Surprise, surprise: Winning M&A strategies for turbulent times.

We began 2025 feeling cautiously optimistic about an uptick in M&A over the course of the year but also warned of some wild cards that could spoil the party. Those cards turned out to be a lot wilder than even we had imagined: financial markets have been bouncing up and down like a yo-yo on the daily news flow out of Washington DC, where talk of tariffs has been louder—and action on deregulation has been slower—than expected. Meanwhile, regional conflicts are heating up and long-term interest rates in the US and Europe have defied expectations.

For all the surprises, deals are getting done—and dealmakers are finding ways to navigate through the uncertainties that prevail in today’s M&A market. M&A volumes globally continue to decline: they dropped by 9% in the first half of 2025 compared with the first half of 2024, while deal values are up 15%. We continue to see transactions in companies with a local focus within national borders, as well as in service companies or others less susceptible to tariffs. Great companies with strong cash flow and healthy prospects in any territory or sector are still being bought and sold. However, the market has not been kind to the many companies falling outside these parameters. In the US, for example, a PwC Pulse Survey from May 2025 showed that, in response to the tariff uncertainty, 30% of companies had paused or revisited deals. We expect dealmakers to feel the continued fallout over the coming months.

M&A isn’t going away, though. It’s a fundamental part of corporate culture and the lifeblood of the private equity (PE) world. Indeed, that same PwC Pulse Survey shows that 51% of US companies are still pursuing deals—a clear sign that transformation and business model reinvention remain a top priority. It’s a reflection of the new era we have entered, one in which artificial intelligence (AI) and new competitive dynamics are reshaping the corporate landscape, with AI a catalyst for industry disruption and change. As this new generation of technologies takes hold, it’s likely to spark more deal activity.

In this context, dealmakers across the globe are understandably asking, ‘What’s the best course of action to follow?’

High stakes, hard choices

In today’s M&A market with such complex and sometimes contradictory trends, dealmakers are having to figure out their next move. The new realities they face include the following:

Uncertainty may be the new constant. Over the past five years, the M&A market has been defined by near-constant change. The initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic brought dealmaking to a standstill, followed by a sharp rebound and record levels of activity. Since then, however, with higher interest rates and shifting geopolitical and regulatory environments, the pendulum has swung back towards caution. Today’s more complex and unpredictable market presents dealmakers with a far less forgiving backdrop. The result is an M&A environment in which elevated levels of uncertainty are not only pervasive but also structural. For dealmakers, progress starts with accepting that uncertainty is likely to be the new permanent state, which means that they will need to find ways to continuously plan and prepare for it rather than waiting for it to pass.

Capital allocation is facing a new set of trade-offs. Capital is no longer freely flowing—and nowhere is that more apparent than in the growing tug-of-war between M&A and AI investment. Big Tech companies, including Microsoft and Meta, have announced plans to collectively spend hundreds of billions of dollars this year alone to build out AI infrastructure, talent and capability development. This is sparking a super cycle of capital spending, which points towards multi-trillion-dollar global investments over the next five years. The tech spending is not just on AI. Rather, we are in a time of rapid technological ferment in all sectors that is forcing CEOs, boards and dealmakers to make tougher decisions about capital allocation. For some, that means fewer or smaller deals. For others, it means using partnerships, minority stakes, or carve-outs to pursue strategic goals while preserving balance sheet strength. Capital discipline today is about making deliberate and measured choices. Organic or inorganic growth? How much to spend on tech? And on AI? It all combines to make capital allocation one of the most important and daunting decisions for executives today.

AI’s innovation potential will bring disruption and M&A opportunities. The rapid advance of new AI technologies has jolted the corporate world into a new phase of high-stakes transformation. For acquirers, this presents both risk and opportunity: the risk of acquiring a business on the brink of disruption and the opportunity to harness new technologies to innovate and gain a competitive edge. The M&A market is increasingly reflecting this divide, with rising demand for capability-driven deals, such as Google’s proposed $32bn acquisition of Wiz, and a reassessment of traditional assets through an AI lens. The next six to 12 months will be critical for leaders to reposition their companies for the next wave of innovation. The investment in digital infrastructure and energy to support the growth in AI has already started, and companies across industries are rapidly developing AI agents to enhance productivity, reduce costs and unlock new revenue opportunities. Yet making the most of this new tech wave is difficult and expensive. Companies working to embed AI in their business and operating models face challenges ranging from execution risk to cultural resistance. Nonetheless, as our latest CEO Survey revealed, the cost of inaction is far greater: 40% of CEOs say their companies won’t survive the next decade if they don’t chart a new path.

