AI, white-collar jobs, and the next economic shift
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Jobs survive, pay and purpose don’t: The quiet risk of workplace AI
Dario Amodei, chief executive officer of AI startup Anthropic, recently predicted that within the next five years AI could wipe out up to 50 per cent of entry-level white-collar jobs. But sociologists of work say fears of immediate and widespread AI displacement are potentially overblown. Signs are emerging that the conditions and perceived value of some white- collar work is shifting. Employers may already be recalibrating the value of these positions, even as hiring continues, they say. But we shouldn’t assume this future will preserve this job quality, given rapid improvement in AI models, they write. They add that it will undoubtedly create new roles and opportunities, particularly where human judgment remains essential and where it’s possible to retain control over the technology. The authors conclude that we should not assume that future jobs will exist where this essential job quality remains essential, but that it may be possible to preserve this future story in the long run. They conclude: “The future of the white collar job market is likely to be far more uncertain than we previously thought.”
Scott Schieman is professor of sociology and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto.
Alexander Wilson is a graduate student in sociology at the University of Toronto.
If one of the leading voices in artificial intelligence is right, a storm could be brewing for white-collar workers. Dario Amodei, chief executive officer of AI startup Anthropic, recently predicted that within the next five years AI could wipe out up to 50 per cent of entry‑level white‑collar jobs – and push unemployment to 10‑20 per cent.
Skeptics dismiss this as Silicon Valley hype or the predictable boosterism of a CEO selling his technology.
History supports the skeptics. Previous job-killing innovations rarely met dire predictions. Economists often reassure us that technology complements workers rather than replacing them, boosting productivity.
When ATMs arrived in the 1970s, for example, banks redeployed tellers into customer service and financial advisory roles requiring more creativity and human judgment.
But AI’s advance may be different: it cuts across countless occupations and today’s AI models already draft emails, summarize documents, write code and generate reports – striking at the heart of white-collar work.
Our ongoing Canadian Quality of Work and Economic Life Survey (C-QWELS) reveal how these changes are registering with Canadian workers. From September 2023 to April 2025, the share who said machines or computers were “very” or “somewhat” likely to take over much of their current job rose from 17 to 23 per cent. Strikingly, this increase occurred almost entirely in the last six months – and was driven by university graduates, whose concern jumped nearly 10 percentage points over that period.
Few workers anticipate losing their position outright to automation (9 per cent). Workers instead increasingly expect adaptation rather than replacement. The share who believed their role would be adapted to work alongside new technology rose to 23 per cent in April from 16 per cent.
Yet the word adapted deserves scrutiny. While it may signal continuity, it doesn’t guarantee that work remains meaningful, skill-intensive or fairly compensated.
As sociologists of work, we see several reasons for concern, even if fears of immediate and widespread AI displacement are potentially overblown. Claims of a “white-collar bloodbath” and “job apocalypse” – that is, “something alarming happening to the job market” – certainly make for attention-grabbing headlines (and, at this stage of the purported advancements, they probably should).
Erosion before displacement
If predictions about future AI capabilities are even partly correct, we may be seeing only the early contours of what lies ahead. Already, signs are emerging that the conditions and perceived value of some white-collar work is shifting. At Amazon, software engineers report that AI tools are accelerating production timelines while reducing time for thoughtful coding and increasing output expectations. According to New York Times reporting, many now spend more time reviewing and debugging machine-generated code than writing their own. The work remains, but its character is changing – less autonomous, more pressure, and arguably less fulfilling.
This shift in work quality may be creating broader economic ripples. Barclays economists have found that workers in AI-exposed roles are experiencing measurably slower wage growth – nearly three-quarters of a percentage point less per year for every 10-point increase in AI exposure. Employers may already be recalibrating the value of these positions, even as hiring continues.
