International relations expert John Mearsheimer, in his book ‘The Tragedy of Great Power Politics’, explains through offensive realism that when a state feels its existence is threatened, it prefers to strike first to maintain a balance of power. Great powers are always striving to gain power and deter their rivals because no power can ensure that its neighbours won’t harm them. This is a tragic situation because it leads to conflict and war, even if great powers desire peace. However, in the context of Israel and Iran, this conflict isn’t just between two militaries; it’s also challenging economic structures and global stability.

Looking back at history, from 1950 to 1979, Israel and Shah-ruled Iran shared very strong diplomatic relations. Iran supplied oil to Israel and there was cooperation between the intelligence agencies of both countries (Mossad and SAVAK). This partnership was part of America’s strategy during the Cold War, aimed at containing the Soviet Union.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution overturned the balance of power in West Asia. Israel and Iran, once close allies, are now entangled in an ideological conflict. After the Iranian Revolution, this transformed into an ideological war, further intensified by the nuclear issue. Currently, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran raises three major questions that will determine not only the stability of West Asia, but also the direction of the global economy.

The first question, split into two parts, is: Will Iran now accelerate its nuclear weapons program? And will Israel be able to stop it from doing so? The answer to this remains up in the air. On one hand, Iran will likely fast-track its nuclear program, viewing this attack as a direct assault on its sovereignty. On the other hand, it will be difficult for Israel to stop it, especially since it carried out the attack alone.

The second question is: Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and a third of its natural gas trade passes? The third question is: Will Israel, in retaliation, destroy oil production centers located on Iran’s Kharg Island? If the answer to any of these questions is a definitive yes, it could prove catastrophic for the global economy. Background of the Attack Before seeking answers to these questions, it is crucial to understand the background of the attack. An Israeli attack on Iran was almost certain, especially after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on May 31st that Iran had accumulated over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity. The report was not made public until June 11th but by then, Mossad had already obtained this information. The Israeli government could not ignore this. The groundwork for this attack was laid in 2018 with Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and reimpose sanctions on Iran.

Under this agreement, made by the Obama administration in 2015, Iran had halted uranium enrichment. However, since 2019, Iran has again accelerated its nuclear program. Can Israel Stop Iran? Dr Uday Pratap Singh, Assistant Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at ISDC, Allahabad University, Prayagraj, states that after Israel’s precise attacks on Iran and the open threats to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, pressure on Iran has increased. Iran might now feel compelled to rapidly advance its nuclear weapons program to bolster its own strength. However, Iran’s military, economic and diplomatic weaknesses still persist.

Dr Khinvraj Jangid, Associate Professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs and Director of the Israel Study Centre at OP Jindal Global University, stated that it currently seems unlikely for Iran to rapidly advance its nuclear program. The Israeli attacks have been highly organized and decisive. Experts believe that the strikes on several of Iran’s nuclear sites have severely impacted its infrastructure. However, a full assessment of this damage will take some time.

Israeli intelligence agencies maintain precise knowledge of Iran’s nuclear program activities. The ‘bunker-buster’ bomb, which the US possesses but Israel does not, is now considered the most effective military deterrence option. Israel’s intelligence agencies and the US military presence continue to be a significant warning for Iran. Even if these efforts can’t completely halt Iran, they certainly create an atmosphere of fear. It’s particularly noteworthy that threatening to assassinate a country’s leader goes against international norms and could further worsen the situation. Therefore, Iran might avoid taking any major, hasty steps for now but the threat will persist in the future unless the world collectively devises a robust strategy.

Aim to Weaken Iran’s Critical Scientific and Engineering Human Resources Shrestha Chakraborty, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bennett University, states that the June 13, 2025 attack by Israel was not solely aimed at Iran’s military and nuclear sites. Its objective was also to weaken Iran’s critical scientific and engineering human resources. The targeted experts possessed decades of experience and cannot be easily replaced. While this is a deliberate strategy, its potential outcome is that Iran might now accelerate its nuclear program even more rapidly than before.

