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Who is Liberal leader Mark Carney, Canada’s new prime minister?
Mark Carney was the first non-British person to take on the top banking role in the central bank’s more than 300-year history. He had previously steered his home country through the 2008 financial crash as the governor of the Bank of Canada. The son of a high-school principal, he went to Harvard University on scholarship where he played the most Canadian of sports, ice hockey. He earned his PhD in economics from Oxford University, where he wrote his thesis on whether domestic competition can make an economy more nationally competitive. He got British citizenship in 2018, but recently said he intends to relinquish his British and Irish citizenship because he thinks the prime minister should only hold Canadian citizenship. He is credited with modernising the Bank, appearing much more frequently in the media than his predecessor. He warned that an independent Scotland might have to surrender powers to the UK if it wanted to continue using the pound. In the wake of the leave vote, after David Cameron resigned as prime minister and the pound plunged, he addressed the nation in a bid to reassure the country that the financial system would operate as normal.
29 April 2025 Share Save Ben King and Robin Levinson King BBC News Reporting from London, UK and Toronto, Canada Share Save
Watch: Key moments on Mark Carney’s journey from banker to Canada’s PM
The former Bank of England boss, Mark Carney, has won Canada’s election to become the country’s next prime minister. He was sworn into the position last month after his predecessor resigned, but called for a snap election that saw Canadians head to the polls on Monday. Carney was the first non-British person to take on the top banking role in the central bank’s more than 300-year history. He had previously steered his home country through the 2008 financial crash as the governor of the Bank of Canada. Unlike most PM-hopefuls, Carney had never held political office. Still, he handily won the Liberal Party contest to replace outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in early March, and has now been elected by the people. He had touted his experience handling global economic crises, hoping Canadians will see him as the leader mostly likely to stand up to US President Donald Trump who has launched a trade war on his northern neighbour.
Early life and childhood
Although Carney has travelled the globe, working in places like New York, London and Tokyo, he was born in the remote northern town of Fort Smith, in the Northwest Territories. With three out of four grandparents hailing from County Mayo in Ireland, Carney holds both Irish and Canadian citizenship. He got British citizenship in 2018, but recently said he intends to relinquish his British and Irish citizenship because he thinks the prime minister should only hold Canadian citizenship. The son of a high-school principal, he went to Harvard University on scholarship where he played the most Canadian of sports, ice hockey. In 1995, he earned his PhD in economics from Oxford University, where he wrote his thesis on whether domestic competition can make an economy more nationally competitive – a subject that is sure to come up as Canada works to make internal trade easier in the face of American tariffs. “Mark was an extraordinarily versatile student, rapidly mastering new approaches, perspectives and challenges,” recalled his former doctoral supervisor Meg Meyer, in a press release sent by the university after Carney won the leadership race. “These skills will undoubtedly serve him well as he leads Canada during these turbulent times.”
Previous experience
In 2003, he left the private sector to join the Bank of Canada as a deputy governor, then worked for the Department of Finance as senior associate deputy minister. In 2007, he was appointed governor of the Bank of Canada, shortly before global markets crashed, sending the country into a deep recession. His leadership at the central bank is widely praised for helping the country avoid the worst of the crisis. Although central bankers are notoriously circumspect, he was open about his intentions to keep interest rates low for at least a year, after dramatically cutting them. That move would be credited for helping businesses keep investing even when the markets sank. He would go on to take a similar approach when he was lured back to London – this time as the governor of the Bank of England. He is credited with modernising the Bank, appearing much more frequently in the media than his predecessor. In 2015, the Bank reduced the number of interest rate meetings from 12 to eight a year, and started publishing minutes alongside the announcement of interest rate decisions. Interest rates were anchored at historic lows when he took over, but he introduced a policy of “forward guidance”, where the Bank would try to further support the economy and encourage lending by pledging not to raise rates until unemployment fell below 7%. Confusion about this policy saw an MP compare him to an “unreliable boyfriend”, a moniker that stuck around long after the original controversy died down. Unlike previous governors who generally kept a low profile, he made controversial interventions ahead of two big constitutional referendums. In 2014 he warned that an independent Scotland might have to surrender powers to the UK if it wanted to continue using the pound. Before the Brexit referendum, he warned that a vote to leave the EU could spark a recession. In the wake of the leave vote, after David Cameron resigned as prime minister and the pound plunged, he addressed the nation in a bid to reassure the country that the financial system would operate as normal. He described it as his “toughest day” on the job, but said the contingency plans the Bank put in place worked effectively. The Bank later cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% – and restarted its quantitative easing programme to support the economy. His final week in March 2020 saw the start of the acutest phase of the Covid pandemic – the Bank cut rates by 0.5% to support the economy, and Carney told the country that the economic shock “should be temporary”.
