The United States and Ukraine on Wednesday signed a minerals deal after a two-month delay, in what President Donald Trump’s administration called a new form of U.S. commitment to Kyiv after the end of military aid.

Ukraine said it secured key interests after protracted negotiations, including full sovereignty over its own rare earths, which are vital for new technologies and largely untapped.

Trump had initially demanded rights to Ukraine’s mineral wealth as compensation for the billions of dollars in U.S. weapons sent under former president Joe Biden after Russia invaded just over three years ago.

After initial hesitation, Ukraine has accepted a minerals accord as a way to secure long-term investment by the United States, as Trump tries to drastically scale back U.S. security commitments around the world.

Announcing the signing of the deal in Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it showed “both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine.”

“This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” Bessent said.

“And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

In Kyiv, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on national television that the agreement was “good, equal and beneficial.”

In a post on Telegram, Shmyhal said that the two countries would establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund with each side having 50% voting rights.

“Ukraine retains full control over its subsoil, infrastructure and natural resources,” he said.

Meeting a key concern for Kyiv, he said Ukraine would not be asked to pay back any “debt” for the billions of dollars in U.S. weapons and other support since Russia invaded in February 2022.

“The fund’s profits will be reinvested exclusively in Ukraine,” he said.

9:15 AM America/New York Tuesday, June 17

Report for Tuesday, June 17, 2025 Trump departs G7 early as U.S. moves military assets to Europe and the Middle East

Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv kill 15, injure at least 114

Iran signals desire to de-escalate as G7 leaders call Tehran “source” of instability

What the capsizing and relaunching of a warship tells us about North Korea’s regime

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES Opinion: What’s Happening in L.A. May Not Stay in L.A. Walter Pincus warns that President Donald Trump’s unilateral federalization of the California National Guard amid Los Angeles immigration protests could set a dangerous constitutional precedent. Pincus details how U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer ruled Trump’s actions illegal, citing violations of both statutory authority and the Tenth Amendment. Trump activated 2,000 Guard troops without notifying Governor Gavin Newsom, as required by law, to quell protests sparked by aggressive Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. The move, based on claims of rebellion, bypassed necessary coordination with state authorities and left open the possibility of federalizing other states’ Guards. Pincus stresses that 20 states have joined California in challenging this unprecedented power grab, arguing that the June 7 memo’s vague wording threatens state sovereignty nationwide. With the case now before the Ninth Circuit Court, Pincus concludes the outcome could have sweeping implications for the balance of power between state and federal governments. The Cipher Brief Opinion: South Korea’s New President. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani views South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-Myung, as ushering in a hopeful era focused on peace, economic revival, and regional stability. Lee replaces Yoon Suk-Yeol, whose attempt to impose martial law damaged democratic norms. DeTrani praises Lee’s commitment to the U.S.-South Korea alliance, trilateral cooperation with Japan, and pragmatic diplomacy with neighbors such as China. While acknowledging China’s economic importance, DeTrani stresses the enduring value of the U.S. alliance, especially its security guarantees and troop presence. He supports Lee’s call for renewed inter-Korean dialogue and humanitarian outreach, urging creative U.S. engagement with North Korea. He warns against Chinese coercion. DeTrani views Lee’s presidency as an opportunity to reassert democratic values, enhance regional diplomacy, and balance relations between the U.S. and China amid heightened Indo-Pacific tensions. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani views South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-Myung, as ushering in a hopeful era focused on peace, economic revival, and regional stability. Lee replaces Yoon Suk-Yeol, whose attempt to impose martial law damaged democratic norms. DeTrani praises Lee’s commitment to the U.S.-South Korea alliance, trilateral cooperation with Japan, and pragmatic diplomacy with neighbors such as China. While acknowledging China’s economic importance, DeTrani stresses the enduring value of the U.S. alliance, especially its security guarantees and troop presence. He supports Lee’s call for renewed inter-Korean dialogue and humanitarian outreach, urging creative U.S. engagement with North Korea. He warns against Chinese coercion. DeTrani views Lee’s presidency as an opportunity to reassert democratic values, enhance regional diplomacy, and balance relations between the U.S. and China amid heightened Indo-Pacific tensions. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS Trump leaves the G7 summit early after major warning to Tehran. President Donald Trump abruptly announced his early departure Monday from the G7 summit in Canada amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Just hours before leaving, Trump posted on Truth Social: “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” His dramatic warning followed Israeli strikes in Tehran and heightened fears of broader regional war. The U.S. has supported Israel’s defense but remains officially uninvolved in the strikes. Trump cited the need to “attend to important matters” as the reason for cutting short his trip. During the summit, he finalized a trade deal with the UK. Before leaving, he also joined other leaders in signing a statement criticizing Iran. Trump had previously refused to sign the statement, but decided to do so when the draft language was adjusted. His departure canceled planned meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and others on Tuesday. Bloomberg Axios Reuters The Times of Israel Trump says he left G7 early to seek a ‘real end’ to Israel-Iran conflict, not just a ceasefire. As he departed the G7 summit in Canada, Trump told reporters he was seeking “a real end, not a cease-fire,” and that Tehran must abandon any effort to develop nuclear weapons. “I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate,” he added. Trump predicted that Israel would not be easing its attacks on Iran. “You’re going to find out over the next two days. You’re going to find out. Nobody’s slowed up so far,” a CBS journalist quoted Trump as saying on Air Force One. His remarks came as Israel and Iran traded attacks for a fifth day on Tuesday. The Iranian armed forces also warned Israel of a new wave of “fierce attacks” with “new and advanced weapons” that will intensify on Tuesday. CNN Politico EU Reuters US bolsters Trump’s Middle East military options by moving refueling aircraft, officials say. In response to escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, the U.S. has expanded its military posture in the Middle East and Europe. Over 30 U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft have been deployed to European bases, enabling extended operations across the region. The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group are rerouting to the Middle East, joining other U.S. naval assets already positioned there. These moves provide President Donald Trump with a broader range of strategic options, though the Pentagon maintains they are defensive. While the U.S. has not joined Israel’s strikes, it has supported missile defense efforts and bolstered deterrence. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized the protection of U.S. forces. Reuters Washington Post Trump disputes intel chief Tulsi Gabbard’s prior testimony on Iran’s nuclear capabilities . President Donald Trump publicly contradicted his own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, over Iran’s nuclear status, insisting to reporters that Iran was “very close” to developing a nuclear weapon. His assessment follows Gabbard’s testimony in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and had not resumed its reportedly suspended program. Trump dismissed Gabbard’s assessment, stating to reporters on Air Force One, “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having it.” U.S. intelligence had maintained that Iran is still years away from being able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aligned with Trump, claims Israeli intelligence showed Iran was secretly accelerating its nuclear weapons development. CNN G7 leaders agree on strategy to protect critical mineral supply, draft document says. At the G7 summit in Canada, leaders provisionally agreed on a joint strategy Monday to protect critical mineral supply chains, aiming to bolster economic and national security. The draft statement—still awaiting approval from U.S. President Donald Trump—emphasizes the need for minerals markets to reflect the true costs of responsible extraction and trade. The move follows China’s April suspension of critical mineral exports, which disrupted supply to key industries. The G7 plans to counter non-market practices by diversifying mining, processing, and recycling, while enhancing coordination to mitigate future supply disruptions. Rare earths remain a strategic leverage point for Beijing. Reuters