Jangid stated that Israel initially only attacked nuclear sites but has now also targeted some oil installations. If Iran continues missile attacks on Israeli civilian areas, Israel could launch major strikes on sensitive locations like Kharg. The likelihood of a widespread regional war is low. Arab nations, Turkey and other major players do not wish to get involved in this conflict. Their priority is regional stability, not supporting Iran. This attack also strengthens the belief among Iranian hardliners who see nuclear weapons as the sole guarantee of Iran’s sovereignty and security. With negotiations stalled, trust eroded and military sites targeted, it’s natural for Iran to believe that developing nuclear weapons is the only path left.

Iran already possesses a large stockpile of 60 per cent enriched uranium and it could secretly develop nuclear weapons. Some of its key facilities, like Fordow, are built so strongly inside mountains that they are extremely difficult to damage with conventional bombs. In such a scenario, the traditional theory of deterrence is weakened because Iran currently lacks nuclear weapons to deter Israel and Israel feels it cannot delay any longer.

What happens if the Strait of Hormuz is closed? Shrestha Chakraborty states that if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil and LNG (gas) prices could skyrocket, as 20 per cent of the world’s oil and 30 per cent of its gas pass through this choke point. Countries like India, China and Japan would be directly hit. This would drive up the costs of transportation, food and building materials, leading to rapid inflation. In the long run, the world would shift towards alternative routes and renewable energy but for now, a deepening global economic crisis is inevitable.

Dr Uday Pratap Singh believes that if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it would trigger a global energy crisis for several days. This region is the main conduit for roughly 20 per cent of the world’s crude oil and 30 per cent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. In such a scenario, oil prices could surge to 120 dollars per barrel, leading to increased inflation, impacting industrial production and causing turmoil in the global market. Elevated costs for insurance, shipping and supply would further disrupt trade. While navies might eventually reopen the strait, fear and instability would have already spread by then.

In the long term, the world will pivot towards alternative energy sources and routes. However, Iran itself would suffer the most, as its own oil and gas sales would halt. Simultaneously, it would face international penalties. In essence, such a move could be self-destructive for Iran.

Dr Khinvraj Jangid, Associate Professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs and Director of the Israel Study Centre at OP Jindal Global University, stated that Iran will currently avoid adopting this option, as it would directly harm its own economy. The impact on the US economy would be limited. China, being Iran’s largest crude oil importer, would not want disruptions in global supply. This is why this strategy could prove self-destructive for Iran. Jangid believes that following Israel’s recent attacks, the idea that Iran should pursue nuclear weapons might gain further traction within the country.

However, it also remains to be seen whether the current regime can withstand this pressure. In the coming months, perhaps years, it will be determined how internally stable the Iranian regime is and how open it is to international diplomacy.

Middle East could split into two blocs Dr Uday Pratap Singh states that if Israel attacks Iran’s Kharg Island, which is the hub for 90 per cent of its oil exports, it would be a direct assault on Iran’s economic backbone. Such a move could escalate tensions across the entire region. Iran, in retaliation, might strike oil infrastructure and ships belonging to other Gulf nations. This would further drive up oil prices, potentially exceeding 120 dollars per barrel and fuel global inflation. It would be akin to Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

In such a scenario, countries like China could intervene diplomatically and other Gulf nations might be drawn into the conflict. If this happens, it wouldn’t just be a fight between Iran and Israel; the entire Middle East could split into two factions, similar to the Russia-NATO dynamic, impacting the entire world.

Shrestha Chakraborty states that Kharg Island is Iran’s most crucial oil export hub. If Israel attacks it, Iran would suffer severe economic losses and customers like China would also be affected. This would cause oil prices to surge again. Iran could retaliate, directly targeting Israel or US bases.

Additionally, it might threaten to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Israel could also target Iran’s domestic terminals such as Abadan or Mahshahr but any such move could drag the entire West Asia into war. Will fight proxy war through Hezbollah, Houthi or Shia fighters Iran has allies like Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Iraqi Shia militias that can fight its ‘proxy wars’. Dr Khinvraj Jangid believes that Iran-backed proxy groups began attacking Israel as early as October 2023. However, Hezbollah’s position has now weakened – it hasn’t launched any rocket attacks in northern Israel for the past eight days.