Getty Images Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve (left) and Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of England, walk the grounds during the Jackson Hole economic symposium in 2019
Crossing paths with Trump
Carney’s time at the Bank gave him plenty of experience dealing with Donald Trump – who has not only imposed steep tariffs on Canada since returning to office in January, but has also suggested that America should annex its less powerful neighbour. From 2011-18, Carney was chair of the Financial Stability Board, which co-ordinated the work of regulatory authorities around the world, giving him a key role in the global response to the policies of the first Trump presidency. He was a regular at the G20 meetings, with a pitch-side view of Trump on the global stage. Although he kept his thoughts on the US president to himself at the time, he has been much more frank in recent days. After Trump made repeated comments about making Canada the 51st state, he was less diplomatic, comparing him to the villain in the Harry Potter books. “When you think about what’s at stake in these ridiculous, insulting comments of the president, of what we could be, I view this as the sort of Voldemort of comments,” Carney said. “Like I will not even repeat it, but you know what I’m talking about.” He seems prepared to dig in his heels as the trade war continues, noting he would continue to impose counter-tariffs “until the Americans show us respect … and [make] credible and reliable commitments to free and fair trade”.
Political ambitions
The Liberals have reportedly courted him for a decade, but until recently the 60-year-old had brushed off the idea. “Why don’t I become a circus clown?” he told a reporter in 2012. Things changed, however, when Trudeau stepped down in January after his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland quit his cabinet, sparking a party squabble that, coupled with Trudeau’s tanking poll numbers, led the prime minister to announce his resignation. Reports suggested Trudeau had intended to replace Freeland with Carney in the finance post. Freeland – a personal friend – even ran against him in the race to replace Trudeau. But Carney won by a landslide, pitching himself as the best equipped to take on Trump, who has imposed steep tariffs on Canadians goods. “I know how to manage crises,” Carney said during a leadership debate late last month. “In a situation like this, you need experience in terms of crisis management, you need negotiating skills.” Still, his time in the world of finance has opened him up to criticism from political rivals in Canada. The Conservatives have accused Carney of lying about his role in moving investment firm Brookfield Asset Management’s head office from Toronto to New York, though Carney says the recent formal decision to relocate the firm was made after he quit the board. They have also pushed him to disclose his financial assets over conflict-of-interest concerns. Carney has placed his assets in a blind trust and has said he is in full compliance with existing conflict-of-interest rules, but has been pressed for more transparency.
Where does Carney stand on issues?
Canada Election Highlights: Mark Carney Wins New Term as Prime Minister
Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada won a new term on Monday night, a remarkable turnaround for his Liberal Party. Canada’s elections agency said it would stop tallying votes for a few hours early Tuesday, leaving unanswered the question of whether the Liberals had managed to clinch a majority in the House of Commons. A minority government would require support from other parties to pass legislation and would be weaker and less stable than a majority. But what was clear was that Canadians had opted for Mr. Carney, an economist who was running in national elections for the first time in his life, with Mr. Trump and his impact on Canada’s economy on their mind. For the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, the party’s stinging defeat was compounded by the fact that he lost his seat, which he had held continuously for 20 years, to the Liberal candidate. The election has been remarkable in many ways, with candidates and many voters describing it as the most important vote in their lifetimes. It was dominated by Mr.Trump and his relentless focus on Canada, America’s closest ally and trading partner.
Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada won a new term on Monday night, a remarkable turnaround for his Liberal Party, which surged in popularity as President Trump took an increasingly aggressive stance toward the country.
Early Tuesday morning and after an all-night count, Canada’s elections agency said it would stop tallying votes for a few hours and resume at 9:30 a.m. Eastern — leaving unanswered the question of whether the Liberals had managed to narrowly clinch a majority of seats in the House of Commons. A minority government would require support from other parties to pass legislation and would be weaker and less stable than a majority.
But what was clear was that Canadians had opted for Mr. Carney, an economist who was running in national elections for the first time in his life, with Mr. Trump and his impact on Canada’s economy on their mind.
The centerpiece of Mr. Carney’s acceptance speech early Tuesday morning was Canada’s response to Mr. Trump’s policies.
“As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water,” he said. “President Trump is trying to break us so he can own us. That will never happen.” He warned Canadians that the road ahead would be difficult and might require sacrifices.
Image Canada’s elections agency said it would stop tallying votes for a few hours early Tuesday, leaving unanswered the question of whether the Liberals had managed to clinch a majority in the House of Commons. Credit… Cole Burston for The New York Times
The Conservative Party had been handily leading in polls until March when Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods took effect and Mr. Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister and leader of the Liberals. For the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, the party’s stinging defeat was compounded by the fact that he lost his seat, which he had held continuously for 20 years, to the Liberal candidate.
When Mr. Poilievre conceded early Tuesday morning, he said that he would remain as party leader. The Conservative caucus can remove him from that post, as it did to the party’s two previous leaders after it failed to form a government.