Starmer, Trump Agree to Implement Tariff-Cutting Trade Deal. At the G7 summit in Canada, U.S. President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer finalized a trade agreement on Monday aimed at reducing tariffs and expanding market access. The deal lowers U.S. tariffs on British auto exports from 27.5% to 10% for up to 100,000 vehicles annually, and grants tariff exemptions for UK civil aerospace products. In return, the UK will increase quotas for U.S. agricultural goods, including reciprocal access for 13,000 metric tons of beef, although UK food safety standards will still apply. The agreement falls short on steel, with existing 25% tariffs remaining in place, pending a future quota to be set by the U.S. Commerce Department. The UK also pledged to address U.S. concerns over foreign ownership in its steel sector. Though symbolically important, the deal leaves unresolved issues, particularly around steel and aluminum, while serving as an early success for Trump’s broader tariff strategy. Bloomberg Reuters CNN Fact check: At G7, Trump makes false claims about Trudeau, Ukraine and immigration. At the G7 summit in Canada on Monday, President Donald Trump made several inaccurate claims. He wrongly attributed Russia’s 2014 expulsion from the G8 to former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who did not take office until 2015. The move was actually led by then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Trump also mischaracterized his UK trade deal as involving the European Union, which the UK exited in 2020. Additionally, he repeated the false claim that former President Joe Biden provided Ukraine with $350 billion in aid. According to the Kiel Institute, U.S. commitments totaled around $138 billion by April 2025, with actual disbursements closer to $90 billion. Trump further overstated immigration figures, claiming Biden allowed 21 million people into the U.S.; available data indicates fewer than 11 million migrant encounters occurred under Biden, with an estimated 2.2 million additional undetected entries, falling well short of Trump’s figure. CNN Trump Renews Embrace of Putin Amid Ongoing Rift With Allies. Before leaving the G7 summit in Canada a day early on Monday, President Donald Trump reignited concerns over his long standing alignment with President Vladimir Putin, criticizing Russia’s 2014 expulsion from the G8 and blaming Western leaders for the ongoing war in Ukraine. Echoing remarks he made in 2018, Trump argued Russia’s presence is needed for negotiations and emphasized his unique rapport with Putin, whom he said “speaks to me; he doesn’t speak to anybody else.” Despite Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Trump has expressed frustration with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, and has floated Putin as a potential Middle East mediator. His remarks reinforced a pattern of undermining U.S. allies while defending Moscow, raising alarm among Western leaders. Former officials like John Bolton and Daniel Price criticized Trump’s historical ignorance and his seeming desire to rehabilitate Putin rather than stand with the pro-Ukraine defense consensus. Trump’s rhetoric highlights an enduring drift toward Russian interests at odds with U.S. and NATO priorities. New York Times DHS reverses guidance that halted ICE raids on farms, hotels and restaurants. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has reversed recent guidance that would have paused immigration raids at farms, hotels, restaurants, and meatpacking plants. This shift aligns with President Trump’s push for a massive deportation campaign targeting undocumented immigrants. The earlier exemption, issued last week, came after Trump expressed concern for farmers and hospitality executives worried about losing workers. However, following pressure from White House officials—particularly immigration adviser Stephen Miller—DHS told Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on Monday to resume worksite enforcement nationwide. Trump has since ordered ICE to fully execute what he calls the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history. ICE has been instructed to reach 3,000 arrests per day, up from the current 2,000. Industries dependent on undocumented labor continue lobbying against broad enforcement. The policy shift highlights competing interests within the administration and growing tensions between economic and political priorities. Washington Post Reuters The Independent Colombia Senator Uribe out of surgery but extremely critical, hospital says. Colombian Senator Miguel Uribe, who has been hospitalized since he was shot in the head earlier this month during a campaign event, has been transferred to emergency surgery for a brain bleed, the Santa Fe Foundation hospital said on Monday. Uribe, 39, a potential presidential candidate from the right-wing opposition, was shot in Bogota on June 7 during a rally. “Patient Miguel Uribe Turbay required transfer to surgery a few minutes ago for an urgent neurological procedure, because of clinical evidence and imaging showing an acute inter-cerebral bleed,” the hospital said in a statement. Colombian Senator Miguel Uribe, who has been hospitalized since he was shot in the head earlier this month during a campaign event, has been transferred to emergency surgery for a brain bleed, the Santa Fe Foundation hospital said on Monday. Uribe, 39, a potential presidential candidate from the right-wing opposition, was shot in Bogota on June 7 during a rally. “Patient Miguel Uribe Turbay required transfer to surgery a few minutes ago for an urgent neurological procedure, because of clinical evidence and imaging showing an acute inter-cerebral bleed,” the hospital said in a statement. Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv kill 15, injure at least 114. In one of the deadliest assaults on Kyiv in months, Russia launched a nearly 10-hour overnight barrage of drones and missiles on Tuesday, killing at least 15 and injuring 114. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the assault “one of the most horrifying attacks on Kyiv,” saying more than 440 drones and 32 missiles were launched across Ukraine overnight. Air raid sirens blared as explosions echoed across the capital, damaging buildings in at least six districts, including Solomianskyi and Sviatoshynskyi. Several residential buildings were destroyed or set ablaze, and a kindergarten and a dormitory at the Kyiv Aviation Institute were also hit. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that a 62-year-old U.S. citizen was found dead in the Solomianskyi district near a building where medics were treating victims. While it is unclear whether a strike directly killed him, his death occurred during the attack. Rescue teams continue searching for survivors under rubble amid reports of people still trapped. The strike follows a surge in Russian assaults in May and June, marked by drone swarms followed by missile salvos to overwhelm defenses. Also, Russian strikes on Odesa early Tuesday killed 1 and injured 17 people. New York Times Kyiv Independent Cluster munitions used in overnight Russian strike on Ukraine, Kyiv mayor says. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that emergency crews found fragments of cluster munitions in the city’s Nyvky neighborhood following a Russian missile and drone attack on Tuesday. He called it further proof of Russia’s “genocide” against Ukrainians. Cluster munitions are banned by over 100 countries due to their indiscriminate impact and danger to civilians. Though neither Russia nor Ukraine signed the treaty, rights groups have condemned their use in populated areas by both sides. Kyiv Independent Russia ramps up its summer offensive in several directions, Ukraine’s military says. Ukraine’s military reported a sharp escalation in Russia’s summer offensive across multiple fronts on Monday. Victor Tregubov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia group, said Russian forces had intensified attacks in the Novopavlivka and Kharkiv sectors. Ukraine’s General Staff recorded 99 clashes that day, including 17 repelled assaults in Novopavlivka alone. Tregubov said this marked the “expected summer increase in activity” and suggested Russia aimed to push toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, though without success. In Donetsk Oblast, Russia is attempting to encircle Kostiantynivka, a vital logistics hub, from three directions. On June 13, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed heavy fighting along the northeastern border and noted Russian incursions in Sumy and brief cross-border actions into Dnipropetrovsk. Kyiv Independent Russian military-industrial chemical plant halts operations after Ukrainian drone strike. Ukraine’s drone strike forced the suspension of operations at Russia’s Nevinnomyssk Azot chemical plant, a major producer of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers vital to the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex, Russian independent media outlet Astra reported on Monday. The plant supplies components for explosives and fuel, including ammonium nitrate and dual-use chemicals like melamine and methanol. Ukrainian officials say the facility supports weapons production, including grenade launchers and rocket charges. Owned by sanctioned oligarch Andrey Melnichenko, the plant’s shutdown marks a blow to Russia’s war infrastructure. Kyiv Independent Russian air defense units destroy 51 Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region. Russian air defense units destroyed 51 Ukrainian drones over the border Belgorod region over a 3-1/2 hour period late on Monday, the Defense Ministry said. A ministry statement on the Telegram messaging app said the drones were destroyed between 8 p.m. and 11.30 p.m. in the region. Reuters Russia Is Churning Out Attack Drones. Ukraine Is Feeling the Impact. Russia has dramatically escalated its drone campaign against Ukraine in 2025, launching over 20,000 attack and decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Many of these drones are domestically produced Shahed models, part of a $1.75 billion deal with Iran that allowed Moscow to manufacture the drones on Russian soil. On June 10 alone, 315 drones and seven missiles struck Kyiv, damaging historic landmarks like St. Sophia Cathedral. Ukrainian officials say the scale and frequency of these attacks aim to saturate defenses and cause chaos. Ukraine has responded with counterstrikes, including deep drone attacks on Russian production sites. However, Ukraine’s air defenses—dependent on limited Patriot systems—remain stretched. President Trump has rebuked Russia for civilian casualties but resisted new sanctions or major military aid. Russia uses a mix of drone types and tactics, including staggered swarm attacks and missile combinations, often launched from Crimea. Ukrainian forces rely on mobile air-defense units, jets, and German systems to counter the threat. Wall Street Journal Trump hints at no more US sanctions on Russia at G7 summit. President Donald Trump signaled opposition Monday to imposing new U.S. sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine. He told reporters at the G7 summit in Canada that sanctions “cost the U.S. a lot of money — a tremendous amount of money,” describing them as complex and economically burdensome. Trump added, “It’s not just a one-way street,” and emphasized that sanctions involve “billions and billions of dollars.” In response to European calls for stronger action, Trump said, “Let’s see them do it first,” implying that the U.S. would not lead on additional sanctions. He also expressed a preference for pursuing stalled peace talks with Russia before taking punitive measures and questioned whether fresh sanctions would be effective without prior commitments from European allies. Politico EU Bloomberg

Trump administration disbands group focused on pressuring Russia, sources say. The Trump administration recently shut down an inter-agency working group formed to pressure Russia into advancing peace talks with Ukraine, U.S. officials told Reuters. Created earlier in 2025, the group lost momentum in May as President Trump grew disinterested in a tougher stance on Moscow. Its dissolution followed a major purge of the White House National Security Council, including key Ukraine experts. Though the group had discussed economic and covert options to curb Russian influence, it never finalized strategies. The move has raised concerns among U.S. allies, especially ahead of a key NATO summit. Reuters Zelensky to seek G7 support as Trump’s early exit puts dampener on summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will on Tuesday urge the Group of Seven to provide more backing for the war against Russia even after U.S. President Donald Trump left the summit early due to developments in the Middle East. Zelensky is due to meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the morning before attending a G7 working breakfast on “A strong and sovereign Ukraine”, accompanied by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Reuters

