AAA projects 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Independence Day holiday period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6.

This year’s domestic travel forecast is an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year and 7 million more than in 2019. AAA’s Independence Day forecast includes two weekends instead of one to better reflect the flow of holiday travelers.

“We’ve been seeing record-breaking travel numbers consistently over the past year and the July 4th holiday is no exception,” said Jim Garrity, director of public affairs, AAA East Central. “The summer months are the most popular time for those memory-making trips with family and friends, and AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week.”

Independence Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By Car: AAA projects 61.6 million people will travel by car, a 2.2% increase over last year, and the highest volume on record. This Independence Day holiday period is expected to see an additional 1.3 million road travelers compared to 2024. AAA recommends getting routine vehicle maintenance ahead of your trip and packing an emergency kit. Last July 4th week, AAA responded to nearly 700,000 emergency roadside assistance calls for issues like dead batteries and flat tires, plus people locking themselves out of their car or running out of gas.

Drivers are getting a big break at the pump with summer gas prices the lowest they’ve been since 2021. This year, the price of crude oil has kept gas prices on the lower side, and drivers are paying about 40 cents less a gallon than they were this time last year. Weather is the wild card. The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season. Storms along the Gulf Coast can affect oil refineries and disrupt fuel deliveries, leading to a temporary increase in gas prices.

For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Thursday, July 3rd is expected to be the busiest day to pick up vehicles. Some of the top destinations based on advanced bookings are also on AAA’s list of most popular places to visit over July 4th: Orlando, Denver, Boston, Oahu, and Seattle. Hertz says most drivers are looking to rent SUVs and midsize sedans.

By Air: The number of people traveling by air is also projected to set a new record. AAA expects 5.84 million travelers will fly to their destinations; that’s 8% of all Independence Day travelers. This year’s projection is a 1.4% increase over the previous record set last Independence Day week of 5.76 million air travelers.

According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their July 4th trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $810, 4% more expensive than last year. When booking last-minute flights for summer trips, consider flying on weekdays like Tuesdays or Wednesdays for the best deals.

By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is expected to grow by 7.4% over last year. AAA projects 4.78 million people will travel by bus, train, or cruise. This year’s number is just shy of the 2019 record of 4.79 million. Cruising is driving the popularity of this category, particularly this time of year, when Alaska cruise season is in full swing.

AAA’s Top Independence Day Destinations

The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the Independence Day travel period. Cruises, beaches, and fireworks are the main motivators for travelers heading to these cities. Alaska cruises are in peak season, Florida and Hawaii are in high demand for their resorts and attractions, and New York and Boston host two of the most popular fireworks shows in the nation. Internationally, Vancouver tops the list followed by Europe’s most in-demand cities during the summer.

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Wednesday, July 2, and Sunday, July 6 to be the busiest days on the road. Afternoon hours will be the most congested. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst traffic, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times. Watch for stopped vehicles and Slow Down, Move Over for emergency responders.

Please note that the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

Holiday Forecast Methodology

Travel Forecast

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, forecast U.S. travel behavior and position brand, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 19, 2025.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

Independence Day Holiday Travel Period

The Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the nine-day period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024 with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.