Montana Joins with New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, Nevada Experiencing a Rapid Downfall in Tourist Arrivals from Canada, as Trump Tariff Trade War Hits the Tourism Industry, What You Need to Know

Montana joins New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, and Nevada in facing a severe tourism crisis, as the Trump tariff trade war spirals into a full-blown economic setback. Montana joins this downward spiral, aligning with New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, and Nevada—each state now grappling with a sharp downfall in tourist arrivals from Canada. With the Trump tariff trade war escalating by the day, Montana joins the unfortunate list of states where the tourism industry is seeing a downfall. The downfall in tourist arrivals is particularly brutal from Canada, a key international market. Montana joins New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, and Nevada, where the once-bustling influx of Canadian tourists has dramatically declined.

The Trump tariff trade war has unleashed a retaliatory wave of anti-U.S. sentiment, and Montana joins its coastal and southern counterparts in bearing the brunt. From California’s luxury resorts to Florida’s beaches, from Texas rodeos to Arizona’s canyons, and from Washington’s nature trails to New York’s iconic cityscapes—every state facing a downfall feels the ripple effects. Montana joins the fray with its own plummeting numbers. The downfall isn’t just statistical; it’s emotional, economic, and political.

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Montana joins the list of New York, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Florida, California, and Nevada—a chorus of states crying foul as Canadian tourism fades. As the Trump tariff trade war deepens, the downfall in tourist arrivals has turned into a warning sign for the entire tourism industry. Here’s what you need to know as Montana joins the crisis.

Montana’s tourism industry—particularly in the beloved Flathead Valley—is facing its sharpest downturn in Canadian visitation since the pandemic, as the political fallout from President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariffs and inflammatory rhetoric begins to bite. In what is shaping up to be a critical year for the state’s international tourism sector, border crossings, hotel bookings, and visitor spending from Canada are in freefall, reversing a slow post-pandemic rebound and igniting concern among tourism leaders.

For decades, Alberta and northwest Montana have shared deep tourism ties. Canadians made up 14% of all Montana visitors before COVID-19, spending freely on lodging, groceries, and retail while treating the Flathead Valley as a home away from home. But after Trump reignited trade tensions with Canada in early 2025—slapping new tariffs on imports and suggesting Canada should become America’s “51st state”—those ties are unraveling.

A Sudden and Severe Drop

In January, Canadian spending in Kalispell dropped 13% compared to the previous year. In February, the decline accelerated to 36%, according to the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce. This economic contraction comes despite a hopeful start to the year, where 2023-to-2024 numbers had shown a 10.8% increase in Canadian travel spending.

Similarly, border traffic at Roosville, the nearest port of entry north of Eureka, plummeted. While January saw an 11% year-on-year increase in passenger vehicles, February saw a 14.8% drop, followed by a steep 26% decline in March. Tourism officials now warn of a broader collapse unless diplomatic and economic tensions cool.

Hotel Bookings Nosedive

Across Montana, hotel bookings from Canadian travelers are down 71%, according to Medler of Discover Kalispell. Even more alarming, Canadian youth sports teams have begun canceling their Flathead Valley tournament reservations, disrupting one of the area’s reliable sources of off-season travel.

“The political climate is directly influencing personal travel decisions,” Medler said. “People are not just canceling leisure trips—they’re canceling entire group bookings. That impacts hotels, restaurants, event venues, and local retailers.”

While domestic tourism may buffer some of the economic blow, Canadian visitors often spend more per capita, particularly on high-value items during favorable exchange rate periods. Their absence hits harder than raw numbers suggest.

A Community and Cultural Loss

More than just dollars and cents are at stake. Medler emphasized the emotional and cultural connections that have long defined the Alberta–Montana relationship.

“Montana and Alberta share the world’s first international peace park,” she noted, referencing the Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, established in 1932. “Canadians don’t feel like they’re from a different country. They feel like neighbors. What’s happening now is deeply disheartening.”

The Flathead Valley, home to Glacier National Park, has historically seen Canadian travelers booking extended stays, purchasing second homes, and driving repeat visitation across seasons. With those relationships fraying, tourism leaders worry about long-term erosion of regional loyalty.

Ripple Effects Across Montana

It’s not just Flathead Valley feeling the pressure. Racene Friede, CEO of Western Montana’s Glacier Country, reported that inquiries from international travelers to their call center and website have dropped 29% year-over-year. That includes not only Canadians but European travelers as well, many of whom monitor U.S. political developments before booking.