Ukraine’s field hospitals keep getting hit, so they are moving underground. Facing relentless Russian attacks on medical sites, Ukrainian medics have built the country’s first underground field hospital near the eastern front. Located nearly 20 feet below ground and reinforced with metal structures, the facility enables surgeries in relative safety and has withstood multiple near misses. Medics say Russia deliberately targets field hospitals—a war crime—forcing them to abandon NATO-style surface clinics in favor of concealed, fortified designs. Staff work in 48-hour shifts, treating shrapnel wounds, chemical exposure, and amputations. The hospital, largely built through donations, handles up to 400 patients daily but lacks funding for advanced equipment due to shifts in foreign aid following the change in U.S. leadership. Medics fear that superficial peace talks may lead to renewed violence if not backed by real security guarantees. Amid exhaustion and trauma, they continue—underground and under threat. Washington Post Ukraine Takes First Step Toward Carrying Out Minerals Deal With U.S. Ukraine has taken its first concrete step toward implementing a U.S.-Ukraine minerals agreement signed in April, which grants the U.S. a stake in the extraction of critical resources. On Monday, Kyiv began drafting recommendations to open bidding for the Dobra lithium field, one of Ukraine’s largest. Among the likely bidders for a production-sharing agreement is a consortium of investors that includes TechMet, an energy investment firm partly owned by the U.S. government, and Ronald S. Lauder, a billionaire friend of President Trump. Half of Ukraine’s mineral revenue would go to a joint investment fund with the U.S., partly framed as repayment for wartime aid. The U.S. sees Ukraine’s mineral reserves—including lithium, titanium, and graphite—as key to reducing reliance on China. However, analysts caution that most projects may take a decade to mature due to war, outdated surveys, and infrastructure damage. To accelerate profits, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko also proposed expanding the fund to support Ukraine’s undercapitalized but growing defense sector. New York Times Ukraine says repatriation of war dead over after 1,245 more bodies received from Russia. Ukraine announced the completion of a large-scale repatriation of war dead, receiving 1,245 more bodies from Russia on Monday under an agreement reached during recent talks in Istanbul. In total, over 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers’ remains have been returned since the agreement took effect last week, marking one of the largest such exchanges since the war began. Russia reported handing over 6,060 bodies, while Ukraine confirmed receiving 6,057. In return, Russia received the remains of 78 soldiers Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, June 16. Russia appears to be depleting its Soviet-era tank stock more slowly, likely due to increased use of motorcycles and ATVs to offset drone-related losses. Satellite imagery shows Russia upgrading at least five nuclear-related facilities in western Russia and Belarus, signaling continued strategic military development. Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and in Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka. Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and in Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE Russia says U.S. has canceled next round of talks on easing tensions. Russia said Monday that the United States had canceled the next round of bilateral talks aimed at easing diplomatic tensions, without providing a reason. The discussions, initiated after President Donald Trump returned to office in January, were focused on resolving issues affecting U.S. and Russian diplomatic missions and had been set to move from Istanbul to Moscow. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova expressed hope that the pause would be brief. Despite five recent phone calls between Presidents Trump and Putin, including one on June 14, progress on broader U.S.-Russia relations and the war in Ukraine remains limited. The U.S. State Department has not commented on the cancellation. Reuters Bloomberg French finance companies launch European defense investment fund. Four major French financial firms—Tikehau Capital, Societe Generale Assurances, CNP Assurances, and CARAC Group—launched the Tikehau Defense and Security fund with an initial commitment of €150 million ($173.4 million). Backed by France’s Ministry of Defence, the fund aims to support European defense and security amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine war. It aligns with the EU’s broader rearmament effort, which includes up to €800 billion earmarked for defense by 2030. CARAC CEO Michel Andignac said the fund supports French and European strategic autonomy through investment in defense-related companies. Reuters Europeans rush drone-based radar jammers in effort to supplant US tech . European NATO countries are increasingly investing in drone-based electronic warfare (EW) systems to reduce reliance on U.S. capabilities and counter rising threats, especially from Russia. Italy’s Leonardo is leading with its StormShroud jammer drone, based on its BriteStorm system, which has drawn interest from 10–20 NATO members. These drones provide cost-effective, stand-in jamming close to hostile defenses, essential for Eastern European countries facing extended threat zones. The shift reflects lessons from Ukraine, where drones play key roles in EW and decoy missions. Competing systems from Raytheon, Hensoldt, and Thales are also advancing, while EU-backed initiatives like REACT aim to develop integrated, multi-platform EW solutions. Defense News Europe’s frontier countries ready their hospitals for war. Countries along NATO’s eastern flank—especially Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland—are rapidly preparing their healthcare systems for the possibility of war, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fears of future conflict. These nations are conducting mass casualty drills, hardening hospital infrastructure, stockpiling trauma supplies, and equipping medical staff with body armor. Facilities are being adapted for wartime resilience, including underground operating rooms and satellite communications. Staffing remains a challenge, with surveys showing many healthcare workers might flee during conflict. Latvia and Estonia are reinforcing system-wide crisis training, while Lithuania is hosting multiple military-medical exercises. Meanwhile, refugee and patient overflow planning is becoming a pan-European concern, with European Union solidarity likely to be tested in a major conflict. Experts warn that casualty rates could vastly exceed Ukraine’s, underscoring the urgency of coordinated medical preparedness and supply planning across the continent. As one official put it: “Crisis never shouts when it’s coming.” Politico EU Russia fears Israel’s conflict with Iran could cost it another Mideast ally. Russia initially saw Israel’s strikes on Iran as an opportunity to divert global attention from Ukraine and raise oil prices. However, as the conflict deepens, Moscow fears losing Iran—its closest Middle East ally. Regime change in Tehran could weaken Russia’s anti-Western alliance, especially after it has already lost sway in Syria. The Kremlin is alarmed by Iran’s vulnerability, though some analysts warn external pressure might rally Iranian unity. While Russia benefits in the short term from rising oil revenues, the risk of regional escalation—and even global war—looms. If Iran’s regime falls, future leadership is unlikely to favor Moscow, threatening Russia’s regional influence and strategic partnerships. Washington Post Satellite images show expansion at 5 Russian nuclear sites near Europe. Satellite imagery analyzed by Planet Labs and reported by Swedish broadcaster SVT reveals that Russia has expanded and modernized at least five nuclear-related sites near Europe. Key upgrades include a suspected nuclear storage facility in Kaliningrad, now with reinforced fencing and new buildings—possibly housing up to 100 tactical warheads. Renovations are also underway at Osipovichi in Belarus, Novaya Zemlya in the Arctic, and the Kola Peninsula near Finland and Norway, which now hosts dozens of bunkers and a submarine missile-loading pier. Sweden, a new NATO member as of March 2024, is monitoring the developments closely amid rising Russian nuclear saber-rattling. Kyiv Independent Danish military using robotic sailboats for surveillance in Baltic and North seas . Denmark has deployed four uncrewed “Voyager” sailboats, built by California-based firm Saildrone, for a three-month trial to bolster maritime surveillance amid rising tensions in the Baltic and North Seas. These 10-meter vessels, powered by wind and solar energy, carry advanced sensors and AI-driven systems capable of detecting threats like undersea cable sabotage, illegal fishing, and smuggling. The initiative follows incidents such as the Nord Stream pipeline explosion and repeated disruptions to undersea cables, which Western officials largely attribute to Russia’s “shadow fleet” and hybrid warfare tactics. Two Voyagers joined NATO patrols earlier this month, with two more launched from Koge Marina near Copenhagen. Denmark’s Defense Ministry says the trial aims to strengthen monitoring of critical infrastructure in under-observed waters. The use of these autonomous vessels is part of NATO’s broader plan to create a cost-effective, layered maritime surveillance system that reduces reliance on expensive warship patrols while enhancing constant monitoring of potential threats. Associated Press MI6 Names Its First Female Chief, Career Spy Blaise Metreweli. Blaise Metreweli has been named the first female chief of MI6, the United Kingdom’s foreign intelligence service, in its 116-year history. A career intelligence officer who previously served as the agency’s director general of technology and innovation—referred to internally as “Q”—Metreweli will succeed Richard Moore as the public-facing “C” this fall. Known for her operational experience in the Middle East and Europe, Metreweli has maintained a low public profile and is expected to bring a deeply technical, insider’s perspective to the role. Her appointment comes amid rising global threats, including cyberattacks and Russian espionage, and at a time when coordination with the U.S. intelligence community is complicated by concerns over President Trump’s ties to Vladimir Putin. Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed the move as historic, while Metreweli emphasized MI6’s role in protecting the U.K. and its allies. Her selection echoes the U.S. decision to appoint Gina Haspel as the first female CIA director, and reflects broader efforts to diversify the British intelligence community while adapting to the demands of modern, technology-driven espionage. New York Times BBC CNN la Repubblica EU Faces Struggle to Cut Russia Oil Price Cap on Mideast Risk. The European Union is struggling to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel amid U.S. resistance and a surge in global oil prices following Israeli strikes on Iran. The EU’s proposal, backed by the UK, aims to cut Russia’s oil revenues used to fund its war in Ukraine. However, several EU countries are hesitant to proceed without U.S. support, fearing limited impact without full G7 enforcement. The recent spike in crude prices—driven by fears of conflict escalation and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—has further complicated the initiative’s prospects. Final approval hinges on President Donald Trump’s decision. Bloomberg Latvia detains ex-MP in Russia probe. Latvian authorities have temporarily detained Aleksejs Rosļikovs, a leader of the ethnic Russian “For Stability!” party, on suspicion of aiding Russia and inciting national hatred. The investigation follows his June 5 expulsion from parliament for “unethical conduct” after he spoke Russian on the floor and made an obscene gesture while opposing a law requiring Russian-speaking residents to pass a Latvian language exam. Security services searched four locations linked to Rosļikovs and suspect his actions supported an “aggressor state.” Released after interrogation, Rosļikovs denies wrongdoing, calling the charges politically driven. If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison. Latvian authorities have temporarily detained Aleksejs Rosļikovs, a leader of the ethnic Russian “For Stability!” party, on suspicion of aiding Russia and inciting national hatred. The investigation follows his June 5 expulsion from parliament for “unethical conduct” after he spoke Russian on the floor and made an obscene gesture while opposing a law requiring Russian-speaking residents to pass a Latvian language exam. Security services searched four locations linked to Rosļikovs and suspect his actions supported an “aggressor state.” Released after interrogation, Rosļikovs denies wrongdoing, calling the charges politically driven. If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. tells allies it won’t join war unless Iran targets Americans. The Trump administration has reportedly told Middle Eastern allies that it will not get directly involved in the Israel-Iran war unless Tehran targets Americans. While the U.S. has assisted Israel in intercepting missiles, it stressed that Israel is acting alone in its offensive. This stance was communicated to regional allies both before and after the war began, likely in hopes they would convey it to Iran to deter retaliation against U.S. forces. Despite Iranian threats, no attacks on Americans have occurred, and Tehran appears cautious not to provoke U.S. involvement. Israel has urged Washington to join the war to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, but the Trump administration has declined, with the president also vetoing the idea of assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Although the U.S. is not participating militarily, it is moving assets like the Nimitz carrier group to the region in case of escalation. President Trump said Iran should negotiate soon, while Israel has shown no interest in a ceasefire until its military goals are met. Axios G7 expresses support for Israel, calls Iran source of instability . The G7 has issued a unified statement backing Israel’s right to self-defense and condemning Iran as “the principal source of regional instability and terror” amid escalating hostilities following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites. The declaration, issued during a summit in Canada, emphasized that Iran must never achieve nuclear weapons and called for broader de-escalation, including a Gaza ceasefire. President Trump left the summit early to address the crisis, while G7 leaders pledged to coordinate on stabilizing energy markets and safeguarding civilians. Reuters A Battered Iran Signals It Wants to De-Escalate Hostilities With Israel and Negotiate . Middle Eastern and European officials have revealed that Iran is urgently seeking to end hostilities and resume nuclear talks, sending messages through Arab intermediaries to both the U.S. and Israel. Tehran has indicated it is open to negotiations if the U.S. refrains from joining Israeli attacks. While Iran has attempted to contain the conflict, however, Israel continues to carry out its air campaign, aiming to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and weaken its regime. Though Iran’s military has suffered heavy losses, its nuclear infrastructure remains largely intact, and Israel plans at least two more weeks of strikes. Despite international calls for a ceasefire, including from French President Macron, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists attacks will continue until military goals are met. Iran warns it may escalate its nuclear program if talks don’t resume, and wants assurances that Washington won’t enter the war. Arab states are pressuring the U.S. to rein in Israel, fearing regional escalation that could threaten energy infrastructure and global markets. Israeli military claims killing of Iranian ‘war chief of staff .’ The Israeli military has claimed that it killed Major General Ali Shadmani, Iran’s top military commander and head of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters, in an airstrike just four days after he took over the role. He had succeeded Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, who was killed in Israel’s initial wave of strikes. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described Shadmani as Iran’s de facto war chief and a close confidant of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. As commander of both the Revolutionary Guards and the regular armed forces, Shadmani was responsible for directing Iran’s combat operations and attack plans. His death marks another major blow to the Islamic Republic’s military leadership amid the escalating conflict with Israel. Times of Israel Reuters Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb . President Trump is facing a pivotal decision in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict: whether to join Israel in striking Iran’s heavily fortified Fordo nuclear facility, which only U.S. B-2 bombers equipped with Massive Ordnance Penetrators can destroy. While Trump has promoted diplomacy and signaled interest in restarting nuclear talks, Iranian officials have warned that any U.S. involvement in direct attacks would kill the prospects for negotiation. Still, behind the scenes, Trump has encouraged Vice President JD Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff to pursue a potential diplomatic meeting with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who has indicated openness—if the U.S. reins in Israeli strikes. The dilemma underscores a deep divide within Trump’s political base and the national security establishment. Hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham urge Trump to fully support Israel militarily, while non-interventionists like Tucker Carlson insist the U.S. should avoid another Middle East war. Defense officials are also divided, with some warning that involvement in Iran would divert resources from strategic competition with China. For now, Trump is balancing both paths—holding out diplomacy as an option while keeping the threat of bunker-buster strikes on the table to force Iran’s hand. Ultimately, the decision will determine whether the U.S. becomes a combatant in a rapidly intensifying regional war. New York Times Iran’s Best-Protected Nuclear Site Is Deep Underground . Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, buried deep within a mountain, is its most fortified site and central to its uranium enrichment program. Only the U.S. military possesses the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs and B-2 stealth bombers capable of destroying it—capabilities Israel lacks. While Israel has launched strikes on Iranian infrastructure and gained temporary air superiority, experts agree that Fordo remains a highly challenging and resilient target. Without U.S. support, Israel may only be able to temporarily disable the site by targeting adjacent power facilities or using special operations forces, though such actions carry high risk. The U.S. has long resisted transferring bunker busters to Israel to avoid provoking a broader war, and any American strike would carry significant geopolitical and military consequences. As President Trump weighs his options, he faces pressure from hawks pushing for decisive action and caution from noninterventionists wary of entangling the U.S. in another Middle East conflict. New York Times How Missile Defense Works (and Why It Fails). In the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, Iran has launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israeli targets, testing the limits of even the world’s most advanced missile defense systems. While some missiles are intercepted, many break through due to the extreme difficulty of tracking and destroying warheads that travel at hypersonic speeds through space and re-enter the atmosphere within minutes. Israel’s multi-layered defense—including systems like Arrow 3, Arrow 2, THAAD, Patriot, and Iron Dome—works in tandem with U.S. assets, but can still be overwhelmed by large volleys, decoys, and debris confusion. The closer a missile gets to impact, the harder it is to stop, and even successful interceptions can cause deadly fallout. With no clear off-ramp and both sides entrenched, the conflict risks escalating into a battle of endurance as each side tests how long the other can sustain missile fire. New York Times How Tough Is Iran? A String of Military Losses Raises Questions. Iran, long portrayed as a major global threat due to its nuclear ambitions and regional influence, has seen its power and deterrence unravel following a series of devastating blows from Israel. Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in late 2023, Iran has lost key allies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime, while enduring major Israeli strikes on its air defenses, leadership, and nuclear infrastructure. Israel now has air superiority over the country, having even launched attacks from within Iranian territory and killed senior military figures and nuclear scientists. Iran’s strategy of relying on regional proxies and missile threats has proven ineffective, as those proxies have been weakened and its missile arsenal is being depleted faster than it can be replenished. With limited options, hesitancy to drag in the U.S., and improved ties with Gulf states constraining its actions, Iran faces a strategic dead end. Experts warn that this isolation and vulnerability may drive Tehran to pursue a nuclear weapon more openly than before. New York Times Chinese embassy in Israel urges citizens to leave . The Chinese embassy in Israel has advised its citizens to leave the country immediately, citing the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and the worsening security situation. In a notice posted Tuesday on WeChat, the embassy warned of rising civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. With Israeli airspace still closed, Chinese nationals were urged to exit via land border crossings, particularly the route into Jordan. Reuters Lebanese leaders indirectly urge Hezbollah to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict . Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have urged the country to remain neutral in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, warning that involvement would worsen Lebanon’s already dire economic and political crisis. Their remarks, delivered during a Cabinet meeting on Monday, served as a clear message to Hezbollah—a powerful Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon—not to reignite hostilities. Hezbollah previously engaged in heavy fighting with Israel following Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, resulting in over 4,000 Lebanese deaths and $11 billion in damages before a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect. With much of Hezbollah’s leadership lost in recent conflict, Lebanon’s leaders are seeking to avoid further devastation. Associated Press Israeli tank fire kills 51 people in Gaza crowd trying to get food . Israeli tank fire killed at least 51 Palestinians and wounded over 200 in Khan Younis, Gaza, as a crowd gathered near stalled aid trucks, seeking food. Witnesses said Israeli forces allowed the crowd to advance before firing shells. The Israeli military acknowledged firing in the area and is reviewing the incident. Gaza authorities report hundreds killed at similar aid sites in recent weeks. The deadly strike deepens the humanitarian crisis amid Israel’s ongoing war on Hamas, which has killed nearly 55,000 Palestinians since October 2023. World Health Organization officials said that the organization had received reports of a mass casualty incident on Tuesday that affected people waiting for food supplies, saying that initial reports point to at least 20 fatalities. Reuters UN rights chief calls on governments to ‘wake up’ to ‘horrifying’ suffering of Palestinians in Gaza . United Nations human rights chief Volker Türk has condemned Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, calling it a source of “horrifying, unconscionable suffering” for Palestinians and urging global leaders to press both Israel and Hamas to end the conflict. Speaking at the opening of a Human Rights Council session on Monday, Türk delivered some of his strongest criticism yet, emphasizing the vast civilian toll—over 55,300 deaths, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. He also criticized Israel’s warfare methods and raised broader concerns about conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel’s mission in Geneva rejected Türk’s comments, accusing him of spreading misinformation and failing to denounce Hamas. Meanwhile, Doctors Without Borders described Gaza as a “hell on earth” and appealed to the EU for action. . United Nations human rights chief Volker Türk has condemned Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, calling it a source of “horrifying, unconscionable suffering” for Palestinians and urging global leaders to press both Israel and Hamas to end the conflict. Speaking at the opening of a Human Rights Council session on Monday, Türk delivered some of his strongest criticism yet, emphasizing the vast civilian toll—over 55,300 deaths, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. He also criticized Israel’s warfare methods and raised broader concerns about conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, and escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel’s mission in Geneva rejected Türk’s comments, accusing him of spreading misinformation and failing to denounce Hamas. Meanwhile, Doctors Without Borders described Gaza as a “hell on earth” and appealed to the EU for action. Associated Press The Guardian