The data on global M&A transactions across all sectors in the first half of 2025 reflects this tension between understandable caution in the face of greater uncertainty and, at the same time, urgency about moving forward with transformation plans. If the current pace of dealmaking continues, total deal volume for 2025 may fall below 45,000—the lowest level in more than a decade. At the same time, the rise in deal values signals a trend towards larger transactions: the number of deals greater than $1bn in value is up 19% since the same time last year, while those greater than $5bn in value are up 16%. The technology sector continues to see the most M&A activity, but deal activity is widespread across sectors. And while overall deal activity remains subdued in most countries, there are exceptions—for instance, India and the Middle East, where deal volumes increased by 18% and 13%, respectively.

US stocks surged to close near the highs of the session on Monday after a US-China deal to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs offered relief to markets worried about a trade war.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) soared nearly 3.3% to its highest level since March 3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 2.8%, or more than 1,100 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led gains, rocketing up 4.3%.

Wall Street notched a banner day after the US and China put tariffs on pause for 90 days, as the scope of the tariff reductions surprised investors. The US is dropping its duties on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China is lowering its 125% tariff on US goods to 10%.

Read more: The latest on Trump’s tariffs

Investors jumped into shares of Big Tech megacaps bruised by trade war worries. AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) popped more than 5%, with Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) also surged.

President Trump on Monday signed an executive order aimed at lowering prices on drugs sold in the US, after promising on social media to bring in cuts of at least 59%. The plans could end up raising prices overseas, boosting revenue for pharma companies, a White House official said, per Axios.

Meanwhile, the dollar (DX=F) and US Treasury yields (^TNX) climbed, as oil (CL=F, BZ=F) powered higher to lead a rally in commodities.

Traders will get their first sense of the initial inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs with the release of key inflation data this week. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due Tuesday, followed by retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.

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21 updates

Charter Communications Jumps as Subs Top Estimates Charter Communications (CHTR) stock soared to lead S&P 500 gainers Friday after the company added more mobile phone lines and lost fewer video customers than analysts had expected in the first quarter. The owner of Spectrum cable, internet, and phone services generated $13.74 billion in revenue, up slightly year-over-year and above the $13.68 billion Visible Alpha forecast. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $8.42, up nearly 12% from the year-ago quarter but still 7 cents shy of estimates. Charter added 514,000 mobile phone lines in the quarter, better than the roughly 477,000 that analysts were expecting. The company lost 60,000 internet subscribers, more than expected, but about 9,000 of those losses were due to the January wildfires in California. The company also lost fewer video subscribers than estimated at 181,000, much improved from the 405,000-subscriber decline a year ago. Charter said its narrowing loss was “driven by new and simplified pricing and packaging,” like its bundle that gives cable subscribers access to the ad-supported tier of a number of streaming services. TradingView Charter shares were up 11% in late trading. With today’s surge, the stock has moved back into positive territory for 2025. -Aaron McDade

Stocks Trigger ‘100% Accurate’ Bullish Signal The stock market just hit a milestone that some market watchers say is a sure sign of more gains ahead. Stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Thursday completed a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT), which is realized when the share of rising stocks increases from a moving average of less than 40% to more than 61.5% within a 10-day period. The rare occurrence, which has only been seen 19 times in the last 80 years, is considered a sign of increasing market momentum driven by broad bullish sentiment. The Charging Bull sculpture near the New York Stock Exchange. Angela Weiss / AFP / Getty Images “This signal has been 100% accurate since WWII, with the S&P 500 higher 6- and 12-months later every single time,” according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Looking at the last 19 ZBT signals, the S&P 500 has averaged a 6-month return of 14.8% and a 1-year return of 23.4%, according to Detrick. Stocks have rebounded from their “Liberation Day” slump amid optimism that the White House is eager to defuse tensions with China, which the administration has slapped with tariffs totaling 145% this year. The S&P 500 was up slightly on Friday after rising more than 1.5% in each of the last three sessions. Not everyone is sold on ZBT’s predictive power. Technical analyst Tom McClellan, in 2015, examined Breadth Thrusts between 1929 and 1934 and found them to be much less reliable bullish signals. The first signal in this period came in November 1930, and it did precede a strong upswing. “But its bullish effect petered out after just a few months, and the bear market was back on,” McClellan wrote. Over the next two years, four more Breadth Thrusts failed to break the bear market. “It was only in April 1933 that there was finally a good signal that led to follow-on buying,” McClellan said. But that signal was followed by two more in 1934 that didn’t come to much. McClellan was writing in 2015, when a ZBT signal was triggered just months after stocks hit a record high. “I cannot offer much in the way of optimistic commentary about this current ZBT signal,” McClellan wrote, “especially since it has occurred at a point that appears to be the early stage of a new downtrend.” Stocks did rise after that ZBT signal, but it was one of the weakest ZBT rallies on record, with the S&P 500 up just 1.4% and 7% over the next 6 and 12 months, respectively, according to Detrick’s data. -Colin Laidley

