Diplomatic tightrope on Iran just got more precarious for Starmer

12 hours ago Share Save Joe Pike Political Correspondent Share Save

PA Media Sir Keir Starmer seemed confident Donald Trump would not intervene, after sitting next to him at a G7 dinner in Canada

Sir Keir Starmer has been treading a delicate diplomatic tightrope all week on the issue of Iran. Last night’s airstrikes by the US mean the challenges facing the prime minister could now continue for months. Sir Keir’s repeated calls for de-escalation have clearly not been heeded by the White House. Yet he has avoided direct UK involvement in military action and has sought to maintain what British diplomats claim is a solid and valuable relationship with US president Donald Trump.

The response from ministers appears to be it was not the means they wanted, but they supported the outcome. The UK has not explicitly endorsed the method, but the result – a delay in Iran getting nuclear weapons – is, they argue, in the UK’s national interest. Sir Keir’s position has shifted since Tuesday, when he seemed confident Trump would not intervene, after sitting next to him at a G7 dinner in Canada. “I was sitting right next to President Trump, so I’ve no doubt, in my mind, the level of agreement there was,” he said. Just four days later the president intervened. Did the prime minister misread Trump? Or did the president – whose unpredictability is central to his foreign policy approach – just change his mind?

No 10 has told us it was given advanced warning of the US action, but the UK was not asked to take part. We do not know why. There had been speculation that US B-2 stealth bombers could have used the UK’s Diego Garcia airbase in the Indian Ocean as a waypoint en route to Iran. Instead, “Operation Midnight Hammer” involved B-2s flying non-stop for 18 hours from Missouri to reach their targets, according to the Pentagon. Follow latest on US strikes on Iran

Iran’s secretive nuclear site that only a US bomb could hit

What we know about US strikes on Iran It is possible the UK was not asked for assistance because it would have been a difficult request to grant. There have been debates at the top of government in recent days about the legality of any UK involvement, with the attorney general, Lord Hermer, providing advice on a range of scenarios. With the next steps in the conflict unclear, the US could end up requesting military support from the UK in the coming weeks – prompting further difficult decisions for the prime minister.

So, what next?

Decoy flights and seven B-2 stealth bombers – how US says it hit Iran’s nuclear sites

7 hours ago Share Save Jake Horton, Paul Sargeant and Robin Levinson King BBC Verify Reporting from Washington, DC Share Save

BBC

An 18-hour flight each way, multiple mid-air refuelings, and a series of decoys – this is how the mission to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities played out, according to four-star General Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest-ranking officer in the US military. Although the full impact of what the US is calling ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ is still unclear, a timeline of how the complex mission unfolded was laid out in a Pentagon briefing on Sunday morning, mere hours after the strikes. American bombers went “in and out and back without the world knowing at all”, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told reporters.

It all began just after midnight when Secretary Hegseth joined US President Donald Trump, Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and elite Pentagon staff in the Situation Room at the White House to watch as a fleet of aircraft departed an American airbase in rural Missouri. Under the cover of darkness, B-2 stealth bombers took off from Whiteman Air Force Base at 00:01 EDT (05:01 BST), according to the Pentagon. Their ultimate target: Iran’s most secure nuclear sites. The subsonic jets, which travel just below the speed of sound, flew over the Atlantic Ocean loaded with powerful “bunker buster” bombs capable of penetrating concrete over 18m (60ft) deep. It’s the kind of weaponry needed to hit Iran’s nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which is buried below a mountain deep underground and considered to be the epicentre of the country’s nuclear programme. The US is the only country in the world known to possess this type of weapon.

But the world wasn’t watching – yet. All eyes were facing west, towards the Pacific Ocean, following reports bombers had been sent to the US island territory of Guam. “While the deployment is not being officially connected to discussions around the US joining Israel’s war on Iran, few will doubt the link,” the BBC wrote at the time. But it was just a ruse – according to the account delivered by the Pentagon – a decoy to distract from the top-secret flights heading straight for Iran over the Atlantic.