ASIA & OCEANIA What the capsizing and relaunching of a warship tells us about North Korea’s regime . The global attention on North Korea’s recent warship mishap stems less from the technical failure and more from Kim Jong Un’s unusually public and forceful response. When the 5,000-ton destroyer capsized during its launch in May, Kim called it a “criminal act” caused by “absolute carelessness and irresponsibility,” and swiftly ordered repairs and arrests. Analysts say this reveals both North Korea’s determination to build a nuclear-armed navy and Kim’s evolving propaganda strategy. Rather than conceal failure, Kim chose to publicize it, punish those responsible, and then turn the rapid repair into a symbol of state competence and loyalty. The ship, one of two new destroyers, marks a major step in Pyongyang’s effort to close the naval power gap with adversaries like the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. Experts warn the regime’s ambitions—once regarded with global skepticism—are advancing quickly. Kim’s ultimate goal appears to be transforming North Korea’s outdated navy into a global force capable of launching nuclear strikes, which poses growing security risks. BBC US pushes Vietnam to decouple from Chinese tech, sources say . The U.S. is pressuring Vietnam to reduce its reliance on Chinese technology in electronics assembled for export to America, aiming to restructure global supply chains and accelerate decoupling from China. Companies like Apple, Samsung, Meta, and Google rely on Vietnamese factories that often use Chinese components. The Trump administration has threatened 46% tariffs on Vietnam-made goods if changes aren’t made by July 8. Vietnam has begun meeting with local firms to increase domestic tech production, but businesses warn they need time and resources to adjust. The U.S. also wants Hanoi to address deceptive “Made in Vietnam” labeling on Chinese goods. Despite some progress in talks, major issues remain unresolved. While Vietnam is eager to grow its industrial base, its tech supply chain still lags China’s by 15–20 years. Rapid changes risk straining ties with Beijing, a key investor and trading partner. A possible meeting between President Trump and Vietnam’s top leader is expected in late June. Reuters China’s state security agency warns of phishing emails sent by foreign spies . China’s top spy agency on Tuesday accused foreign intelligence services of sending phishing emails with Trojan malware to Chinese military research institutes, universities, and government bodies. In one case, a shipbuilding expert at a major university received a fake job application containing a password-protected resume embedded with malicious software. The malware, once opened, could have allowed hackers to take control of the recipient’s computer and steal data. However, no sensitive information was stored on the device. The Ministry of State Security warned that phishing remains a key tactic for foreign espionage and urged strict cybersecurity practices for anyone handling confidential information. South China Morning Post Paris Air Show: China gives glimpse of 5th-gen J-35A fighter model in bid for foreign sales . China has showcased a scale model of its new fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-35A, for the first time overseas at the Paris Air Show, aiming to boost international sales of its advanced military aircraft. Developed by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, the J-35A is a land-based variant of the J-35, originally designed for aircraft carriers, and first flew in September 2023. While Europe has ruled out buying Chinese military jets, demand has grown in developing nations, with Pakistan reportedly offered 40 J-35s. China also promoted the J-10CE, a 4.5-generation fighter used by Pakistan since 2022, and the widely exported JF-17. These aircraft were presented alongside Western jets like the F-35A and Rafale. China’s rising presence in global arms markets—especially in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa—reflects its strategic push to compete with Western defense manufacturers, though geopolitical tensions continue to shape buyer decisions and deployment claims remain contested. South China Morning Post Swedish weapons think tank reports rapid expansion of Chinese nuclear arsenal . The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country. According to SIPRI, China’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force is on pace to equal that of Russia or the U.S. by the turn of the decade. The Swedish weapons research think tank noted that China has added 100 more warheads to its nuclear stockpile each year since 2023 for a total of at least 600. In addition, China has completed construction of about 350 new ICBM silos located in the country’s northern desert areas or in three mountainous areas to the east. The SIPRI report said China deployed the DF-41 missile equipped with MIRV technology within the past five years to complement previous deployments of DF-5 ICBMs. The report went on to project that if each of the new silos was filled with a missile equipped with three MIRVs, the number of warheads could increase to more than 1200. SIPRI said China is in “the middle of a significant modernization and expansion of its nuclear arsenal” as it refits its Type 094 ballistic missile submarines with longer-range missiles while also developing a new Type 096 SSBN and strategic bomber aircraft. South China Morning Post China’s Xi meets Kazakh leader Tokayev, widen cooperation, Xinhua says . China and Kazakhstan signed multiple cooperation agreements on trade, investment, technology, tourism, and customs during a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana. According to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency, Xi emphasized the importance of multilateralism and protecting the shared interests of developing nations. He also urged progress on cross-border railway and port infrastructure projects, while calling for deeper collaboration in law enforcement and defense to combat terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Reuters

Australia’s Albanese confident on AUKUS after British leader says it will proceed. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese welcomed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s affirmation at the G7 summit that the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact with the U.S. and Australia will move forward, despite a Pentagon review. Starmer, speaking alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, said both nations remain committed to the agreement, which aims to bolster Canberra’s naval capabilities in response to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Albanese, who was set to meet Trump to advocate for AUKUS, did not get the opportunity after Trump left the summit early. Nonetheless, Albanese expressed confidence in the continued support of all three AUKUS partners. The deal, unveiled in 2023, would provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines starting in the early 2030s. A Pentagon official recently confirmed the agreement is being reviewed to ensure it aligns with Trump’s “America First” policy. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese welcomed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s affirmation at the G7 summit that the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact with the U.S. and Australia will move forward, despite a Pentagon review. Starmer, speaking alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, said both nations remain committed to the agreement, which aims to bolster Canberra’s naval capabilities in response to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Albanese, who was set to meet Trump to advocate for AUKUS, did not get the opportunity after Trump left the summit early. Nonetheless, Albanese expressed confidence in the continued support of all three AUKUS partners. The deal, unveiled in 2023, would provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines starting in the early 2030s. A Pentagon official recently confirmed the agreement is being reviewed to ensure it aligns with Trump’s “America First” policy. Reuters

AFRICA Sudan in danger of self-destructing as conflict and famine reign . Sudan’s devastating civil war has reached a stalemate, with neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) able to secure a decisive victory. The Sudanese people are bearing the brunt, suffering famine, mass displacement, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. The army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, managed to recapture parts of Khartoum with new weapons from regional allies, but stalled soon after. The RSF, under Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), retaliated with advanced drone strikes and formed alliances to expand its operations. In Darfur, a brutal siege by the RSF is triggering fears of ethnic cleansing. Despite diplomatic efforts, including an April conference in London, peace remains elusive due to regional divisions, and the UN’s approach has proven unrealistic. Meanwhile, civic groups struggle to survive amid repression and defunding. With over half the population displaced and nearly a million at risk of famine, Sudan faces the world’s largest humanitarian disaster—largely neglected by the international community. BBC Amid democratic backsliding, Togo suspends French broadcasters RFI and France 24. Togo has suspended broadcasts by French state-owned media outlets Radio France Internationale (RFI) and France 24 for three months, accusing them of biased and inaccurate reporting that allegedly threatens national stability. The country’s media regulator cited repeated failures in impartiality, fact-checking, and journalistic rigor. While no specific examples were given, the suspension comes amid rising political tensions over constitutional changes that critics say could allow President Faure Gnassingbé to stay in power indefinitely. The move has sparked concerns over press freedom, with protests planned for next week despite a national ban on demonstrations. Regional observers worry the situation may further destabilize a region already grappling with democratic backsliding. Associated Press RFI Canadian gold miner placed under temporary provisional administration in Mali . A Malian judge has placed Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine under six months of provisional administration amid a deepening dispute between the Canadian mining giant and the country’s military-led government over alleged unpaid taxes. The ruling appoints a former health minister as administrator, temporarily stripping Barrick of operational control, though the company retains legal ownership. The conflict escalated after Mali issued an arrest warrant for Barrick CEO Mark Bristow last year, and detained employees while suspending gold exports. Barrick, Africa’s largest gold producer, has offered to pay $370 million and has filed for arbitration with the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes. Mali, facing economic hardship and security challenges, has recently increased pressure on foreign miners to boost state revenue. A similar tax dispute last year led to the detention of Australian mining executives. . A Malian judge has placed Barrick Gold’s Loulo-Gounkoto mine under six months of provisional administration amid a deepening dispute between the Canadian mining giant and the country’s military-led government over alleged unpaid taxes. The ruling appoints a former health minister as administrator, temporarily stripping Barrick of operational control, though the company retains legal ownership. The conflict escalated after Mali issued an arrest warrant for Barrick CEO Mark Bristow last year, and detained employees while suspending gold exports. Barrick, Africa’s largest gold producer, has offered to pay $370 million and has filed for arbitration with the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes. Mali, facing economic hardship and security challenges, has recently increased pressure on foreign miners to boost state revenue. A similar tax dispute last year led to the detention of Australian mining executives. Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters Nasdaq

