President Donald Trump’s tariff regime is less than three months old, yet it has changed wildly from month to month and sometimes even day to day and hour to hour. He’s applied across-the-board duties on the whole world and strict ones on China only to pull back. Traders on Wall Street are starting to notice a pattern.

Trump’s taken investors for a ride in the meantime as they wrestle with where the administration takes tariffs next. But some market players think they’ve detected a new type of international trade developing under the president. They have a word for the method — TACO, which is short for Trump Always Chickens Out.

The president was asked about that on Wednesday at the White House.

“I chicken out? Oh, I’ve never heard that. You mean because I reduced China from 145% that I set down to 100 and then to another number?” , referring to tariff rates he imposed on Chinese goods. Trump dropped it later to where it is now — 30%.

Other pauses and reversals happened recently as well.

Stocks turned lower after Trump threatened to apply 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union last week. The president doubled down on the claim later that same day, arguing the deadline for the duty was June 1st and that there was not much that could be done.

Just two days later, Trump reversed course and told reporters he’d wait until July 9 to impose the levies following promising talks. He said European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen convinced him to put off the tariffs for another day. Stocks closed well in the green the day after Memorial Day.

Trump pushed back against the TACO label claim.

“You call that chickening out?” Trump said, referring to his multiple ease ups. “It’s called negotiation,” Trump added, claiming he’s using a tactic where he sets “a ridiculous high number” before landing on something more agreeable to the countries he’s tariffing.

The president’s willingness to oscillate between the two extremes doesn’t have anything to do with setting proper tariffs, nor is it about gaining a better negotiating position, according to former Rep. Adam Kinzinger. He believes there’s something more nefarious at play.

“At this point, Trump’s tariff threats are just stock market manipulation,” Kinzinger earlier this month. “Nobody will prosecute him. Just fyi: break the law today, you better hope statute of limitations runs out, you will be held accountable eventually.”

Kinzinger is a longtime critic of the president, and he sat on the House select committee that investigated the January 6, 2021, Capitol Hill riot. The former Republican congressman is probe into his work in that investigation.

Democratic lawmakers hinted at a wider probe into suggestions of market manipulation last month after Trump told his followers on Truth Social, “this is a great time to buy” hours before announcing his 90-day pause on most of his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

“These constant gyrations in policy provide dangerous opportunities for insider trading,” Sen. Adam Schiff, D-CA, after the president suspended the duties. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn, said something similar, saying there is a “scandal brewing.”

These gyrations, as Schiff calls them, are likely to have profound impacts on the overall economy.

Economists are expecting a tick up in prices as goods become hard to come by at ports, and the Federal Reserve is weighing the possibility of stagflation, which could put the bank’s dual mandate of low unemployment and stable prices at risk. Those concerns were discussed during the Fed’s most recent meeting.

Some analysts are equating Trump’s behavior to the COVID pandemic, which disrupted supply chains and triggered one of the worst inflation spikes in decades.

“The president is acting about as unreliably as a virus,” Justin Wolfers, professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, told The National News Desk. As a result, the countries at the brunt end of Trump’s tariffs are starting to “realize they don’t want to be at the whims of the United States.”

Instead of haphazardly imposing and then rescinding his duties, Wolfers argues a better approach is to bring Congress into the mix. Congressional action would help cement the president’s trade policies well into the future after he’s no longer in office, he argued.

Going that route gives American companies the benefit of knowing where they stand in the U.S. economy long-term, according to Wolfers. A far more important question than whether there is a recession this year or next is what happens in the next eight years, he added.

“People have been too busy talking about short-term questions,” he said. “The far more important question is what are the right policies in the long run.”

The severity of the sweeping tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on his so-called Liberation Day sent shockwaves through global equity markets. Although there is some relief that the risks of a global trade war have receded when Trump subsequently paused the most punitive reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Despite a market rally, investors are still very nervous especially given the trade dispute with China is only intensifying. For as long as the US continues to flex its considerable economic muscle the risks to global trade have never been higher.

Whilst the EU has been granted a pause from their 20% reciprocal tariff, the negotiations will undoubtedly be difficult, a reflection of the US President’s long-held view of the blocs “unfair trading practices”. In contrast the UK faces only the Universal 10% levy. More importantly, the UK finds itself in a uniquely advantageous position as Britain seems to be “at the front of the queue” for a potential UK-US trade deal, if the government can resist the temptation to retaliate to this tariff threat. If a trade deal can be finalised imminently, the UK could emerge not only as a relative haven but as a bridge between the US and the EU, the two largest economies in the world.