Friede added that conference cancellations by federal employees—a result of federal budget tightening—are also affecting hotels and event venues, further straining Montana’s hospitality sector.

“We’re in a year of unknowns,” Friede said. “We’re cautiously optimistic about domestic travel, but the international outlook is volatile.”

Kalispell Airport Holding Steady—For Now

Despite the downturn in Canadian visitation, Kalispell’s Glacier Park International Airport (GPIA) is still reporting 13% passenger growth from January to March, according to airport director Rob Ratkowski. He credits this uptick to Flathead Valley’s growing local population and sustained interest from domestic tourists, particularly from western U.S. cities.

However, Ratkowski warns that a flat summer travel season is expected. Airlines are not adjusting capacity yet, but prolonged weakness in international demand may lead to fewer seasonal routes or reduced service in future years.

National Impact Looms

The impact of declining Canadian visitation isn’t limited to Montana. The U.S. Travel Association estimates that a 10% dip in Canadian visitors could cost the U.S. economy $2.1 billion in spending and lead to 14,000 job losses. In 2024, Canada remained the largest source of international visitors to the U.S., generating $20.5 billion in travel-related spending and supporting over 140,000 jobs.

With many border towns and rural destinations like Montana heavily reliant on cross-border tourism, even modest reductions in Canadian travel can ripple through local economies.

Can the Damage Be Reversed?

While tourism officials remain hopeful that domestic travel demand can buoy 2025 revenues, there’s growing consensus that geopolitical diplomacy will play a key role in reversing current declines.

“We need the rhetoric to cool,” Medler said. “We need signals from both governments that cross-border friendship and economic partnership still matter. Without that, no amount of marketing will bring back the trust that has been lost.”

Already, regional tourism boards are discussing joint campaigns with Alberta tourism partners to rebuild interest through storytelling, cultural exchanges, and media engagement. But leaders stress that policy consistency and mutual respect at the federal level are prerequisites for any lasting recovery.

Conclusion: A Warning Sign for Border Economies

The fallout from Trump’s revived trade war with Canada is proving far more than symbolic for Montana’s tourism industry. With hotel bookings plunging, spending shrinking, and border crossings down, destinations like the Flathead Valley are bracing for a potentially bruising travel season.

At stake is not just economic recovery but a decades-long relationship that once turned a border into a bridge. Whether that bridge can be rebuilt in the months ahead—or whether 2025 marks the start of a deeper divide—will depend on leadership, diplomacy, and the industry’s ability to adapt in uncertain times.

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It started slowly.

Earlier this year, Diane Medler, executive director of the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce, also known as Discover Kalispell, said that the organization began to notice an increase in people unsubscribing from their email newsletter, mainly from Canada. Sometimes, a message would explain why: We no longer plan to visit Kalispell or the Flathead Valley due to the ongoing tensions between the United States and Canada.

But as the scope of President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada and other long-time allies has expanded, the impact on visitation to Montana — a cornerstone industry in places like the Flathead Valley — is now coming into focus with declining border crossings and increasing hotel cancellations.

For years, Canada has been one of the most significant sources of visitors to northwest Montana. The bond between the Flathead Valley and Alberta was so tight that many Canadians purchased second homes there. The COVID-19 pandemic and the extended border closure changed all that, but Medler said visitation had been slowly returning to its pre-pandemic levels. Discover Kalispell tracks credit card spending data in the Kalispell area to see where visitors are coming from. From 2023 to 2024, Canadian spending in Kalispell increased by 10.8%.

However, earlier this year, Trump imposed stiff tariffs on the United States’ northern neighbor — as well as others — and offered that Canada should join the U.S. as the “51st state.” In January, Canadian spending in Kalispell dropped 13% compared to the same period last year, and the following month it fell 36%, according to the Kalispell chamber.

At Roosville, the border crossing north of Eureka and the closest major port to the Flathead, passenger vehicles coming south were up 11% in January compared to the same month last year. However, those trips decreased by 14.8% in February and 26% in March.

Hotel bookings have also taken a hit. Across the state, hotel bookings by Canadians have dropped by 71%, according to data provided by Medler. She also said that hotels in the Kalispell area reported that some Canadian youth sports teams planning to compete at tournaments in the Flathead Valley have also canceled their reservations.

