Consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, defying fears that President Trump’s tariffs could lead to higher inflation. Here’s why economists think that will change in the coming months. Photo Illustration: JJ Lin

KANANASKIS, Alberta—Leaders from some of America’s biggest trading partners traveled to the Group of Seven industrial nations summit in Canada this week hoping for deals with President Trump. They left empty-handed.

A meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ended with a pledge for more talks. After discussing trade with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen , Trump said he didn’t think the bloc was offering a fair deal. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney set a new 30-day timeline for a trade deal but couldn’t ink an agreement.

Maybe third time’s the charm? President Donald Trump said he’ll “probably” extend Tiktok’s sale deadline a third time. He signed an executive order in April, giving the app 75 days to sell itself to an approved buyer after he signed a similar order in January. TikTok went dark for a short period in the US in January before that deadline extension was announced.

The sale of TikTok would allow the app to continue operating in the US. Former President Joe Biden signed a law in 2024 that effectively banned the app in the US if TikTok’s China-based parent company, ByteDance, didn’t sell the app to an approved buyer by January.

Several bidders have voiced interest in purchasing the app. According to a Reuters report from March, Trump said a deal would be struck before the April deadline, but that deal never materialized. Trump also said at the time he’d consider reducing tariffs on Chinese goods if that country’s leaders agreed to a sale of the app.

If the app isn’t sold, here’s what US TikTokkers should expect.

Will I be able to download TikTok to my phone?

Under the law, app stores run by companies such as Apple and Google must remove an app from their stores or face civil penalties. That means you won’t be able to download the app to your device, and ByteDance won’t be able to issue updates to the app.

Will I still be able to access TikTok if I already have it?

If you already have the app downloaded to your device, yes. The law doesn’t make it illegal to have the app on your phone. Since app stores won’t be able to distribute updates to the app after the law goes into effect, your experience with the app may degrade over time and even become insecure. It’s unclear how long the app will work on your device without regular updates.

Viva Tung/CNET

However, before Trump extended the sale deadline in January, TikTok took itself offline in the US for about 14 hours so that no one in the US could access it. So if a sale isn’t reached and Trump doesn’t extend the sale’s deadline, it’s possible the app will fully shut itself down.

Can I access TikTok from a web browser?

No. The law applies to app stores and internet providers alike.

How do I keep posts and videos I like?

TikTok lets you download your posts as well as posts from your favorite creators. Here’s how to download posts from your favorite creators.

1. Open TikTok.

2. Tap the Share button on a post (the arrow on the right side of your screen).

3. Tap Save Video.

Here’s how to save your own posts.

1. Open TikTok.

2. Go to your profile.

3. Tap a post.

4. Tap the three dots (…) on the right side of your screen.

5. Tap Save Video.

The app will save those posts to your photo library.

Getty Images/Viva Tung/CNET

Can I use a VPN to access TikTok?

Yes. You could use a VPN on your phone or browser to access TikTok. “A virtual private network is a privacy tool that hides your IP address by sending your internet traffic through a remote server,” CNET’s Moe Long writes. “If I’m in New York, but tunneling through a London server with ExpressVPN, Disney Plus thinks I’m across the pond.”

A VPN could make it look to TikTok like you’re accessing it from the UK, or another country where it’s not banned, when you’re really in the US. You could also potentially use a proxy server to access TikTok. A proxy server, like a VPN, masks your IP address by sending your traffic through another server first. The main difference between the two is that a proxy server doesn’t offer as comprehensive privacy protections as a VPN does.

What comes next for TikTok?

Trump said he plans on continuing to work with China on a TikTok sale.

“We probably have to get China approval. I think we’ll get it,” Trump said, speaking to the press aboard Air Force One on Tuesday. “I think President Xi will ultimately approve it.”

He credited the tariffs he enacted on April 3, calling them “the most powerful economic tool” and “very important” to national security.

For more on the case, here’s what to know about the Supreme Court’s TikTok decision.

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New Hyundai and Kia vehicles are seen at the Port of Seattle on the US west coast. The Trump administration has reportedly been pressuring some nations to curb trade with China in negotiations over US tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter. (Photo: Bloomberg)

Halfway through US President Donald Trump’s 90-day freeze on his so-called reciprocal tariffs, a persistent gripe from businesses, consumers and governments facing them is severe uncertainty. The next 45 days may not provide much relief from the fog.