The planes that flew west over the Pacific were “a deception effort known only to an extremely small number of planners and key leaders,” Gen Caine said. “The main strike package comprised of seven B-2 spirit bombers, each with two crew members, proceeded quietly to the east with minimal communications,” he added. Those military planes don’t show up on flight tracking websites, making it difficult for the BBC to independently verify the Pentagon’s description of the events. And although satellite images can help show the extent of damage at the sites overnight, they can’t tell us the exact times when they were hit. When the fleet made it to the Middle East, sometime around 17:00 EDT (22:00 BST), it was joined by support aircraft that helped protect the bombers by sweeping in front of them to look for enemy fighters and surface-to-air missile threats, in what Gen Caine called a “complex, tightly timed manoeuvre”. But Iranian fighter jets didn’t take off and no air defences appeared to fire a shot, according to US officials. “Israeli dominance over Iranian airspace primed the pump for American bombers to operate with impunity,” Patrycja Bazylczyk, a missile defence expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, told BBC Verify. The next hour and forty minutes were described by Gen Caine during the Pentagon briefing in a level of detail not normally disclosed to the public. Although the briefing provided timings for certain events, the map showing the bombers’ journey wasn’t a specific flight path and differed slightly in two versions presented. The Trump administration has proclaimed the subsequent events as a total victory, claiming the US had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear regime. But the true extent of the damage, and its aftermath, has yet to be measured. While Iran has confirmed the attacks, it has minimised the extent of the damage and has not provided a specific account of the sequence of events. At around 17:00 EDT (22:00 BST) US officials say more than two dozen Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles were launched from a US submarine stationed in the Arabian Sea towards the nuclear site near Isfahan, a city of about two million people. While the nuclear facility there is hundreds of kilometres inland, the submarines were close enough to enable the cruise missiles to impact at roughly the same time as the stealthy B-2s dropped their “bunker buster” bombs over the other two nuclear sites, said Dr Stacie Pettyjohn, a defence expert at the Center for a New American Security. It all meant that the US was able to provide “a coordinated surprise attack on multiple sites”, she told BBC Verify. Meanwhile, the fleet of bombers entered Iranian airspace, where the US employed several other deception tactics, including more decoys, according to the Pentagon. Then the air strikes began. The lead bomber dropped two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator weapons – known as MOPs – on the first of several targets at Fordo at about 18:40 EDT (23:40 BST), just after 02:00 in the morning in Iran. The MOP bomb is able to drop through about 18m (60ft) of concrete or 61m (200ft) of earth before exploding, according to experts. This means that although it’s not guaranteed success, it is the only bomb in the world that could come close to impacting the depth of tunnels at the Fordo facility – thought to be 80-90m (262-295ft) below the surface. It was the first time the “bunker buster” bombs were ever dropped in a real combat operation.

US asks China to stop Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz

44 minutes ago Share Save Adam Hancock Business reporter, BBC News Share Save

Getty Images The US Secretary of State has called on China to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. His comments came after Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that parliament had approved a plan to close the Strait but added that the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council. Any disruption to the supply of oil would have profound consequences for the economy. China in particular is the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil and has a close relationship with Tehran. Oil prices surged following the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites, with the price of the benchmark Brent crude reaching its highest level in five months.

“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them (Iran) about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” Marco Rubio had said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday. “If they [close the Straits]… it will be economic suicide for them. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours.” Around 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with major oil and gas producers in the Middle East using the waterway to transport energy from the region. Any attempt to disrupt operations in the Strait could could send global oil prices skyrocketing. They jumped to their highest since January, with the price of Brent crude reaching $78.89 a barrel as of 23:22 GMT Sunday. “The US is now positioned with an overwhelming defence posture in the region to be prepared for any Iran counter attacks. But the risk for oil prices is the situation could escalate severely further,” said Saul Kavonic, Head of Energy Research at MST Financial. The cost of crude oil affects everything from how much it costs to fill up your car to the price of food at the supermarket. China in particular buys more oil from Iran than any other nation – with its oil imports from Iran surpassing 1.8 million barrels per day last month, according to data by ship tracking firm Vortexa. Other major Asian economies including India, Japan and South Korea also rely heavily on crude oil that passes through the Strait. Energy analyst Vandana Hari has said Iran has “little to gain and too much to lose” from closing the Strait. “Iran risks turning its oil and gas producing neighbours in the Gulf into enemies and invoking the ire of its key market China by disrupting traffic in the Strait”, Hari told BBC News.

‘Paralysed and constantly caught by surprise’: Voices from Iran after US strikes

12 hours ago Share Save David Gritten BBC News Taraneh Fathalian BBC Persian Share Save

EPA Iranians attended a protest against the Israeli and US strikes in Tehran on Sunday

“My days and nights are the same. I feel paralysed. I just stare at the ceiling all day and all night.” “I keep wondering what will happen next, and we are constantly caught by surprise.” Shahla – whose name we have changed for her protection – is among the Iranians who have contacted BBC Persian to express their fear and anger after the US bombed three of their country’s key nuclear sites overnight. US President Donald Trump said the Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo facilities were “obliterated” and told Iran’s leaders that they now had a choice of “peace or tragedy”. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US had crossed “a big red line” and warned that it would have “everlasting consequences”. The strikes happened just over a week after Israel launched a large-scale air campaign against Iran, saying it aimed to remove what it called the existential threats of the country’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. Iran’s health ministry says at least 430 people have been killed so far, although one human rights group has put the death toll at double that. Iran has responded by launching missiles at Israeli cities, killing 24 people, according to Israeli authorities.