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS OpenAI secures $200 million US defense contract . The Pentagon announced on Monday that OpenAI has secured a $200 million contract from the U.S. Defense Department to develop advanced artificial intelligence tools for national security, both in military operations and administrative functions. According to the Pentagon, the project will involve creating prototype “frontier AI capabilities” and is expected to be completed by July 2026, primarily in the Washington area. This marks a significant government collaboration for OpenAI, which recently reported a $10 billion annualized revenue run rate amid growing global AI adoption. Reuters Bloomberg France 24 Elon Musk’s X sees partial recovery after outage hits US users, Downdetector shows . Social media platform X, formerly Twitter, began recovering on Saturday after an outage affected over 10,000 users in the U.S., according to Downdetector. By 7:42 p.m. ET, disruption reports had dropped to around 1,041. While Downdetector compiles data from various sources, the actual number of users impacted may differ. The outage comes amid ongoing technical issues at X, which owner Elon Musk recently acknowledged, calling for major operational improvements. Musk, who has pledged to refocus on X, xAI, Tesla, and SpaceX, attributed a similar March outage to a cyberattack. X has not yet commented on the latest incident. Reuters WestJet probes cybersecurity incident affecting app and internal systems . Last week, Canada’s WestJet Airlines launched a probe into a cybersecurity incident that has disrupted access to its mobile app and some internal systems, though flight operations remain unaffected. The airline was working with law enforcement and Transport Canada as of Sunday, to assess the breach and contain its impact. WestJet, Ottawa’s second largest airline, stated that it is prioritizing the protection of sensitive data belonging to both customers and employees but noted it is too early to determine the full scope or cause of the incident. The breach comes amid a rise in cyber threats targeting Canada’s critical infrastructure, following similar incidents earlier this year involving energy providers like Emera and Nova Scotia Power. Wall Street Journal Reuters Infosecurity Magazine Amazon will invest $13 billion in Australia’s data center infrastructure over five years . Amazon has announced a A$20 billion (US$12.97 billion) investment to expand, operate, and maintain its data center infrastructure in Australia from 2025 to 2029, aiming to strengthen the country’s artificial intelligence capabilities. This marks the company’s largest tech investment in Australia and will support new server capacity and generative AI workloads. Amazon is also investing in three solar farms in Victoria and Queensland, committing to purchase over 170 megawatts of capacity. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised the move as a major boost to the economy and a vote of confidence in Australia’s future. This investment aligns with a global trend, as major tech firms like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google ramp up data center expansion to meet rising AI and cloud computing demands. Amazon recently unveiled similar plans in the U.S. and Taiwan, with multibillion-dollar investments in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other regions. Reuters Forbes Wall Street Journal Oil Prices Drop, but Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Many Risks . The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has sparked uncertainty in global energy markets, but oil prices have remained relatively stable so far. Brent crude initially jumped 7% after Israeli strikes but has since fallen to around $74 per barrel, below the 2024 average of $80. Analysts suggest this reflects market skepticism that the conflict will significantly disrupt supply, even as tensions rise in a region responsible for 25 million barrels of oil per day. Still, the situation remains volatile. If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route for a third of global seaborne oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas—prices could soar to $124 per barrel, Deutsche Bank estimates. However, such a move would provoke U.S. military action and hurt Iran’s own exports. More likely scenarios include Iran harassing tankers or encouraging attacks on Iraq’s oil infrastructure. If Israel targets Iran’s energy facilities, the resulting supply shock could push oil to $90 per barrel, though analysts expect prices to eventually normalize as other producers step in. New York Times Why do countries want rare earth elements? Rare earth elements (REEs) are crucial for modern technology, found in devices like smartphones and electric vehicles, primarily due to their role in creating permanent magnets. These magnets are essential for various applications, including renewable energy technologies and defense systems. Despite their name, REEs are relatively common but are primarily sourced from specific regions, with China dominating the market, providing about 70% of the world’s supply. This dependence raises concerns among Western nations about future access, prompting the EU and the US to develop domestic sources and supply chains. Initiatives like the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act aim to increase regional production, while the US seeks to establish a “mine-to-magnet” supply chain by 2027. Additionally, regions like Ukraine and Greenland are being explored for their untapped potential to ensure a more secure supply of these vital materials. Deutsche Welle Companies Warned On Iranian Cyberattacks . As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, cybersecurity experts are warning of a possible surge in Iranian cyberattacks that could reach targets beyond the battlefield, including in the U.S. Iran has long posed a cyber threat, targeting critical infrastructure like the Aliquippa, Pennsylvania water utility in 2023. Although no major attacks have been reported during the current conflict, experts say the risk is rising. Iran, militarily outmatched by Israel, may turn to cyber warfare to inflict damage with broader geographic reach. So far, cyber activity has mainly involved disinformation rather than destructive attacks, but U.S. industry watchdogs have urged sectors like tech and agriculture to brace for possible disruptions. Reports from Google’s Threat Intelligence Group highlight Iran’s use of ransomware, malware, and phishing, especially against Israel. Analysts caution that while Iran often exaggerates its cyber successes for psychological effect, the threat to critical infrastructure—especially in allied nations—remains serious and evolving. Wall Street Journal Cyberattacks against Israel surge 700 percent since the start of the conflict with Iran . Cyberattacks against Israel surged 700 percent since Friday compared with the period before June 12, according to the Radware cybersecurity firm. Researchers have found that malicious network activity has been focused on Israeli infrastructure and likely “stems from cyber retaliation operations by Iranian state actors and pro-Iranian hacker groups.” The cyber campaign consists of DDoS attacks, infiltration attempts targeting critical infrastructure, data theft, and malware distribution operations. Radware also detected increased activity by “threat actors aligned with Iran on public and private Telegram channels.” Researchers anticipate intensified Iran-sponsored cyberattacks against Israeli government websites, financial institutions, and telecommunications, alongside psychological influence campaigns. Jerusalem Post Starlink satellite internet links activated in Iran, bypassing government restrictions . Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications network has been activated in Iran, as other forms of access to the internet have been shut down. Musk confirmed over the weekend that “the beams are on” in Iran even as Tehran imposed internet restrictions on domestic users. A post on X by a political analyst highlighted that the Starlink activation enables the bypassing of government censorship directed by the Iranian communications ministry. Cybernews Jerusalem Post Twin Proba-3 spacecraft create artificial solar eclipse . The Proba-3 mission, launched in December 2024 as a collaboration between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA, successfully created an artificial solar eclipse to study the solar corona, the sun’s outer atmosphere. By maneuvering two spacecraft, Occulter and Coronagraph, 150 meters apart, Proba-3 blocked sunlight with millimeter precision, allowing for unprecedented observations of the corona’s structure, which has perplexed scientists due to its higher temperatures compared to the sun’s surface. The mission aims to gather data on solar phenomena, such as coronal mass ejections, which can impact Earth’s technology. This innovative approach follows the recent Solar Orbiter mission, which provided the first images of the sun’s poles, enhancing our understanding of solar activity and its effects on space weather. Proba-3’s autonomous operation and precision flying mark significant advancements in space exploration technology. Deutsche Welle Review of EU AI Act could remove enforcement provisions following industry lobbying . A shifting political climate and industry lobbying are leading to changes in the European Union’s landmark AI Act, which may result in simplified processes and reduced requirements for businesses. Although the Act was adopted in August of last year, it is only being implemented in stages, with some AI practices addressed immediately and other enforcement provisions entering into effect in 2026 or 2027. The latter could be put on hold, according to Dutch Green legislator Kim van Sparrentak, who helped negotiate the Act. Henna Virkkunen, the European Commission’s tech sovereignty chief, surprised some earlier in June when she referred to a possible pause in rolling out the law. An ongoing Commission review of how to simplify digital rules across the board, which will be issued in December, has provided another opportunity for “targeted” changes to the AI Act. E.U. legislators will question Virkkunen on Tuesday during a meeting of the parliamentary group monitoring the implementation of the AI Act. An Irish liberal representative, Michael McNamara, who will co-chair the meeting, warned that “just to throw everything out, there would be a risk of throwing out the baby with the bathwater.” Politico Europe responds to Nvidia CEO’s call to create ‘sovereign AI’ capabilities . European government and tech leaders reportedly are receptive to the message from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on the urgency of creating “sovereign AI” capabilities on the continent. In meetings across Europe last week, Huang declared that Nvidia plans to invest billions in multiple countries, “but Europe needs to move into AI quickly.” “Sovereign AI” emphasizes that the language, knowledge, history, and culture of each region are different, and nations must develop their own AI footprint. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced last week that Britain will create a $1.35 billion fund to build computing power to allow the country “to be an AI maker and not an AI taker.” At a global tech conference in Paris last week, French President Emmanuel Macron called building AI infrastructure “our fight for sovereignty.” Arthur Mensch, the CEO of France’s Mistral AI startup, told a VivaTech panel discussion, “There’s no reason why Europe shouldn’t have tech champions. This is a gigantic dream.” Mistral has partnered with Nvidia on the construction of a data center that will provide European firms with a domestic alternative to U.S. AI hyperscalers. Pascal Brier, chief innovation officer at Capgemini, a partner of both Nvidia and Mistral, acknowledged that European initiatives are unlikely to meet the scale of U.S. competitors. “Hyperscalers are spending $10 billion to $15 billion per quarter in their infrastructure. Who in Europe can afford that exactly?” he asked. “It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do anything, but we have to be cognizant about the fact that there will always be a gap.” Reuters Leading Chinese tech firms launch talent recruitment drives in tight AI skills market . Baidu, one of China’s leading internet companies, has intensified its talent recruitment efforts with a 60 percent increase in job openings to support its AI R&D initiatives. Baidu’s job offerings include opportunities for specialists in large language model (LLM) algorithms, foundational LLM architecture, machine learning, speech technologies, and AI agents. Meanwhile, Baidu’s rivals such as ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent Holdings have launched recruitment drives of their own, seeking candidates in various AI specialties for full-time positions or internships. These drives occur even as China faces a tight labor market for AI skills. The online headhunting platform, Liepin, estimates in its latest Talent Shortage Index (TSI) that China had an AI skills shortfall of 3.24 as of January, with any figure above one indicating a shortage. Other skills trends were provided by the Zhaopin job search platform, which reported that job postings in China for algorithm engineers jumped 44 percent year on year in the first quarter, while machine-learning specialist postings were up 18 percent. South China Morning Post U.S. presses Vietnam to reduce Chinese components used in export tech products . In the ongoing tariff talks between the U.S. and Vietnam, Washington is urging Hanoi to reduce the use of Chinese technology in devices destined for export to the U.S. Vietnam hosts manufacturing operations that utilize Chinese components in products from Apple, Samsung, Meta, and Google. In response, Vietnam has reportedly held meetings with domestic businesses to increase the use of Vietnamese parts. The goal of this effort is to increase Vietnam’s industrial output while decoupling the country from Chinese-made technology. In 2024, China exported $44 billion of electronics components and computers to Vietnam. The U.S. is also pushing Vietnam to reduce the Chinese practice of labeling products “made in Vietnam” — a ploy to lower duties on China’s exports bound for the U.S. The Vietnamese Ministry of Trade has noted progress in talks with the U.S., although it added that some critical issues remain unresolved. Reuters Energy, tech, finance leaders gather in Washington to discuss AI-related power needs . Leading executives from major oil, tech and power firms, along with financial heavyweights, are meeting in Washington, D.C. to discuss meeting AI’s energy needs. The ENACT event is organized by two UAE companies, XRG and MGX, in collaboration with the Atlantic Council think tank. The meeting’s agenda focuses on both immediate energy needs to 2030 and longer-term decision-making and opportunities in the sector. Tech executives like OpenAI’s global affairs head, Chris Lehane, and Crusoe’s co-founder and CEO, Chase Lochmiller, are expected to participate, along with Constellation Energy’s CEO, Joseph Dominguez, and Emirates Nuclear Energy’s CEO, Mohamed Al Hammadi, among others. The goal of ENACT is to generate practical takeaways, and the session is expected to concentrate on the U.S., which XRG has identified as a priority market. A report is expected to follow soon after the meeting’s conclusion. ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who is also the UAE minister of industry and advanced tech, will host this session of ENACT following an initial meeting in Abu Dhabi in 2024. Al Jaber described ENACT as an effort to “connect the dots between sectors to help drive coordinated solutions” on AI energy needs. Axios Global law enforcement operation shuts down dark web drug marketplace platform . Archetyp Market, a prominent drug marketplace on the dark web, has been shut down by international law enforcement agencies following a coordinated operation involving raids across Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, and Sweden. The alleged administrator of Archetyp, a 30-year-old German national, was arrested at his home in Barcelona. Operating under the pseudonym ASNT, the man ran the platform as part of an organized criminal group trafficking large quantities of narcotics, according to authorities. Assets totaling about $9 million, including luxury vehicles and cryptocurrency, were seized. The seizure of the platform followed years of forensic work to trace financial flows, analyze digital evidence, and map its architecture. The marketplace homepage now bears a seizure notice along with a warning video of the police operation. Jean-Philippe Lecouffe, Europol’s deputy executive director of operations, said the joint law enforcement operation severed “a major supply line for some of the world’s most dangerous substances.” BleepingComputer CyberScoop . Archetyp Market, a prominent drug marketplace on the dark web, has been shut down by international law enforcement agencies following a coordinated operation involving raids across Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, and Sweden. The alleged administrator of Archetyp, a 30-year-old German national, was arrested at his home in Barcelona. Operating under the pseudonym ASNT, the man ran the platform as part of an organized criminal group trafficking large quantities of narcotics, according to authorities. Assets totaling about $9 million, including luxury vehicles and cryptocurrency, were seized. The seizure of the platform followed years of forensic work to trace financial flows, analyze digital evidence, and map its architecture. The marketplace homepage now bears a seizure notice along with a warning video of the police operation. Jean-Philippe Lecouffe, Europol’s deputy executive director of operations, said the joint law enforcement operation severed “a major supply line for some of the world’s most dangerous substances.” The Record