The Houthi rebel attacks continue but they haven’t posed a serious threat to Israel’s fundamental security infrastructure. Therefore, while there are signs of regional instability, the likelihood of it escalating into full-blown war is currently low. Dr Uday Pratap Singh states that the strength of several of these organisations has diminished recently. Hezbollah has suffered heavy losses and Hamas is fighting for its existence. The Houthis and Iraqi militias still possess the capacity to launch attacks but they cannot alter the overall direction of the region. However, limited conflicts and symbolic retaliatory strikes from these groups are possible. Due to the precise retaliatory strategy of Israel and its allies, the probability of a major regional war breaking out is low. This means the threat persists but its intensity is not what it once was.

Shrestha adds that Iran is now more isolated than before, which could lead to a more aggressive stance. Proxy attacks are possible but they will be limited. While Iran has proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, their strength is not what it used to be. After October 7, 2023, Israel delivered significant blows to Hamas, Hezbollah and others. The situation in Syria is also not favorable for Iran.

Chances of Dialogue on the Verge of Ending Dr Uday Pratap believes that the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel has virtually destroyed the Iran nuclear deal. The sound of missiles has now drowned out any possibility of negotiations. Iran is under immense pressure from all sides and in such a situation, it will prioritize accelerating its nuclear program over dialogue. This violence has shattered trust, empowered hardliners and weakened the chances of negotiation. Countries like India, which desire stability in the region, will now have to reconsider their strategies. At least in the near future, forging strong diplomatic ties with Iran seems difficult. Everything will now be confined to security and economic necessities.

Shrestha states that it’s now difficult to maintain distance from this conflict. American forces have been deployed, citizens are being evacuated and President Trump has issued a stern warning. The US is no longer acting solely against Iran’s nuclear program but also for the security of global trade and maritime routes.

Britain, Germany and Canada, among other countries, have also jointly issued warnings. This means that the US has now become not just a single nation but a leader in maritime security. Major Challenge for the US: Stopping Iran Dr Uday Pratap Singh states that America faces the significant challenge of both deterring Iran and avoiding entanglement in a new war. If Iran rapidly moves towards nuclear weapons and threatens routes like Hormuz, the US will need to ensure maritime security. President Donald Trump has also repeatedly stated that he wishes to avoid direct war but a show of strength is necessary. In this scenario, the US and its allies will have to deploy their navies, share intelligence and continue diplomatic talks behind the scenes. Clearly, maintaining strong pressure while avoiding direct confrontation will be the most crucial strategy today.

Return of Nuclear Deal Difficult Attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites and harsh statements have nearly erased diplomatic trust. While some European countries desire negotiations, it seems improbable in the current climate. The likelihood of new sanctions and political confrontation has increased. Therefore, a return to the nuclear agreement appears difficult in the near future.

Dr Khinvraj Jangid, Associate Professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs and Director of the Israel Study Centre at OP Jindal Global University, stated that these countries are extremely sensitive. Europe is particularly concerned and is actively trying to reach some kind of agreement with Iran to manage the situation before the US takes any military action

While China might be able to weather some of this instability, its dependence on Iranian oil is a significant concern. For India, a surge in crude oil prices could exacerbate inflation and widen the trade deficit. Fluctuations in the Oil Market Following Israel’s attack, international oil prices have seen an increase and the likelihood of oil prices remaining below 60 dollars per barrel in 2025 has diminished significantly. Analysts suggest that this strike was not solely aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. For Netanyahu, it also served as a means to gain domestic political advantage and divert attention from criticism regarding Gaza.

Deeply impacted by this attack, Iran could escalate the instability. If it were to close the Strait of Hormuz or halt oil exports from Kharg Island, it could severely cripple the global supply chain, leading to dramatic increases in oil prices and widespread economic disruption.

Impact On India The Iran-Israel conflict has profoundly shaken the entire world, particularly nations reliant on Gulf countries for energy, such as India, China and Europe. A significant portion of these countries’ energy needs, in the form of oil and gas, transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

Dr Uday Pratap states that if this vital waterway is disrupted or if shipping faces delays, it will lead to increased inflation, supply chain disruptions and a potential slowdown in economic growth. Although these nations have begun preparing for renewable energy and alternative routes, the risk of an economic shock remains. Therefore, there’s an urgent need to rapidly diversify energy sources, secure maritime routes and strengthen diplomatic efforts.