The election has been remarkable in many ways, with candidates and many voters describing it as the most important vote in their lifetimes.
It was dominated by Mr. Trump and his relentless focus on Canada, America’s closest ally and trading partner. He imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, pushing the country toward a recession, and repeatedly threatened to annex it as the 51st state. Even as Canadians were heading to the polls on Monday morning, he repeated that desire, arguing on social media that it would bring economic and military benefits.
Mr. Carney, 60, a seasoned economist and policymaker who promoted himself as the anti-Trump candidate and centered his campaign on dealing with the United States, ultimately benefited from the American president’s actions.
Image Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, lost his seat as his party lost the election. Credit… Amber Bracken for The New York Times
Mr. Poilievre, 45, and the Conservatives had been dominating polls for years, building a platform against the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau around the argument that they had dragged Canada into prolonged economic malaise.
But they watched their double-digit lead rapidly evaporate after Mr. Trump’s aggressiveness toward Canada and Mr. Trudeau’s resignation.
Canadians heading to the polls were preoccupied both with the country’s relationship with its neighbor to the south and with the state of the economy at home. Affordability worries, primarily over housing, were top of mind, opinion surveys conducted before the election showed.
But Canada’s choice on Monday also came as a kind of referendum against Mr. Trump and the way he has been treating America’s allies and its trading partners.
It’s the second major international election since Mr. Trump came to power, after Germany, and Canada’s handling of the rupture in the relationship with the United States is being closely watched around the world.
Image Canada’s choice on Monday also came as a kind of referendum against President Trump and the way he has been treating America’s allies and its trading partners. Credit… Pat Kane for The New York Times
The election also highlighted that Mr. Trump’s brand of conservative politics can turn toxic for conservatives elsewhere if they are seen as being too aligned with his ideological and rhetorical style. Mr. Poilievre, who railed against “radical woke ideology,” pledged to defund Canada’s national broadcaster and said he would cut foreign aid, seemed to have lost centrist voters, pre-election polls suggested.
For Mr. Carney, Monday’s victory marked an astonishing moment in his rapid rise in Canada’s political establishment since entering the race to replace Mr. Trudeau in January.
A political novice but policy-making veteran, Mr. Carney conveyed a measured, serious tone and defiance toward Mr. Trump’s aggressive overtures, helping to sway voters who had been contemplating supporting the Conservatives, according to polls and some individual voters. And his politics as a pragmatist and a centrist seemed to better align with Canada’s mood after a decade of Mr. Trudeau’s progressive agenda.
There was ample evidence on Monday that Mr. Carney’s personality and background had boosted the Liberals. He is a Harvard- and Oxford-educated economist who served as governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 global financial crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit. He later went on to serve on corporate boards and became a leading voice on climate-conscious investment.
The road ahead for Mr. Carney and his new government will be hard. For starters, he will need to engage with Mr. Trump and his unpredictable attitude toward Canada and discuss fraught issues, including trade and security.
And he will need to show voters that his economic policy credentials can truly be put to use to improve Canada’s slow economic growth and persistently high unemployment.
In the early hours of Tuesday, amid celebrations, Mr. Carney said he was ready for the challenge. “We will fight back with everything we have to get the best deal for Canada,” he said. “We will build an independent future for our great country.”
Now Donald Trump tells Mark Carney he wants Canada to become the 51st U.S. state
Liberal Leader Mark Carney faces criticism after details emerged about his conversation with Donald Trump, where Trump raised the idea of Canada becoming a U.S. state. Carney initially downplayed the annexation discussion, leading to accusations of dishonesty from other party leaders. Carney firmly rejected the proposal, emphasizing Canada’s sovereignty and stating, “We will never, ever, in any way, shape or form be part of the United States” Trump’s comments since then have only fueled more controversy. On Wednesday, he told reporters in the Oval Office that Canada would “cease to exist” without the U.K., and threatened to raise auto tariffs on Canada, saying, “I really don’t want cars from Canada… they’re paying 25 percent, but that could go up” Carney quickly responded, saying his government had already prepared $2.2 billion in support for sectors likely to be hit by new tariffs. “He wakes up in the morning and even his people don’t know what he’s going to say,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford joked.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to him last month about the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state. Carney firmly rejected the proposal, emphasizing Canada’s sovereignty and stating, “We will never, ever, in any way, shape or form be part of the United States” .
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What really happened during the Mark Carney Trump call?
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Why are other party leaders criticizing Mark Carney over the Trump call?
How did Trump respond after the Mark Carney Trump call?
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How is Carney trying to use Trump’s comments to his advantage?
What’s happening on the ground in Winnipeg and across Manitoba?