It has been one week since a calamitous Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine ignited one of the most tumultuous periods in U.S.-Ukrainian relations since the 2022 Russian invasion. Overnight, Russia conducted one of its largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on March 6, targeting energy infrastructure. Senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials now plan to meet in Saudi Arabia next week.

Trump has made the signing of a so-called “Minerals Agreement” between the United States and Ukraine a precondition for subsequent efforts to end Russia’s war. But the agreement, described by one expert as “extortion,” goes well beyond minerals.

The deal would cut open Ukraine’s natural resource veins, and could leave the majority of its key resources — including fossil fuels — under Russian control. Fifty percent of Ukraine’s future earnings from its remaining natural resource wealth would go into a new fund under U.S. direction into which the United States would contribute nothing. The deal could benefit American and other Western companies but would provide few economic and no security guarantees to Ukraine.

It’s a steep price to pay for peace, but Ukraine may be forced to accept the deal given how closely aligned the Trump regime has become with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump is also laying the groundwork for the full reentry of Russia into the global economy, opening the door to a return of U.S. fossil fuel giants into one of the largest pools of oil and gas in the world.

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Svitlana Romanko remembers the exact moment that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. At 5:00 a.m. on February 24, 2022, the bombs started to fall. She saw the first explosion and ran out onto her balcony in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine. As she stood there watching the devastation unfold, she knew she had little time to react. An environmental lawyer and leading international climate campaigner, Romanko already knew what needed to be done.. She reached out to friends; many of whom were also watching the bombs explode above their heads. Editor’s picks

“Everyone felt this, they knew, that if we want to stop Russia, we must get rid of fossil fuels,” Romanko tells me, the sense of urgency and purpose from that moment still clear in her voice three years later almost to the day when I reach her by phone in Ukraine. “We started organizing together to make a public call which was to end the global fossil fuel addiction that feeds Putin’s war machine.”

People protest in Berlin’s government district against the Russian War on Ukraine, following a call by the climate protection initiative Fridays for Future. Jan Scheunert/Sipa USA/AP

The call was quickly echoed and acted upon by government leaders and advocates throughout the world. Within a week, President Joe Biden announced a U.S. ban on imports of all Russian fossil fuels and stressed the urgency of a U.S. transition to clean energy. “That’ll mean tyrants like Putin won’t be able to use fossil fuels as weapons against other nations,” Biden said. It was the first step in an extensive global sanctions regime across governments. “We are determined to limit Putin’s capacity to finance his atrocious war,” wrote Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, adding, the European Union “must get rid of its dependency on fossil fuels.”

Trump has set the U.S. on a radically different path, seeking to isolate Ukraine while working to end what he has called “the war on fossil fuels.”

Oval Office Shakedown

Trump’s cringe-inducing shakedown of Zelensky in the Oval Office on February 28 was the kind of made-for-TV spectacle for which Trump lives. The entire meeting had the markings of a set-up, designed to denigrate and weaken Zelensky and embolden Putin. Related Content

Zelensky had ostensibly been brought to Washington to sign what has been dubbed “the Minerals Agreement,” though the actual title is the “Bilateral Agreement Establishing Terms and Conditions for a Reconstruction Investment Fund.” A draft of the agreement was published by the Kyiv Independent newspaper on February 26. The fund is to be financed with future revenues from Ukraine’s state-owned natural resources and infrastructure, including oil, gas, coal, and minerals. After a press conference in the Oval Office, the two leaders were supposed to oversee the signing of the agreement, which Trump calls “a peace deal.” No deal was signed.

In the weeks leading up to the meeting, it seemed that Trump and members of his administration were methodically checking off a Putin wish list for ending the war. Trump went so far as to assert that Ukraine may or may not become a part of Russia “someday.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a meeting with Russia in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a peace deal; Ukraine was not invited. Attorney General Pam Bondi disbanded a task force aimed at seizing Russian oligarchs’ assets and ordered a halt to efforts to combat secret foreign influence campaigns in U.S. politics.

The U.S. had negotiated drafts of the “Minerals Agreement” to meet some of the terms requested by Ukraine, but it still failed to include Zelensky’s primary demand: a security guarantee from the U.S. to protect against future Russian aggression. From the outset of the Oval Office meeting, Trump brushed aside such requests, making clear that a security deal was off the table. “You don’t have the cards,” he said to Zelensky, “You are either going to make a deal, or we’re out.”

Following the meeting, the White House plowed ahead with its Putin wish list, announcing a pause in U.S. military aid to Ukraine, a halt on sharing military intelligence with Ukraine, and the initiation of steps to lift U.S. sanctions against Russia. Members of the administration are also reportedly backing negotiations with Russia to restart the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — the crown jewel of Russian energy.

The “Minerals Agreement”

Since the 2022 Russian invasion, Zelensky has tried to attract U.S. and other foreign investors to Ukraine in exchange for military and other financial commitments. He (remotely) rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange in 2022, as part of an “Advantage Ukraine” campaign highlighting 10 different sectors open for investment, including natural resources. The campaign cites “abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, and mercury,” as well as agriculture, STEM, pharmaceuticals, and woodworking.

“This agreement was initially Zelensky’s idea,” says Maria Popova, an Associate Professor of Political Science at McGill University and author of Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories, Diverging States, explaining that he thought that it would give Trump “a reason to have a stake in Ukraine sovereignty and an interest in keeping Ukraine independent from Russia and holding Russia at bay.”

With support from the global community, Ukraine has made significant renewable energy progress in recent years to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and enhance energy security, adopting a National Energy and Climate Plan and National Renewable Energy Action Plan in 2024. Part of this plan is the development of its critical minerals used in the production of renewable energy technology, including batteries for energy storage and solar panels.

Today, Ukraine produces critical minerals such as titanium (used in construction, airplanes, and other things) and is one of the world’s leading producers of graphite (used in steel manufacturing and electric motors). It has large potential reserves of lithium (used in batteries, including electric vehicles), uranium (used in nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons), and may have substantial reserves of “rare earth minerals” — a group of more than a dozen metals used in many high-tech sectors, including in solar panels and electronics. There is, however, very limited data on these elements in Ukraine and it has not produced any to date.

Ukraine also has a century-long history of extensive fossil fuel operations, as it possesses substantial reserves of oil, gas, and coal. Prior to the 2022 invasion, Ukraine transited more gas than any other nation in the world, via an expansive pipeline network from Russia. After Russia, it has Europe’s largest gas storage capacity.

In 2012, under the Moscow-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych, ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell planned to develop Ukraine’s deepwater offshore gas fields in the Black Sea. The following year, Chevron and Shell signed contracts valued at $10 billion a piece to develop Ukraine’s onshore gas fracking fields. After Yanukovych’s ouster, Chevron exited Ukraine, reportedly motivated by a new administration’s “unfriendly tax environment.”

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, much of the rest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, and much of Ukraine’s industrial heartland in the eastern Donbas region — areas that also correspond with the bulk of Ukraine’s fossil fuels, ports, and many other natural resource deposits. Exxon and Shell soon exited Ukraine, too. With Russia’s 2022 invasion, Putin captured even more vital natural resources, including a large swath of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits.