Shrestha concurs, emphasizing that the economic structures of India, China and Europe are deeply dependent on West Asian oil and gas. If supplies are interrupted, these countries will face widening trade deficits, pressure on their currencies (Rupee or Yuan) and rising inflation. Even though these nations are working on oil stockpiles, supply diversification and green energy initiatives, they cannot entirely escape the impact of this crisis.

Iranian officials ‘plan to REMOVE Ayatollah as supreme leader’ as cowering Khamenei begs Putin for help and cuts off contact from within his secret bunker due to fears he will be assassinated

Iranian officials are said to be considering removing their supreme leader from power after the United States waded in to Israel’s growing conflict with Iran on Sunday.

Two sources involved in talks told The Atlantic that officials are now contemplating deposing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but said it’s just ‘one idea’ among many ‘plots’.

‘Everybody knows Khamenei’s days are numbered,’ one official told the American outlet. ‘Even if he stays in office, he won’t have actual power.’

Iranian officials had sought to displace the 86-year-old supreme leader even before the U.S. intervention due to his age and longstanding health concerns, the sources said.

Iran has vowed to inflict ‘serious’ damage in retaliation to the American strikes on nuclear facilities across the territory.

But analysts remain unconvinced that the country has the military might to keep up kinetic action against both Israel and the U.S., with the conflict now in its 11th day.

However, Vladimir Putin today vowed to back Iran and condemned ‘groundless’ aggression against its ally.

Iranian officials are said to be considering removing their supreme leader from power after the United States waded in to Israel’s growing conflict with Iran on Sunday. Two sources involved in talks told The Atlantic that officials are now contemplating deposing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Vladimir Putin today vowed to back Iran and condemned ‘groundless’ aggression against its ally after the U.S. joined Israel in striking nuclear facilities on Sunday. Pictured: Putin and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shake hands during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on June 23, 2025

Pictured: Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant on June 19, 2025 (top), and Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), northeast of the city of Qom, after US strikes on the site June 22

The Kremlin last night accused the United States of opening a Pandora’s box with its strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, warning it was gambling with the ‘safety and well-being of humanity as a whole’.

Russia had already condemned Israel’s strikes against Iran, and has said that targeting nuclear facilities risks throwing the region into greater chaos.

Prior to the attacks, the Kremlin had been eyeing a role in mediating between Iran and Israel.

‘This is an absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran,’ Putin told Abbas Araghchi, who travelled to Moscow on Monday seeking support in mediation over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Putin called recent strikes ‘unjustified’ and added that Russia was ‘making efforts to provide assistance to the Iranian people.’

The comments came as Israel again struck the Fordow nuclear facility and ‘government targets’ in Tehran, with no sign of the conflict abating.

Khamenei, who last spoke to his nation in a televised address on Wednesday, has hidden away in a bunker, suspending electronic communications in a bid to toughen up security amid swirling assassination threats, three Iranian officials told the New York Times.

But, despite the ramped up protection effort Iran’s Ayatollah has named three potential successors to take over his role in case he is killed, according to reports.

A three-man committee from a top clerical body, appointed by Khamenei himself two years ago to identify his replacement, has accelerated its planning in recent days since Israel attacked Iran and threatened to assassinate the veteran leader, five insiders with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters.

Khamenei is being regularly briefed on the talks, according to the Iranian sources who requested anonymity to discuss highly sensitive matters.

He has gone into hiding with his family and is being guarded by the Vali-ye Amr special forces unit of the Revolutionary Guards, a top security official said.

Pictured: A huge cloud of smoke billows over Tehran following an Israeli strike today

The Kremlin last night accused the United States of opening a Pandora’s box with its strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, warning it was gambling with the ‘safety and well-being of humanity as a whole’. Pictured: Donald Trump wears a MAGA cap as he sits in the Situation Room of the White House

The ruling establishment will immediately seek to name a successor to Khamenei if he is killed, to signal stability and continuity, according to the sources who acknowledged that predicting Iran’s subsequent political trajectory was difficult.