Liberal Leader Mark Carney is under pressure after new details surfaced about his recent conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump. The, which was initially described as “cordial,” has turned into a major election issue just days before Canadians vote on April 28.According to a CBC/Radio-Canada report citing confidential sources, Trump once again raised the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state during a phone call on March 28 — a detail Carney hadn’t mentioned when he first spoke to reporters.At first, Carney told reporters in Montreal that Trump was respectful of Canada’s sovereignty. But after reporters pressed him on Thursday in Coquitlam, B.C., Carney admitted Trump did, in fact, bring up annexation during their conversation.”He absolutely did,” Carney said. “The president has things he keeps coming back to, but he treated me as the prime minister of a sovereign nation.”Carney insisted he was truthful in his original account, saying he made it clear to Trump that Canada would never agree to becoming a U.S. state. “I’m not even going to say the word he used about my predecessor,” he added, referring to Trump’s past jabs at former prime minister Justin Trudeau, whom Trump mockingly called the “governor” of America’s next state.NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh didn’t hold back. Speaking in Winnipeg, Singh accused Carney of hiding the truth from Canadians.”He said Trump respected our sovereignty, but now it turns out Trump talked about making Canada a U.S. state,” Singh said. “If he’s not honest about a phone call, how can we trust him with the details of a negotiation?”Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet echoed the criticism, calling Carney’s original description of the call a political “stunt.” Blanchet argued it was an attempt to boost his image as a strong negotiator. “It appears that the call was not what had been described afterwards,” Blanchet said in Dorval, Que.Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre went even further during a rally in Saskatoon. He accused Carney of lying to Canadians to boost his election chances. “If they’re lying about this, they’ll lie about inflation, taxes, housing costs, and crime too,” Poilievre said.Trump, for his part, posted on Truth Social shortly after the March 28 call, describing it as “an extremely productive call.””We agree on many things,” Trump wrote, “and will be meeting immediately after Canada’s upcoming election to work on elements of politics, business, and other factors that will end up being great for both the United States and Canada.”But Trump’s comments since then have only fueled more controversy. On Wednesday, he told reporters in the Oval Office that Canada would “cease to exist” without the United States. He also claimed that Trudeau once privately admitted as much — a claim Trudeau has not confirmed.Trump further threatened to raise auto tariffs on Canada, saying, “I really don’t want cars from Canada… they’re paying 25 percent, but that could go up.”Carney quickly responded to Trump’s threats, saying they highlight the need for strong leadership. Speaking Thursday, Carney said his government had already prepared $2 billion in industry support for sectors likely to be hit by new U.S. tariffs.”The president’s comments yesterday just underscore how important the choice is for Canadians on Monday,” Carney said. “Who can stand up to President Trump? Who can build a stronger Canada?”Ontario Premier Doug Ford also weighed in during an event in Toronto. “Sometimes, I think the cheese slips off the cracker with this guy,” Ford joked, referring to Trump’s unpredictable behavior. “He wakes up in the morning and even his people don’t know what he’s going to say.”Former chief trade negotiator Steve Verheul, who served from 2017 to 2021, said Canada faces tough negotiations if Trump wins another term, but stressed it’s too early to give up on securing a better deal. “The U.S. market will be back,” Verheul said during a Public Policy Forum event in Toronto.Meanwhile, the campaign trail is heating up in Manitoba. Carney held a rally in Winnipeg Centre, a riding currently held by NDP MP Leah Gazan.Thomas Naaykens, running for the Liberals in Kildonan–St. Paul against Conservative incumbent Raquel Dancho, kicked off the event.Among the crowd at the Pyramid Cabaret was Laura Forsythe and her daughter Harris. Forsythe, who had attended an NDP event the night before, said she still chose to vote Liberal. “Carney managed crises before, like Brexit. I think he’s the right person now,” she said.Her 13-year-old daughter Harris agreed, saying, “We need someone who won’t roll over to former allies turning against us.”A fresh report from Winnipeg’s Probe Research shows the NDP has been trailing the Liberals and Conservatives since February but might still hold onto their two seats.According to 338Canada, the latest projections show the Liberals and Conservatives each winning six seats in Manitoba, while the NDP is expected to keep two.
Experts react: What the Liberal Party’s win in Canada means for the world
Prime Minister Mark Carney will form a new government in Canada after his Liberal Party secured the most seats in parliament. The comeback win came as Carney clashed with US President Donald Trump over tariff policy and calls to add Canada as the “fifty-first state” “Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over,” Carney declared in his victory speech. What does the Liberals’ victory mean for trade, security, and diplomacy in North America and beyond? We put out the call to our experts for answers.Click to jump to an expert analysis: Christopher Sands, Diane Francis, Michael Bociurkiw, Maia Nikoladze, Reed Blakemore, Layla Mashkoor, and She Sheehan. The results show a Canada both united and divided, they say. The result may be seen in Washington as weak. The election was a referendum on joining the U.S. Canadians rejected it, the experts say. They say Carney outperformed expectations, but the appetite for change remains strong.