Just as London is a global leader in international finance, the UK could become pivotal in global trade and gain the opportunity to redefine Britain’s role in the world.

Refuge in UK domestic equities

The immediate market reaction to the tariff threat has been understandable and immediate. Global equities, especially those exposed to international trade and particularly China have faced aggressive selloffs as capital rotates to more domestically focused sectors. Housebuilders, food retailers and utilities, perhaps considered as dull because of their UK centric businesses, now provide some insulation from geopolitical volatility. The UK has long been criticised for its lack of dynamic global technology companies but that could now be its advantage in the short term as the world reassesses valuation risk. The relative dullness of UK domestic equities is now their main attraction. An ongoing trade conflict that puts increasing pressure on globalisation could ironically be a potential turning point for how UK equities are perceived by foreign investors.

A measured response is strengthening Britain’s strategic position

The EU’s swift retaliation to the initial tariffs imposed by the US with E26bn of trade countermeasures is likely to make the negotiations over the EU’s reciprocal 20% tariffs more challenging. The UK’s more measured response could prove to be its greatest asset. While the 10% levy still presents headwinds it is noticeably less severe than the EU’s potential 20% tariff and the risk of further escalation of trade tariffs if future EU US negotiations are unsuccessful. Markets will take notice and this restraint can only improve the prospects of favourable negotiation with the American President. Ministers are already leveraging this position with Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds continuing talks with his US counterparts and expressing confidence that the 10% tariff can be reduced. This new world of tariffs and a retreat from globalisation will mean markets will reward national resilience over global growth, and a careful, measured response may prove to be a real advantage for the UK as it presses for a full trade agreement with the US.

A long-term opportunity

The tariff threat and the associated trade uncertainty is likely to have a ’chilling’ effect on UK economic growth according to Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden which can only add pressure to the UK’s fiscal problems. Recent OBR figures paint a worrying picture, indicating levies could reduce an already tepid growth environment by 1% by 2026/27 and potentially erode what is left of the government’s fiscal headroom. The necessity for some economic impetus for the UK economy is essential if a future fiscal crunch is to be avoided. A UK US trade deal could provide that impetus. A redefined Britain as a focus for free trade between Europe and the US and a safe and secure sanctuary in a global trade maelstrom is a tantalising prospect for foreign investment and equity allocations.

If Britain can stay above the turmoil in this global trade war and instead focus on being at the forefront of Global free trade, then this measured response could prove to be the nation’s greatest currency and potentially turn the chaos caused by Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda into the lightning rod for our countries own ‘UK exceptionalism’.

Open this photo in gallery: Keith Sherwood, associate vice-president and commercial surety manager with insurance broker NFP, at his workplace in Thornhill, Ont., on April 23.Laura Proctor/The Globe and Mail

Long before U.S. President Donald Trump first uttered threats of tariffs in North America, another trade crisis was already quietly brewing in Canada. It is now just days away from a potential boiling point that experts warn could lead to major import bottlenecks at the border.

The federal government is implementing a new online payment regime for duties and taxes on commercial goods entering Canada. Known as CARM, which stands for Canada Border Service Agency Assessment and Revenue Management, the system requires importers to make new financial commitments by May 20 or risk having their goods held at the border.

But according to government data, only a small fraction of importers have met those requirements so far, leading experts to warn of potential supply disruptions for common household staples. The new regime is also arriving as importers are being forced to navigate Mr. Trump’s complex web of tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, adding another layer of costs, stress and uncertainty on the situation.

“These tariffs probably couldn’t come at a worse time because CARM is just about to go live,” said Keith Sherwood, associate vice-president and commercial surety manager with insurance broker NFP. “Is there going to be a bottleneck? For sure. Is it going to be chaos? Absolutely. I think so. Are we prepared for it? As an industry I think we are ready to go, we knew this was going to happen.”

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Importers have long enjoyed access to a privilege called “release prior to payment” that allows commercial goods to enter Canada without duties and taxes being paid immediately on arrival. RPP, as it is known, allows for the swift flow of trade across the border, but that privilege is now in jeopardy.