Trump himself has indicated that talks won’t lead to agreements for every nation before the July deadline, saying that 150 countries “want to make a deal” but that many will be assigned their tariff level.

“If they’re not negotiating in good faith, they are going to get a letter saying ‘here is the rate’,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Kelly Ann Shaw, a partner at the law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld and a former senior Trump trade adviser, said she expects a flurry of deals will come together near the end of the tariff suspension period on July 9.

“Ninety days is an incredibly ambitious period of time,” she said. “My sense is these are real negotiations for the approximately 18 key trading partners and that, after July 9, countries left on the cutting room floor will be handed a document with commitments that they can either take or leave in exchange for a new tariff rate.”

At stake in all the negotiations are more than just trophies on Trump’s trade policy mantel. Central bankers including the Federal Reserve see tariffs — and the potential for higher ones — as restraints on growth, disruptive for financial markets and contributors to inflation as they set interest rates.

The longer it takes to strike deals that lower tariffs, the longer the Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged.

Here’s a rundown of the tariffs facing some of the biggest US trading partners and the efforts made so far to avoid them:

United Kingdom: 10%

Trump hailed the May 8 announcement of a pact with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as a “full and comprehensive” agreement despite the fact that it covers a limited number of sectors and leaves the US’s 10% baseline tariff on goods intact. It included carve-outs for Britain’s auto and steel industries, which face 25% US sectoral tariffs that sparked warnings of job losses. Still unclear are when tariff reductions would come into force and key details such as the size of a quota for UK steel exports and the nature of US security requirements regarding ownership of British steel plants.

China: 34%

Facing growing pressure from wobbly financial markets and American importers worried about shortages and higher costs, Trump announced May 12 that for a 90-day period, the US would reduce its cumulative 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and leave a 30% levy in place, while China lowered its tax on American imports by the same amount to 10%. The pause until mid-August will give Washington and Beijing time to hold a series of talks using what Bessent calls a “mechanism” to negotiate. Bessent said the “phase one deal” that Trump signed with China in January 2020 served as a template for current aspirations, though “the world has changed, products have changed, product mix has changed — so I think everything is on the table”.

European Union: 20%

Bessent on May 13 said the EU suffered from a “collective action problem” that’s hampering trade negotiations. A week later, the EU sent a revised proposal for talks to the US. There was a call scheduled for Friday, but expectations for much progress between Washington and Brussels were low, Bloomberg News reported. The European Commission’s latest proposals came in response to a paper the Trump administration shared with the bloc’s executive arm following an earlier EU proposal. One EU official described the US paper as a wish list of unrealistic demands.

India: 26%

Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal wrapped up a four-day visit to Washington this week, saying on Friday that he had a “constructive meeting” with his counterpart Howard Lutnick. Officials in India aim for the deal to come together in three phases, with an initial pact signed before July, Bloomberg News reported. Step one will cover areas including market access for industrial goods, some farm products and addressing non-tariff barriers. The second stage may be broader and more detailed, and timed for around September to November. The final leg of the deal will likely be a comprehensive agreement that would follow once there’s approval from the US Congress, possibly next year. The US and India are motivated to boost bilateral commerce as their rivalries with China intensify.

Japan: 24%

Japanese trade officials are visiting Washington this week to continue talks. Top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who leads Japan’s tariff task force, said earlier this month that he hopes to reach an accord with the US in June. On top of the reciprocal tariff, key issues for Japan are Trump’s 25% sectoral tariff on auto imports and Nippon Steel’s $14.1 billion bid for United States Steel. But policymakers in Tokyo are indicating a preference to take time rather than make major concessions to wrap up things up quickly. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, after a call with Trump, said Friday that “we have consistently requested the removal of tariff measures”.

South Korea: 25%

South Korean officials were also in Washington through Friday for a second round of “technical discussions.” Bloomberg News reported it was a working-level delegation holding follow-up talks. The meetings, led by Chang Sung-gil, director-general for trade policy, were designed to follow up on ministerial talks held last week in South Korea, where they agreed to focus on six areas: balanced trade, non-tariff measures, economic security, digital trade, country of origin of product and commercial considerations.

Vietnam: 46%

Vietnam said this week that it made progress in the second round of trade talks with the US. After three days of negotiations the two sides identified “groups of issues on which consensus or views were close, and groups of issues that needed further discussion”, according to a statement on the trade ministry’s website. Talks will continue in June, while technical teams will be assigned to “continue to strengthen exchanges to soon reach an agreement in accordance with the expectations and conditions of each side”, the statement said.