Click to jump to an expert analysis:
Christopher Sands: The results show a Canada both united and divided
Diane Francis: The election was a referendum on joining the United States. Canadians rejected it.
Michael Bociurkiw: Canadians voted for a steady hand in turbulent times
Imran Bayoumi: Expect Carney to pursue defense deals with new partners
Maite Gonzalez Latorre: Conservative wins in Alberta reveal the political divide in Canada
Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze, and Lize de Kruijf: Next, Carney will need to strengthen coordination among Canada’s provinces
Reed Blakemore: Energy and infrastructure will be core to managing the US-Canada relationship
Mark Scott: Expect Carney to push ahead on AI and social media regulation
Layla Mashkoor: Meta’s news blackout in Canada creates a troubling precedent
The results show a Canada both united and divided
Canada’s April 28 federal election was a referendum on the country’s relationship with the United States. Both the governing Liberals and opposition Conservatives campaigned against pressure from the Trump administration—tariffs, border demands, and jabs about Canada as the “fifty-first state.” A surge of nationalist sentiment swept the country, including in Quebec. Canadians appeared more united than ever.
Yet the result was a divided verdict: a Liberal minority government, with 162 seats—ten short of a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons. It’s a gain from the 153 seats held before the election but not the majority Carney hoped for. Carney, elected as a member of parliament for the first time, will now be invited by the governor general to form a government.
Canada has elected only two majority governments since 2004. Minority governments typically govern by negotiating support vote by vote. The New Democratic Party’s poor showing in 2025 makes another formal “supply and confidence” agreement unlikely.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat, and a party that led in polls for over a year failed to adjust its message after Trudeau’s exit. Carney outperformed expectations, but the appetite for change remains strong. Canadians are still divided on who should lead.
This result may be seen in Washington as weak. The Trump administration is expected to renew pressure on Canada to meet NATO’s 2 percent of gross domestic product defense spending target, strengthen border security, and unlock its critical minerals—goals first promised by Trudeau in 2019 with little progress.
June will bring two defining tests for Carney: hosting the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Kananaskis—Trump’s first visit to Canada in his second term—and attending the NATO summit in The Hague. How he performs will shape Canada’s standing abroad—and at home.
—Christopher Sands is an adjunct lecturer and the director of the Hopkins Center for Canadian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
The election was a referendum on joining the United States. Canadians rejected it.
Canada’s political landscape shifted to a two-party system for the first time in years, giving the Liberals a slight advantage. But the man not even on the ballot, Trump, influenced the outcome more than did any of the Canadian party leaders. As such, the election of 2025 could be considered a referendum on joining the United States that was roundly rejected by Canadians.
Canadians fled into one of the two mainstream parties as Trump waded directly into the campaign. On election day, the US president broke the unwritten rule that US and Canadian leaders won’t interfere directly in elections in one another’s countries. Trump posted that Canadians should vote for him in order for Canada to become the fifty-first state.
It didn’t work.
—Diane Francis is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. She is a well-known journalist, author, broadcaster, and editor-at-large at the National Post.
Canadians voted for a steady hand in turbulent times
OTTAWA—Canadians have never had much appetite for dramatic change, especially in turbulent times—a fact underscored by yesterday’s election results and record turnout in advance polls. Voters appeared to be looking for a steady, capable hand in Carney, a former banker: someone with the backbone to confront Trump, who seems intent on turning Canada into a de facto fifty-first state, and the competence to undo nearly a decade of economic mismanagement under Trudeau.
Trump’s belligerence helped the Liberals erase a twenty-one-point deficit and avoid a return to the opposition benches. But in the final days of the campaign, domestic concerns reclaimed center stage—housing affordability, the inflation of food prices, a crumbling health system, immigration, and crime. A tragic vehicle attack at a Filipino festival in Vancouver on the campaign’s final day may have briefly boosted support for Poilievre, who campaigned on tough-on-crime policies. Nevertheless, Poilievre lost his Ottawa seat and now faces political purgatory.
Carney’s ability to enact his agenda will depend largely on how quickly he builds working relationships with opposition parties—notably the Bloc Québécois, which secured at least twenty-three seats. It also hinges on whether the Conservatives cooperate in a “Team Canada” approach or spend the next six months trying to bring down the government.
On the global stage, Carney must work to reestablish Canada as a respected middle power in a world where the rules-based order is unraveling. With the world’s largest Ukrainian diaspora outside Russia, the Liberals face pressure to maintain strong support for Kyiv—including calls to transfer twenty-three billion Canadian dollars in frozen Russian assets to help fund Ukraine’s war effort and reconstruction. Canada’s upcoming G7 summit offers Carney an opportunity to rally allies against returning $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank reserves to Moscow.