In order to qualify for RPP, importers need to post financial security – either in cash or, more often, in the form of a guarantee known as a surety bond – on the CARM system. That security ensures the government gets paid even if the importer lacks the funds, which often occurs in cases of bankruptcy.

The CARM system is responsible for collecting roughly $40-billion per year in import duties and taxes, making it the federal government’s second-largest source of revenue after income taxes.

Before CARM, importers could rely on the financial security put up by their customs broker, as the entire customs brokerage industry is built around the idea of facilitating the import and export process. Post-CARM, however, the burden of financial security is shifting from a group of less than 400 licensed customs brokers to Canada’s nearly 200,000 active importers.

When CARM first came online in Oct., 2024, importers were given a six-month transition period – initially until April 19 – to comply before facing the risk of having their goods prevented from entering Canada until all fees had been paid. Yet by March 19, 2025, just one month before the transition period was set to expire, the CBSA said only 14 per cent of importers had posted financial security to CARM.

Businesses are rushing to reroute shipments to Canada in a move that might lead to cheaper goods, risks for business

Without it, importers could have their RPP privileges revoked, which the CBSA warned “will cause significant delays at the border.”

While the transition period was extended by one month, to May 20, financial security providers say importers are still not signing up for their products in large enough numbers to avoid logistical bottlenecks.

Industry insiders say surety bonds can be provided to importers within a matter of minutes under ideal circumstances. But the concern is that if too many importers wait until the last minute, many could find themselves on the wrong side of the new requirements with their goods stuck at the border while they wait for the backlog to clear.

Importers who wait until the last minute, says Mr. Sherwood, “are going to be mad because they can’t get a bond in eight minutes because there are 100,000 others in line in front of them and they don’t realize that everybody did the same thing that they did, but that is where we are right now,” Mr. Sherwood said.

He adds: “Our doors are open, but unfortunately we are going to need a floodgate. There are going to be some long wait times.”

Steve Ness, president and chief operating officer of the Surety Association of Canada, a trade advocacy group that represents the industry, said the SAC has no sense of how many importers could be planning to make an eleventh-hour dash for compliance.

Part of the reason that figure is unknown is because there is no data available differentiating between importers who bring goods across the border on a daily or weekly basis and those who might only bring in a handful of shipments per year. That means a certain proportion of importers can afford to wait until after the May 20 deadline passes if they are not planning to receive any shipments until weeks or even months later.

“One of our nightmares is that the day before all of this comes due, we are going to have a lineup of 200,000 people outside our doors looking for a bond,” Mr. Ness said.

Open this photo in gallery: Trucks cross the Blue Water Bridge border crossing between Canada and the U.S. as a freighter moves cargo along the St. Clair River near Sarnia, Ont., on April 3.GEOFF ROBINS/AFP/Getty Images

Customs brokers, who had previously paid customs and duties on imports and were able to charge a percentage-based fee to importers for that service, are also in the dark about what could happen to their clients who fail to obtain their own financial security in time.

Technically, goods coming into Canada by an importer without RPP would be held at the border until all duties and taxes have been paid, according to Janine Harker, president of the Canadian Society of Customs Brokers. Whether that will actually happen in real life, she said, was uncertain.

“It is quite a volatile mix of ‘what ifs’ at this point that is causing a lot of stress in the system,” Ms. Harker said. “What you have is a perfect storm for importers trying to get their goods to enter efficiently into Canada.”

When the CBSA extended the CARM transition period by one month to May 20, the reprieve was far less than the year-long delay the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses wanted.

“We had pushed for a year,” said Corinne Pohlmann, executive vice-president of advocacy at the CFIB. “This is going to add complications. You have to get a security bond or put up a cash bond and that adds to the costs of a small business that is struggling to figure out this whole system.”

Rebecca Purdy, a spokesperson for the CBSA, said the government put years of planning, consultation, testing and training into launching the new CARM system, which is aimed at eliminating cumbersome paper-based processes, improving compliance and enforcement and ensuring importers pay what they owe.

Meet the frazzled customs brokers on the front lines of a trade war

Ms. Purdy said importers were given a series of phased-in deadlines since April, 2024, including a 180-day transition period announced last August. As of May 2, more than 157,000 “trade chain partners” had registered in the CARM portal.

Customs brokers will also be able to use their business numbers until October in cases where importers do not yet have a CARM account, she added.