A new leader will still be chosen for his devotion to the revolutionary precepts of the Islamic Republic’s late founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, according to one insider, who is close to Khamenei’s office and privy to succession discussions.

At the same time, the top echelon of power is also considering which candidate might present a more moderate face to ward off foreign attacks and internal revolts, the person said.

Two frontrunners have emerged in the succession discussions, the five insiders said: Khamenei’s 56-year-old son Mojtaba, long seen as a continuity choice, and a new contender, Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the father of the Islamic revolution.

Khomeini, a close ally of the reformist faction that favours the easing of social and political restrictions, nonetheless commands respect among senior clerics and the Revolutionary Guards because of his lineage, the sources added.

‘I once again humbly express that this small and insignificant servant of the Iranian people stands ready to proudly be present on any front or scene you deem necessary,’ the 53-year-old said in a public message of support to the supreme leader on Saturday, hours before the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Khomeini has come into the frame as a serious candidate this month amid the conflict with Israel and America because he could represent a more conciliatory choice internationally and domestically than Mojtaba Khamenei, the five people said.

By contrast, Khamenei hews closely to his father’s hardline policies, according to the insiders who cautioned that nothing had been determined, candidates could change and the supreme leader would have the final say.

However, with the military conflict continuing, it remains unclear whether any new leader could be chosen easily or installed securely or if he could assume the level of authority enjoyed by Khamenei, they added.

Israeli strikes have also killed several of Iran’s top Revolutionary Guards commanders, potentially complicating a handover of power as the elite military force has long played a central role in enforcing the supreme leader’s rule.

Khamenei’s office and the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body from which the succession committee was drawn, were not available to comment.

His son Mojtaba, also a cleric who has close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, was rumoured to be a front-runner.

But he is not among the selected candidates, officials reportedly told the newspaper.

It comes after Donald Trump raised the prospect of regime change in the country, despite several of his administration officials earlier stressing that US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites did not have that goal.

‘It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!’ Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Sunday.

Residents evacuate from an impacted site after a missile attack from Iran

Since Trump joined Israel’s campaign by dropping massive bunker-buster bombs on Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday morning, Iran has repeatedly threatened to retaliate.

The country said the US should expect ‘heavy consequences’ for its attacks, issuing a threat that its entry into the conflict with Israel will ‘expand the scope of legitimate targets’.

Earlier, a Iranian television mouthpiece warned that up to 50,000 American soldiers will be returned to Washington in ‘coffins’.

State TV anchor Mehdi Khanalizadeh accused Trump of choosing to ‘spill the blood of your soldiers’, before adding: ‘The US president in the Oval Office chose to take delivery of the coffins of up to 50,000 US soldiers in Washington.’

Trump declared last night that ‘monumental damage’ has been done ‘to all nuclear sites in Iran’.

The US president wrote on his Truth Social page that satellite images he obtained showed the Iranian nuclear facilities were ‘obliterated,’ and noted that the most damage ‘took place far below ground level.’

Iranian media then reported that Israel was carrying out new strikes on the Fordow nuclear facilities today, with Israeli media saying the IDF was targeting an access road at the site.

Meanwhile huge clouds of smoke towered over Tehran as Israel launched a wave of strikes ‘with unprecedented force’, including on a military headquarters killing ‘hundreds’ of guards members.

When Iran’s Supreme Leader emerges from hiding he will find a very different nation

40 minutes ago Share Save Kasra Naji Special Correspondent, BBC Persian Share Save

BBC

After spending nearly two weeks in a secret bunker somewhere in Iran during his country’s war with Israel, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, might want to use the opportunity of the ceasefire to venture out. He is believed to be holed up, incommunicado, for the fear of being assassinated by Israel. Even top government officials apparently have had no contact with him. He would be well advised to be cautious, despite the fragile ceasefire that the US President Donald Trump and the Emir of Qatar brokered. Though President Trump reportedly told Israel not to kill Iran’s supreme leader, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not rule it out. When – or indeed if – he does emerge from hiding, he will see a landscape of death and destruction. He will no doubt still appear on state TV claiming victory in the conflict. He will plot to restore his image. But he will face new realities – even a new era. The war has left the country significantly weakened and him a diminished man.