In style as well as substance, Carney marks a stark shift from his predecessor. Gone are the flashy socks, selfies, hobnobbing with Hollywood celebrities, and empty virtue signals. Though he has the charisma of an icicle in a Canadian winter, Carney brings confidence, competence, and a steady hand—the qualities Canadians seem to value most right now.
—Michael Bociurkiw is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
Expect Carney to pursue defense deals with new partners
Both Carney and Poilievre made foreign policy and defense a central pillar of their campaigns, with both calling for increased investment in the Arctic and increased defense spending. For Carney to achieve this, expect him to look beyond the traditional defense partnership with the United States and to forge new, smaller, defense deals with a variety of nations.
In Carney’s first trip abroad as prime minister, he visited Paris and London, spurning the traditional initial stop in Washington, DC. On the trip, the prime minister said that Canada was reconsidering its commitment to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the United States, and he announced the framework for a new security and intelligence partnership with France.
As Canada faces an increasingly volatile world, expect Carney to continue to pursue deals and new partnerships like the decision to purchase the JORN over-the-horizon radar from Australia. Closer ties between Canada and South Korea are also possible, with a Korean delegation visiting Ottawa early in March to pitch Canada on the purchase of submarines. Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy white paper, released in December 2024, called for closer cooperation with the Nordic states (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), leveraging the security challenges and NATO membership shared by these nations.
With Carney declaring that Canada’s old relationship with the United States is “over,” expect the new government to look away from furthering closer defense ties with the United States, except where needed, such as on North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) modernization. Ottawa will instead be seeking to forge relationships with other countries that have a shared threat perception and possess valuable technology and insights that can strengthen Canada.
—Imran Bayoumi is an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
Conservative wins in Alberta reveal the political divide in Canada
Elbows up for Carney, but elbows down for Liberals in Alberta. This morning’s results confirmed Conservative dominance across the province, with the New Democratic Party managing to hold just one seat and the Liberals securing only two. The province has sent a large team of Conservative wins to Ottawa, though a handful of city ridings hosted tight races, highlighting Alberta’s persistent rural-urban divide.
While Conservatives and Liberals battled fiercely at the national level, Alberta presented a simpler equation: guaranteed Conservative victories with only potential New Democratic Party upsets in select ridings. Canadians clearly recognized this election’s importance with over seven million advance ballots cast nationwide, setting a record. Alberta saw turnout exceeding 63 percent, with Elections Canada counting 2,064,167 votes from 96 percent of polls out of 3,234,505 registered voters.
The election results have definitively answered whether Alberta voters would choose the New Democratic Party or the Liberals for provincial representation in competitive races against Conservatives. During his victory speech, Carney emphasized national unity: “Who’s ready to stand up for Canada with me? And who’s ready to build Canada strong?” With blue-collar Albertans significantly impacted by US tariffs, Carney now faces a critical opportunity to demonstrate his commitment to all Canadians, not just Liberal supporters or Ontario residents.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has aligned closely with Trump, and Carney have not started their relationship on solid footing. As an Edmonton native, however, Carney may leverage his Alberta connections to build bridges with Smith and provincial voters despite the overwhelming Conservative victory in the province.
—Maite Gonzalez Latorre is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Next, Carney will need to strengthen coordination among Canada’s provinces
With Canada’s federal election now behind us, Carney and his Liberal government face an important task: consolidating the country’s economic power to respond more effectively to global challenges.
Unlike the United States, where the federal government can regulate nearly all economic activity, Canada’s Constitution grants provinces broad authority. This fractured structure can hamper the federal government’s ability to respond swiftly and with a unified strategy to external economic pressures.
The recent US imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods highlighted this vulnerability. Instead of presenting a coordinated national response, Alberta, Canada’s largest oil-producing province, broke ranks with Ottawa. While Canadian oil is a critical energy source for US refineries, Alberta refused to support leveraging this as a bargaining tool. This divergence weakened Canada’s negotiating position and underscored how regional interests can undermine national cohesion.
The United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement adds further complexity. Article 32.10 requires Canada to notify the United States and Mexico if it seeks a trade deal with a nonmarket economy—potentially allowing them to withdraw from the agreement. This restricts Canada’s trade flexibility and reinforces its dependence on US policy.
To secure its economic future, the next federal government must prioritize a more unified approach to economic governance. Strengthening coordination with the provinces is no longer optional—it is essential. Without it, Canada will remain a collection of competing regional interests, ill-equipped to respond to external pressures or shape its own global economic path. As the 2026 USMCA review approaches, Canada needs a clearer, united voice—not only to protect existing partnerships but to ensure it can build new ones. Strategic alignment—at home and abroad—is the only way forward.
—Kimberly Donovan is the Director of the Atlantic Council’s Economic Statecraft Initiative.
—Maia Nikoladze is an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Economic Statecraft Initiative.
—Lize de Kruijf is a project assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Economic Statecraft Initiative.
