Pablo Torre, host of the “Pablo Torre Finds Out” podcast, released on Tuesday the 61-page decision that had been kept secret since being issued on Jan. 14 from the NFLPA’s grievance against the NFL alleging teams and the league colluded to prevent fully guaranteed contracts from being offered to players. The grievance the NFLPA filed in October 2022 was initially limited to three quarterbacks — Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson — but was subsequently expanded to seek relief on behalf of 594 players. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, several NFL owners, Jackson and Wilson testified in the arbitration hearing held over 10 days in July and August 2024.

Judge Christopher F. Droney, head of the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, dismissed the NFLPA’s claim because the evidence presented didn’t prove collusion. System Arbitrator Droney put in his ruling:

“There is little question that the NFL Management Council, with the blessing of the Commissioner, encouraged the 32 NFL Clubs to reduce guarantees in veterans’ contracts at the March 2022 annual owners meeting. However, the evidence did not establish a clear preponderance that the Clubs agreed to do that or participated in such a scheme. There are many Clubs whose only connection to his proceeding is the attendance at the Owners’ meeting, and the expert evidence of aggregate and average changes in various measure of spending, guaranteed and otherwise, is not sufficient, even when considered with the other evidence presented, for the NFLPA to meet its standard of proof.”

The March 2022 meeting took place shortly after the Cleveland Browns surprisingly gave quarterback Deshaun Watson a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million deal in connection with his trade from the Houston Texans, although he had four years worth $136 million remaining on his contract. At this meeting, the NFL Management Council, which advises team executives and owners about NFL player contract and related economic trends, gave a presentation that stressed the potential adverse consequences, such as a lack of salary cap flexibility in roster construction, from the growth in salary guarantees that players were receiving.

It’s understandable why the NFL and owners wouldn’t want the decision released publicly despite prevailing in the grievance. A peak of what goes on behind the scenes is given where neither is painted in a favorable light. Regardless of Droney’s ruling, limiting contract guarantees seemingly became more of a priority for Management Council and in turn NFL teams after the Watson contract.

Management Council’s influence on NFL teams shouldn’t be understated. One of the easier paths to becoming a team contract negotiator or managing a team’s salary is working for Management Council. Matt Harriss (Arizona Cardinals), Khai Hartley (New Orleans Saints), Vin Marino (Tennessee Titans), Ed McGuire (Los Angeles Chargers) and Chris Olsen (Atlanta Falcons) are among those who hold such positions that worked for Management Council prior to joining an NFL team.

The NFLPA inexplicably concealed Droney’s decision, which Torre speculated on his podcast may have been motivated by internal politics. If so, players have a right to question whether the NFLPA is operating in their best as a union.

How language agreed upon by NFLPA cost it a verdict in collusion battle with NFL over fully guaranteed deals Jonathan Jones

Players and their agents, especially with All-Pro-caliber clients, should be upset that the NFLPA didn’t immediately share the decision with them. Evaluation of any potential options under the collective bargaining agreement or through the legal system because of the decision could have been done in the most timely manner possible. Knowledge of the decision also may have been beneficial in individual contract negotiations for these types of players.

The players are already at a big disadvantage in collective bargaining with owners. In a labor dispute, the owners have already demonstrated a willingness to go to extreme lengths that the players won’t by initiating a work stoppage through a lockout. Trying to weaponize the decision by exploring different avenues, like calling for a congressional investigation into the NFL, would seemingly have a better chance of impacting the labor/management dynamic than suppressing the report.

Droney’s ruling specifically addresses the situations of the three quarterbacks. According to the decision, Erik Burkhardt, Murray’s agent, asked for a fully guaranteed contract after Watson’s deal. Burkhardt felt Murray was the better player and more deserving of a fully guaranteed contract than Watson.

Kyler Murray ARI • QB • #1 CMP% 68.8 YDs 3851 TD 21 INT 11 YD/Att 7.12 View Profile

The Arizona Cardinals were adamantly opposed to a fully guaranteed contract. Murray, who had two years remaining on his rookie deal, signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension worth up to $238 million through salary escalators at the end of July in 2022.

