Open this photo in gallery: After a strong first-quarter reporting season helped lift stocks, analyst estimates for second-quarter results have weakened.Jeenah Moon/Reuters

A rally that has taken U.S. stocks to record highs will be tested in the coming week by the kick-off of corporate earnings season and a key inflation report as investors hope to learn more about the economic fallout from tariffs.

The S&P 500 is little changed so far this week, but the benchmark stock index has surged 26 per cent since April to all-time high levels.

Stocks this week largely shrugged off President Donald Trump’s threats of more aggressive tariffs on over 20 countries set to take effect August 1. Trump also announced plans for higher levies on copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

“Investors are looking toward the end of the year into next year where fundamentals are better, and they are willing to look through some short-term uncertainty as they get there,” said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network.

After a strong first-quarter reporting season helped lift stocks, analyst estimates for second-quarter results have weakened. S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased profits by 5.8 per cent from the year-earlier period, down from an expectation of a 10.2 per cent gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES.

The percentage of S&P 500 companies beating consensus estimates rose to 78 per cent in the first quarter after the rate had declined the prior three quarters, Ned Davis Research analysts said.

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“Another reading in the upper 70s would suggest that companies have a grasp not only on tariffs, but also on the broader macro environment,” the Ned Davis analysts said in a note.

Reports from banks will dominate the week, including results from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Among the other major companies reporting next week are Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and 3M .

In focus will be whether executives indicate if they are able to forecast and make decisions in areas such as capital investment and hiring despite the still-shifting trade backdrop, Fasciano said.

“The uncertainty hasn’t gone away, but I’m curious to see how much of the uncertainty they feel they have a better understanding of in terms of longer-term plans,” Fasciano said.

The impact of tariffs will also be at issue with the consumer price index for June, due on Tuesday, which will shed light on inflation trends. CPI is expected to increase 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis, an acceleration from the prior month, according to economists polled by Reuters. A busy week of economic data will also be highlighted by monthly retail sales on Thursday.

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Investors are eager for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts, but central bank officials have cited worries that tariffs will drive inflation higher as reasons for holding off on changing monetary policy.

The S&P 500 is up nearly 7 per cent in 2025, just over halfway through the year. In the latest sign of positive stock momentum, Nvidia Corp this week became the first publicly traded company to hit US$4 trillion in market value, fueled by a massive run for AI chipmaker’s stock price.

Stocks have rebounded after plunging in April following Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of sweeping global tariffs.

This past Wednesday was expected to be a key deadline, marking the end of Trump’s pause on many of the harsh “reciprocal” tariffs he unveiled in April. This week, he launched an array of levies, many scheduled to take effect on August 1.

Still, most investors appear to be banking on the U.S. avoiding higher tariff rates as Washington strikes deals in coming weeks with trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

“That’s what the market has built in,” Saglimbene said. “If we don’t get that, then I think there is probably some risk that we would see some higher near-term volatility if the White House actually implements some of these aggressive tariff measures.”

Key Takeaways

Tariffs will be front and center when companies begin to report their second-quarter earnings results next week.

Tariffs could shrink margins, put pressure on profits, or prompt price increases.

Some sectors, like consumer cyclicals and basic materials, could see a major hit from tariffs, while others will be more insulated.

Investors are still trying to get a grip on tariffs’ impact on the economy and the stock market. As the second quarter’s earnings season gets underway next week, analysts will be laser-focused on how President Donald Trump’s import taxes are affecting corporate bottom lines.

So far, the impact of tariffs has been very muted when it comes to economic data on inflation, consumer spending, and business activity. That’s in part thanks to companies stockpiling inventories that will likely be affected earlier this year. However, firms in affected industries could see higher costs and tighter margins, and those with limited pricing power may be forced to absorb more of the tariffs than their counterparts with wider competitive advantages, which can pass more of those costs on to consumers. Analysts say second-quarter earnings results could show evidence of these trends.

Just as critical for market watchers over the next few weeks will be the resumption of forward earnings guidance, which many firms opted out of in the first quarter, when the policy outlook was changing rapidly.

The Trump administration recently extended its deadline for negotiations with its trading partners to Aug. 1. That means considerable uncertainty remains around the ultimate shape of US trading policy, but there will be plenty of discussion throughout earnings seasons about how companies are preparing for new levies, or how they are handling tariffs that have already been implemented. Here’s what investors need to know.