“For those who have not yet registered, it only takes 10 minutes and can be done online or in person at a kiosk at one of our border crossings,” she said in an e-mailed statement.

Despite the looming deadline, not everyone is concerned about the widespread lack of CARM compliance.

Barb Miller, a licensed customs broker and CEO of Otimo Customs Inc., said any logistical bottlenecks are unlikely.

“That is what people claim but that is not realistic. That is not what is going to happen,” Ms. Miller said. “CBSA has been doing a really good job of their outreach. They are pushing notifications like crazy to the importer CARM portal. Every single importer logging into that portal has a big, huge notice.”

Open this photo in gallery: The system requires importers to make new financial commitments by May 20 or risk having their goods held at the border.Supplied

Not every importer needs to hit that May 20 deadline either, said Tracy McLean, senior vice-president of insurance and surety broker American Global Canada.

“It is all subject to when they actually do their importing,” Ms. McLean said. “I think the intent of the CBSA is they are not going to hinder or block business at the border. Everyone in the industry is well aware of what is happening so I think it is more a case of clients taking their time in deciding when they want to onboard. I don’t think it is a question of them not accepting it.”

Complicating matters further is that one of the main consequences of Mr. Trump’s trade war has been a rerouting of global supply chains, leading Canadian importers to find new, non-U.S.-based suppliers. For many importers, that could mean completely redoing the calculations for what they might have to pay in duties and taxes at the border because import duties can vary depending on their country of origin.

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The trend has already led to a 20 per cent year-over-year increase in the Bank of Nova Scotia’s supply chain finance and working capital business as importers look to protect themselves as they build new trade ties. Supply chain finance products function in a similar way to import surety bonds, but instead of guaranteeing payment of duties and taxes, they guarantee payment for the product itself.

They are often used in newly established import-export relationships before the trading partners can establish the trust that comes from working together over long periods of time.

“You are seeing a lot of Canadian companies and Mexican companies starting new relationships, with Canada a lot more on the sourcing side for things like produce,” said Matthew Parker-Jones, Scotiabank’s senior vice-president of global transaction banking. “People are not completely rerouting, but they are diversifying. They are building second paths where historically they might have had one path.”

As the only Canadian bank with operations in Mexico, Mr. Parker-Jones said Scotiabank has a unique position to observe the increasing economic connections forming between America’s northern and southern neighbours. What he has seen from that vantage point is a flurry of new trading relationships being established, particularly among smaller businesses, leading to much wider use of supply chain finance products.

“It has changed the dynamics of what has in the past been a kind of niche, sleepy product into something that is now much more mainstream,” he said.

“Historically it is a product that has been used by the larger, more sophisticated counterparties that has moved from the larger corporate space down market into commercial and smaller businesses.”

Having importers directly take on financial security requirements has also upended the business model of many in the customs broker business. Under the previous regime, customs brokers could pay taxes and duties on commercial goods they brought across the border on behalf of their importer clients, charging those clients a fee ranging from 1 to 3 per cent of that total for the service.

Now, under CARM, they face the loss of that revenue, which for some firms can be substantial.

“Customs brokers have traditionally kind of operated as a bit of a bank in that regard,” said Steve Bozicevic, CEO of A&A Customs Brokers. “It isn’t a huge part of our particular business, but it is for many customs brokers, so it is a very massive hit for them.”

For customs brokers who were more reliant on the revenue that came from what were effectively loans, Mr. Bozicevic said they will now have to increase the rates they charge for other services to compensate and, as a result, many importers are considering changing their customs brokers just as the CARM transition period is set to expire.

“There has been a lot of notes to customers going out there now saying, ‘We have to double or triple your rates,’” Mr. Bozicevic said. “So we get a lot of inbounds from customers looking around for other options.”

Adding yet another layer of confusion to the situation is the fact that tariffs are not necessarily included as part of the calculations used to determine the size of a bond an importer might need. According to the SAC’s Mr. Ness, importers need a bond that is worth 50 per cent of the highest month of shipments they brought into the country over the previous year.

For example, if a Canadian company imported $2-million worth of oranges in February, 2024, but brought in less than that for every other month of the year, that company would still need a $1-million bond for 2025.

Fresh produce was among the products that had duty-free status in Canada, meaning that orange importer actually wouldn’t have needed a bond at all. That changed in March, however, when oranges were included in a list of U.S. products to face Canadian retaliatory tariffs and importers started getting asked to post financial security despite never having had to deal with that requirement before.