Thailand: 36%

Thailand expressed its readiness to hold talks with the US in Washington “soon”, Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said after meeting with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in mid-May. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra ordered officials to tighten the criteria for issuance of certificates of origin as the country prepares for talks. Thailand expects to reduce its trade gap (currently $45 billion) with the US by as much as $15 billion annually with its recent initiatives to prevent the misuse of origin rules for exports, according to Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira.

Canada

Canada has so far avoided Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, though it’s been targeted by other US trade measures. The main one is the fentanyl executive order that put a 25% tariff on most Canadian-made imports on March 4. But shortly after imposing it, Trump exempted goods covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Then came Trump’s additional tariffs on foreign autos, steel and aluminium, which threaten to disrupt Canada’s highly integrated market with the US. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ultimate goal is a comprehensive trade deal, most likely an updated version of the USMCA. There’s currently no timetable for formal talks.

Mexico

As the other party to USMCA, Mexico also saw tariffs lifted on goods traded under the agreement, which Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard estimates exempts 86% of goods traded with the US. The important auto sector, however, faces a roughly 15% duty on the non-US portion of finished vehicles. Mexico is seeking preferential treatment while it collaborates with the US on security concerns, and President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday she discussed the US steel and aluminium tariffs during her latest call with Trump.

It’s been a whirlwind for forecasters, reminding me of the pandemic days when we were reviewing forecasts every couple of weeks to catch up to policy announcements without a historical reference for what was going to come next. But we’ve learned a lot in the first 100 days: The first is that tariffs will remain the economic weapon of choice on a scale greater than anything in recent history. The second lesson is that regardless of whether the Administration back-peddles on initial tariff threats, the goal remains the same: Create more production independence, particularly within strategic sectors like technology, chemicals, resources and industrial materials. And, I believe, there’s an end goal to have a permanently higher tariff regime at around 10% based on the initial results with the UK and China. That base tariff rate is used as our forecast benchmark. Why does 10% look reasonable? It’s low enough to be partially absorbed within the supply chain to limit the pass-through to consumer prices. And It’s a revenue raiser for the government. The U.S. is the only OECD country without a national sales tax, which would be wildly unpopular . But under the guise of fairness to American workers, this tactic works by impacting only 14% of the economy (i.e. the share of imports), and consumers don’t generally pay the full amount. In contrast, a sales tax is highly observable by consumers by being reflected on every shopping receipt of daily transactions. If imports held constant, it would generate up to $3 trillion in government revenues over the next decade to fund spending and tax cut initiatives. But that still means forecasts have been broadly downgraded in the near term on the combination of DOGE cuts, tariff hikes, and a higher and more uncertain operating cost environment for many businesses.

The Result of the First 100 Days

Let’s start with the forecasts, where consensus does not yet reflect the 90-day tariff-truce between China and the U.S., but our figure does.

Following the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs, a universal 40-60 basis point downgrade hit economic growth. The tariff-pause with China was certainly a positive development that will improve estimates, particularly among those with technical recessions. But the theme of downgrades relative to last quarter will hold.

Looking objectively at the situation:

Tariffs at 30% on China are higher than pre-Trump days, including a 54% de-minimius rate that was zero. Listening to a retailer on the news who imports educational toys from China, he expressed it succinctly by saying: the only reason to get excited about a 30% price hike is when it used to be 145%. Last year it was zero. A 25% tariff remains on steel, aluminum and autos. There’s a laundry list of section 232 investigations underway on semiconductors, copper, lumber, pharmaceuticals, trucks and processed critical minerals. President Trump has even indicated that movies can make the list, underpinning an administration that is still highly prone to unpredictability and a high appetite to press the boundaries.

So there’s optimism that the administration is inching towards their goal posts, but the business environment embeds a lot of uncertainty and additional costs. And although the market is behaving as if there’s a deal with China, there’s not. There’s only an agreement to work on a deal, and many things can go wrong with two tough negotiators.

Tariffs Hit Staggering Level Relative to History

Here’s the picture that speaks to the higher cost environment and forecast downgrades.

Many analysts refer to the Smoot-Hawley period in the early 1930s as the prior peak in the level of tariffs. But the rate of change matters more than the level.

