ING Groep NV expects its global corporate finance revenue to increase by 40% in 2025 as it anticipates a recovery in dealmaking and equity capital markets (ECM) activity across key sectors.

While tariff announcements and geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty and slowed down recent activity, the year started strong, with a healthy pipeline of deals, active companies and private equity investors keen to exit long-held assets, Rob van Veldhuizen, global head of corporate finance at ING said during a roundtable discussion June 25.

“I’m quite optimistic about the second half [of the year] from an M&A and from an ECM perspective,” Van Veldhuizen said.

Sector-driven recovery

While April’s US trade policy shift changed market expectations for a stronger recovery in M&A and ECM, dealmaking and issuance are still happening across technology, media and telecommunications (TMT), digital infrastructure, commodities, food and agriculture, and finance, sectors which ING invests in, he said. Private equity dry powder — money available to be deployed — hit a record high of over $2.5 trillion globally, with many firms exploring both M&A and initial public offerings (IPO) as exit routes for portfolio companies, Van Veldhuizen said.

Markets have started to recover from an initial tariff announcement-induced slowdown, with companies lining up for potential M&A or ECM transactions after the summer, as the date that could provide more clarity on US trade policy is also drawing near, he said.

Most of the higher tariffs announced in April were put on a 90-day pause until July 9. The White House said June 26 that US President Donald Trump could extend the deadline as trade deal negotiations with various countries are ongoing, CNBC reported. White House Council of Economic Advisers chairman Stephen Miran told Yahoo Finance on June 26 that countries that negotiate “in good faith” are likely to get deadline extensions.

Growth plan pays off

ING, which set out targets to grow its investment banking business 18 months ago, has hired roughly 23 senior bankers across financial institutions, TMT, commodities, food and agriculture, energy, renewables, infrastructure and healthcare, ING’s main sectors of focus, Van Veldhuizen said. The bank also strengthened the dedicated private equity advisory team within corporate finance, the executive said.

These efforts are bearing fruit as ING’s corporate finance business maintained revenue at a stable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% for the period 2022 and 2024, despite the drop-off in activity in recent years.

ING aims to expand income in its wholesale banking operations through growth in its capital markets and advisory (CMA) business, which incorporates the corporate finance division. ING wants to raise the proportion of nonlending revenue in wholesale banking to about 67% over the long term from roughly 50% in 2023. Nonlending revenue includes that generated from the group’s financial markets, CMA and transaction services operations. This would help the group grow its annual fee income by €1 billion by the end of 2027, the group said during its Capital Markets Day in June 2024.

In 2024, ING’s overall wholesale banking revenue edged down 1% year over year to €6.98 billion, with financial markets recording the strongest growth within the business of 11% year over year. The financial markets revenue increase was primarily driven by increased capital markets issuance and stronger performance in global securities finance products, ING said in its 2024 annual report. In the first quarter of 2025, the group’s wholesale banking revenue rose 0.5% on the year, with financial markets growing 8.4%. The group does not report CMA revenue separately.

ING’s wholesale banking revenues are projected to decline year on year in 2025 and rebound in the following two years, Visible Alpha consensus estimates data shows. Financial market revenues are set to follow a similar trend, the data shows.