Watch for an Earnings Slowdown

Analysts expect earnings growth to slow somewhat over the year as tariffs take effect and begin to eat away at corporate balance sheets. Overall, they forecast 5% annual earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index in the second quarter, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. That’s down from 13% growth in the first quarter. Earnings growth hasn’t been that slow since the fourth quarter of 2023, according to FactSet. Analysts expect 9.4% earnings growth for the calendar year 2025, down from 11% growth in 2024.

That slowdown has implications for investors. “Now is a better time to be doing some profit-taking rather than put new money into the market,” says Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist for Morningstar. Still, earnings often surprise to the upside (and estimates are often revised down ahead of reporting), leading to beats that surpass early estimates. That was the case in the first quarter, when analysts expected 6.8% growth before companies began reporting.

Sector by Sector

That trend won’t be consistent from sector to sector, however. In a note to clients at the end of June, analysts from Goldman Sachs led by David Kostin said they expect a onetime boost to inflation caused by tariffs to weigh more heavily on cyclical sectors, which are sensitive to changes in the economic environment.

FactSet consensus data shows that analysts expect 26% year-over-year declines in earnings in the energy sector of the S&P 500 Index in the second quarter, along with 5.6% declines in the consumer discretionary sector and 3.7% declines in the basic materials sector.

In a bear case for tariffs, Morningstar’s equity research team expects the consumer cyclical and basic materials sectors to be harmed the most. Damien Conover, Morningstar’s director of equity research for North America, explained recently that retail and apparel companies could see a significant hit. “This is a very sweet spot for [tariff damage],” he says. “A very high percentage of that material is manufactured internationally, and [when] hit with tariffs, that’s going to bring down the valuations for these companies.”

Earnings in the communication services sector of the index, on the other hand, are expected to rise nearly 30% in the second quarter, according to FactSet estimates. Analysts are also looking for 16.0% growth in the information technology sector, 3.5% earnings growth in the healthcare sector and 4.5% growth in the utilities sector.

How Long Before Tariffs Are Felt?

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said they expect “the digestion of tariffs to be a gradual process” rather than a sudden shock to bottom lines. That tracks with other views on Wall Street. For instance, UBS economists don’t expect to see major changes in consumer price data until the July Consumer Price Index report, which will be released in August.

In a recent note to clients, Goldman’s analysts say larger firms in goods related industries appear to have built up more inventory than usual to help weather the impact of new taxes. Preliminary surveys show companies plan to absorb more of the new costs than initially expected. “Recent company commentary shows S&P 500 firms plan to use a combination of cost savings, supplier adjustments, and pricing to offset the impact of tariffs,” they wrote.

Keep an Eye on Guidance

In the first quarter, corporate earnings reports were noticeably light on guidance. Without concrete policy on trade in place, some companies said they weren’t confident enough in the outlook for the near and medium terms to give investors a sense of how the next few years could look.

Sekera thinks this trend could continue through the second-quarter earnings season. He warns that the details of the deals the Trump administration is negotiating this summer remain murky. “It’s still the same outstanding questions that we’ve had,” he says.

He points to FedEx FDX, which did not offer full-year guidance for 2026 when it reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings at the end of June, citing increased macroeconomic uncertainty. It did offer guidance for the upcoming quarter.

In her recent outlook, Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders writes that guidance (and earnings surprises) are likely to take on “heightened importance” over the next few months “as markets remain sensitive to forward-looking commentary, especially amid policy uncertainty and instability related to trade, tariffs, and interest rates.” In other words, big surprises from earnings season could mean big moves in the stock market.

Beyond Tariffs

While the situation around US trade policy is still evolving, Sekera says he’ll be focusing on the fundamentals. In the early days of earnings season, he’ll see whether big banks are bulking up their loan loss reserves—a sign that they expect the economy to slow. He’ll be watching semiconductor maker ASML Holding ASML for clues about demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure from mega-cap tech companies, which could give investors an early read on the AI landscape overall. Meanwhile, Pepsi’s PEP results could provide a window into how new weight-loss drugs are affecting the food and drink industry.

[NEW YORK] Major US banks are expected to report stronger profits next week, driven by buoyant trading and a modest rebound in investment banking.

When JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo kick off second-quarter earnings on Tuesday (Jul 15), investors will focus on their outlooks at a time when economic uncertainty over US tariff policies remains high.