In just a couple weeks there was a 22-percentage point jump in import tariffs, far more than the entire decade in the 1920s and early 1930s. This figure is calculated after the 90-day reciprocal pause, which still had tariffs on China at 145%, as well as 25% on global steel, aluminum and auto tariffs.

The deal with the UK didn’t change the math, it represents only 3% of US trade. But the temporary reprieve with China at 30% did make a difference.

Even so, the U.S. effective tariff rate has still risen by 12 percentage points, marking a price shock for importing businesses in a very short period. And the level at 15% globally, is not much lower than the peak period during 1933.

The Clock Is Ticking Down: Disruptions Caused By Policies

The de-escalation with China is telling us that the Trump administration is paying attention to headlines and market sentiment.

The economic impacts were quickly broadening, spanning shipment disruptions to consumer choices. And if there was ever any doubt on whether President Trump cares about market moves, that was cleared up when he advised the world to: “Better go out and buy stocks”!

Tick…Tock…U.S. Businesses And Consumers Show Angst

The left graph must be making the administration nervous and speaks to the importance of turning around overall sentiment before it manifests in the hard data.

It hasn’t yet because it’s too early. The hard data is just starting to capture April outcomes, where survey periods may only extend to mid-month. Any large-scale shift in firm behaviors will be transmitted in the following months.

But so far, the data is solid, particularly where it matters most – the job market. It pumped out a 3-month pace of 155K jobs, which is more than sufficient to hold the unemployment rate steady. This is also why the Federal Reserve has noted the importance of watching sentiment, but not reacting with a policy response until there’s a direct correlation to the hard data.

The right graph will be trickier for them to interpret. It shows a jump in inflation expectations one year ahead that’s greater than during the pandemic. The same picture exists for expectations that are 5 years ahead. The Fed would pay more attention to this metric, but again, prefers the wait-and-see approach by monitoring the hard data.

Tick…Tock…Tariffs Immediately Altered Shipments

Here is one piece of hard data that could define an acute risk to future inflation.

Daily data of container shipments from China leaving for the US show a collapse in the days following the tit-for-tat tariff escalation in early April. Anything that wasn’t already on a ship and at sea following April 9th would have been tariffed at 145%. No surprise, this immediately locked up supply.

Shortly after, Walmart and Target CEOs sent out warnings of supply chain upheaval and empty store shelves. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book cited firms already receiving notices from suppliers that costs would be increasing. That survey captured business responses within 10 days of the Liberation Day tariff announcement.

This signals that time is of the essence to get ahead of the inflation data because households have long memories when it comes to their cost of living.

Isolate China? A Hard Nut To Crack for Trump Administration

Despite the 90-day reprieve on China, we must be careful in getting too excited. A quick deal will be tough.

China has deep economic ties. The graph on the left shows each country’s exports to China and the U.S. as a share of their GDP. Outside of North America, several countries have near equal or higher reliance on China than they do on the US. Some regions, like Brazil, even stand to gain from the trade war escalation, because China has shifted purchases to them for soybeans and other agricultural products.

These relationships will complicate negotiations and the U.S. attempt to ring-fence China, whether it’s for steel and aluminum, AI chips or other strategic targets. We’re already seeing this play out. For the UK to not pay U.S. steel and aluminum duties, it agreed to ensure supply chain security via the ownership of relevant production facilities. This was legal-speak targeted at isolating China from the supply chain. China has already warned the UK that agreeing to this condition could be met with retaliation. This offers a good example of how countries will be caught trying to serve two masters for their export market.

As for how much pain China can take from a trade war…a lot.

The graph on the right shows that they have similar reliance on exports to U.S., as the U.S. has with Canada and Mexico. By logical extension, if the U.S. feels it has leverage over Canada and Mexico because its economy inherits less pain from tariffs, China can argue the same when it comes to the U.S.

CNN —

If you thought President Donald Trump’s trade war was over, he has some news for you: Tariffs are going up again.

At the conclusion of his Middle East trip Friday, Trump acknowledged that trade negotiations are progressing too slowly to accommodate every country that wants to strike a new trade deal with the United States. So Trump said he’d give other countries a few more weeks, and then Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would simply tell America’s trading partners what their new tariffs are.

“We have, at the same time, 150 countries that want to make a deal, but you’re not able to see that many countries,” Trump said during a business roundtable in Abu Dhabi Friday. “So at a certain point, over the next two to three weeks, I think Scott and Howard will be sending letters out, essentially telling people – we’ll be very fair – but we’ll be telling people what they’ll be paying to do business in the United States.”

