Katya Adler: Far right looks for breakthrough in Germany’s election

21 February 2025 Share Save Katya Adler Europe editor Reporting from Berlin Share Save

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A political tidal wave is crashing across Germany. That’s what the hard-right nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party firmly believes. It is labelled “radical”, “racist” and “anti-democratic” by opponents. Germany’s domestic intelligence service says the party is “anti-constitutional”. But if polls are right, the AfD will become Germany’s second largest political force after elections this Sunday. That would be a huge shift in tectonic plates, not just at home but across Europe. Why is the AfD such a big deal, you might ask? Parties on the populist right have grown in support across much of Europe. The AfD points to Donald Trump as well. They share his “anti-woke”, tough-on-migration, pro-fossil-fuel message. They too are keen to stop sending weapons to Ukraine, and to de-escalate tensions with Russia. The Trump administration supports them right back – publicly, to the outrage of many Germans. The thing is, Germany isn’t just any other country. It is Europe’s largest economy, one of its most influential nations. It still carries the weight of its Nazi past. Alongside the UK and France, it’s one of the Big Three that helped shape and secure Europe’s liberal order and defence structures following both World War Two and the Cold War. Final push for votes as German frontrunner vows to lead in Europe

Getty Images AfD co-leader Alice Weidel is unlikely to enter a coalition government, even if her party does as well as expected

Never before in post-war Germany has a hard-right party been so successful, while on the cusp of being identified as a threat to the Federal Republic and its liberal constitution. France’s influential opposition leader, Marine Le Pen, whose party is also considered far-right, has distanced herself from the AfD on the European stage, apparently judging its positions and ethno-nationalist reputation too radical. The long-held assumption among the mainstream at home and abroad had been that Germany’s dark past immunised it against any serious flirtations with the extreme right. But there’s a lot about this election that’s making observers shift their view of Germany. And I will come back to the AfD, which vigorously denies its “extremist” label.

Broken Germany

Germans have suffered a kick in the gut – in terms of self-image and their country’s international reputation. For years, they got used to being admired – and envied – as the economic powerhouse of Europe. Vorsprung durch technik, roughly translating as “progress through technology”, was an advertising slogan for Audi cars in the 1980s. For decades it encapsulated Germany’s reputation in the international imagination. The country was seen as modern, dynamic and technologically advanced. And the automobile industry was one of the main arteries pumping wealth into Germany’s economic heart. But fundamental flaws have now been exposed in the German economic model.

Reuters One half of the Carola bridge in Dresden collapsed in September 2024

It is widely viewed as kaputt (broken) – relying too heavily on energy-intensive, old-fashioned industries like combustion-engine cars and the chemical industry. Critics question Germany’s lack of foresight, or ability to move with the times. Where was the serious investment in R&D? In big tech? In AI? To make matters worse, during Angela Merkel’s 16 years as chancellor – she stepped down in 2021 – Germany became increasingly dependent on: exports to China

cheap gas from Russia

a US defence umbrella. All of this left Germany very exposed. Donald Trump now says Europe can no longer rely on US security support and guarantees. China has made rapid advances in the automobile industry and dominates electric car technology. So far less need for German imports. And Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine left Germany scrambling for alternative energy sources. Buying liquid natural gas, from the US and others, is expensive, leading to financial strain on many energy-intensive German businesses. The result: Germany’s economy is sluggish and sticky. As the biggest member of the eurozone currency, that has an impact way beyond its borders. European allies are frustrated.

Military weakness

Germany’s military is also a source of irritation (that’s putting it politely) among European neighbours. Berlin is a key power in the defence alliance, Nato. Donald Trump’s return to the White House means Europeans need to provide more of their own capabilities. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged a zeitenwende – a turning point – for his country’s depleted military, after Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. Yet Germany’s military remains in a debilitated state – less battle-ready, we are told, than three years ago. Partly due to its donations to Ukraine.