Canadian tourists have made up a smaller piece of the visitation pie in recent years, following the tourism boom in the Flathead during and after the pandemic. According to Western Montana’s Glacier Country, before the pandemic, Canadians made up about 14% of visitors to Montana; following COVID-19, it’s been about 8%.

However, Medler said Canadian visitors often spend significantly more than others, even compared to those from other parts of the United States. Besides hotels and restaurants, Canadians have traditionally liked to make major purchases in the U.S. when the exchange rate is in their favor or hit the box stores in Kalispell for groceries, clothing and other items.

Nationally, the U.S. Travel Association has warned that the drop in Canadian visitation could have a major impact on the tourism industry. Canada has long been the top source of international visitors to the United States, with 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs. Even a 10% drop in Canadian visitation could result in $2.1 billion in lost spending and the loss of 14,000 jobs.

But Medler said the Canadians contribute more than just money; they also contribute to the community. She said she’s concerned that the personal connections between the Flathead and Canada, already frayed by the pandemic border shutdown, will fray even further amid tensions between the two countries’ governments.

“Montana and Alberta have been so close for so long; we share the world’s first international peace park,” she said, referring to the Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park established in 1932. “Canadians don’t feel like they’re from a different country. They feel like neighbors.”

Racene Friede, CEO of Western Montana’s Glacier Country, said that from Jan. 1 to mid-April, inquiries to their website and call center in Missoula from individuals outside the United States, not just Canada, decreased by 29%.

Friede said the Trump administration’s actions are impacting Montana’s hospitality industry in other ways, too. She said several hotels and conference centers in the state have reported an increase in cancellations because federal employees are having to cancel trips for conferences due to budget cuts.

Despite the loss of Canadian travelers and other economic uncertainties, Friede said she remains “cautiously optimistic” that Montana’s tourism industry will have another strong year and that domestic travelers will make up for the decline of international visitors. That could still change.

“It’s a year of unknowns,” she said.

Rob Ratkowski, airport director for Glaicer Park International Airport, said he’s anticipating a flat summer travel season with numbers on par with last year. He said the airlines that fly in and out of Kalispell have not altered their plans for the upcoming travel season due to changing trends, and traffic was actually up 13% between January and March. Ratkowski said the number of passengers coming and going through Glacier Park International during the shoulder season has increased dramatically in recent years, something he attributes to the Flathead Valley’s growing population.

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Ten years ago, walking through downtown Whitefish or the parking lot at a popular trailhead in the Flathead Valley, you might be forgiven for thinking you had accidentally crossed the border into Canada.

During the summer and winter — and especially on long holiday weekends — it seemed as if the number of red and white Alberta plates outnumbered Montana ones. Storefronts in Kalispell had signs welcoming Canadians (and their money). A local newspaper published a border crossing guide so visitors from the north could know the rules about what they could and couldn’t bring into the U.S. There were even T-shirts declaring Whitefish to be “Canada’s Tijuana.”

For decades, the Flathead Valley was a popular destination for Canadians, especially Albertans, looking to stretch their dollar at American department stores or hit the slopes in winter. Many even bought second homes in the area, with places like Meadow Lake Resort near Columbia Falls becoming unofficial Canadian enclaves (or “Little Canada” as one researcher described it).

But the pandemic-related border closures and economic challenges on both sides of the border changed all that. And now, the ongoing threat of a trade war between the two countries threatens to fray northwest Montana’s Canadian connection even further.

Donna Townley, a Canadian economist and instructor at the University of Lethbridge, has been studying the connection between Alberta and Montana for years and even owns a home near Whitefish. She said Canadians first started coming to the Flathead Valley in significant numbers in the 1980s, and the trend ballooned in the 2010s. Part of the reason was that thanks to oil and gas production, Alberta’s economy was not significantly impacted during the Great Recession in 2008. That same year, the average household income in Alberta was nearly twice that in Montana. With Montana’s housing market in shambles, Canadians started buying up property. By 2015, more than 1,600 properties in Flathead County were owned by someone with a primary address in Canada, making up almost half of all Canadian-owned properties in the state.

Townley said Albertans liked coming south because their money could go further, but also because the Flathead Valley was culturally and politically similar to the conservative-leaning province. And while Alberta has its own mountain resorts, most notably Banff about an hour and a half west of Calgary, towns like Whitefish were considerably less busy a decade ago.

