A new projection of Washington’s looming “X date,” when the US government will be unable to pay its bills because of the debt-ceiling cap, finds that the deadline is likely to fall between Aug. 15 and Oct. 3 unless Congress acts.

The new projection from the Bipartisan Policy Center released Wednesday is one of the most detailed looks so far at when the full faith and credit of the United States could be exhausted.

It’s a deadline sure to be closely watched by Wall Street because of the potential dire economic costs. A breach could mean a financial crisis and an economic recession.

Wednesday’s report also underlined the difficulty in making precise predictions, listing multiple factors that could inject further uncertainty in the weeks ahead.

The group also said that with billions flowing in and out of government coffers every day it is hard to predict patterns: “No one — not even the Treasury Secretary — can know precisely when the X date will arrive.”

The updated deadline is also likely to further GOP resolve to pass Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill Act” as soon as possible with Republicans committing to using the complicated mega-bill as their vehicle to stave off a default.

President Donald Trump is seen at a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in The Hague, on Tuesday. (JOHN THYS/AFP via Getty Images) · JOHN THYS via Getty Images

President Trump even told lawmakers on Tuesday before the release not to go on vacation and “lock yourself in a room if you must” to get the bill passed.

The recently released Senate version of the bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, compared with $4 trillion in the House version. The current debt ceiling is $36.1 trillion and was reached in January with policymakers able to delay the X date through what are known as “extraordinary measures.”

Wednesday’s Bipartisan Policy Center report found that three of those main measures — where the government can temporarily access money to pay its bill — are largely exhausted.

“Congress must address the debt limit ahead of the August recess,” said Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center, added in a statement alongside the release.

“Congress can’t afford to inject any additional uncertainty into the mix,” she added.

The latest prediction is a refinement in the timing from the group’s analysts after a May analysis found the day of reckoning could arrive between August and early October and a March analysis that suggested a window of mid-July to early October.

This latest projection also comes as the potentially market-rattling deadline gets closer and the agency with the most insight into the issue — the Treasury Department — is offering only broad guidance.