Reuters Germany has provided weapons that have been critical for Ukraine’s air defence

Germany, after the US, has been the biggest donor of military aid to Ukraine and most political parties in Germany are in favour of continuing to support Kyiv. The AfD takes a very different stance. “Peace” is one of the most frequent signs you see at their rallies. They want a rapprochement with Russia, to immediately stop sending weapons to Ukraine, and to use resources instead to build up Germany’s armed forces for protection at home.

Crumbling infrastructure

More than 4,000 bridges in Germany are broken or in a dubious state. I could hardly believe my ears when I first heard that. But it is the reported figure in a country whose infrastructure has been quietly crumbling for years due to chronic under-investment – both public and private. Train punctuality in Germany is appalling – worse than in the UK, which will astound weary British commuters. Digitisation is lamentable too. Mobile phone reception is patchy outside cities and people are still known to use faxes! But even if recent German governments had wanted to invest more, they faced legal limits on spending. A debt brake was written into the German constitution following the financial crisis of 2008/9, with a constraint on new debt of no more than 0.35% of GDP, except in times of national emergency. Germans didn’t trust their politicians any more. They had seen government spending spiral at home and abroad. The euro currency, which Germany depends on, almost collapsed. But what seemed to voters an anchor of financial stability then, now appears to many, a block to economic growth. Rows about reforming the debt brake were the final straw leading to the collapse of Germany’s outgoing coalition, and the snap election this Sunday. But, new German government beware: breaking the debt brake will be no mean feat. You need a two-thirds majority in parliament to change the German constitution.

Migration

Migration is a huge issue in Germany. And a big vote winner for the AfD. It is far from the only country worrying about migration levels in Europe, but Germany alone took in over a million asylum seekers, mainly from Syria and Afghanistan, during Europe’s migrant crisis in 2015/16. The country has also opened its doors to 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees. Many Germans were proud of what they called their “welcome culture”. But a spate of attacks by asylum seekers from the Middle East and Afghanistan has re-ignited a debate about how open Germany’s borders should be. There have been stabbings, a machete assault, a car ramming into civilians at a Christmas market and again at a recent trade union demonstration in Munich, where yet another small child was killed.

Most Germans are anti-AfD – this placard at a protest in Heidenheim says, ‘No fascists in the government! Never again’

The AfD insists it is not racist or anti-migration, and that anyone is welcome in Germany if they arrive by legal means, get a job, contribute to society and respect local norms and culture. The party says it would immediately deport all immigrants who commit a crime, and anyone who arrives here illegally. That stance was applauded by numerous AfD supporters I spoke to at rallies in the lead-up to Sunday’s election – including young women who told me they no longer felt safe on the streets.

Young AfD supporters told the BBC they were concerned for their safety on the streets

It’s also worth noting that in May, a German court found that “at least a significant part of the AfD” believed that anyone with a migrant heritage was not “properly German” – even if they held German citizenship. It concluded that the AfD aimed to “grant German citizens with a migration background only a legally devalued status”. This goes against the German constitution.

Germany’s next government

Worried they could lose voters to the AfD over the question of migration and borders, Germany’s centre left and centre right have moved to the right in their rhetoric. This is a victory for the AfD, whatever the outcome of the election. Even if it becomes the second largest force in parliament, as predicted, it is very, very unlikely to make it into Germany’s next government.

Articles President Trump’s Leadership, Vision Drives NATO Breakthrough

In a defining moment for global security, President Donald J. Trump achieved a monumental victory for the United States and its allies, brokering an historic deal to dramatically increase defense contributions across the NATO alliance — and marking a new era of shared responsibility and strength against global threats.

The agreement was met with widespread praise at home and across the world.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: “Would you ever think that this would be the result of this summit if he would not have been re-elected president? … I think he deserves all the praise.”

Finnish President Alexander Stubb: “We’re witnessing the birth of a new NATO … This is a big win, I think, for both President Trump and I think it’s also a big win for Europe.”