“One of our biggest customers does produce, where they have no duty, no GST, but because of those 25-per-cent surtaxes [tariffs] they now need a $1.5-million bond,” Ms. Miller said.

The regulations governing financial security requirements for imports specifically exempt tariffs from being included in surety bond calculations, she said, meaning a produce importer still should not be required to have a bond. The situation has led to widespread confusion.

“When all of these regulations started, they didn’t anticipate getting into a trade war,” Ms. Miller said. “That, to me, is important, because we had better figure that out pretty quick.”

NFP’s Mr. Sherwood said the vast majority of Canadians don’t realize the situation could impact them directly. That will change if common household staples face delays at the border that keep them off of store shelves.

“They’ll know when they start going down the aisles of the supermarket and saying, ‘What do you mean there is no cereal?’ That is when they’ll start asking questions and that is when the general public will start asking what is going on at the border,” Mr. Sherwood said.

American Global Canada’s Ms. McLean said the potential for wide-ranging consequences are all the more reason why the industry has “a responsibility to get that message out there.”

“There shouldn’t be anybody going to the cereal aisle and realizing there is no cereal,” she said. “We all play a role in helping to ensure that cereal is there. And I don’t foresee the cereal not being there because of CARM.”

Ultimately, Ms. Miller said the only way to ensure a potential supply chain crisis is avoided is to ensure Canadian importers are compliant with the new CARM rules before the May 20 deadline.

“Importers are going to have to step up and be a little bit more accountable,” she said. “There is absolutely no reason why any importer should not have financial security by May 20 because there has been huge outreach. Do I think that the ceiling is going to fall? If it does, the only people they will have to blame are themselves.”

(May 5, 2025) This article was updated to add information about the planning, consultation, testing and training offered in the leadup to the May 20 deadline for new CBSA Assessment and Revenue Management (CARM) system requirements.

Bitcoin joins the safe-haven debate as trade tensions rise

For decades, investors fled to gold and US Treasurys during crises, but in today’s digital, decentralized world, Bitcoin is starting to enter the safe-haven conversation. Despite its volatility, Bitcoin BTCUSD has shown signs of resilience during global turbulence, including trade wars, prompting a fresh look at its role in preserving value.

Let’s rewind a bit to understand where this question comes from.

For decades, whenever uncertainty rattled the global economy, be it war, inflation, or sudden political shifts, investors did what they always do — run to the safest hills. Historically, those hills were made of gold or filled with US Treasury bonds. But things are changing.

In a world that’s more digital, decentralized, and volatile than ever, people are asking whether Bitcoin might now be part of the conversation as a modern safe-haven asset, especially during disruptive events like trade wars.

To get into this, you need to explore what makes an asset a safe haven in the first place, how Bitcoin has behaved during recent trade-related turbulence and whether it has earned its spot alongside more traditional defensive plays.

First, the concept of a “safe haven” isn’t about making a profit. It’s about preserving value. In times of crisis, investors want assets that hold up under pressure. Gold has done this for decades. The US dollar, despite being fiat, is often seen as a safe haven due to its global reserve status and the strength of US financial institutions.

Treasury bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. All these assets are supposed to be relatively low in volatility and high in liquidity.

Now, here’s the twist: Bitcoin is not low in volatility. It’s notoriously wild. But despite that, you might have seen moments where it behaves like a safe haven. Not always, but sometimes, and that’s interesting.

Isn’t it?

The 2018-19 trade war vs Bitcoin’s role in times of turmoil

During the 2018–19 US-China trade war, Bitcoin surged as traditional markets faltered, hinting at its potential as a hedge in turbulent times. While its “digital gold” narrative gained traction, Bitcoin’s behavior often mirrors that of speculative tech stocks, keeping its safe-haven status an open question.

Take the 2018–19 US-China trade war, for example. As tariff threats escalated and tensions between the two economic giants intensified, global markets became increasingly jittery. Tech stocks took a hit. Commodities wavered. Amid all this, something strange happened. Bitcoin quietly surged. From April to July 2019, the price of Bitcoin climbed from about $5,000 to over $12,000.