Uneven impacts
Different forms of white-collar work may face vastly different futures under AI, depending on professional autonomy and control over the technology. Consider radiologists, initially seen as vulnerable given AI’s strength in image analysis. Yet, the profession has grown, with AI enabling faster analysis rather than replacement. Crucially, radiologists retain control. They make final diagnoses, communicate with patients and carry legal responsibility. Here, AI complements human expertise in what economists refer to as Jevons Paradox – where technological efficiency increases demand by making services cheaper and more accessible.
Medical transcription offers a more cautionary tale. As AI speech-to-text tools improve, transcriptionists have shifted from producing reports to editing and error detection. In theory, this sounds like higher-skilled oversight work. In practice, it often means scanning AI output under time pressure and reduced job discretion. While jobs such as this one still exist, their perceived value is diminishing. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a 5 per cent employment decline between 2023 and 2033 – and given the rapid improvement in transcription models, that estimate may prove conservative.
Adaptation isn’t necessarily promotion
AI will undoubtedly create new roles and opportunities, particularly where human judgment remains essential. But we shouldn’t assume this future will preserve job quality. The story of retail banking offers a sobering lesson: automation first increased the number of teller jobs – but didn’t raise pay. Ultimately, tellers weren’t replaced by machines but by digital banking, shifting many to call centre jobs with less autonomy and lower wages. Even in the absence of widespread job displacement, AI may follow a similar pattern –reshaping many jobs in ways that reduce discretion, increase surveillance and erode its overall value.
There remains considerable debate about how disruptive AI will be. But amid that uncertainty lies a risk of public complacency – or even disengagement from the issue. As Canadians, we need a sustained and open conversation about how these workplace changes are unfolding and where they might lead.
This column is part of Globe Careers’ Leadership Lab series, where executives and experts share their views and advice about the world of work. Find all Leadership Lab stories at tgam.ca/leadershiplab and guidelines for how to contribute to the column here.
Fed chair Powell says AI is coming for your job
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says AI will change the economy. He says it’s too soon to tell how big the change will be. But he says it will have a big impact on the economy, especially in the short-term. “The Fed doesn’t have the tools to address the social issues that will arise from this,” he says. “We just have interest rates” to deal with it, he adds, “and that’s what we’re going to focus on” The U.S. is expected to use AI to cut its workforce by up to 20 percent by 2030.
Speaking to the US Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday to give his semiannual monetary policy report, Powell told elected officials that AI’s effect on the economy to date is “probably not great” yet, but it has “enormous capabilities to make really significant changes in the economy and labor force.”
Powell declined to predict how quickly that change could happen, only noting that the final few leaps to get from a shiny new technology to practical implementation can be a slow one.
“What’s happened before with technology is that it seems to take a long time to be implemented,” Powell said. “That last phase has tended to take longer than people expect.”
AI is likely to follow that trend, Powell asserted, but he has no idea what sort of timeline that puts on the eventual economy-transforming maturation point of artificial intelligence.
“There’s a tremendous uncertainty about the timing of [economic changes], what the ultimate consequences will be and what the medium term consequences will be,” Powell said.
Powell’s belief that AI isn’t yet causing massive changes to the labor market has been shown in a recent study that found the technology isn’t yet replacing jobs or depressing wages. But there’s also evidence to suggest whatever trickle effect AI may be having is beginning to gain speed.
UK telecom giant BT announced plans in 2023 to cut 42 percent of its workforce (around 55,000 people) by 2030, and said last week that AI might enable even greater reductions. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, meanwhile, expressed concern that AI might be coming for entry-level white collar workers, eliminating as many as half of those positions in the next five years and as much as 20 percent of the broader labor force.
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said in a Thursday interview on Bloomberg’s The Circuit that AI is already doing “30 to 50 percent of the work at Salesforce now,” and that he expects workforce cuts to be ongoing as he turns his operation into one powered by AI agents.
“We’re looking at productivity levels of 30 to 50 percent this year in key functions like engineering, coding [and] support,” Benioff said. “I think that will continue.”
That continuation will be watched by the Fed, Powell told Senators, but that doesn’t mean he’ll have the power to do anything about it.
