
Bob Diamond Sees Great Environment for Smaller US Banks
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Bob Diamond Sees Great Environment for Smaller US Banks
I think we’ll see a turnaround in in dealmaking and advisory in the second half of the year. I don’t think Wall Street will repeat the kind of trading performance they had, which was kind of like Christmas in the first quarter for four trading desks with all the volatility. So no big warning signs. I think the as you said, the report from Citi that it long loss provisions are a bit higher is not surprising. I would be very surprised if they’re more than a bitHigher. An okay environment for the big banks or for the smaller banks as well. Well, it’s a great environment for smaller banks. And as you know, we’re very focused on regional and community banks. We’ve done our first close in in a investment strategy for that for that sector. We think that the four and a half thousand regional andCommunity banks, one, they’re incredibly important to the economy. They do over half the lending to small businesses and family owned businesses. Many of the smaller, more private community banks that are so important to their communities are frankly just too small to succeed with higher technology costs, higher regulatory costs and higher compliance cost.
Let’s just recap things. Where are we right now? Big, steady thousand foot view of the banking sector in America. How are things shaping up? You know, I think I think just kind of the back and forth and on the one hand and on the other hand from Herman suggests pretty much my view, which is kind of a balance. You know, I think we’ll see a turnaround in in dealmaking and advisory in the second half of the year. That was a bit slower than people expected in the first half. I don’t think Wall Street will repeat the kind of trading performance they had, which was it was kind of like Christmas in the first quarter for four trading desks with all the volatility. But I think, you know, I think it’s it’s a good environment. So no big warning signs. I think the as you said, the report from Citi that it long loss provisions are a bit higher is not surprising. I would be very surprised if they’re more than a bit higher. An okay environment for the big banks or for the smaller banks as well. Well, it’s a great environment for the smaller banks. And as you know, we’re very focused on regional and community banks. We’ve done our first close in in a investment strategy for that for that sector. We think that the four and a half thousand regional and community banks, one, they’re incredibly important to the economy. They do over half of the lending to small businesses and family owned businesses, but four and a half thousand is probably the wrong number in many of the smaller, more private community banks that are so important to their communities are frankly just too small to succeed with higher technology costs, higher regulatory costs, higher compliance cost. And Jonathan, what we’re seeing is with with a focus of our our banking expertise, our integration expertise, the CEOs of these banks want to take part in in consolidation. The opportunity to increase our already through cost synergies, particularly on instate transactions, is is terrific. So I think in addition to that, as you look at the go forward business opportunity, we have higher rates. They’re probably trending somewhat lower, but not too aggressively and very high demand for credit. So the environment could not be better for a strong regional bank today. Bob, we often hear that tariffs and rates act as overhangs on potential M & A and consolidation. But stepping back, there’s also a tremendous amount of disruption going on at an industry level. Air is disrupting many industries. You still have this transition in terms of office and real estate, post-COVID. You have the energy transition and we’ll see what happens with reshoring. So would you argue that disruption and of itself is going to lead to more industry consolidation and M & A across various sectors? Yeah, I don’t think that’s that’s a bad hypothesis, particularly where they are. I think looking at financial services again, which is kind of our expertise and our focus, it’s nothing but positive in terms of in the first stage, greater efficiency and even where there has been that disruption in the US, kind of the US economy around uncertainty and tariffs. We have a couple of broker dealers that we’re invested in overseas, Panmure Gordon in the UK and Kepler Chevrolet and Paris based, but really focused on Europe for equity sales, trading and research. They both had record earnings in the first quarter for flows from US investors into the UK equity market and into the European equity market. It’s incredible to me every time we see these disruptions, it’s like the markets are reacting almost before we’re ready to do the analysis. So those are first quarter numbers at pair and more. Gordon and Kepler Chevrolet and their records for the firms in terms of flows from US investors into the UK and into Europe. So it’s amazing how agile the investors are. I was going to follow up and ask you about that because I know you have a very global experience throughout your banking career, and it’s also just stunning to think about how soon the January American Exceptionalism thesis turned into Sell America after Liberation Day. Do you see those trends in terms of flows and sentiment moving away from US markets continuing, or is it more of a kind of a near-term blip? I think there are reasons to continue. So one of the reasons is it’s been a big, big divergence almost since 2008 and a great financial crisis, certainly in banks, but really in equities in general. The outperformance of U.S. equity markets has been very, very clear relative to the UK and Europe. So you had a you had a bounce coming. And I think one of the catalysts for that is this administration’s kind of gave a a boot in the butt for the Europeans to say we really have to focus on spending, we really have to focus on private sector, we really have to focus on the economy growing. And I think the attitude change across Europe and the attitude change in the UK toward private sector success, business profitability has been positive for them. So I think the US is still like the leading economy. It’s so, you know, the financial services industry is so deep, it’s just such an impressive machine. It’s not a negative on the US necessarily. I think once we work through the uncertainty around tariffs, we’ll see the strength. But a bounce in Europe and a bounce in the UK was coming. Do you still see the policy mix from this White House as pro risk pro-growth? I think I think. To me, Jonathan, the single thing that investors are looking for right now, what is not one thing. But if I if I picked one out at certainty and I think, you know, calming down the situation with us and China would be a very big part of that. So I think the announcement today, if if we move forward with solving some of those situations, I mean, keep in mind, if you go back like ten decades, then, you know, tariffs were like two and a half percent on average. They got up to 25 or 30% with all of the all of the noise. If they settle around five or 6%. You know, I think we have you know, we have confidence again and we have certainty again. I think we’ll bring we’ll have deal making come back. So I think this is a big moment. And I think what’s been recognized is that China actually has some pretty strong cards. Rare earths is is one of them. But, you know, as you look at the latest numbers, China still had a increase in in exports. Exports to the US were down 30%, but exports to the rest of the world were up 11%. So overall, their exports were up more than 20% to Vietnam, Right. So less than 10% of their exports are to the US today. Dan, this is something you talked about The last few months have revealed the leverage that the Chinese have this time around, maybe in a way that wasn’t really enforced several years ago in the president’s first term. Yeah, absolutely. And I think there might be some positives that redirect and reorder some critical security based industries technology, pharma meds, medical supplies, etc.. But I think the theme that I’m just hearing from Bob is one we just talked about with Ed earlier, which is this unintended consequences. We’ve given a kick to Europe to start spending and maybe in many ways created better growth opportunities for them that they wouldn’t have taken on earlier, much like the deep sea analog absorb. Does that mean that you’re more focused on the US as everyone starts to look elsewhere, that maybe there’s better opportunities here now relative to the last three or four years? I think the opportunities in the UK, in Europe are there. But Jonathan, one of the things we felt in Atlas Merchant Capital was one of our real competitive advantages in financial services is we’re focused on the UK, in Europe. In the US, prior to COVID, we had done just as many investments in the UK and Europe as we’ve done in the US since COVID has been us, us, us, because that’s where the opportunities are. So I would say it differently. I hope we continue to see opportunities here and US regional and community banks writ large. That’s a phenomenal opportunity in the US. But if you give us more opportunities for growth in the UK and Europe, then Atlas Merchant Capital is going to be very, very busy and that’s the direction it looks like we’re going in. Just give us a number quickly again, what are we at now? Regional banks in this country for four and a half, four and a half thousand, and it’s probably the wrong number. And you’ve got it’s coming down to what I think three years from today, market down will be 1 to 2000.