It wasn’t alone. Gold also rallied during that time. However, this was one of the earliest signs that Bitcoin might not be just a risk-on asset but could also serve as a hedge in turbulent times. That period sparked a new narrative: Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

The fixed supply of 21 million coins gave it scarcity. Its decentralized nature meant it wasn’t bound to any single government’s policies. And because it lived on a global, censorship-resistant network, it was insulated from the kind of capital controls that often follow during periods of financial stress. These qualities started to resonate with investors looking for alternatives to traditional safe havens.

To be fair, Bitcoin hasn’t always stuck to the script. While there are moments where it moves inversely to risk assets, more often than not, it behaves like a speculative tech stock, especially over short time frames. Historically, Bitcoin has had a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. So, while the “digital gold” narrative is growing, it still sits side-by-side with the idea of Bitcoin being a high-beta bet for risk-seeking investors.

Did you know? A 2025 study titled Institutional Adoption and Correlation Dynamics: Bitcoin’s Evolving Role in Financial Markets analyzed daily data from 2018 to 2025. The study found that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 intensified following key institutional milestones, with peaks reaching 0.87 in 2024. This suggests that Bitcoin has transitioned from an alternative asset toward a more integrated financial instrument.

Inside the Trump tariff wars of 2025: Markets rattle, Bitcoin rises

In early 2025, Trump’s sweeping tariffs triggered panic across financial markets, with the Nasdaq and S&P suffering historic drops. Within two days, US stock indexes lost trillions, reigniting the debate over Bitcoin’s role as a modern safe haven.

Fast forward to April 2025, and the question of whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe haven got tested again. This time, it was in a much more pronounced way. In February 2025, Trump, now in his second term as president, announced a fresh wave of aggressive tariffs aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing.

This was the kind of headline that immediately spooks financial markets, especially when major trading partners began whispering about retaliation. By April 2, Trump had declared what he called “Liberation Day,” a sweeping set of tariffs covering nearly all imported goods. It was framed as economic patriotism, but to markets, it spelled chaos.

Chaos came quickly. On April 3, the Nasdaq Composite plunged by nearly 6%, losing over 1,000 points in one session. This was a record-setting drop in terms of raw numbers. The S&P 500 didn’t fare much better, falling close to 5%. Investors began to panic about supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures and a possible global slowdown.

Then came April 4, and the panic only deepened. The Nasdaq slid into official bear market territory, and the Dow lost over 2,200 points in a single day. Within 48 hours, America’s major stock indexes had lost trillions in value.

Did you know? Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, noted that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 have been driven by speculative fervor fueled by lenient Fed policies. He highlighted that Bitcoin tends to trade in tandem with highly leveraged tech-focused ETFs, indicating a strong correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks.

Bitcoin didn’t soar amid market crash, but It didn’t sink either

During the April 2025 market crash, Bitcoin held steady while stocks plunged, surprising many with its resilience. It didn’t surge, but its stability amid chaos hinted at its growing role as a value-preserving asset in turbulent times.

So, what did Bitcoin do? Surprisingly, nothing catastrophic, and that was the story. While nearly everything else was tanking during the tariff-fueled sell-off, Bitcoin didn’t crash. That alone turned heads.

In a market where even the most established benchmarks were falling apart, Bitcoin’s relative stability stood out to portfolio managers and institutional watchers.

Long criticized as too volatile for serious portfolios, Bitcoin quietly weathered the storm better than many traditional assets. This wasn’t a moonshot moment. It was a resilience moment. Value preservation over value multiplication. And that’s what investors look for in a safe haven. Its ability to hold ground while the Nasdaq and S&P plunged gave more weight to the idea that Bitcoin might be evolving into something sturdier.

To be clear, Bitcoin hasn’t fully decoupled from risk assets. It still responds to liquidity flows, monetary policy and investor sentiment. But at times like April 2025, it showed something different. It didn’t break. It held! And for a growing number of investors, that’s starting to matter.

Bitcoin isn’t the new gold, but it’s not the old BTC either

Bitcoin’s growing resilience stems from a maturing market, rising institutional adoption and its appeal as a non-sovereign, portable hedge in times of financial or geopolitical stress. While not yet the ultimate safe haven, it’s clearly moved beyond its speculative roots and is earning a seat at the table.

Part of this growing strength is structural. Over the past few years, the Bitcoin market has matured. Institutional adoption has risen. Spot Bitcoin ETFs now live in major markets. Custody solutions are better. And perhaps most importantly, there’s a broader understanding of what Bitcoin represents.