“The Fed doesn’t have the tools to address the social issues and the labor market issues that will arise from this,” Powell said. “We just have interest rates.”
In other words, someone else is going to have to actually act to prevent the worst of the potential economic AI fallout, Senators. ®
‘Entry-level jobs are under threat’: Inside the AI shift reshaping the workforce
Gaining and refining skills any way you can get them is the new path forward, say tech insiders.Societies all over the world, Australia included, are reevaluating how the next generation of workers can be trained and progress in their careers. The collapse of early-career opportunities that enable workers to gain experience and learn on the job is an urgent challenge. Microsoft made its first round of entry-level job cuts, culling 2,000 employees, in January. This week, publicly traded Microsoft valued at almost $5 trillion – said to be chopping another 9,000 jobs, some 4 per cent of its total workforce, according to a report. The firm won’t confirm that number, though it says it is “implementing organisational changes to best position the company for a dynamic marketplace.” Aneesh Raman, LinkedIn’s Chief Economic Opportunity Officer, says the ‘skills first’ approach can be delivered through universities, TAFE, or other avenues.
Societies all over the world, Australia included, are reevaluating how the next generation of workers can be trained and progress in their careers. Image: Getty
On a summery 25-degree day in June, Ford CEO Jim Farley stepped into a crowded room in Colorado’s preeminent ski town and said out loud what vast swaths of the global workforce have been thinking.
“AI is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers,” Farley told the Aspen Ideas Festival audience.
The automotive CEO’s sombre speech has since made headlines around the world, but he is not alone in making declarative statements about the impending dismantling of well-trodden career pathways toward upward mobility.
“We’ve been hearing from young people all over the world about how tough it is to land that first job and how AI is changing the nature of work and career building faster than a lot of folks expected.” Aneesh Raman, LinkedIn’s Chief Economic Opportunity Officer
Dario Amodei, the former OpenAI executive and founder of AI heavyweight Anthropic, also posited in recent months that is likely that new-graduate job decline will go far beyond the tech sector.
“AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years,” Amodei told news outlet Axios in May. ” I don’t think this is on people’s radar. We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming.”
Statements like that are pushing companies all over the world, Australia included, to reevaluate how the next generation of workers can be trained and progress in their careers.
ReadyTech’s Chris Smith says the collapse of early-career opportunities that enable workers to gain experience and learn on the job is an urgent challenge. Image: ReadyTech
“Entry-level jobs are under threat,” says Chris Smith, the head of strategy and innovation at Australian-founded software company ReadyTech.
“AI is set to reshape the talent landscape. While much of the discourse often centres on disruption, the more urgent challenge in our view is the collapse of early-career opportunities, the foundational roles that enable workers to gain experience, learn on the job, and progress.”
ASX-listed, Sydney-headquartered ReadyTech was founded by British entrepreneur Marc Washbourne in 1999. The firm recently joined NSW’s Skills Pledge, providing solutions to facilitate 20 per cent of Australian digital entry-level hires coming through alternative pathways. It is a ‘skills first’ approach that can be delivered through universities, TAFE, or other avenues.
“We’re taking an employment-first approach, prioritising upward career mobility for those already in entry-level roles such as customer support. This creates natural openings for new talent to enter low-skilled roles with fewer barriers, allowing us to recruit for potential, not pedigree,” says Smith.
“Once inside, we focus on developing mastery, defining clear technical pathways, and repeating the cycle. It’s a scalable, human-centred solution to a rapidly shifting labour market.”
Damian Kassabgi, the CEO of the Tech Council of Australia, says it is vital that the tech talent pipeline is expanded. Image: TCA
It is a fix that is endorsed by the very top of the tech pyramid.
“Alternative pathways, such as vocational training, vendor courses, and earn-while-you-learn models, play a vital role in building our tech workforce pipeline,” says Damian Kassabgi, CEO of the Tech Council of Australia.