Polish President Andrzej Duda: “Without the support and without the leadership of Donald Trump, it would be impossible.”

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal: “It’s a historic moment that we will be ramping up defense expenditure to five percent. I strongly, and Estonia strongly, support it.”

Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen: “I think he’s exactly right when he says that Europe needs to spend more.”

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas: “Allies seem to be united. I think the understanding is everybody needs to do more for defense because we are living in very turbulent times.”

Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski: “We should give credit where credit is due. President Trump was right in his first term when he said that allies were not fulfilling their own commitments from previous summits.”

CNN’s Joseph Ataman and Clare Sebastian: “A diplomatic masterstroke.”

POLITICO.eu: “Big win for Trump”

Associated Press: “After less than 24 hours on the ground in the Netherlands, Trump headed back to Washington having secured a major policy change he’s pushed for since 2017: a significant boost in defense spending by other NATO countries.”

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board: “Trump Wins the Battle of NATO”

Foreign affairs analyst Jasmine El-Gamal: “It’s something that Trump is going to tout as an achievement, and he wouldn’t be wrong in doing so … It was clear that Trump is the mover and shaker and that he sets the tone and agenda.”

Le Monde: “Trump triumphant after NATO leaders agree on defense spending hike”

De Volkskrant (Amsterdam, The Netherlands): “Rebirth of NATO” Der Standard (Vienna, Austria): “At the urging of US President Donald Trump, NATO members are committing to massively increasing defense spending.”

Algemeen Dagblad (Rotterdam, The Netherlands): “US President Donald Trump and NATO chief Mark Rutte can look back on a successful NATO summit … History was made in The Hague.” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Frankfurt, Germany): “NATO commits to a five percent target”

A bipartisan group of lawmakers also hailed the news:

Speaker Mike Johnson: “NATO countries bumping defense funding from less than 2% to 5%! No more free rides for the rest of the world. No more using the American taxpayer as their own personal piggy banks. THIS is the Trump effect.”

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Jim Risch: “@NATO’s commitment to raise defense spending to 5% is a tremendous achievement. Thank you to @realDonaldTrump, @SecGenNATO, and our allies who worked to achieve this outcome. New investments in defense and industrial cooperation will strengthen the core pillar of NATO. Now, we must continue to push forward as an alliance and focus on the task of fulfilling this pledge.”

Sen. Ted Budd: “Thanks to @POTUS, our NATO Allies have agreed to an increased annual defense investment of 5% of GDP — long the target. It’s about time Europe pays its fair share for our collective defense. Investments in military capabilities will enhance deterrence amid rising threats.”

Sen. Bill Cassidy: “A stronger alliance makes for a safer world. President Trump successfully pushed our NATO allies to increase their investment in defense spending from 2% to 5% of GDP. When America is strong, the world is safer.”

Sen. Chris Coons: “This will be remembered as a landmark summit. The agreement to spend 5 percent is a significant step forward toward a shared commitment to our collective security.”

Sen. John Cornyn: “Astonishing news out of the NATO summit: Allies have agreed to devote 5% of their economies to military spending, up from the current 2% floor.”

Sen. Ted Cruz: “NATO’s commitment to step forward and invest more would’ve never happened without President Trump’s leadership. Strong American leadership has returned.”

Sen. Steve Daines: “A strong President and a strong America makes a difference yet again on the world stage: Nearly every NATO nation is pledging to increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP. The world is safer today thanks to @POTUS.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham: “Congratulations to President Trump and his team on a highly successful NATO summit. Virtually all NATO nations pledging to increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP is historic and a game changer, making the alliance stronger and America safer. Thank you to our NATO allies and well done, @POTUS.”

Sen. John Kennedy: “President Trump has awakened our NATO friends from their slumber—and they’re finally taking their defense spending goals more seriously.”

Sen. Dave McCormick: “In 2014, just three of NATO’s member countries met the 2% of GDP defense spending commitment. Thanks to the leadership of @POTUS, that number is now 23. The declaration to raise spending to 5% by 2035 will ensure the future needs of the transatlantic alliance are met and that our allies are paying their fair share.”

