Investors in Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.4% to close at US$187 following the release of its second-quarter results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$2.4b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.12 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Waste Connections is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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NYSE:WCN Earnings and Revenue Growth July 27th 2025

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Waste Connections’ 23 analysts is for revenues of US$9.47b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 2.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 78% to US$4.45. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$9.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.61 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Waste Connections

The consensus price target held steady at US$211, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Waste Connections at US$227 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$150. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Waste Connections shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Waste Connections’ past performance and to peers in the same industry. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Waste Connections’ revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. So it’s pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Waste Connections.