“We believe the Pledge will play a significant role in the development of innovation and growth in our sector, helping to secure Australia’s digital future.”
The entry-level jobcopalypse
In January, Seattle-headquartered tech company Microsoft made its first round of 2025 job cuts, culling 2,000 employees. Four months later, 8,000 had been laid off. This week, publicly traded Microsoft – valued at almost AUD$5.7 trillion today – is said to be chopping another 9,000 jobs, some 4 per cent of its total workforce.
It has been reported that 120 of the July lay-offs are Australian-based, though Microsoft won’t confirm that number. Instead, the company says it is “implementing organisational changes to best position the company for success in a dynamic marketplace,” according to a statement given to Forbes Australia.
Source: SignalFire 2025 State of Tech Talent report
While all eyes are on the Microsoft employees heading out the door, equally concerning is the decline in the number of entry-level graduates entering tech company offices for the first time.
”As budgets tighten and AI capabilities increase, companies are reducing their investment in new grad opportunities,” says Asher Bantock, the head of research at San Francisco venture capital firm SignalFire.
Bantock calls the halving of entry-level recruitment in recent years a ‘hiring drought.’ SignalFire’s 2025 State of Tech Talent report found that graduate hiring slowed 25 per cent in 2024. and has declined 50 per cent since 2019. The cause of the drought is AI, the research reveals.
“As AI tools take over more routine, entry-level tasks, companies are prioritising roles that deliver high-leverage technical output,” the Tech Talent report reads.
“Big Tech is doubling down on machine learning and data engineering, while non-technical functions like recruiting, product, and sales keep shrinking – making it especially tough for Gen Z and early-career talent to break in.”
Job prospects for graduates are declining, and it is just the start of what is to come, according to tech executives. Image: Getty
Recruitment is particularly dire at tech’s ‘magnificent seven’ firms – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla, according to the research. That predominantly impacts hiring near the headquarters of these companies – ie, in the US – though the impact is starting to be felt in other countries, too.
Breaking – and fixing – the bottom rung of the career ladder
Diversifying the tech talent pipeline is a priority at Microsoft’s local operation, too.
“The 20% Alternative Pathways Pledge offers a significant opportunity for us to collectively strengthen the digital workforce while promoting diversity and inclusion,” says Steven Worrall, the CEO of Microsoft ANZ and the Chair of the NSW Skills Board.
Microsoft ANZ signed on to the pledge in 2024, prioritising ‘traineeships’ to get more Australians into the tech company doors and facilitate the Australian government’s objective to fill 1.2 million tech job within five years.
Steve Worrall, CEO of Microsoft ANZ, is working to expand the pipeline of talent into Australian outposts of US tech companies. Worrall will step down from Microsoft at the end of August. Image: Microsoft
“This commitment is a unique opportunity to set the standard for inclusive hiring practices, showing leadership across the private and public sectors,” says Worrall, who will step down from Microsoft’s CEO role at the end of August 2025.
Top brass at LinkedIn, another Microsoft entity, is also showing concern over the decline of entry-level tech opportunities.
“We’ve been hearing from young people all over the world about how tough it is to land that first job and how AI is changing the nature of work and career building faster than a lot of folks expected,” LinkedIn’s Chief Economic Opportunity Officer Aneesh Raman said recently.
Raman wrote an op-ed in the New York Times in May stating that the bottom rung of the career ladder is breaking.
“There are growing signs that artificial intelligence poses a real threat to a substantial number of the jobs that normally serve as the first step for each new generation of young workers,” Raman said in the article.
And that is what ReadyTech and other Australian tech executives are working to find answers for.
“AI doesn’t have to mean the death of the first job,” says Smith. “But it does force us to rethink how we create, protect and evolve entry-level roles.”
Look back on the week that was with hand-picked articles from Australia and around the world. Sign up to the Forbes Australia newsletter here or become a member here.