There are $160 million in overall guarantees where $103.3 million was fully guaranteed at signing. An additional $29.5 million in the latter years of Murray’s contract, which isn’t guaranteed for injury at signing, can also become completely secure to bring the total amount that can be guaranteed to $189.5 million.

Quite frankly, a fully guaranteed contract was never a realistic possibility for Murray because the Cardinals aren’t considered a cash-rich team. Meeting the NFL’s archaic funding rules where teams are essentially required to put into an escrow account the amount of any guarantees in a contract other than those just for injury, including ones in future contract years, was going to problematic for the Cardinals.

Murray’s signing bonus in his rookie contract wasn’t paid in a lump like 2019 second overall pick Nick Bosa got from the San Francisco 49ers. Out of Murray’s $23,589,924 signing bonus, $6,839,924 was deferred until March 1, 2020.

Murray’s contract originally contained an unprecedented clause requiring four hours of independent film study during each week of the regular season to prevent his guarantees from voiding. The controversial clause was removed from Murray’s contract a few days later because of the distraction it was causing. A team that gave even the slightest consideration to a fully guaranteed contract wouldn’t have insisted on such a clause.

One noteworthy passage is the inclusion of a text exchange where Los Angeles Chargers owner Dean Spanos congratulates Cardinals owner Michael Bidwell on the Murray deal because not doing a fully guaranteed contract was going to be helpful in own negotiations with quarterback Justin Herbert. Bidwell acknowledged in his reply that he was resolved to keep the full guarantee relatively low after how Cleveland “screwed things up”.

Justin Herbert LAC • QB • #10 CMP% 65.9 YDs 3870 TD 23 INT 3 YD/Att 7.68 View Profile

As a 2020 draft pick, Herbert, who was selected sixth overall, wasn’t eligible to sign an extension until then end of the 2022 regular season. Herbert signed a five-year, $262.5 million extension averaging $52.5 million per year worth a maximum of $265 million through salary escalator at the start of training camp in 2023. The deal has $193,738,375 in guarantees, of which $133,738,375 is fully guaranteed at signing. The total amount that can become guaranteed is $218,738,375. That’s because $25 million of Herbert’s unsecured $47 million 2028 base salary is guaranteed for injury on the third day of the 2026 league year (mid-March 2026). The $25 million becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2027 league year (mid-March 2027).

There are a couple of interesting nuggets about Wilson’s interactions with the Denver Broncos from his testimony. Preliminary conversations about a new deal took place as Wilson agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Seattle Seahawks in early March 2022. The Broncos initially didn’t seem to have an issue with a fully guaranteed contract in the $50 million-per-year range on a five-year extension, which would run for seven years since Wilson had two years left on his existing contract. Roughly two weeks later, once Wilson had waived his no-trade clause, the Broncos started having second thoughts about the fully guaranteed contract after indicating a willingness to do whatever was necessary to acquire him.

Russell Wilson NYG • QB • #3 CMP% 63.7 YDs 2482 TD 16 INT 5 YD/Att 7.39 View Profile

Droney doesn’t seem to appreciate the practical circumstances when a team acquires a marquee player who has remaining years on a contract. Ordinarily, when a team gives up a significant amount of assets, draft capital and/or players in a trade, the acquired player has a tremendous amount of negotiating leverage if a new contract isn’t done simultaneously. Wilson is one of those rare instances that the acquiring team would have been better off waiting with a contract because of his shocking decline during his debut season with the Broncos.

Wilson’s deal was delayed because of the impending change in Broncos ownership that wasn’t approved until August 2022. Once the new ownership group led by Greg Penner, who is the chairman of Walmart, was in place, Wilson signed a five-year, $245 million extension shortly before the start of the 2022 regular season. His deal contained $165 million in guarantees with $124 million fully guaranteed at signing, which at the time was the second most ever in an NFL contract.

Penner seemed to be acutely aware of not ruffling any feathers with existing owners as the new kid on the block. In email communications with others in Broncos’ ownership group, he commented that there was nothing in Wilson’s deal that other owners would consider “off market” like Watson’s guarantees.