For more on Canada’s need for economic consolidation, read the Economic Statecraft Initiative’s report:
Energy and infrastructure will be core to managing the US-Canada relationship
The Liberal Party’s victory is a profound change from just six months ago, when the Conservatives held a 20 percentage point lead in the polls. That the Liberal Party will now find a relatively simple pathway to building a majority coalition, while Poilievre lost his own seat in Parliament to a Liberal candidate, underscores how adverse the reaction in Canada has been to the Trump administration’s rhetoric around Canada’s sovereignty and to the disruption of US-Canadian economic integration through tariffs. Rather than a Conservative government in Ottawa that may have been philosophically aligned if not collaborative with its agenda, the White House will now have a Canadian counterpart with a clear mandate to assert its strength and independence while beginning a process of economic diversification.
But now the hard work begins, with energy and infrastructure playing a key role in the months ahead. Energy—specifically crude oil and electricity—is one of the foundational pieces of the US-Canada relationship. Tariff exemptions on Canadian crude reflect this reality, given their connection to refineries in the US Midwest and as a reliable, secure source of heavy crude. From oil and gas to minerals and electricity, expanding Canadian energy resources are a core part of managing US energy prices, and they are worthwhile contributions to the idea of American (or North American) Energy Dominance.
A Carney-led government will have to embrace this opportunity. During his campaign, Carney spoke about revisiting Canada’s carbon price regime, which was a major part of the Conservative platform and has to-date been an obstacle to unlocking investment in Canadian energy. However, Carney has committed to sustaining legislation on infrastructure impact assessments, which has been a pain point for energy companies to expand their own infrastructure. Those specific policy measures aside, Carney has largely communicated that his government will seek broad-based energy investment, including for critical minerals and next-generation nuclear.
The details of the Canadian energy agenda will be fulcrum issues for any of Ottawa’s ambitions to diversify energy exports away from the United States and toward global markets. Energy resources remain largely the jurisdiction of Canada’s individual provinces, and how Carney navigates a federal energy platform will be critical to building the cross-provincial partnerships necessary to reach new export markets. The negotiation of those partnerships has been a longstanding obstacle to east-west energy infrastructure in Canada. With that in mind, Carney’s diversification strategy is as much a function of internal diplomacy as it is external.
—Reed Blakemore is a director with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.
Expect Carney to push ahead on AI and social media regulation
In the build-up to this week’s election, there were widespread efforts across social media to undermine political candidates and Canada’s democratic institutions. Those tactics have now become a mainstay in many votes worldwide, and Canada was no exception. Ahead of the April 28 vote, local officials coordinated with outside researchers to flag potentially harmful online content. That included content by foreign actors, including some from the United States, seeking to influence how Canadians voted.
Yet despite these digital political messages, the online conversation around the election was dominated by offline events, especially Canada’s ongoing strained relationship with the United States. It is almost impossible to quantify the impact of online influence operations. But on the day after election day, it is hard to say such tactics played a meaningful role ahead of the Liberal Party’s victory because offline events—and not digital narratives—appear to have driven many voters’ choices.
In the weeks ahead, Ottawa will likely double down on tech policy issues that had stalled under Trudeau’s leadership. Efforts around artificial intelligence (AI) governance and greater checks on social media are likely as Carney sets out his policy objectives to reposition the country in the wake of its deteriorating relationship with the United States.
—Mark Scott is a senior resident fellow at the Digital Forensic Research Lab’s (DFRLab) Democracy + Tech Initiative within the Atlantic Council Technology Programs.
Meta’s news blackout in Canada creates a troubling precedent
During Canada’s short-lived thirty-five-day election cycle, candidates took their campaigns to cities, towns, and online platforms to win over voters. One distinguishing feature of Canada’s information ecosystem is the absence of news content on Facebook and Instagram, following Meta’s decision to block it in response to the Canadian Online News Act. This is particularly noteworthy as Facebook was reported to be the platform most used by Canadians.
Exacerbating the issue was Meta’s January 2025 decision to end its fact-checking programs, which played an important role in maintaining protective safeguards against information manipulation—safeguards that are even more necessary in the face of proliferating AI-enabled deceptions.
Canadian Meta users were left to navigate an uncertain landscape, one without adequate protections but rife with potential risks and deliberate harms. This creates a concerning precedent, suggesting that platform resistance may create information vulnerabilities that can be exploited during critical democratic processes.
As the tactics of information manipulation evolve, democratic societies must foster adaptable, evidence-based responses that protect electoral integrity and preserve the principles of open, free discourse. This requires ongoing innovation in both policy and technology to stay ahead of emerging threats while upholding the values of democracy.
—Layla Mashkoor is a deputy managing editor at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab.
