Key Points

Chevrolet has overtaken the No. 2 spot for EV sales in the U.S.

Cadillac EVs are bringing in new customers, especially from Tesla.

GM has slowly built trust with consumers while Tesla has done the opposite.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) took over the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market in impressive fashion. It went from an intriguing Roadster story to a full-fledged automotive company that’s generated bottom-line income — a rarity for pure-play EV companies these days. While many believed Tesla’s dominance to be durable and long-lasting, General Motors’ (NYSE: GM) Chevrolet brand is already rocking the boat. And keep your eye on the company’s luxury line of EVs, it might sneak up on you.

Providing a spark

Competitors that have been checking the rearview mirror may have seen Chevrolet coming, but most of us probably didn’t. Chevrolet is now the second best-selling EV brand in the U.S., overtaking Ford and gaining on the top spot that Tesla has held closely for years.

Amid all the doom and gloom surrounding tariffs, potential disruptions in trade and distribution networks, and uncertainty for long-term planning, Chevrolet has done nothing but shine for General Motors. May was Chevrolet’s second-best month ever for EV sales.

Chevrolet Equinox EV. Image source: General Motors.

That strong May result came on the heels of the company’s astounding 94% year-over-year growth in EV sales during the first quarter when GM’s Chevrolet became the fastest-growing domestic EV brand. In fact, General Motors’ recent surge helped the company’s market double to capture 15.5% of EV market share in the U.S.

Chevrolet posted a staggering 134% increase in EV sales during the first half of 2025, compared to the prior year. In fact, the two largest movers in year-over-year EV delivery volume change are GM and Tesla, and they’re moving in opposite directions as you can see in the graphic below.

Image source: Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book Team.

“GM is driving the growth of the U.S. industry, and we have put real distance between us and our traditional competitors,” said Duncan Aldred, GM’s president of North America, according to Automotive News.

Sneaky Cadillac

While Chevrolet is hauling volume, Cadillac has sneakily been a big boost to GM’s EV ambitions. GM is claiming that Cadillac is already the luxury “EV leader” this year with a lineup of luxury electric SUVs hitting the roads, but it should be noted management doesn’t include Tesla in the mix due to its pricing structure.

Cadillac just delivered its best first-half sales since 2008 and sales were up across the board in all 50 U.S. states. Even better, the luxury brand is bringing in new consumers, which is notoriously difficult in the auto industry. In fact, Brad Franz, Cadillac’s global marketing director, told CNBC that nearly 80% of Cadillac EV buyers are new to the brand.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) are both hovering near record highs as escalating tariffs and a growing debate about monetary policy have done little to shake markets.

The Nasdaq Composite led the gains last week, rising more than 1.6%. Meanwhile the S&P 500 popped about 0.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was just above the flat line.

In the week ahead, 112 S&P 500 companies are set to report quarterly results. Reports from Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), and Chipotle (CMG) will be in focus.

Meanwhile, a quiet week of economic data releases will be highlighted by updates on activity in the services and manufacturing sectors as the Federal Reserve enters its blackout period ahead of its July 29-30 policy meeting.

Rate debate heats up

On Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller made his clearest call yet for an interest rate cut in July. During a speech in New York, Waller said the Fed should cut rates in July, adding that the federal funds rate is more than one full percentage point higher than it should be.

“With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate,” Waller said.

However, recent moves in market pricing have shown investors growing less optimistic about rate cuts. Last week, signs of stickiness in consumer inflation combined with a stronger-than-expected June retail sales report and weekly unemployment filings pushed out interest rate cut bets.

As of Friday, markets were pricing in just a 5% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee would cut rates in July, per the CME FedWatch Tool. A month ago, markets had priced in closer to a 13% chance.

“We expect the committee to arrive at a consensus to cut rates in September as the hawkish case weakens with the job market loosening further and no signs of tariffs spilling over into a broader inflationary trend,” Citi chief US economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote in a note to clients on Friday.

Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments

In a recent speech, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates at its upcoming July meeting. (Reuters/Brendan McDermid/File Photo) · REUTERS / Reuters

Earnings scorecard

Big banks kicked off the second quarter earnings reporting period with a string of better-than-expected results. Netflix (NFLX) followed those up on Thursday night with an estimate-beating report. Both the streaming giant and the large financial banks said that the US consumer continues to hold strong.

On an aggregate level, the S&P 500 is now pacing to report earnings growth of 5.6% compared to the same quarter a year ago, per FactSet data. This is above the 4.8% analysts were expecting just last week.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a trade deal with Japan remains in the “realm of possibility,” but emphasized that securing a good deal is more important than rushing one. He indicated that negotiations are ongoing and that the outcome of Japan’s upcoming election could be pivotal to reaching an agreement. Hope springs eternal, but Japan was insulted by the tariff letter.