Canadian visitation to the Flathead began to slide downward in the late 2010s as Alberta’s economy began to stumble, and then it plummeted in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. The border was closed to all non-essential travel for more than a year and wasn’t fully open without restrictions (such as presenting a negative COVID-19 test before crossing) until early 2022.

During the closure, many Canadians with homes in the Flathead could not access them. With home prices in the area skyrocketing, many decided to sell. Townley said by one estimate, more than 500 Canadians sold their properties in the Flathead Valley between 2020 and 2022.

But those who held on to their property or resumed vacationing in Montana after the pandemic were in for a rude awakening when they finally returned. For years, one of the big draws was the cost of goods in Montana; Townley said it was common for families from Lethbridge and elsewhere to drive to Kalispell and spend hundreds of dollars or more on groceries because it was cheaper than back home. But after the pandemic, things had flipped and suddenly it was more expensive to buy just about anything in Montana.

Townley said that in years past, her family did all their shopping in the Kalispell area, but now they only buy the essentials or things they cannot bring across the border, such as meat and vegetables. They’ve also stopped eating out at area restaurants; it’s just too expensive, she said.

“You’ve got higher inflation, higher prices for goods and a weaker Canadian dollar,” she said. “So when you add all that together, a lot of people don’t think it’s worth going down anymore.”

Statistics from the U.S. Department of Transportation show that visitation between Canada and Montana has dropped significantly since the 2010s. At the Port of Roosville near Eureka, the closest border crossing to the Flathead Valley, 359,950 people entered the United States in private vehicles in 2014. By 2024, that number had dropped to 269,233. The same drop was found at Sweetgrass, the busiest border crossing in Montana. In 2014, 563,486 people entered at the port north of Shelby, but just 356,910 crossed over last year.

Nick Polumbus, president of Whitefish Mountain Resort, said Canadian visitation is a fraction of what it was a decade ago. At one point, Canadians made up 25% of skier visits on the mountain and 50% of lodging stays. While Whitefish Mountain Resort’s visitation has continued to grow (about 430,000 last winter), Albertans only made up 5% of skier visits during the winter of 2023-2024.

“About 15 years ago, the Canadians really saved our bacon during the Great Recession,” Polumbus said.

Now, a trade war between the U.S. and Canada threatens to depress Canadian visitation even more. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on most Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on oil and gas. Canada has retaliated with its own tariffs on a number of American-made goods. Trump has said the tariffs will remain in place until fentanyl and other drugs stop coming across the border (Officials north of the border have said less than 1% of confiscated fentanyl that enters the U.S. comes from Canada, and that in January, it was almost zero).

On Thursday afternoon, Trump decided to delay the implementation of tariffs until April 2. But even with the delay, Canadians are frustrated by the actions of their longtime ally and are letting it be known with their wallet.

“People here are ticked at Trump,” Townley said, adding that the sentiment is felt across Canada’s political spectrum.

While the tariffs would predominantly impact commercial trade across the border, many Canadians are deciding to cancel trips to the U.S. in protest of the Trump administration’s actions. A Canadian travel agency reported that bookings for leisure travel to American cities dropped 40% in February compared to the same month last year, and some Canadian airlines were canceling flights after seeing a drop in travel demand to the U.S.

According to the U.S. Travel Association, Canada has traditionally been the number one source of international visitors to the U.S., with 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending. The trade group estimates that even a 10% drop in visitation from Canada due to trade tensions could result in $2.1 billion in lost spending and put more than 14,000 U.S. jobs at risk.

Even some Montana Republicans are concerned about the impacts tariffs would have. Sen. Mike Cuffe of Eureka has long touted the close bond between the U.S. and Canada in his community and was vocal about the prolonged border closure’s damage during the pandemic. He said he hoped both sides could come to an agreement that would secure the border and eliminate the taxes.

“I’m not crazy about tariffs, but it’s a tool used by Donald Trump in the past,” he told Montana Free Press. “I’m concerned, but I’m hopeful that some good will come from this down the road.”

Regardless of if or when tariffs are implemented, Townley said it’s unlikely Alberta and the Flathead Valley will have the same relationship they had a decade ago, thanks to the high cost of living and housing costs in Montana. While many Albertans loved the area, she said, those who sold their condos or homes during the pandemic simply cannot afford to buy back into the market.

“I think the glory days of all the Albertans in the Flathead Valley are over,” she said. “You have a few who held on to their properties and still come down, but the boom is over.”

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