How does extreme heat affect a restaurant’s business level? —Julie M., St. Louis

It’s a good question. Do people say, “The hell with cooking today” and dine out? Or say, “It’s too hot to go out” and simply eat at home or have something delivered? And does the situation change—for better or worse—when the temperature moderates, as we’ve just experienced.

Years ago, when I was working my first job (at a place called The Harvest Moon in Columbia, Missouri), I recall co-owner Dennis Harper (who also owned Harpo’s next door) telling me something I never forgot that I found to be true: When the weather changes, so does an establishment’s business level for the first day or so. But once diners got used to the change in the weather (the cold, the heat, the rain, the snow on the ground), things would revert more to normal.

We asked a few local restaurant chefs and owners if extreme heat affects their restaurants:

Natasha Bahrami, The Gin Room, Salve Osteria: “We definitely notice guests shift and come out later. We just instituted a ‘Heat Wave Happy Hour,’ from 5–7 p.m. Monday through Friday, to thank those who are willing to join us earlier.”

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Brant Baldanza, OG Hospitality Group: “Well, our chili sales are certainly down at The Corner Pub over the last eight days—that’s for sure! Outside of that, business has been ‘at the number’ compared to last year for all concepts, even with the sweatbox occurring, certainly better than the deep freeze we had back in January. With Doordash humming along at both Corner and Shack, we are able to reach those guests who don’t want to fire up the kitchen at home. Side note: I took two ‘cooling breaks’ to type this response.”

Mark Hinkle, O+O Hospitality Group: “I think the heat limits what anyone wants to do. The heat and humidity are brutal, so anything outside is a no-go. But coming to see us with our AC blasting with no regard for our Ameren bill and a cold glass of white wine with some oysters, or an ice cold beer from Perennial makes life a little better.”

Steve Gontram, 5 Star Burgers, No Ordinary Rabbit: “Per my experience, the answer depends on the concept. Fine dining was always hit harder by extreme heat. People would lose their appetite. Business in St. Louis always picked up when the clocks were set back and cooler weather prevailed. In the burger biz, however, the heat doesn’t seem to play as much of a role. Granted, people won’t sit outside, but we’re plenty busy inside, and because we cater to such a wide range of regular customers, we always seem to stay busy. Being in a value price point helps us in all types of weather at 5 Star. Now, I just walked into the Rabbit, and we have a packed bar! I guess the heat has driven a bunch of folks inside for cocktails and happy hour, so no complaints here either!”

Kevin Willmann, Farmhaus: “I’m not sure we even did enough biz to pay the damn Ameren bill! I think next year we’ll just close for July. “

Qui Tran, Mai Lee, Nudo House: “You would think that we’re used to it in St Louis. We normally get one month out of the year when there’s a heat wave. But I think it’s the humidity that really keeps people from going out. Humidity hurts business.”

Aaron Teitelbaum, Herbie’s, Kingside Diner: “We have found that people who normally would go out at this time of year for patio season don’t particularly shift to the indoors. Our business hasn’t seen a huge decline, but we don’t see the typical boost that comes with patio season when weather is this hot. We also shipped our menus and specials to be lighter and support the hotter weather. Our breakfast and lunch locations do not suffer as much. I find that I don’t even wanna go out when it’s this hot and if I do, it’s to a pool, lake, or some sort of indoor activity. Eating is less appealing. All that said, we are looking forward to the break in the heat.”

Dominic Weiss, Big Sky Café: “To be honest. we are seeing little bit of both, as strange as that may seem. The guests that are coming in have mentioned not wanting to be in their own kitchens with the heatwave. And we’ve taken cancellations from guests saying it’s just too warm to leave the house. Lunches have been a little busier before the peak temperatures and are up in general. Overall, though, we are seeing most of the current daily levels trending with the weather forecasts. The super extremes keep a few more people at home. For example, last week when the expected end of the heat advisory was Wednesday evening, it was a quiet start to the week, but we took a lot of reservations for a busy Thursday. Then when the advisory was extended, we saw a slight dip for Friday. It’s almost a wash taken altogether, but we do notice the effect. This is actually a common conversation in my circles. Many believe that serious weather events since the beginning of the year have had bearing on people’s behavior, for good and understandable reason.”

Aleksander Jovanovic, Truffles: “I am sure it is different for everyone, but no complaints on our summer so far.”

Matt Ratz, UKraft Brunch Café: “We typically see a decrease in July, compared to May, June, and even August. How much can be attributed to heat, vacations, and the 4th of July holiday is hard to determine. I would imagine it’s a combination of all three.”

Michael and Meredith Shadwick, Spencer’s Grill, Tropical Moose, Honey Bee’s Biscuits + Good Eats: “The extreme heat really does impact our sales. It changes how much people buy and when/how they buy. At Spencer’s Grill, breakfast holds strong even on the hottest days, but lunch is much quieter until temperatures ease. At Tropical Moose, we see fewer midday lines in direct sun, and then we have a strong 7–9 p.m. surge once it’s more tolerable outside. At a certain temperature, people just don’t want to leave the A/C even for an icy treat. At Honey Bee’s, most of the seating is outdoors (though we’re refreshing our interior and will have more indoor seating starting Thursday). July is usually our busiest month, but with the extreme heat, we’re seeing a dip in in‑person orders and a surge in online and delivery sales. When the weather shifts from extreme heat or even extreme cold to something more comfortable, we always see a really big jump in foot traffic as people are eager to enjoy the outdoors.”

Natasha Kwan, Frida’s, Diego’s Cantina, Station No. 3, Bonito Bar: “The dew point, not the temperature, is the major factor on determining if we’ll have a busy or slow day. While some 100-degree days might seem like a breeze, a 93-degree day with a 77-degree dew point is absolutely stifling, which is what we’ve had a lot of this summer. Can’t wait for the weekend’s weather!”

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