Further reading
Related Experts: Imran Bayoumi, Maite Gonzalez Latorre, Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze, Lize de Kruijf, Diane Francis, Michael Bociurkiw, Mark Scott, and Layla Mashkoor
Image: Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks at the Liberal Party election night headquarters in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada April 29, 2025. REUTERS/Blair Gable
Once poised for power, Canada’s Pierre Poilievre now trails in polls, and analysts say one man is to blame for the slide; here’s who it is
Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre is trailing in the polls. Analysts point to U.S. President Donald Trump’s return as a major factor. With Liberal leader Mark Carney gaining momentum, voters are turning toward stability over populism. Trump’s recent comments about Canada have also caused a stir. He said he’d “rather deal with a Liberal than a Conservative” when it comes to Canadian leadership. He even said Poilievere was “no friend of mine,” sparking headlines across both countries. Many Canadians are asking: who can stand up to Trump without making things worse? For a country that sends 75% of its exports to the United States, trade is a serious issue. Many voters are already thinking about how they think about reworking trade deals and taxing Canadian imports. But it’s not clear yet whether voters believe the shift is genuine. It seems more voters are asking, “Right now, it seems it seems like Trump is making things more and more difficult for Canada.”
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Pierre Poilievre looked like he had it all lined up. As leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, he was ahead in the polls, his rallies were packed, and he had a strong base behind him. But fast forward to today, and things have taken a sharp turn. Poilievre is now trailing the Liberals, and one name keeps coming up when analysts explain the shift: Donald Trump.Trump, who is now serving another term as President of the United States, may not be running in Canada, but his presence is being felt in a big way north of the border.It might sound odd at first. After all, Donald Trump isn’t Canadian and he’s not campaigning in Canada. But his return to the White House in 2024 has reshaped the tone and direction of conservative politics across North America. Trump’s recent comments about Canada have also caused a stir.In a recent Fox News interview, Trump criticized Poilievre and said he’d “rather deal with a Liberal than a Conservative” when it comes to Canadian leadership. He even said Pierre Poilievre was “no friend of mine,” sparking headlines across both countries.For Poilievre, that kind of public snub is more than just awkward — it’s politically damaging.Back in early 2024, Poilievre’s Conservatives were consistently leading in national polls. According to data from Abacus Data and Angus Reid at the time, they were ahead of the Liberals by roughly 5 to 7 points. But after Trump’s return and especially after the Fox News interview aired, the numbers began to slip.By March 2025, a fresh Ipsos poll showed the Liberals, now led by Mark Carney, edging ahead by 3 points — 34% to the Conservatives’ 31%.It’s not just about raw numbers either. Among key voting groups like suburban Ontario residents and millennial parents, support for Poilievre has fallen sharply.That’s a big part of the story. Poilievre has often used a populist tone — criticizing the “elite,” standing with “ordinary Canadians,” and blasting mainstream media. At one point, that helped him gain momentum. But now, with Trump back in power, some Canadians are seeing those tactics in a different light.Political strategist Shachi Kurl explained to Global News that many Canadians are “wary of extremism” and don’t want to see their country go the way of polarized American politics.Poilievre is now trying to shift gears. He’s distanced himself from Trump, toned down his rhetoric, and even praised some centrist policies. But it’s not clear yet whether voters believe the shift is genuine.Mark Carney, a former Bank of Canada governor and international finance expert, has stepped into the spotlight with a calmer, more centrist approach. His campaign has focused on stability, economic recovery, and global cooperation — messages that seem to resonate in a post-Trump political climate.In recent speeches, Carney hasn’t directly attacked Poilievre but has warned against “importing divisive politics from other countries,” a clear nod to Trump-style politics.The Liberals have also ramped up ads positioning Carney as a leader who can work constructively with, but also stand up to, a tough Trump-led America.Absolutely. Trump’s “America First” policies are making a comeback, and they’re already affecting how Canadians think about their economy.Recent threats from the Trump administration about reworking trade deals and taxing Canadian imports have made headlines. For a country that sends 75% of its exports to the U.S., that’s a serious issue. Many Canadian voters are asking: who can stand up to Trump without making things worse?Right now, it seems more voters trust Carney to handle that balancing act.There’s still time before Canada’s next federal election, expected later in 2025. Poilievre could regain ground, especially if economic conditions worsen or if Carney makes missteps. But the Conservative leader is in a tricky spot.He needs to keep his base energized while appealing to moderate voters. At the same time, he has to distance himself from Trump without turning off right-leaning supporters who still admire the former businessman-turned-president.It’s a narrow path, and one misstep could cost him dearly.Right now, all signs point to yes. While Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot in Canada, his return to the presidency has created ripple effects that are being felt across the border. From polling numbers to campaign strategy, Trump’s influence is real — and it might be enough to reshape the outcome of Canada’s next federal election.As the race heats up, voters will be watching closely to see who can strike the right tone in a rapidly changing political landscape.