Iran’s government has severely restricted access to the internet over the past week, limiting the flow of information about what is happening on the ground and making it harder for families to communicate. Mehri – also not her real name – was nevertheless able to send BBC Persian an audio message saying how the US strikes had left her upset and angry. “I don’t think I’ve ever felt this level of sorrow and rage over anything in my life,” she said. “But in a way, it also gives me a strange sense of clarity – it reminds me that I’m connected to something beyond myself.” “This war – Iran’s war – is essentially a conflict between three individuals. Three leaders, from three countries, driven by their own ideologies,” she added, apparently referring to Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “I get furious when I hear them mention names like Isfahan or suddenly declare: ‘We’ve taken control of Iran’s skies.’ These are not just words to me – they’re sacred.” Homayoun, a man from the north-western region of Maku, was defiant in the face of Trump’s warning that Iran would face more attacks if it did not agree to peace. “Yes, we’re going through tough times – but we’ll stand by our country to the very end. And if needed, we’ll give our lives for our homeland, for our honour,” he said. “We won’t let America and its lackeys make any wrong moves in our country.” Trump warned Iran on Saturday that any retaliation against the US “will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight”. But at a news conference in Turkey on Sunday, Araghchi declared that Iran reserved “all options to defend its security, interests and people”. He also said the US bore “full responsibility for the consequences of its actions”. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) described US bases in the Middle East as “vulnerabilities, not strengths”. Before Israel launched its air campaign, Iran’s defence minister had threatened to target all US bases “within our reach” if the US participated in any strikes on its nuclear programme. Some hardliners also called for US Navy vessels in the Gulf to be targeted and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

EPA Iran’s government has restricted internet access, limiting the flow of information from the country

What we know about US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites

8 hours ago Share Save Thomas Mackintosh & Nadine Yousif BBC News Share Save

Maxar Technologies

President Donald Trump says the US has carried out a “successful” bombing attack on three nuclear sites in Iran and they have been “obliterated”. On Sunday, the Pentagon said it will take time to fully assess the effect of the attack though it appears all the sites sustained “extremely severe damage”. Israel says they were in “full co-ordination” with the US in planning the strikes. Iranian officials have confirmed the facilities were struck but denied it had suffered a major blow. The strikes mark a significant escalation in the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. Here’s what we know.

What has the US bombed, and what weapons did it use?

US Gen Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said Operation Midnight Hammer involved 125 US military aircraft including seven B-2 stealth bombers. Three nuclear facilities were targeted – Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, the US said. During a Pentagon briefing, Caine said bombers set off from the US on an 18-hour flight, with some heading west into the Pacific as a “decoy”, while the main strike package made up of the seven B-2 bombers proceeded into Iran. Just before the aircraft entered Iranian airspace, more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from a US submarine at targets at the Isfahan site, he said. As the bombers entered Iranian airspace, the US deployed “several deception tactics, including decoys,” with fighter jets clearing the airspace ahead of them, checking for enemy aircraft and surface-to-air missiles, Caine said. The lead B-2 then dropped two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) – also known as “bunker buster” bombs – on the nuclear site at Fordo. Caine said a total of 14 MOPs were dropped on two target areas. All three Iranian nuclear infrastructure targets were hit between 18:40 Eastern time (23:40 BST) and 19:05 Eastern time (00:05 BST), Caine said. The bombers then exited Iranian airspace and began their return to the US. “Iran’s fighters did not fly, and it appears that Iran’s surface-to-air missile systems did not see us,” Caine said. Speaking at the same briefing, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation did not target Iranian troops or the Iranian people. He added that the mission “was not, and has not been about regime change”. The defence secretary said he recognised “our allies in Israel” for the support given, adding that the operations took months and weeks of planning.

Hidden away in a remote mountainside, Fordo nuclear site includes a uranium enrichment plant that is vital to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Located south of Tehran, it is believed to be deeper underground than the Channel Tunnel connecting the UK and France. Due to Fordo’s depth below ground only the US has the kind of “bunker buster” bomb big enough to penetrate the site. It weighs 13,000kg (30,000lb) and is able to drop through about 18m (60ft) of concrete or 61m (200ft) of earth before exploding, according to experts. Due to the depths of Fordo’s tunnels, the MOP is not guaranteed to be successful, but it is the only bomb that could come close. Caine confirmed that between the seven B-2 Spirit bombers, 14 MOP bombs were among “75 precision-guided weapons” used in the strikes against Iran.

