Confidence among the Bay State’s employers saw a major upward swing in May but remained well into pessimistic territory, according to the Associated Industries of Massachusetts‘ newest monthly Business Confidence Index.

The commonwealth’s employers were as doubtful of the future as they’ve been for years this past April, when confidence fell to a post-pandemic low of 41.5 points, but business sentiment rebounded by 6.3 points through May to land at a less-pessimistic 47.8 points, as executives and hiring managers apparently grow used to the on-and-off nature of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, the May BCI shows.

A reading below 50 represents a pessimistic outlook, according to AIM.

According to Sara Johnson, who chairs the AIM Board of Economic Advisors which oversees the BCI, it’s almost as if everyone is holding their breath in anticipation of what may come next.

“Employers and consumers alike appear to have settled into a wait-and-see period as the administration conducts trade negotiations with individual nations,” she said.

Though employers are feeling more confident then they were just a month ago, Michael Goodman, a professor of public policy at UMass Dartmouth and a BEA member, said that underlying uncertainty about what sort of trade policies may come from Washington is preventing employers from feeling positive about the future.

“Uncertainty is the enemy of confidence,” he said. “Federal actions that threaten Medicaid funding, reduce support for [research and development], and discourage immigration are weighing heavily on the Commonwealth’s economic and fiscal outlook.”

Businesses overall were feeling confident as recently as this past February, when AIM reported a BCI of 50.4 points, which was down from a high of 57.7 points seen in November of 2024.

Despite breaking a full quarter’s worth of downward slide, May’s BCI represents the third month in a row with a pessimistic outlook and came in 5.5 points lower than May of last year. The rebound seen over the last month, according to AIM, “mirrored a similar recovery of US consumer confidence from an almost five-year low as perceptions of the economy and labor market improved.”

Still, according to a business executive cited in the Index, Trump’s tariffs remain top of mind for employers wondering whether now is the right time to expand or hold their ground, and “along with the known tariffs is the destabilization of the government as a whole.”

AIM surveys over 140 Bay State businesses to produce their Business Confidence Index, the first of which was published in July of 1991. According to AIM, business confidence hit historic highs in 1997 and 1998, with two months in either year showing 68.5% confidence, and hit a low in February of 2009, when it was 33.3%.