Bill Gates predicted 20 years ago that Apple would not be able to maintain the iPod’s success due to the inevitable rise of smartphones
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Bill Gates predicted 20 years ago that Apple would not be able to maintain the iPod’s success due to the inevitable rise of smartphones
In 2005, Bill Gates predicted the end of the iPod era. Today, tech titans are betting on the next big thing: artificial intelligence. Those who cling too tightly to yesterday’s triumphs risk being outpaced by tomorrow’S breakthroughs, says Andrew Keen. The smartphone didn’t just replace the iPod; it redefined how we communicate, work, and entertain ourselves, Keen says. The coming years will further blur the lines between human insight and machine intelligence, he says. For more on this story, visit CNN.com/soulmatestories and follow Andrew Keen on Twitter @Andrew_Keen and on Facebook @SoulMatters. The full transcript of his interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung can be found at: http://www.famb.org/news/features/2014/05/09/08/18/18-08/08-09-08-18-18/stories/iPod-end-of-the-ipod-era.html.
Technological leadership demands foresight—and Bill Gates proved it two decades ago. Today, as AI reshapes every corner of our lives, his 2005 predictions remind us that yesterday’s triumphs can vanish faster than you can say “download.”
Two Bold Predictions from 2005
I’ll never forget untangling the white earbuds of my own iPod back in middle school—those click-wheel playlists felt like magic. Yet, even as millions of us clung to our iPods, one of tech’s luminaries was already looking past them. In May 2005, during an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Bill Gates foresaw two seismic shifts:
Convergence of Devices
“Increasingly, multiple features will be packed into a single device, and that will call for sophisticated software,” Gates remarked. Indeed, within two years, Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android transformed our phones into pocket-sized computers. Global smartphone shipments jumped from 122 million units in 2007 to 1.43 billion in 2020, showcasing consumers’ rapid embrace of multifunctionality¹.
The End of the iPod Era
Gates drew a parallel to Apple’s own history: after the Macintosh had once dominated, the company lost ground before mounting a comeback. “No matter how great Apple is, the iPod’s lead won’t last,” he predicted. He was right—by 2014 Apple discontinued its last standalone iPod Nano and Classic², funneling creativity and resources into the App Store ecosystem. Since its 2008 launch, the App Store has generated over $500 billion for developers.
These insights didn’t translate into Microsoft’s dominance in mobile—Windows Phone never captured more than a sliver of the market—but they underscored an essential truth: consumers crave innovation and portability in one package.
Did you know? The first iPhone required five separate chips to handle the functions of a typical mobile phone, music player, and internet device, a feat unthinkable just a few years earlier.
The AI Revolution on the Horizon
Fast forward two decades, and the tech titans are once again betting on the next big thing: artificial intelligence. Recall how smartphones seemed unimaginable before 2007? Now, Gartner projects that by 2025, 75% of enterprise applications will incorporate AI—everything from automated customer support to real-time language translation. Microsoft’s Copilot, Google’s Gemini, and OpenAI’s ChatGPT are racing to define tomorrow’s digital assistants.
I recently attended a McKinsey webinar where an analyst noted, “AI isn’t just a feature; it’s fast becoming the backbone of productivity tools.” Whether it’s Siri learning to anticipate your schedule or social platforms using machine learning to curate your feed, the coming years will further blur the lines between human insight and machine intelligence.
Looking back, Gates’s 2005 foresight teaches us that technological dominance is rarely permanent. The smartphone didn’t just replace the iPod; it redefined how we communicate, work, and entertain ourselves. As we stand on the cusp of an AI-driven era, one question looms: which company will harness this power most effectively? Whatever the answer, one thing is certain—those who cling too tightly to yesterday’s triumphs risk being outpaced by tomorrow’s breakthroughs.
Footnotes
“Smartphone Shipments Worldwide,” IDC, https://www.idc.com/promo/smartphone-market-share “Apple Discontinues iPod Classic,” Reddit, https://www.reddit.com/r/indieheads/comments/umncyh/apple_has_officially_discontinued_its_last_ipod/
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