hundreds
In Israel, at least 28 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the war. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 974 people and wounded 3,458 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists.
The group, which has provided detailed casualty figures from Iranian unrest, said of those killed, it identified 387 civilians and 268 security force personnel.
The U.S. has evacuated some 250 American citizens and their immediate family members from Israel by government, military and charter flights that began over the weekend, a State Department official said.
There are roughly 700,000 American citizens, most of them dual U.S.-Israeli citizens, believed to be in Israel.
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Trump gets a NATO victory lap, but U.S. leadership is on shaky ground
U.S. President Donald Trump is at a NATO summit in The Hague. The military alliance’s member states would pursue a massive increase in defense spending. The effort reflects Europe’s newfound willingness to take its security in its own hands. But there are other disturbances in the force, including Trump’s impatience with the war in Ukraine and occasional embrace of the Kremlin’s talking points. The U.S.-led effort in Ukraine could lead to shortages in air defense, in tank brigades and missile stocks, a senior NATO official says, so you could see more rationing of munitions. The United States and its allies are reeling from the disruptive second term of President Trump, who took office on January 20, 2017, and has vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with the European Union and other allies. The White House says it is “committed’ to the NATO alliance, but that it came with the understanding that Europe would take “a bigger share of this burden” of military spending.
The effort reflects Europe’s newfound willingness to take its security in its own hands and ramp up the continent’s military-industrial base. Successive U.S. presidents have urged NATO partners to increase their defense outlays, but no one has been louder and more insistent about the matter than Trump. On Tuesday, as he transited across the Atlantic, Trump shared private messages on Truth Social from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that hailed the U.S. president’s galvanizing effect.
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“Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe, and the world,” Rutte said in the messages, which were later confirmed as authentic. “You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done,” he went on, echoing Trump’s own rhetoric.
“It was not easy but we’ve got them all signed onto 5 per cent!” Rutte trumpeted. “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.”
This all may be music to the ears of an American leader who exults in flattery. Trump has long questioned the value of U.S. membership in NATO, an alliance he’s cast as a drain on U.S. resources. In briefings Tuesday, Rutte said that Trump had “total commitment” to NATO, but that it came with the understanding that Europe would take “a bigger share of this burden” of military spending.
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But there are other disturbances in the force. Trump’s impatience with the war in Ukraine and occasional embrace of the Kremlin’s talking points have ruffled European feathers. European officials are hoping to secure more direct U.S. support for Ukraine’s war effort, though they may have to muster the necessary funds themselves. It’s not clear whether Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who infamously clashed with Trump in the Oval Office and whose nation’s resistance to Russian invasion has dominated recent NATO summits. The two were kept at separate tables during a Tuesday dinner hosted by the Dutch royal family.
“Our friends among NATO countries understand the delicacy of the situation and are trying to do everything possible to ensure Ukraine is present at the summit, while at the same time avoiding antagonizing Trump,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, who chairs the Ukrainian parliament committee on foreign policy, to my colleagues.
On the battlefield, an end to U.S. aid wouldn’t lead to the immediate surrender of Ukraine’s forces, but an extended, ill-fated rearguard action. “Our judgment is it would not lead to a total collapse in 12 months. You’d still have another year probably, but Ukraine … would be remarkably lean,” said a senior NATO official, speaking to my colleagues on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters. “They would be fighting from a defensive situation almost all the time,” he said. “We’d be looking at shortages in air defense, in tank brigades and missile stocks, so you could see more rationing of munitions.”
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Trump is likely to prioritize leaving the summit with a simple message — that his pressure tactics and insistence compelled NATO partners to get in line. But those methods and his transactional view of U.S. alliances have caused a degree of damage, too. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba chose to skip the NATO meeting, even though his country is NATO’s most important partner outside the alliance. Difficulties with the United States over Trump’s trade war and tariffs, as well as Tokyo’s concerns about Washington potentially urging high-spending Japan to pony up even more for its defense budget, may underlie his absence.
More broadly, traditional U.S. allies are variously reeling from Trump’s disruptive second term. Multiple opinion polls show tanking global attitudes toward Trump’s America. A recent Pew survey of 24 nations found that many had negative attitudes toward Trump. “Majorities in most countries also express little or no confidence in Trump’s ability to handle specific issues, including immigration, the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S.-China relations, global economic problems, conflicts between Israel and its neighbors, and climate change,” noted Pew. Those numbers were particularly striking in Europe.