Murmurs of dissent at the top

During the war, Israel quickly took control of much of Iran’s airspace, and attacked its military infrastructure. Top commanders of the Revolutionary Guard and the army were swiftly killed. The extent of the damage to the military is still unclear and disputed, but the repeated bombings of the army and revolutionary guard bases and installations suggests substantial degradation of Iran’s military power. Militarisation had long consumed a vast amount of the nation’s resources. Iran’s known nuclear facilities that earned the country nearly two decades of US and international sanctions, with an estimated cost of hundreds of billions of dollars, are now damaged from the air strikes, although the full extent of this has been hard to assess. What was it all for, many are asking.

Getty Images The war has left Iran significantly weakened

A vast number of Iranians will singularly hold Ayatollah Khamenei, who first became leader in 1989, responsible for setting Iran on a collision course with Israel and the US that ultimately brought considerable ruin to his country and people. They will blame him for pursuing the ideological aim of destruction of Israel – something many Iranians don’t support. They will blame him for what they perceive as a folly – his belief that achieving nuclear status would render his regime invincible. Sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy, reducing a top oil exporter to a poor and struggling shadow of its former self. “It is difficult to estimate how much longer the Iranian regime can survive under such significant strain, but this looks like the beginning of the end,” says Professor Lina Khatib, a visiting scholar at Harvard University. “Ali Khamenei is likely to become the Islamic Republic’s last ‘Supreme Leader’ in the full sense of the word.”

Getty Images Ayatollah Khamenei, who became leader in 1989, has been accused of setting Iran on a collision course with Israel

There have been murmurs of dissent at the top. At the height of the war, one semi-official Iranian news agency reported that some top former regime figures have been urging the country’s more quiet religious scholars based in the holy city of Qom, who are separate to the ayatollah, to intervene and bring about a change in leadership. “There will be a reckoning,” according to Professor Ali Ansari, the founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. “It’s quite clear that there are huge disagreements within the leadership, and there’s also huge unhappiness among ordinary people.”

‘Anger and frustration will take root’

During the last two weeks, many Iranians wrestled with conflicted feelings of the need to defend their country versus their deep hatred of the regime. They rallied for the country, not by coming out to defend the regime, but to look after each other. There have been reports of vast solidarity and closeness. People in towns and villages outside urban areas opened their doors to those who had fled the bombardments in their cities, shopkeepers undercharged basic goods, neighbours knocked on each other’s doors to ask if they needed anything. But many people were also aware that Israel was probably looking for a regime change in Iran. A regime change is what many Iranians wish for. They may draw the line on a regime change engineered and imposed by foreign powers, however.

Getty Images Many Iranians may draw the line on a regime change engineered by foreign powers

In his nearly 40 years of his rule, Ayatollah Khamenei, one of the world’s longest reigning autocrats, has decimated any opposition in the country. Opposition political leaders are either in jail or have fled the country. Abroad, the opposition figures have been unable to formulate a stance that unites the opposition to the regime. They have been ineffectual in the establishment of any semblance of an organisation able to take over inside the country if the opportunity arises. And during the two weeks of war, when the collapse of the regime could have been a possibility, if the war went on relentlessly, many believed the likely scenario for the day after was not the takeover by the opposition, but the descent of the country into chaos and lawlessness. “It is unlikely that the Iranian regime will be toppled through domestic opposition. The regime remains strong at home and will ramp up domestic oppression to crush dissent,” says Prof Khatib.

Getty Images Few people in Iran think that the ceasefire brokered on Monday will last

Iranians are now fearing further clampdown by the regime. At least six people have been executed in the past two weeks since the start of the war with Israel on charges of spying for Israel. Authorities say they have arrested some 700 people on this charge. One Iranian woman told BBC Persian what she fears more than the death and destruction of the war is a regime that is wounded and humiliated turning its anger against its own people. “If the regime is unable to supply basic goods and services, then there will be growing anger and frustration,” says Prof Ansari. “I see it as a staged process. I don’t see it as something that, necessarily, in a popular sense, will take root until long after the bombing is over.” Few people in Iran think that the ceasefire brokered on Monday will last – and many believe Israel is not yet finished now that it has total superiority in the sky over Iran.

