U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters onboard Air Force One en route to the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, June 24, 2025.

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. In yesterday’s newsletter, we talked about how a blitzkrieg of missile-led diplomacy seemed to help de-escalate tensions.

The flipside of that strange path to a truce is that missiles are, well, fundamentally weapons. Mere hours after both countries agreed to the ceasefire, Israel said its longtime rival had fired missiles into its borders — an accusation which Tehran denied — and was preparing to “respond forcefully.” Probably with more missiles.

U.S. President Donald Trump — who reportedly brokered the ceasefire with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani — expressed frustration with those developments.

“I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either but I’m really unhappy if Israel is going out this morning,” Trump told a reporter pool en route to the NATO summit in the Netherlands.

His admonishments seemed to work. There is now a fragile armistice between the two countries.

Oil prices fell and U.S. stocks jumped.

Reuters uploaded a photo of Israeli residents playing frisbee at the beach on June 24. Flights at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport are resuming, and Iran’s airspace is partially open, according to flight monitoring firm FlightRadar24, CNBC reported at around 3 a.m. Singapore time.

Three hours after that update, NBC News, citing three people familiar with the matter, reported that an initial assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency found the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites on Saturday left “core pieces … still intact.”

Trump pushed backed on those accusations Tuesday night, writing that “THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED!”

And so it goes.