A separate study by the Institute for Global Affairs, which is part of the Eurasia Group consultancy, found that many in Western Europe, especially young people, want their governments to stand up to Trump. Only 28 percent of Western Europeans “see the U.S. as at least a ‘somewhat reliable’ guarantor to European security over the next decade — down 25 percentage points from last year,” noted the IGA’s report.
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A May analysis conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations offered a glimpse of a continent that is reckoning with its inexorable drift away from the old understandings of the transatlantic relationship. “Almost overnight, the bloc’s far right has gone from passionate defenders of national sovereignty against the threat of a federalist E.U. to the vanguard of a transnational movement that advocates a sort of civilizational nationalism,” observed the ECFR’s Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev. “Conversely, many mainstream parties — or, rather, the ex-globalists — have recast themselves as the new sovereigntists, defending national dignity against what they perceive to be ideological interference from Washington.”
Leaders including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Emmanuel Macron of France have been most blunt about Europe’s need to find its own geopolitical feet. Battered by Trump’s own nationalist instincts and rhetoric, they are piecing together an incipient greater European foreign policy, which could eventually diverge in significant ways from Washington.
Explosive kills 7 Israeli soldiers in Gaza inside an armored vehicle, military says
Explosion was a particularly deadly incident for Israel’s military inside Gaza. Over 860 Israeli soldiers have been killed since the war began with the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack. One soldier was seriously wounded Tuesday by weapons fire, the military said. The deadly attack came as the Palestinian death toll inside Gaza passed 56,000.. A local Palestinian official said Israeli forces shot and killed a 66-year-old Palestinian woman in east Jerusalem. Israeli police said they were investigating the death of a woman from east Jerusalem who was pronounced dead at a checkpoint.
Also in the area of Khan Younis area, one soldier was seriously wounded Tuesday by weapons fire, the military said.
Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, said on its Telegram channel it had ambushed Israeli soldiers taking cover inside a residential building Tuesday in the southern Gaza Strip.
Some of the soldiers were killed and other injured after they were targeted by a Yassin 105 missile and another missile south Khan Younis, Hamas said. Al-Qassam fighters then targeted the building with machine guns.
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It was not immediately clear whether the two incidents were the same.
The deadly attack came as the Palestinian death toll inside Gaza passed 56,000.
Gaza’s Health Ministry said Tuesday that Israel’s 21-month military operation in Gaza has killed 56,077 people.
Hamas in its 2023 attack on southern Israel killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 others hostage . Many hostages have been released by ceasefire or other agreements.
The death toll is by far the highest in any round of Israeli-Palestinian fighting. The ministry doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants but says more than half of the dead were women and children.
The ministry said the dead include 5,759 who have been killed since Israel resumed fighting on March 18, shattering a two-month ceasefire.
Israel says it only targets militants and blames civilian deaths on Hamas, which operates in heavily populated areas. Israel says over 20,000 Hamas militants have been killed, though it has provided no evidence to support that claim. Hamas has not commented on its casualties.
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On Wednesday, a local Palestinian official said Israeli forces shot and killed a 66-year-old Palestinian woman in east Jerusalem. Israeli police said they were investigating the death of a woman from east Jerusalem who was pronounced dead at a checkpoint after arriving with “serious penetrating injuries” on Tuesday night.
Marouf Al-Refai, the Palestinian official, said Israeli forces stormed Shuafat refugee camp overnight, killing Zahia Obeidi with a shot to the head around 10 p.m. and seizing her body thereafter.
Israeli forces arrested her husband and sons later that night, said Refai. It was not clear by morning whether they had been released.
Here’s how Iran could retaliate after US strikes on its nuclear program
Iran has spent decades building multi-tiered military capabilities at home and across the region that were at least partly aimed at deterring the United States from attacking it. A decision to retaliate against the U.S. and its regional allies would give Iran a far larger target bank and one that is much closer than Israel. Iran could also choose to attack key oil and gas facilities in those countries with the goal of exacting a higher price for U.N. involvement in the war. A drone attack on two major oil sites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 — claimed by the Houthis but widely blamed on Iran — briefly cut the kingdom’s oil production in half. Iran has dispersed its nuclear program across the country to several sites, including underground facilities, while the Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites would only delay or reconstitute its ability to develop a weapon. It could be days or weeks before the full impact of the Israeli and Israeli strikes is known. But experts have long warned that joint U.K.-U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites is unlikely.
A decision to retaliate against the U.S. and its regional allies would give Iran a far larger target bank and one that is much closer than Israel, allowing it to potentially use its missiles and drones to greater effect. The U.S. and Israel have far superior capabilities, but those haven’t always proven decisive in America’s recent history of military interventions in the region.