“Things are looking good and we expect that most banks will beat expectations,” said Stephen Biggar, a banking analyst at Argus Research. “It is one of those quarters where no big surprises are expected and we are likely to see a continuation of trends.”

Investment banking activity has picked up in the second half of this quarter, and dealmakers are more optimistic about the rest of the year. That marks a turnaround from April, when an escalating trade war and geopolitical tensions derailed confidence and drove mergers and acquisitions to a 20-year low that month.

Betsy Graseck, a banking analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report last week: “We expect second-quarter investment banking revenues to be better than expected and management teams to point to pipelines building.”

Amid the market turmoil, Bank of America and Citigroup executives said last month that they expected market revenue to climb by mid-to-high single digit percentages in the second quarter. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said they “continue to expect the trading revenue to remain buoyant in the near future given the uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop”.

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Most of the major banks are expected to report a low-to-mid single digit percentage gain in net interest income (NII), or the difference between what they earn on loans and pay out for deposits. Lenders are also expected to set aside smaller amounts for potential souring loans, as the financial health of consumers and businesses remains resilient.

Credit quality among consumer and commercial borrowers is still robust, and even though loan demand is muted, it is starting to improve, analysts say.

“One of the biggest questions is: how sustainable is this loan growth,” said Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo. He sees industry loan growth rising to around 5 per cent, higher than earlier estimates of 3 per cent.

Banks are also expected to benefit from the deregulatory regime under US President Donald Trump. Lenders recently aced the Federal Reserve’s stress test and showed enough capital to withstand possible adverse scenarios. Investors will likely scrutinise banks’ plans to deploy excess capital after the lenders hiked dividends and some announced share buyback plans.

Here is what is likely to come from the six biggest US lenders.

JPMorgan Chase

The largest US lender is predicted to report a 5 per cent increase in earnings per share (EPS), according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Investors will take note of the bank’s outlook on NII, loan growth and investment banking.

Analysts are also watching for any developments in its work on stablecoins.

Bank of America (BOA)

BOA’s EPS is likely to inch up nearly 4 per cent when it reports earnings on July 16, LSEG estimates showed. NII is estimated to be higher by nearly 7 per cent.

However, its investment banking fees are forecast to slide to about US$1.2 billion, according to management commentary.

Citigroup

Analysts see Citigroup’s EPS improving by 5 per cent, fuelled by capital markets. Expenses and provisions may also exceed earlier estimates, Wells Fargo’s Mayo said. Citi is his top pick.

Wells Fargo

Operating expenses will decrease slightly because of shrinking personnel costs, analysts at Raymond James said. Loan loss provisions are expected to remain flat versus the first quarter, while loan balances are expected to increase slightly, analysts said.

The bank was recently released from a seven-year-long asset cap, and market participants are focused on its growth plans.

Goldman Sachs

Analysts said the Wall Street giant is likely to see a nearly 11 per cent increase in EPS, propelled by gains in investment banking and trading.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley’s EPS is estimated to increase over 7 per cent, with all eyes on management commentary on the burgeoning rebound for investment banking.

“After a relatively seamless CEO transition and a recalibration of strategic targets last January, CEO Ted Pick appears well-placed to flex franchise muscle and gain market share,” Ebrahim Poonawala, an analyst at Bofa wrote in a report. REUTERS

We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.

So, the natural question for Marker Therapeutics (NASDAQ:MRKR) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company’s annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the ‘cash burn’. We’ll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.

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How Long Is Marker Therapeutics’ Cash Runway?

A cash runway is defined as the length of time it would take a company to run out of money if it kept spending at its current rate of cash burn. As at March 2025, Marker Therapeutics had cash of US$14m and no debt. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$13m. That means it had a cash runway of around 13 months as of March 2025. That’s not too bad, but it’s fair to say the end of the cash runway is in sight, unless cash burn reduces drastically. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

NasdaqCM:MRKR Debt to Equity History July 11th 2025

View our latest analysis for Marker Therapeutics

How Well Is Marker Therapeutics Growing?

Marker Therapeutics reduced its cash burn by 13% during the last year, which points to some degree of discipline. And arguably the operating revenue growth of 72% was even more impressive. It seems to be growing nicely. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Hard Would It Be For Marker Therapeutics To Raise More Cash For Growth?

Marker Therapeutics seems to be in a fairly good position, in terms of cash burn, but we still think it’s worthwhile considering how easily it could raise more money if it wanted to. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By looking at a company’s cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year’s cash burn.

Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: ANZ ) is around $30 per share. But what are ANZ shares really worth?

How to get to an share valuation is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to ANZ Banking Group, of course.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) are also very popular bank shares on the ASX.

Before we walk through two valuation models you might use to answer the question yourself, let’s consider why investors like bank shares in the first place.

Alongside the tech and industrial sectors, the financials/banking industry is a favourite for Australian investors. The largest banks, including Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank operate in an ‘oligopoly’.

And while large international banks, such as HSBC, have tried to encroach on our ‘Big Four’, the success of foreign competitors has been very limited. In Australia, ASX bank shares are particularly favoured by dividend investors looking for franking credits.

Using the PE ratio for valuations

It’s likely that if you have been actively investing in shares for more than a few years you will have heard about the PE ratio. The price-earnings ratio or ‘PER’ compares a company’s share price (P) to its most recent full-year earnings per share (E). If you bought a coffee shop for $100,000 and it made $10,000 of profit last year, that’s a price-earnings ratio of 10x ($100,000 / $10,000). ‘Earnings’ is just another word for profit. So, the PE ratio is basically saying ‘price-to-yearly-profit multiple’.

The PE ratio is a very general tool but it’s not perfect so it’s important to use it with other techniques (see below) to back it up. That said, one of the general ratio strategies even professional analysts will use to value a share is to compare the company’s PE ratio with its competitors to try to determine if the share price is excessive or cheap. It’s akin to saying: ‘if all of the other banking sector stocks are priced at a PE of X, this one should be too’. We’ll go one step further than that in this article. We’ll apply the principle of mean reversion and multiply the profits per share (E) by the sector average PE ratio (E x sector PE) to calculate what an average company would be worth.

If we take the ANZ share price today ($30.38), together with the earnings (aka profits) per share data from its FY24 financial year ($2.15), we can calculate the company’s PE ratio to be 14.1x. That compares to the banking sector average PE of 19x.

Next, take the profits per share (EPS) ($2.15) and multiply it by the average PE ratio for ANZ’s sector (Banking). This results in a ‘sector-adjusted’ PE valuation of $41.27.

ANZ share price: dividend valuation

A dividend discount model, or DDM, is a more effective method of valuing companies in the banking sector — when it’s done carefully and thoughtfully.

DDM valuation models are among the oldest valuation techniques used on Wall Street and even here in Australia. A DDM model relies on the most recent full-year dividends (e.g. from last 12 months or LTM) or forecast dividends for the coming year. It then assumes the dividends remain consistent or grow at a modest rate for the forecast period (e.g. 5 years or indefinitely). The only additional input required is a ‘risk’ rate (e.g. 7%) which is explained further below.

To work out the valuation, use this formula: Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate). It’s good practice to run the model with a few different growth and risk assumptions, then take the average valuation. This approach helps to account for uncertainty and improves the reliability of the valuation.

To simplify this DDM, we will assume last year’s dividend payment ($1.66) increases at a consistent rate each year.

Next, we determine the ‘risk’ rate or expected return rate. This is the rate at which we discount the future dividend payments back to today’s dollars. A higher ‘risk’ rate results in a lower share price valuation.

We’ve used a blended rate for dividend growth and a risk rate between 6% and 11%, then averaged the results.

This approach yields a valuation of ANZ shares of $35.10. However, using an ‘adjusted’ dividend payment of $1.69 per share, the valuation goes to $35.74. The expected dividend valuation compares to ANZ Banking Group’s share price of $30.38.

Growth rate 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% Risk rate 6.00% $42.25 $56.33 $84.50 7.00% $33.80 $42.25 $56.33 8.00% $28.17 $33.80 $42.25 9.00% $24.14 $28.17 $33.80 10.00% $21.13 $24.14 $28.17 11.00% $18.78 $21.13 $24.14

Key summary

Please be mindful that these valuation methods are just the starting point of the research and valuation process. Please remember that. Banks are very complex companies and if the GFC of 2008/2009 taught investors anything, it’s that even the ‘best’ banks can go out of business and take shareholders down with them.

If you are looking at ANZ Banking Group shares and considering an investment, take your time to learn more about the bank’s growth strategy. For example, is it pursuing more lending (i.e. interest income) or more non-interest income (fees from financial advice, investment management, etc.)? Then, take a close look at economic indicators such as unemployment, house prices and consumer sentiment. Finally, it’s always important to make an assessment of the management team.