Bitcoin is not just a speculative coin anymore. It’s a tool for financial sovereignty, for hedging against fiat depreciation and for stepping outside the boundaries of politicized financial infrastructure.

There’s also the fact that Bitcoin is entirely non-sovereign. In a trade war scenario, where fiat currencies can be weaponized, and capital controls are deployed, Bitcoin becomes very attractive to people who want to move money across borders without interference. It’s portable, permissionless and increasingly liquid. These are three attributes of an asset you want in a crisis.

Of course, none of this means Bitcoin is now the undisputed king of safe havens. Gold still plays that role for most of the world’s conservative investors. The US dollar is still the default when people want liquidity in a crunch. And Bitcoin’s price swings can still make people nervous. But you are seeing it graduate amid the market chaos. It’s no longer the outsider it once was.

Bitcoin in times of crisis, safe haven 2.0?

In both 2019 and 2025, Bitcoin showed flashes of safe-haven behavior, proving it can act as a hedge in times of geopolitical stress. While it’s not gold just yet, its unique properties make it an increasingly serious contender in the global financial playbook.

During both the 2019 trade tensions and the 2025 tariff escalation, Bitcoin acted more like a hedge than it did in earlier cycles. And that’s noteworthy. Even if Bitcoin doesn’t yet consistently play the safe-haven role, it’s starting to show it can, at least in specific contexts.

There’s a bigger question brewing here, too. What does it mean for financial markets if Bitcoin does become a mainstream safe-haven asset? How does that change portfolio construction, risk models or even geopolitical strategy? After all, Bitcoin isn’t gold. It plays by entirely different rules.

Bitcoin is programmable. It can be moved across the world instantly. It can be sliced into satoshis and embedded into smart contracts. If it becomes part of the global toolkit for navigating crises, that changes the game.

So, is Bitcoin the new safe haven during trade wars? Not quite, at least not in the traditional sense. But it has undoubtedly earned a seat at the table.

Bitcoin may not be the asset your grandparents bought to protect themselves in uncertain times, but for a growing number of investors, especially in the digital age, it’s becoming their version of safety. As geopolitical tensions rise and confidence in traditional financial systems erodes, Bitcoin is positioning itself as a potential hedge for the future.

It was a chaotic week for markets as Trump’s tariff whipsaw sent US equities on a volatile ride and investors fled traditional safe-haven assets, escalating concerns over the stability of the US economy.

Risk-off investments aggressively sold off, with long-term Treasurys logging their biggest upside swing since 1982 while the US dollar sharply weakened against foreign currencies.

It’s an unusual development as concerns over stagflation, where growth stalls, inflation persists, and unemployment rises, have kept Wall Street on edge that shifting trade dynamics could induce a self-inflicted recession. In that scenario, investors would typically flock to safe havens like bonds or US currencies in order to hedge themselves against volatility.

Quite dramatically, that hasn’t been the case — and it could signal an unsettling fundamental shift across global financial markets.

“I do think it’s severe,” Marc Chandler, global foreign exchange chief market strategist at Bannockburn, told Yahoo Finance when asked about the sell-off in the US dollar and bond market. “People are concerned that maybe we’re seeing a capital strike against the US, where large pools of capital are selling US assets and taking their money home.”

For rolling updates on tariffs, check out our liveblog >

Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha described recent trading action as a “rare, ugly, and worrying combination of market moves” that reflects “evaporating US growth exceptionalism.”

Kathy Jones, chief rates strategist at Charles Schwab, added in a post on X that the double drop in Treasurys and the dollar “suggests foreign and domestic investors are concerned about US economic outlook.”

In other words, a possible “sell America” trade could be brewing.

“All of these [moves] really point to a coordinated move away from US assets,” Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, told Yahoo Finance on Friday. “That is a trend that is likely to persist here in the short to medium term.”

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 10, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard · REUTERS / Reuters

Trump’s trade war has largely been blamed for the chaos.

“Whipsaw is definitely the right word for this,” Michael Darda, chief economist and macro strategist at Roth Capital Partners, told Yahoo Finance’s Market Domination in an interview on Thursday. “Financial markets are being whipsawed, and that’s due to public policy being chaotic.”

To recap: Trump pivoted Wednesday on enacting reciprocal tariffs on non-retaliatory countries. Markets initially praised the development before sharply reversing course as Trump doubled down on his trade war with China.