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Ever since Israel started the war with a surprise bombardment of Iran’s military and nuclear sites on June 13, Iranian officials from the supreme leader on down have warned the U.S. to stay out, saying it would have dire consequences for the entire region.
It should soon be clear whether those were empty threats or a grim forecast.
Here’s a look at what Iran’s next move might be.
Targeting the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which some 20% of all oil traded globally passes, and at its narrowest point it is just 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide. Any disruption there could send oil prices soaring worldwide and hit American pocketbooks.
Iran boasts a fleet of fast-attack boats and thousands of naval mines that could potentially make the strait impassable, at least for a time. It could also fire missiles from its long Persian Gulf shore, as its allies, Yemen’s Houthi rebels , have done in the Red Sea.
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The U.S., with its 5th Fleet stationed in nearby Bahrain, has long pledged to uphold freedom of navigation in the strait and would respond with far superior forces. But even a relatively brief firefight could paralyze shipping traffic and spook investors, causing oil prices to spike and generating international pressure for a ceasefire.
Attacking US bases and allies in the region
The U.S. has tens of thousands of troops stationed in the region, including at permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Arab Gulf countries just across the Persian Gulf from Iran — and much closer than Israel.
Those bases boast the same kinds of sophisticated air defenses as Israel, but would have much less warning time before waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones. And even Israel, which is several hundred kilometers (miles) further away, has been unable to stop all of the incoming fire .
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Iran could also choose to attack key oil and gas facilities in those countries with the goal of exacting a higher price for U.S. involvement in the war. A drone attack on two major oil sites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 — claimed by the Houthis but widely blamed on Iran — briefly cut the kingdom’s oil production in half .
Activating regional allies
Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance — a network of militant groups across the Middle East, is a shadow of what it was before the war ignited by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel out of the Gaza Strip — but it still has some formidable capabilities.
Israel’s 20-month war in Gaza has severely diminished the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups, and Israel mauled Lebanon’s Hezbollah last fall, killing most of its top leadership and devastating much of southern Lebanon, making its involvement unlikely.
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But Iran could still call on the Houthis, who had threatened to resume their attacks in the Red Sea if the U.S. entered the war, and allied militias in Iraq. Both have drone and missile capabilities that would allow them to target the United States and its allies.
Iran could also seek to respond through militant attacks further afield, as it is widely accused of doing in the 1990s with an attack on a Jewish community center in Argentina that was blamed on Tehran and Hezbollah .
A sprint toward nuclear arms
It could be days or weeks before the full impact of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites is known.
But experts have long warned that even joint U.S. and Israeli strikes would only delay Iran’s ability to develop a weapon, not eliminate it. That’s because Iran has dispersed its program across the country to several sites, including hardened, underground facilities.
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Iran would likely struggle to repair or reconstitute its nuclear program while Israeli and U.S. warplanes are circling overhead. But it could still decide to fully end its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and abandon the the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003 and tested a nuclear weapon three years later, but it had the freedom to develop its program without punishing airstrikes.
Iran insists its program is peaceful, though it is the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. U.S. intelligence agencies and the IAEA assess Iran hasn’t had an organized military nuclear program since 2003.
Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East but does not acknowledge having such weapons.
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Swiss village evacuated over threat of rockslide
A rock mass on a plateau overhead has “accelerated so rapidly that it threatens to collapse,’ officials say. Brienz/Brinzauls is about 40 kilometers (25 miles) southwest of Davos. The centuries-old village straddles German- and Romansch-speaking parts of the eastern Graubünden region.
Farm work in the area was also being halted, and livestock owners moved their animals out of nearby pastures due to early warning signs on Sunday.
Authorities said the region is closely monitored by early-warning systems in the town, which is no stranger to such evacuations: Villagers had been ordered out of Brienz/Brinzauls in November and in June two years ago — before a huge mass of rock tumbled down the mountain , narrowly missing the village.
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The mountain and the rocks on it have been moving since the last Ice Age. While glacier melt has affected the precariousness of the rocks over millennia, local authorities say melting glaciers due to “man-made” climate change in recent decades hasn’t been a factor.
The centuries-old village straddles German- and Romansch-speaking parts of the eastern Graubünden region and sits at an altitude of about 1,150 meters (about 3,800 feet). Today, it has under 100 residents.
A leading Swiss insurers’ association issued Tuesday a preliminary estimate of damages related to the submerging of the southwestern village of Blatten on May 28, putting the figure at some 320 million Swiss francs (about $393 million) — more than 80% of which was attributed to damages to buildings and movable property.