End of six-figure coding jobs? Meet Devin: Goldman’s new AI engineer that works like a human, but for no salary
Goldman Sachs is integrating Devin, an AI-powered software developer, to enhance worker productivity, potentially quadrupling output. This move signals a shift towards a hybrid workforce where AI and humans collaborate. While Goldman Sachs continues to hire engineers, the rise of AI may particularly impact entry-level positions, prompting concerns about future job security in white-collar roles.Within the next three to five years, Wall Street may see 200,000 fewer employees as a result of this AI-driven workforce transformation. Those who have learned to use AI tools to improve their work will advance as the shift to AI occurs in years rather than decades.Professionals who are not adept at using AI tools will lag behind, while those who are will progress. The best candidates for a prosperous future, particularly young talent confronting dwindling entry- level positions, will be those who embrace AI, experts say.
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( Originally published on Jul 15, 2025 )
Meet Goldman Sachs ‘ newest engineer, one who doesn’t need coffee breaks, paychecks, or stock options. Devin, an AI-powered software developer , is a sign of the Goldman Sachs’ brave step into the future of tech work. with AI tools advancing fast, white-collar jobs may never look the same again.Goldman Sachs’ AI software engineer can apparently code with the same accuracy as a person.According to Goldman’s chief information officer Marco Argenti, the tool’s ability to perform end-to-end coding tasks is expected to increase worker productivity by up to three or four times the rate of earlier AI tools.“Devin will be like our new employee who will begin doing things on behalf of our developers, so we’re going to start augmenting our workforce with him,” Argenti recently told CNBC.The company plans to increase worker productivity by more than four times using AI tools and possibly unleash thousands of them. Although the company’s tech leader envisions a ” hybrid workforce ” that combines AI and humans, executives like Jim Farley, the CEO of Ford, caution about a decline in white-collar jobs, as per a report by Fortune.Devin is an AI-powered autonomous software engineer who was recently hired by the Wall Street investment bank. Devin was developed by the AI startup Cognition.Goldman Sachs intends to hire hundreds of Devins, possibly even thousands in the future, Argenti said, to join the company’s current workforce of almost 12,000 software engineers.Marco Argenti expressed his hope that this action will contribute to the emergence of a “hybrid workforce,” where AI and humans coexist.According to Argenti, “it’s really about people and AIs working side by side.” “Engineers will need to be able to effectively explain issues in a comprehensible manner, translate them into prompts, and then be able to oversee the work of those agents,” as per a reprot by Fortune.With dozens of open positions worldwide, Goldman is still hiring software engineers in spite of the push to launch Devin. Some associate positions in New York start at about $115,000 per year, and some even go as high as $180,000.However, company executives have cautioned that these early career roles are the ones that AI may replace the earliest.Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, for instance, projected that within five years, AI would replace half of all entry-level white-collar jobs.Jim Farley, the CEO of Ford, went one step further and issued a warning: outside of those in their early careers, all white-collar jobs could vanish in the United States.Within the next three to five years, Wall Street may see 200,000 fewer employees as a result of this AI-driven workforce transformation, according to Bloomberg.The best candidates for a prosperous future, particularly young talent confronting dwindling entry-level positions, will be those who embrace AI. Those who have learned to use AI tools to improve their work will advance as the shift to AI occurs in years rather than decades.Professionals who are not adept at using AI tools will lag behind, while those who are will progress.Devin, an AI engineer , is assisting with end-to-end coding tasks, increasing developer productivity by three to four times.Not entirely, but it may reduce the demand for entry-level positions. Goldman still intends to hire engineers, but it is preparing for a hybrid human-AI workforce.
As job losses loom, Anthropic launches program to track AI’s economic fallout
Anthropic on Friday launched its Economic Futures Program. The program will support research on AI’s impacts on the labor market and global economy. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to as high as 20% in the next one to five years. The company has opened applications for its rapid grants of up to $50,000 for “empirical research” and evidence-based policy proposals for Anthropic-hosted symposia events in Washington, D.C., and Europe in the fall.. Don’t miss the 20th anniversary of TechCrunch Disrupt, and a chance to learn from the top voices in tech — grab your ticket now and save up to £675 before prices rise. For the grants, individuals, teams that can come up with high-quality data in short short period of time, be able to complete within six months, she said.