What is known about the impact of the attacks?

Gen Caine has said it will take some time to fully assess the extent of the damage caused by the US attack. But, he said, “an initial battle damage assessment indicates that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction”. New satellite imagery taken on 22 June shows six fresh craters at the Fordo nuclear site, likely the entry points for US munitions, as well as grey dust and debris scattered down the mountainside.

Maxar Technologies New satellite imagery taken on 22 June show fresh craters at the Fordo nuclear site

Following the US’s confirmation that MOPs were used in the attack, senior imagery analyst at McKenzie Intelligence Services, Stu Ray, told BBC Verify: “You will not see a huge blast effect at the entry point as it is not designed to detonate on entry but deeper down into the facility.” He added that it looks like three separate munitions were dropped on two separate impact points, and that the grey colouration on the ground appears to show concrete debris blown out by the explosions. Mr Ray also said the tunnel entrances appear to have been blocked off. As there are no visible craters or impact points near them, he suggests this may have been an Iranian attempt to “mitigate against deliberate targeting of the entrances by aerial bombardment”. The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization said the bombing of the three nuclear sites was a “barbaric violation” of international law. Both Saudi Arabia and the UN’s nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say there has been no increase in radiation levels after the attack. The deputy political director of Iran’s state broadcaster, Hassan Abedini, said Iran had evacuated these three nuclear sites a “while ago”. Appearing on state-run TV, he said Iran “didn’t suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out”.

How might Iran retaliate?

Within the hours of the US bombing, Iran launched a fresh barrage of missiles which hit parts of Tel Aviv and Haifa. At least 86 people were injured, officials said. On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the US “must receive a response for their aggression”. “We have always stated that we are ready to engage and negotiate within the framework of international law, but instead of accepting logic, the other side has demanded the surrender of the Iranian nation,” he said in a statement. BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says Iran must now choose between three strategic courses of action in response to the US attack overnight: Do nothing. This could spare it from further US attacks. It could even choose the diplomatic route and re-join negotiations with the US. But doing nothing makes the Iranian regime look weak, especially after all its warnings of dire repercussions if the US did attack. It may decide the risk of weakening its grip on its population outweighs the cost of further US attacks

Retaliate hard and fast. Iran still has a substantial arsenal of ballistic missiles after manufacturing and hiding these away for years. It has a target list of around 20 US bases to choose from in the broader Middle East. It could also launch “swarm attacks” on US Navy warships using drones and fast torpedo boats

Retaliate later at a time of its own choosing. This would mean waiting until the current tension has subsided and launching a surprise attack when US bases were no longer on maximum alert

What did Donald Trump say and how have US politicians reacted?

Posting on his Truth Social platform at 19:50 Eastern time (00:50 BST), Trump confirmed the strikes on Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Just over two hours later and flanked by Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Hegseth, Trump made a televised address. He said that future attacks would be “far greater” unless Iran reached a diplomatic solution. “Remember, there are many targets left,” he added.

Trump says Iran must make peace or face future attacks after US strikes

Several of Trump’s fellow Republicans have posted statements in support of the move, including Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who “commended” the president. Senator Mitch McConnell, an establishment Republican who has occasionally been highly critical of Trump, called it “a prudent response to the warmongers in Tehran”. Not every Republican was so supportive, with Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, usually a Trump stalwart, saying “this is not our fight”. Republican congressman Thomas Massie, who earlier this week introduced a bill that would block Trump from attacking Iran without lawmakers’ approval, took to X to call the strikes “not constitutional”. In a social media post, Trump called Massie a “pathetic loser”. Article I of the US Constitution places the power to declare war in the hands of Congress, that is, lawmakers elected in the House of Representatives and the Senate. But Article II states the president is commander in chief of the armed forces and grants him authority to order military force to defend the US against actual or anticipated attacks. Leading US Democrat Hakeem Jeffries said Trump risked US “entanglement in a potentially disastrous war in the Middle East”, while others accused him of bypassing Congress to launch a new war.

How have world leaders reacted?

The UK, France and Germany have called on Iran to avoid taking any action that could further “destabilise” the Middle East. In a joint statement, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said they had been “consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon” and they supported the security of Israel. UN Secretary General António Guterres said the US air strikes were a dangerous escalation, while European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged all sides to step back and return to the negotiating table. Saudi Arabia has voiced “great concern” while Oman condemned the strikes and called for de-escalation. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he had spoken to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and called for “dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward”. Russian politician Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, said: “Trump, who came in as a peacemaker president, has started a new war for the US. “With this kind of success, Trump won’t win the Nobel Peace Prize.”

How did this start?