Iran’s ballistic missile silos

One thing that seems to have escaped the destruction are Iran’s ballistic missile silos that Israel found hard to locate as they are placed in tunnels under mountains throughout the country. The Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, said Israel launched its opening attack on Iran knowing that “Iran possessed around 2,500 surface-to-surface missiles”. The missiles that Iran fired caused considerable death and destruction in Israel. Israel will be concerned about the remaining possible 1,500 still in the hands of the Iranian side. There is also a serious concern in Tel Aviv, Washington and other Western and regional capitals that Iran may still rush to build a nuclear bomb, something it has continued to deny trying to do.

Getty Images President Trump reportedly told Israel not to kill Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Although Iran’s nuclear facilities have almost certainly been set back, and possibly rendered useless during the bombings by Israel and the US, Iran said it had moved its stockpile of highly enriched Uranium to a safe secret place. That stockpile of 60% Uranium, if enriched to 90%, which is a relatively easy step, is enough for about nine bombs, according to experts. Just before the war started, Iran announced that it had built another new secret facility for enrichment that was due to come on stream soon. The Iranian parliament has voted to sharply reduce its cooperation with the UN’s atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This still requires approval, but if it passes Iran would be one step away from exiting the nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty, the NPT – as hardliners supporting the supreme leader push for Iran’s breakout to build a bomb. Ayatollah Khamenei may now be confident that his regime has survived, just. But at the age of 86 and ailing, he also knows that his own days may be numbered, and he may want to ensure continuity of the regime with an orderly transition of power – to another senior cleric or even a council of leadership. In any case, the remaining top commanders of the Revolutionary Guard who have been loyal to the supreme leader may be seeking to wield power from behind the scenes. Top image credit: Pacific Press via Getty

Iran has today admitted its nuclear facilities were ‘badly damaged’ by US bombs after Donald Trump insisted they were ‘obliterated’ and lashed out at ‘fake’ news coverage suggesting he failed to deliver a knock-out blow.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei conceded there had been significant impact caused by American bunker-busting bombs at the country’s three main nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz.

It comes after Trump insisted the nuclear facilities were ‘obliterated’ and compared his airstrikes to the two nuclear bombs dropped on Japan at the end of World War II.

Meanwhile NATO chief Mark Rutte suggested Donald Trump dealt with Israel and Iran’s war in the Middle East like a ‘daddy’ who uses ‘strong language’ to stop two children fighting in a schoolyard.

Rutte has put on a deferential and even fawning display with the US president, calling his intervention in the conflict ‘decisive’ and labelling him a ‘man of strength but also a man of peace’.

Trump yesterday shared private messages from Rutte which also showed him gushing over the ‘extraordinary’ US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which the US leader said ‘obliterated’ the sites.

Live updates below

‘Windfarms are not exactly tanks and drones, are they?’

The first guest on tonight’s edition of Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is the armed forces minister, Luke Pollard.

Sophy asks him if Donald Trump’s public efforts to get NATO countries to spend more on defence has resulted in the 5% of GDP pledge today, and he replies: “Well, he’s certainly been making a case for increasing defence spending for quite some time.”

But he argues that actually “the new era of threats has largely made the argument persuasive”, pointing to Russia, Iran, and North Korea in particular.

“Getting to 5% in 2035 is a really big step for the alliance. But it’s not just what we spend, it’s how we spend it,” he continues.

What even is ‘resilience and security’?

Sophy notes that 1.5% of that spending is going on “resilience and security”, and she asks the minister exactly what that means.

Pollard replies that “NATO will be publishing the details shortly”, but the spending in there we will on “things that keep us safe as a homeland”.

Asked if spending on energy security – so renewable energy – is included in that, the minister says they need to “check that against the NATO criteria”, but the resilience part of the spending pledge will “cover a lot of different sectors”.

Sophy says to him: “Windfarms are not exactly tanks and drones, are they? And some people might look at this and think this is fiddling the books.”

Pollard does not deny this, and says: “There’s lots of different areas of government spend that could potentially fall within that.”