Also on tariffs, the Financial Times reported that President Trump is pushing for a 15–20% minimum tariff on all EU goods, down from the previously floated 30% in “the letter.” He also refuses to reduce the existing 25% tariff on EU cars and is considering a reciprocal tariff exceeding 10%, even if a deal is reached. Trump has rejected a zero-tariff framework, insisting that access to the U.S. market should carry a baseline tax, effectively between 10% and 20%, while keeping U.S. exports tariff-free. The EURUSD moved lower on the headlines, and the EU trade commissioner reportedly gave a downbeat readout of recent Washington talks. What we can say is the markets are becoming comfortable (the Nasdaq and S&P traded at new records), but with August 1st approaching, the rubber will meet the road soon and the impact on inflation, stocks, bonds and FX could heat up.

The USD is closing next/mostly lower. Looking at the greenback’s change versus the major currencies:

EUR -0.26%

JPY +0.09%

GBP +0.06%

CHF -0.41%

CAD -0.16%

AUD -0.31%

NZD -0.49%

For the trading week, despite the decline versus most currencies today, the USD was higher vs all the major currencies as concerns about lower growth overseas and higher inflation supported the greenback:

EUR +0.52%

JPY +0.915

GBP +0.55%

CHF +0.66%

CAD +0.33%

AUD +1.00%

NZD +0.71%

The Fed will go into quiet mode over the next week and a half until the rate decision on July 30. Today, Fed’s Goolsbee and Waller spoke. Waller was quite emphatic on Thursday evening sayinng he still supports a 25bps rate cut in July, citing rising downside risks and weakening labor market conditions. He stressed that the Fed should not wait for job losses to act, warning that delayed easing could require more aggressive cuts later. Waller sees GDP growth near 1% and believes policy should move closer to neutral.

He noted that private hiring is near stall speed, and the labor market is “on the edge.” While tariffs may raise inflation 0.75–1% in the short term, he views them as a temporary shock, with core inflation close to 2% absent the tariff effects. A July cut would give the Fed space to pause for a few meetings, he said.

Waller also said there’s uncertainty around the neutral Fed funds rate, and 3% may still reflect loose conditions. He confirmed no contact with the Trump team about a potential Fed Chair role. On QT, he sees limited interest in selling MBS and expects the balance sheet runoff to remain slow. He also said stablecoins are not a threat but introduce useful competition in payments. Lastly, he emphasized that data should guide the pace of future cuts, and there’s “nothing wrong with an insurance cut.”

Fed’s Goolsbee sounded like he might want to cut but was dissuaded by the uncertainty on inflation from tariffs. Goolsbee expressed caution ahead of the Fed’s blackout period, noting that the latest CPI data shows tariffs are pushing up goods inflation. He emphasized the need for clarity on the scope and timeline of tariffs, warning that the current “drip-drip” rollout prevents treating them as a one-time price shock. Goolsbee also stated that uncertainty around inflation and trade policy could delay rate cuts, though he acknowledged that it’s realistic for rates to move lower over the next year if conditions stabilize. He added that more months of consistent inflation data would make him more confident in cutting rates and voiced concern over challenges to central bank independence.

Looking at the US debt market, yields are closing mixed for the week with the threat that Chairman Powell would be fired causing volatility and a shift higher in the yield curve. The 2-year yield is closing the week down -2.2 basis points, while the 30 year bond is closing the week six basis points.

Looking at the closing levels:

2-year yield 3.871%, -4.6 basis points. For the week yields are down -2.2 basis points after being up as much as 7 basis points.

5-year yield 3.948, -5.8 basis points. For the week, yields are down -3.2 basis points after being up as much as 7.4 basis points.

10-year yield 4.419%, -4.3 basis points. For the week, the yield is up 0.3 basis points after being up as high as 7.8 basis points.

30-year yield 4.990%, -2.3 basis points. For the week, yield is up 3.6 basis points after being up as much as 12.1 basis points

Next week will be a key week for earnings with Tesla and Alphabet, leading the releases. Below is a list of the major releases before and after market close:

Monday 7/21 – Before Open: Verizon (VZ), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ),

Monday 7/21 – After Close: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

Tuesday 7/22 – Before Open: Lockheed Martin (LMT), Coca‑Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), General Motors (GM), D.R. Horton (DHI), Northrop Grumman

Tuesday 7/22 – After Close: Texas Instruments (TXN), SAP (SE), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One (COF)

Wednesday 7/23 – Before Open: AT&T (T), GE Vernova (GEV), Freeport‑McMoRan (FCX), AT&T, General Dynamics

Wednesday 7/23 – After Close: Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), ServiceNow (NOW), IBM (IBM), Chipotle (CMG)

Thursday 7/24 – Before Open: American Airlines (AAL), Nokia (NOK), Dow (DOW), Southwest (LUV), Honeywell (HON)

Thursday 7/24 – After Close: Intel (INTC)

Friday 7/25 – Before Open: Centene (CNC)

On the economic calendar, the ECB rate decision will be the highlight. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. Other than that, regional flash PMI indices will be released. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.