Sen. Rick Scott: “Great to see @POTUS’ leadership and great success recognized by @SecGenNATO! Thanks to President Trump, peace through strength is BACK, and our NATO allies are paying their fair share to keep the world safe.”

Sen. Dan Sullivan: “I’ve long said our NATO allies need to pay their fair share and I’m thankful President Trump is finally getting them to pony up.”

Sen. Thom Tillis: “This is great news. For NATO to be successful, it is important for our allies and partners to pay their fair share of dues. Yet another victory secured under @POTUS Trump!”

Sen. Todd Young: “NATO is important to our global security and stability, but the U.S. cannot shoulder the majority of the burden given the threats we face. Today, our allies committed to contributing more to our common defense. Thank you, @POTUS, for leading the way.”

Rep. Mike Bost: “President Trump has made clear that all freedom loving nations have a responsibility to shoulder the load for protecting our values in a dangerous world. For far too long, the United States carried a disproportionate financial weight at NATO, while allies failed to pay their fair share. But that changed yesterday. Thanks to President Trump’s bold leadership, NATO countries almost universally have committed to increasing their defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. This is a major victory for American taxpayers and a safer world.”

Rep. Ken Calvert: “NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is absolutely correct. President Trump’s leadership is responsible for strengthening NATO, getting our European allies to expand their commitments, and improve the security of our important alliance.”

Rep. Eli Crane: “The free ride is over.”

Rep. Neal Dunn: “@NATO countries agree to increase defense spending from 2% of GDP to 5% of GDP. This represents the most decisive move by our allies in more than a decade. With this action, the Alliance will be stronger than ever!”

Rep. Pat Fallon: “A stronger NATO will stop future conflicts before they start.”

Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez: “After four years of Biden-Harris failures, the United States is respected once again on the world stage. Thank you, @POTUS”

Rep. Mark Green: “The fact that nearly all of our NATO allies agreed to increase defense spending to 5% is a major victory for President Trump. This shift in burden-sharing will ensure that the United States and our allies are greater prepared to deter Chinese, Russian, and Iranian aggression.”

Rep. Lance Gooden: “✅ NATO members commit to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP ✅ Ceasefire between Iran and Israel … The adults are back in charge and the world RESPECTS President @realDonaldTrump!”

Rep. Brett Guthrie: “Huge win for peace through strength on the world stage at the NATO Summit. The 5% defense spending commitment by almost all member countries is exactly what is necessary to counter our adversaries. Thank you @POTUS for leading the charge!”

Rep. Wesley Hunt: “Huge win for the United States comes following the NATO meeting. Other countries will now contribute 5% toward NATO! The United States will no longer fund the security of the entire world. President Trump is putting America FIRST!”

Rep. Jim Jordan: “Thank goodness we had President Trump at the NATO Summit instead of President Biden. America is back and more powerful on the world stage!”

Rep. Frank Lucas: “At today’s NATO summit, @POTUS displayed to the world America’s renewed and rightful place as the dominant global superpower. He delivered peace to a region plagued by conflict, leant needed support to our friends in Israel, and instilled fear in our adversaries. I thank President Trump for his continued legacy of peacebuilding and for reinforcing that peace through strength is a necessary component of American foreign policy.”

Rep. Michael McCaul: “For too long, the U.S. has carried the financial and military burden for NATO. That’s going to change, thanks to today’s extraordinary commitment from NATO countries to increase to 5% defense spending. Bravo, President Trump!”

Rep. Mike Turner: “I applaud strong leadership of President Trump in convincing our European & Canadian partners of their shared responsibilities to peace and security, not just in words but of investments in collective defense.”

Rep. Tony Wied: “It’s well past time our allies in NATO pay their fair share. President Trump is making sure Americans no longer have to foot the bill for other nation’s defense. America First”