We’ll never know if Wilson taking a hardline stance about having an agreement in principle about a fully guaranteed contract before accepting a trade would have been a deal breaker for the Broncos or would have been accommodated in order to complete his acquisition. According to testimony, Wilson considered his contract to be effectively fully guaranteed, which certainly wasn’t the case. The Broncos released Wilson in March 2024 after just two seasons prior to his injury guaranteed $37 million 2025 base salary became fully guaranteed.

Wilson still made out like a bandit though. He collected $122.79 million from his brief stint in Denver when he had $51 million left on the two years of his Seahawks contract. Since Wilson didn’t play any of the new years in his Broncos deal, he came out $71.79 million ahead compared to not signing a new contract.

The most revealing thing from the Jackson negotiations is that Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta wasn’t opposed to shorter-term fully guaranteed contracts. According to the decision, DeCosta offered Jackson two different three-year contracts that he considered fully guaranteed after the 2022 season ended. The total value of these deals was not disclosed.

Lamar Jackson BAL • QB • #8 CMP% 66.7 YDs 4172 TD 41 INT 4 YD/Att 8.8 View Profile

As long as there wasn’t a significant difference from the $156 million in the first three years of the five-year, $260 million contract he signed in early May 2023, Jackson probably should have taken the best of DeCosta’s three-year offers. Jackson’s actual deal has $185 million of overall guarantees where $135 million was fully guaranteed. The $135 million fully guaranteed at signing includes a then-NFL-record $72.5 million signing bonus.

Jackson likely would have already gotten another deal since 2025 would have been his contract year. He still may get one prior to the start of the 2025 regular season. The Ravens and Jackson have engaged in some discussions about extending his contract sooner rather than later because his $74.5 million salary cap number in 2026 is untenable.

The decision confirmed that no teams reached out to Jackson after the Ravens gave him a non-exclusive franchise tag for $32.416 million in March 2023. Droney seemed to be persuaded by all of the justifications, some of which are more valid than others, that owners gave for why there wasn’t any interest in Jackson.

Not wanting to put the time and effort into creating an offer sheet that the Ravens would likely match is a legitimate concern. Two first-round draft-pick compensation for an unmatched offer sheet being a deterrent is laughable given Jackson is an MVP-caliber quarterback and the acquisition cost of Watson and Wilson.

The Texans dealt Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick to the Browns for 2022, 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick. The Broncos acquired Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick from the Seahawks for multiple players (tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock), 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, 2022 and 2023 second-round picks and a 2022 fifth-round pick.

There have also been non-quarterbacks, including safety Jamal Adams, cornerback Jalen Ramsey and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, with acquisition costs of more than two first-round picks,. For example, the Seahawks dealt 2021 and 2022 first-round picks, a 2021 third-round pick and safety Bradley McDougald to the New York Jets for Adams and a 2022 fourth-round pick in July 2020.

Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank testifying that Jackson’s injuries helped dissuade a pursuit of him is puzzling in light of his team’s subsequent quarterback decisions. Putting aside Atlanta’s misguided faith in 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder, who is currently unsigned, as the potential quarterback of the future, Kirk Cousins received a four-year, $180 million contract, averaging $45 million per year with $100 million in guarantees, of which $90 million was fully guaranteed at signing, in 2024 free agency. Cousins, who turns 37 in August, was coming off a torn right Achilles that ended his 2023 season after eight games. Jackson’s most significant injury has been the PCL sprain in his left knee during the 2022 season that sidelined him for the final six games, including the playoffs.

An extensive injury history didn’t prevent the Falcons from selecting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with 2024’s eighth overall pick. Penix had two seasons in college cut short because of separate ACL tears. He also missed time in college because of injuries to each shoulder.

Ultimately, the clear preponderance of the evidence standard may have contributed to the NFLPA’s inability to prevail. It’s a higher burden of proof than preponderance of the evidence in civil litigation. Based on Droney’s unwillingness to connect the dots with the owners and the league’s conduct, a true smoking gun might be necessary to find collusion.

It could have been a different story with Herbert and Murray getting extensions in the same offseason where Spanos and Bidwell were communicating during the negotiating process. Conduct like that would require a lot of hubris from owners.