Amid this backdrop, Anthropic on Friday launched its Economic Futures Program, a new initiative to support research on AI’s impacts on the labor market and global economy and to develop policy proposals to prepare for the shift.
“Everybody’s asking questions about what are the economic impacts [of AI], both positive and negative,” Sarah Heck, head of policy programs and partnerships at Anthropic, told TechCrunch. “It’s really important to root these conversations in evidence and not have predetermined outcomes or views on what’s going to [happen].”
At least one prominent name has shared his views on the potential economic impact of AI: Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei. In May, Amodei predicted that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to as high as 20% in the next one to five years.
When asked if one of the key goals of Anthropic’s Economic Futures Program was to research ways to mitigate AI-related job loss, Heck was cautious, noting that the disruptive shifts AI will bring could be “both good and bad.”
“I think the key goal is to figure out what is actually happening,” she said. “If there is job loss, then we should convene a collective group of thinkers to talk about mitigation. If there will be huge GDP expansion, great. We should also convene policy makers to figure out what to do with that. I don’t think any of this will be a monolith.”
The program builds on Anthropic’s existing Economic Index, launched in February, which open sources aggregated, anonymized data to analyze the effects of AI on labor markets and the economy over time — data that many of its competitors lock behind corporate walls.
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The program will focus on three main areas: providing grants to researchers investigating AI’s effect on labor, productivity, and value creation; creating forums to develop and evaluate policy proposals to prepare for AI’s economic impacts; and building datasets to track AI’s economic usage and impact.
Anthropic is kicking off the program with some action items.
The company has opened applications for its rapid grants of up to $50,000 for “empirical research on AI’s economic impacts,” as well as evidence-based policy proposals for Anthropic-hosted symposia events in Washington, D.C., and Europe in the fall. Anthropic is also seeking partnerships with independent research institutions and will provide partners with Claude API credits and other resources to support research.
For the grants, Heck noted that Anthropic is looking for individuals, academics, or teams that can come up with high-quality data in a short period of time.
“We want to be able to complete it within six months,” she said. “It doesn’t necessarily have to be peer-reviewed.”
For the symposia, Anthropic wants policy ideas from a wide variety of backgrounds and intellectual perspectives, said Heck. She noted that policy proposals would go “beyond labor.”
“We want to understand more about the transitions,” she said. “How do workflows happen in new ways? How are new jobs being created that nobody ever contemplated before? … How are certain skills remaining valuable while others are not?”
Heck said Anthropic also hopes to study the effects of AI on fiscal policy. For example, what happens if there’s a major shift in the way enterprises see value creation?
“We really want to open the aperture here on things that can be studied,” Heck said. “Labor is certainly one of them, but it’s a much broader swath.”
Anthropic rival OpenAI released its own Economic Blueprint in January, which focuses more on helping the public adopt AI tools, building robust AI infrastructure and establishing “AI economic zones” that streamline regulations to promote investment. While OpenAI’s Stargate project to build data centers across the U.S. in partnership with Oracle and SoftBank would create thousands of construction jobs, OpenAI doesn’t directly address AI-related job loss in its economic blueprint.
OpenAI’s blueprint does, however, outline frameworks where government could play a role in supply chain training pipelines, investing in AI literacy, supporting regional training programs, and scaling public university access to compute to foster local AI-literate workforces.
Anthropic’s economic impact program is part of a slow but growing shift among some tech companies to position themselves as part of the solution to the disruption they’re helping to create — whether out of reputational concern, genuine altruism, or a mix of both. For instance, on Thursday, ride-hail company Lyft launched a forum to gather input from human drivers as it starts integrating robotaxis into its platform.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ai-white-collar-jobs-next-100026528.html