Trump on April 9 paused his massive so-called reciprocal tariffs, which he announced on what he called “Liberation Day” on April 2. The reprieve was supposed to be for 90 days, to allow countries to negotiate with the administration. Trump officials have said around 100 countries have offered to negotiate deals, setting a tremendously difficult task before US trade negotiators to race against the clock to make new commitments.

Without those negotiated deals, Trump could impose reciprocal tariffs – some of which are as high as 50%. The tariffs aren’t technically reciprocal, and many smaller countries with large trade gaps with the United States would end up with significant tariff burdens.

“I guess you could say they could appeal it, but for the most part I think we’re going to be very fair, but it’s not possible to meet the number of people that want to see us,” Trump said.

Trump has floated a similar idea before, albeit on a timeframe that has since elapsed.

On April 23, in the Oval Office, Trump said his administration would “set the tariff” for countries that fail to negotiate new terms in the following few weeks.

“In the end, I think what’s going to happen is we’re going to have great deals, and by the way, if we don’t have a deal with a company or a country, we’re going to set the tariff,” Trump said last month. “I’d say over the next couple of weeks, wouldn’t you say? I think so. Over the next two, three weeks. We’ll be setting the number.”

So far, the Trump administration has managed to announce two new frameworks for trade negotiations that resulted in lower tariffs or lower trade barriers with other countries. The first was with the United Kingdom, announced earlier this month, and the second was with China, which Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer negotiated in Geneva last weekend.

Trump’s negotiators have said they are in active discussions with a dozen or so countries, and Trump has said he is close to announcing several more agreements. The administration has previously said India and Japan are getting close to a framework of a deal, as is South Korea, although a new government is coming in there, which will delay negotiations.

The new tariffs

It’s not clear what new tariffs Trump will set on countries that are unable to strike a deal with the United States in the coming weeks – and whether those new tariffs will permanently supersede the paused reciprocal tariffs or merely serve as an interim tariff while negotiations continue. In the meantime, the United States maintains a 10% universal tariff on virtually every good imported to America, plus higher rates for certain products.

Although Lutnick and some other administration officials have described the 10% tariff as a “baseline,” Trump earlier this month rejected that notion, suggesting that US importers would pay a tariff of more than 10% to bring in goods from most countries.

After announcing the framework for trade negotiations with the UK, Trump said other countries wouldn’t get such a good deal. Unlike the UK, whose tariff was set at 10%, other countries will pay a higher rate, Trump said.

That means tariffs will go higher than where they are today: according to Fitch Ratings, even with the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause, set to expire July 8, the United States maintains a 13% average tariff rate on imported goods. Although that’s lower than the 23% in effect last week, before the Trump administration agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, it’s way higher than the 2.3% average tariff rate from before Trump took office for the second time.

They could go much higher: Trump last month said he’d declare “total victory” if import taxes were as high as 50% a year from now.

Trump’s back-and-forth stance on tariffs has caused incredible uncertainty for businesses and consumers, and mainstream economists say the chances of a US recession – though falling as Trump has backed off many of his most aggressive trade policies – are roughly a coin flip. It has also rattled markets, sending stocks tumbling before they rebounded over the past several weeks as Trump has expressed openness to negotiations on trade.

Where are the deals?

Trump has previously said his administration is rapidly constructing scores of deals that could make trade with other nations fairer and bring manufacturing back to the United States.

“You have to understand, I’m dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We’re meeting with China. We’re doing fine with everybody. But ultimately, I’ve made all the deals,” Trump said in a Time interview last month. “I’ve made 200 deals.”

Trump said in the interview, conducted in late April, that he would announce those deals “over the next three to four weeks.” That same week, Trump said he’d announce those deals in two to three weeks’ time.

Despite Trump and his administration’s rhetoric, actual trade deals take a lot of time – often years – to hash out. They typically involve incredibly complex agreements, delving into the minutiae of various goods and nontariff barriers. They often involve significant political considerations, as various parties seek to protect voters with special interests.

So Trump’s concession Friday that hundreds or even dozens of deals aren’t possible on such a short timeframe shows the limitations of threatening tariffs in order to achieve rapid concessions from trading partners with their own vested interests. In the meantime, Americans will be paying more for goods that aren’t made in the United States.