The U.S.-Ukraine “Minerals Agreement” may have begun with a focus on rare earth minerals, but that is not where it ended. It covers all of Ukraine’s natural resources and related infrastructure, and requires that half of all of Ukraine’s revenues from the “future monetization” of these resources be put into a Reconstruction Investment Fund jointly managed by the U.S. and Ukraine. The U.S. has made no financial obligation to the fund, which Trump views as “payback” for money the U.S. has already spent on Ukraine.

The U.S. could end up exercising a great deal of sway over the fund. The U.S. government holds “the maximum percentage of ownership of the fund’s equity and financial interests,” and “the decision-making authority” of the U.S. government “will be to the extent permissible under applicable United States laws” — though it’s not clear what level of control that means. The fund will also reinvest an undetermined percentage of its revenues in Ukraine to attract further investment.

Under the agreement, Ukraine’s natural resource assets are expansively defined as “deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure). For the avoidance of doubt, such future sources of revenues do not include the current sources of revenues which are already part of the general budget revenues of Ukraine.” This final clarification is likely intended to protect Ukraine’s existing natural resource operations from the fund.

The description of the purpose of the fund is even broader in its scope. The fund is described as supporting “investments to increase the development, processing and monetization of all public and private Ukrainian assets including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises as may be further described in the fund agreement.” The governments intend “that the investment process will lead to opportunities for distribution of additional funds and greater reinvestment, to ensure the sufficient supply of capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine as set out in the fund agreement.”

There is no U.S. security guarantee. Instead, it says the U.S. government “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.” Detailed terms will be worked out by representatives of the two governments as part of the fund agreement, which will require ratification by the Ukrainian Parliament.

Reconstruction money is traditionally provided as a grant or a loan. There has never been an agreement like this before, potentially ceding unprecedented control over Ukraine’s economy and vital natural resources to the Trump administration and by proxy to Putin. While a great deal about the agreement remains unclear, there’s enough for Samantha Gross, Director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution, to describe the agreement as “extortionist.”

“We are taking from the Ukrainians without intending to give them anything back,” she says, shock filling her voice. “If we’re not willing to give them a security guarantee, it just seems crazy,” Gross tells me. “If we want to invest in Ukraine, then we ought to do this contract by contract, like you would normally when you invest in a country.”

Popova, of McGill University. says that Zelensky “probably didn’t expect the situation that we have right now, which is that it seems that the Trump administration thinks that they can have their cake and eat it too — they can restore and reset friendly relationships with Russia and at the same time take advantage of investing in Ukraine.”

“If the U.S. holds majority control or key decision-making power, it could effectively dictate Ukraine’s resource policies,” warns Romanko, the Ukrainian environmental lawyer. She shares a long detailed list of concerns with the agreement prepared by Razom We Stand, an organization of which she is the founder and director.

Romanko is eager for Ukraine to begin critical raw minerals development as part of an effort to build a renewable energy economy, but only if it does so sustainably, ethically, fossil-free, and in a way that ensures local benefit, she explains. Otherwise, Ukraine risks becoming “a raw material colony for the West.” Yet the agreement contains no such provisions, including no environmental or other protections. It fails to mention renewable energy development, and instead doubles down on fossil fuels, threatening hard-fought victories.

“Ukraine’s future should be built on fair trade, environmental protection, and a just transition [from fossil fuels] for workers and communities — not the neocolonial plundering of our natural resources,” Romanko writes.

There are other problems with the agreement. A great deal of Ukraine’s natural resources, including fossil fuels and minerals, are in territory controlled and occupied by Russia. The Trump administration has indicated that Ukraine should not expect to get all of its land back (if any) and Russia continues to explicitly reject making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any U.S., European, or Ukrainian peace proposals. At the Oval Office press conference, CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins asked Trump if he would direct Putin to withdraw his forces from these resource areas. Zelensky interjected, saying, “Very good question, thank you so much.”

Trump hedged, saying, “I’ll study that, I’ll see.” Collins pressed on, asking who would protect the American assets — “Ukrainian, European, or U.S. forces?” — particularly if “Russia tries to invade or there is Russian aggression in those spots?” Trump replied that the “agreement will protect them,” adding, “that’s not going to happen and if that were going to happen, I wouldn’t make a deal.” Then he promptly turned his ire from Zelensky to Collins, saying, instead of “asking me these ridiculous questions, focus on surviving, because CNN’s got such low ratings I don’t think they’re going to survive.”

The vagueness of the agreement leaves a number of critical looming questions. The deal protects Ukraine’s “current sources of revenues” and operations that “are already part of the general budget revenues of Ukraine.” But what happens when Ukraine seeks to restart natural resource assets or infrastructure idled during the war or sign new contracts? Would the U.S have a hand in these negotiations, and would their profits go into the Reconstruction Investment Fund? This could open the door to the U.S. and even Russia not only exercising decision-making and profiting off Ukraine’s future natural resource development, but also some of its most valuable existing assets — from gas pipelines to refineries.

Romanko believes that such an outcome is not only possible, but intentional: “I have no doubt that a hidden agenda is getting access and decision-making rights to gas and oil pipelines, especially gas that’s so critical given that the European market is so important for Russia and has always been.” This is “really threatening to everything we’ve done so far” to weaken Russia’s war-fighting ability and influence, including “getting the full ban on Russian oil and gas to the European Union,” she adds.

Gross is more skeptical about the potential reach of agreement, but warns, “I think the thing Putin wants out of this deal is he either wants to own Ukraine or he wants it absolutely neutered.”

Pipelines Run Through It

Fossil fuels are the lifeblood of the Russian economy and the basis of Putin’s power. They have long dominated Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Putin’s first goal in Ukraine is to “eliminate our nation, our culture, our state, and our territorial integrity,” Romanko tells me. Putin is not planning on stopping with Ukraine, but only when he’s restored “his Great Russia from one ocean to the other ocean,” she emphasizes.

His second goal in Ukraine is to secure the free flow of Russia’s fossil fuels. The goals are interwoven. Russia needs “enough fossil fuel money to pay for a military buildup and invading ambitions,” to maintain Putin’s hold on power, and to deny the power of fossil fuels to Ukraine (or better yet, to control them), she explains.

Before the 2022 Russian invasion, Ukraine maintained the key role in delivering Russian gas to European markets via pipelines dating back to the Soviet era. In 2020, the EU received about 40 percent of its natural gas imports from Russia. The government of Ukraine owns the pipelines, and Russia pays Ukraine transit fees, which have been a substantial source of revenue and conflict. Russia has routinely reduced the fee it pays Ukraine and cut gas supply with devastating impacts on Ukraine and nations across Europe.

On January 1, 2025, the contract between Russia and Ukraine for the pipeline expired. Ukraine now faces a loss of some $800 million in annual transit fees from Russia, while the Russian company, Gazprom, will lose close to $5 billion in gas sales, according to Reuters. If the countries negotiate a new contract for this crucial pipeline, there is concern that it could potentially fall under the terms of the U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Agreement.

Nord Stream 2 — It’s Alive!

Russia has sought for decades to either wrest greater control of its pipelines through Ukraine, or bypass Ukraine through the construction of several alternative gas pipelines, the most significant of which is Nord Stream 2. The long-stalled project may now be revived as part of Trump’s economic negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

In 2015, the Russian state-owned oil and gas company Gazprom partnered with Shell and other companies to build the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany. It has enough capacity to cut Ukraine almost entirely out of Russia’s gas exports. The pipeline quickly became one of the most contentious energy projects in history playing out against the backdrop of Russia’s buildup to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Russia ultimately wielding fossil fuels as a weapon.

Construction of the pipeline was completed in September 2021, but amid global pressure to constrain Russian aggression in Ukraine and the fierce global backlash against the pipeline, German regulators did not issue the final permit. Russia retaliated, restricting gas supplies to Europe by 25 percent in October and December, in order to force Germany’s hand. Germany did not relent.

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. In March through June 2022, Russia cut gas supplies to five EU member states, and in Mid-June, it cut gas supplies to Europe by 60 percent. In September 2022, in an act of sabotage, three underwater explosions hit Nord Stream 2 and its parent pipeline, Nord Stream 1, leaving only one of the four gas links in the network intact to this day.

Across the world, countries sought to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy. “The biggest legacy of the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be that it accelerates the end of the fossil fuel era,” the International Energy Agency optimistically remarked last year, citing among other policies implemented across the world, President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.

Trump and Putin have a very different agenda.

Prominent Trump administration figures are aware of an initiative led by a close friend of Putin to bring in U.S. investors to revive Nord Stream 2, “a once unthinkable move that shows the breadth of Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Moscow,” reports the Financial Times. They view the effort “as part of the push to rebuild relations with Moscow and broker an end to the war in Ukraine.” The German tabloid Bild reports that Trump’s special envoy Richard Grenell made multiple unofficial visits to the headquarters of Nord Stream 2 AG (the pipeline’s Swiss-based parent company) as part of the effort. (Grenell denies this.)

According to the Financial Times, a U.S.-led consortium of investors has drawn up the outlines of a post-sanctions deal with Gazprom. Nord Stream 2 AG received a stay on bankruptcy proceedings in January, and the Danish Energy Agency granted a permit to Nord Stream 2 AG to carry out work to preserve the damaged pipeline. Some of Trump’s team now reportedly see the pipeline “as a strategic asset that can be leveraged in the Ukraine peace talks.”

Opening Russia Sanctions — All Hail Fossil Fuels

On February 18, the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia held a meeting about the future of the war in Ukraine without Ukraine. Maybe that should have been enough of a clue about what this whole mess is really all about.

Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff (left), Secretary of State Marco Rubio (second left), and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (third left) meet with top Saudi and Russian officials in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Feb. 18, 2025. Evelyn Hockstein/Pool Photo/AP

Combined, these three nations alone produce nearly half of the world’s daily supply of oil, and the U.S. and Russia produce 35 percent of its methane gas. Saudi Arabia has the world’s second largest reserves of oil, while Russia has the largest gas reserves. There is very little that could undercut the individual power and influence of Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman more than a world turned aggressively against fossil fuels.

Trump has built up close ties to Saudi Arabia and Russia both in and out of office, bringing the United States firmly into an alliance with the world’s most dominant fossil fuel autocracies. He’s implemented a radical agenda to bolster U.S. commitments to fossil fuels and undermine the global commitment to the green energy transition.

Following Trump’s conversation with Putin on February 12, Secretary Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov laid the groundwork for “historic economic and investment opportunities” resulting from “the end to the conflict in Ukraine,” according to the State Department. Ahead of the talks, Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev told reporters that the return of oil companies to Russia is inevitable.

On March 3, the White House directed the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for U.S. officials to discuss with Russian representatives, according to Reuters.

As a result of sanctions and the aggressive efforts by many nations to reduce demand for fossil fuels, particularly from Russia, Russia’s total revenue from all fossil fuel exports in 2024 were about half of those from 2022. Russia still produces and exports large amounts of fossil fuels — shifting much of its market to China and India — but is receiving far less money in return. With 40 percent of Russia’s federal budget from oil and gas prior to the war, the toll on the economy has been significant.

