Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows price increases accelerated in May
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Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows price increases accelerated in May
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed price increases accelerated in May. The release comes as investors have been closely watching data releases for signs of when, or if, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The data’s release comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of House lawmakers, stressing that the central bank is “well-positioned to wait” before moving interest rates. After Friday’s release, markets were pricing in a 22.7% chance of a rate cut at its next meeting in late July, up from a 14.5% chance seen last week.
The “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 2.7% on an annual basis, above the 2.6% economists had expected and higher than the 2.6% seen in April. The April reading was revised higher to 2.6% from an originally reported 2.5% increase.
Core prices rose 0.2% in May from the prior month, above the 0.1% economists had expected, which would have been in line with April’s increase.
On a yearly basis, overall PCE increased by 2.3%, above the 2.2% increase from the month prior.
Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation
Elsewhere in the release, data showed signs of slowing economic growth activity. Real personal spending, which adjusts for inflation, decreased 0.3% in May after increasing 0.1% in April. Meanwhile, personal income fell 0.4% in May, well below the 0.7% increase seen in April and the 0.3% increase economists had expected.
“The trend in parts of discretionary spending has weakened, and we expect a further slowdown in the coming months as tariffs begin to weigh on real disposable incomes,” Oxford Economics deputy chief US economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note to clients.
The data’s release comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of House lawmakers, stressing that the central bank is “well-positioned to wait” before moving interest rates.
But debate over when the central bank will cut interest rates has been heating up. After Friday’s release, markets were pricing in a 22.7% chance the central bank cuts interest rates at its next meeting in late July, up from a 14.5% chance seen last week, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Odds of a cut by the end of September had also surged, with markets now pricing in a 92% chance the central bank will have lowered rates by then, up from a 70% chance seen just a week ago.
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a hearing of the House Committee on Financial Services on Capitol Hill on June 24. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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