Public opinion, combined with sanctions, largely shut U.S. and other Western oil companies out of Russia and its vast oil and gas reserves. One boon of the rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia will be to Big Oil’s bottom line. ExxonMobil may be the largest beneficiary from reentry into Russia, and the company most in need of a return. It retains some of its largest Russian assets today. The company was forced to abandon its stake in the Russian Arctic offshore Sakhalin-1 project after sanctions hit, yet Moscow has twice extended the deadline for the sale, now pushing it to 2026. Trending Stories Lorde Is Brilliantly Reborn on ‘Virgin’ Trump and Hegseth Are Melting Down Over Leaked Iran Strike Intel Trump Admin Plans to Re-Deport Kilmar Abrego Garcia as Criminal Case Falters Liver King Will Undergo Mental Health Evaluation, Faces Restraining Order After Joe Rogan Arrest

Rex Tillerson, the CEO of ExxonMobil and later Secretary of State in Trump’s first administration, carefully built up a close relationship with Putin, ultimately establishing 10 joint ventures between Exxon and Russia’s state-controlled oil company, Rosneft, by 2013. In 2014, “Russia was going to be Exxon’s next mega-area. And the list of mega-areas in the world is very short,” reported the Financial Times. As a result of these deals, Exxon Mobil’s 63.7 million-acre Russian holdings were nearly five times larger than its second-largest holdings — its 14 million acres in the United States. With the imposition of sanctions in 2014, Exxon was largely shut out of these operations, and then fully shut out as result of the 2022 invasion.

Romanko is eager for peace in Ukraine, and she knows there will be costs. But she says, “when fossil fuels — not just metaphorically, but literally — try to eliminate you from the planet, not just by climate destruction, but a very brutal and violent torturing way, people know that we must get rid of fossil fuels.”

What we know about US-Ukraine minerals deal

1 May 2025 Share Save Ian Aikman & João da Silva BBC News Share Save

Reuters Relations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump appeared to improve during a recent meeting at the Vatican

Washington and Kyiv have signed a long-awaited deal involving Ukraine’s natural resources, after months of contentious negotiations. Details are still emerging about the agreement, but both sides have confirmed that it sets up an investment fund to search for minerals, and set outs how revenues would be split. In a statement, the US said the agreement “signals to Russia” that the Trump administration is “committed to a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous” Ukraine. It comes just over two months after a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Zelensky at the White House turned into a public shouting match sparking fear that the US might withdraw its support for Ukraine.

What we know about the deal

Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko flew to Washington on Wednesday after an apparent breakthrough in negotiations to sign the deal with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. After joining Bessent at a signing ceremony, Svyrydenko listed its provisions on social media. Posting on X, she said the deal establishes a reconstruction investment fund to help attract Western investment in Ukrainian projects in minerals, oil and gas. She says the resources will remain the property of Ukraine, and Kyiv will choose where to do the extracting. The partnership will be equal, on a 50/50 basis, she says, adding that the agreement includes no debt obligation to the US. The US will play a role in helping to attract investment and technology to the projects in Ukraine. As part of the deal, the US will contribute new assistance to Kyiv, which may include, for example, air defence systems. She says the fund’s income and contributions will not be taxed by either country. Svyrydenko says the deal must still be ratified by Ukrainian lawmakers.

The agreement recognises the contributions that Ukraine has made to global security, she writes, thanking everyone who worked on brokering it. It is unclear if the deal includes an explicit security guarantee from the US, something Zelensky has pushed hard for throughout negotiations. A US Treasury Department statement said: “No state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.” Trump, for his part, said the deal represents payback for the money the US has spent on the war so far. “Biden handed them $350bn,” Trump said in a phone call in to a town hall on the NewsNation network. He went on to add: “We made a deal where we get much more in theory than the $350bn.” BBC Verify: How much has the US given to Ukraine? Trump has made the claim that the US has spent around $350 billion (£263 billion) on Ukraine aid on numerous occasions. But a BBC Verify analysis found the actual amount is much lower. Asked if the US’s presence in Ukraine might inhibit Russia’s movement in the region, he said “it could”.

What minerals does Ukraine have?

Kyiv estimates that about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials” are in Ukraine. This includes some 19 million tonnes of proven reserves of graphite, which the Ukrainian Geological Survey state agency says makes the nation “one of the top five leading countries” for the supply of the mineral. Graphite is used to make batteries for electric vehicles. Ukraine also has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. It says it has substantial amounts of the world’s rare earth metals – a group of 17 elements that are used to produce weapons, wind turbines, electronics and other products vital in the modern world – but these claims are disputed. Also, some of the country’s mineral deposits have been seized by Russia. According to Svyrydenko, resources worth $350bn (£277bn) remain in occupied territories today. There are warnings too that a deal allowing the US access to Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth cannot happen unless the country addresses its problem with unexploded mines. A quarter of Ukraine’s land mass is estimated to be contaminated with landmines, mainly concentrated in the war-torn east of the country. Another issue is it will be some time before anyone sees any material benefits from the deal. “These resources aren’t in a port or warehouse; they must be developed,” Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former minister and head of Kyiv school of economics, told the BBC. What minerals does Ukraine have?

How has Russia reacted?

Donald Trump’s claim that the mineral deal he hopes to sign with Ukraine might be worth a trillion dollars has been called into question due to a US Geological Survey stating that Ukraine ‘isn’t known to hold any reserves of main rare earths’.

The Ukrainian Geological Survey last year claimed that the war-torn country had reserves of rare minerals – but US scientists made no mention of such sought-after earths in their own US Geological Survey four years ago.

‘What Ukraine has is scorched earth; what it doesn’t have is rare earths,’ Bloomberg’s regional expert Javier Blas said.

Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones, missile systems, and other electronics. There are no viable substitutes.

According to the Institute of Geology, Ukraine possesses rare earth elements such as lanthanum and cerium, used in TVs and lighting; neodymium, used in wind turbines and EV batteries; and erbium and yttrium, whose applications range from nuclear power to lasers.

The EU-funded research also indicates that Ukraine has scandium reserves, but detailed data are classified.

Zelenskiy said in an interview earlier this month that Russia had occupied about half of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits.

Mining analysts and economists say that Ukraine has no commercial operational rare earth mines, and projects to extract minerals could take years to develop and require large up-front investment.

This would mean that Trump’s presidency would likely be over before he could see the fruit of the minerals deal.

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Bucket-wheel excavators mine rare earth materials on Ukrainian soil on February 25, 2025 in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine

Trump and Zelensky are pictured during a meeting in Paris in December 2024

Zelensky has praised the deal but simultaneously hit the brakes on the agreement as he said today: ‘This is just a start, a framework, it can be a big success. The success will depend on our conversation with President Trump.’

But the deal may not be the colonial-style asset grab it appears to be at first, as Ukraine last mapped its rare earth metals decades ago, mostly between the 1960s and 1980s when it was still part of the Soviet Union.

The former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey even admitted that there was no modern assessment of rare earth reserves in Ukraine and that existing mapping had relied on old exploration methods, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

And even the deposits visible on this mapping would be difficult to develop as some require either advanced technology and a consistent energy grid for extraction or are behind the frontline on Russian-occupied territory, according to industry experts who spoke to S&P Global.

‘Unfortunately, there is no modern assessment’ of rare earth reserves in Ukraine, Roman Opimakh, former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, told Commodity Insights. ‘And there is still restriction to make this information public.’

There are six rare earth reserves in Ukraine, but only the Novopoltavske field in the Zaporizhzhia region reportedly appears to be a viable option.

A $300 million investment would be needed to extract the rare earth and phosphate deposit there, according to ‘Ukraine: Mining Investment Opportunities,’ a report by the Ukrainian Geological Survey and the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine.

But the field presents ‘relatively difficult’ hydrogeological and mining conditions, which only China, the US and Russia would have the proven capacity to ‘commercially recover’ rare earth elements from, Federico Gay, a principal lithium analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told S&P.

China, with whom Trump has threatened a trade war, is the world’s largest producer of rare earths and many other critical minerals.

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The US Geological Survey considers 50 minerals to be critical, including several types of rare earths, nickel and lithium. Critical minerals are essential for industries such as defence, high-tech appliances, aerospace and green energy.

Ukraine has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical, according to Economy Ministry data. This includes industrial and construction materials, ferroalloy, precious and non-ferrous metals, and some rare earth elements.

Ukraine also has significant reserves of coal; however, most of these are now under the control of Russia in occupied territory. Zelenskiy also said that Ukraine had Europe’s largest reserves of titanium and uranium.

According to the World Economic Forum, Ukraine is also a key potential supplier of lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, zirconium, graphite, apatite, fluorite and nickel.

The State Geological Service said Ukraine has one of Europe’s largest confirmed reserves, estimated at 500,000 metric tons, of lithium – vital for batteries, ceramics, and glass.

Titanium reserves are mostly located in northwestern and central Ukraine, while lithium is in the centre, east and southeast.

Ukraine’s reserves of graphite, a key component in electric vehicle batteries and nuclear reactors, represent 20 per cent of global resources. The deposits are in the centre and west.

Oleksiy Sobolev, first deputy economy minister, said in January that the government was working on deals with Western allies including the United States, Britain, France and Italy on projects related to exploiting critical materials.

Zelensky and Trump pictured during their meeting in the Trump Tower in New York in September

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (pictured) has said a framework economic deal with the United States is ready – but security guarantees that Kyiv views as vital remain to be decided

He said he expects to have a wide-ranging substantive conversation with US President Donald Trump (pictured) during a visit to Washington. ‘I want to coordinate with the US,’ Zelensky said

The government estimates the sector’s total investment potential at about $12-15 billion by 2033.

The State Geological Service said the government was preparing about 100 sites to be jointly licensed and developed but provided no further details.

Although Ukraine has a highly qualified and relatively inexpensive labour force and developed infrastructure, investors highlight a number of barriers to investment.

These include inefficient and complex regulatory processes as well as difficulty accessing geological data and obtaining land plots.

Such projects would take years to develop and require considerable up-front investment, they said.

As the US and Ukraine are edging closer to agreeing on a minerals deal, there is confusion as to whether Zelensky will be visiting Washington to meet Trump on Friday.

The Ukrainian said he would ‘like to have this visit very much’, but a White House official raised doubts about whether an invitation to meet Trump would make sense given Zelensky’s comments that a minerals deal is not complete.

‘If the Ukrainian leader says the deal isn’t finalized, I don’t see why an invitation would make sense,’ the official told Reuters.

An aerial view of an ilmenite open pit mine in a canyon in the central region of Kirovohrad, Ukraine on February 12

‘There’s an expectation that his coming is to recognize a final position (on the minerals deal) and he is not at a final position in his own words in this new wording.’

Trump repeatedly said that Ukraine needed to repay the United States for the billions it received in military aid under the Biden administration and asked for access to the rare mineral deposits in the country.

The draft of the deal does not include his contentious proposal to give the US £395billion worth of profits from Ukraine’s rare earth minerals as compensation for its wartime assistance, according to a Kyiv official speaking on condition of anonymity.

Instead, it indicates that the US and Ukraine should develop state-owned resources in the war-torn country like minerals, oil, and gas together with revenues diverted to a joint US-Ukrainian fund.

The US ‘would own the maximum financial interest in the fund allowed under American law, though not necessarily all’, according to the New York Times.

One official said the deal had better terms of investments and another one said that Kyiv secured favorable amendments and viewed the outcome as ‘positive.’