Gold Levels to Watch as Metal Retreats From Record High Gold (XAUUSD) lost ground again Friday, extending a bumpy ride for the precious metal. Gold surged to its all-time high of near $3,500 early Tuesday before plunging on Wednesday, as investors digested headlines on tariffs and investors reassessed their appetite for risk. The price of gold has gained about 25% since the start of the year, boosted by worries that tariffs could slow economic growth and reignite inflation, sending investors flocking to the safe-have asset that is often seen a hedge against rising prices. After gold hits its record high earlier this week, it staged a dramatic intraday reversal to form a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. The recent downside move also coincided with a steep drop in the relative strength index (RSI) below overbought levels, indicating a strong momentum shift. Source: TradingView.com. Zooming out, the commodity has trended sharply higher since mid-December, replicating a basic Elliot Wave pattern with five distinct price swings, which is then typically followed by a corrective phase. Investors should watch key support levels on gold’s chart around $3,145, $2,955, and $2,790, while also watching a critical overhead area near $3,500. Gold was down 1.8% at $3,290 an ounce in recent trading. Read the full technical analysis piece here.

-Timothy Smith

Tesla Extends Gains as US Loosens Self-Driving Car Rules Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped Friday, extending a rally that followed CEO Elon Musk’s pledged to spend more of his time focusing on the company and less working with the federal government, as the Trump administration moved to loosen rules around self-driving cars. The stock was up over 9% in recent trading, making it one of the top-performing stocks on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Friday. The Trump administration said Thursday it would loosen rules governing autonomous vehicles, in an effort to help U.S. firms compete with Chinese rivals. “This Administration understands that we’re in a race with China to out-innovate, and the stakes couldn’t be higher,” U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean P. Duffy said in a release. “As part of DOT’s innovation agenda, our new framework will slash red tape and move us closer to a single national standard that spurs innovation and prioritizes safety.” The move would benefit Tesla, which has long touted autonomous cars as central to its growth prospects. Musk said during the company’s earnings call Tuesday that Tesla expects to be selling fully autonomous rides in Austin, Texas, in June, with that business expanding to other cities this year and becoming financially material in the second half of 2026. Tesla shares have been rallying since the call, as investors focused on Musk’s commitment to spend more time at Tesla, and the company’s plans for a cheaper model and fully self-driving vehicles, rather than its weaker-than-expected results. Tesla shares have lost nearly one-third of their value since the start of 2025, far outpacing the decline of the benchmark S&P 500 index. TradingView With Friday’s gains, shares have added about 17% this week. Still, the electric vehicle maker’s stock has lost 30% of its value since the start of the year. -Nisha Gopalan

Alphabet Climbs as Analysts Raise Targets on AI-Driven Growth Shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed Friday as several analysts raised their price targets for the stock after the tech giant delivered better-than-expected quarterly results and touted the early success of AI features. Alphabet’s Class A shares were up 2% at $165 in recent trading, propelling it into the ranks of the best-performing stocks on the S&P 500 Friday. Citi analysts raised their price target to $200 from $195, pointing to growing usage and monetization of AI features in Search, including AI Overviews, which Google said has reached 1.5 billion monthly users roughly a year after launch. “We believe Google’s GenAI search tools are gaining traction,” Citi said. Bank of America, which likewise raised its price target to $200, said Google also “has data and distribution advantages” against rivals like ChatGPT developer OpenAI in terms of driving AI usage growth. Wedbush boosted its target to $200 as well, calling out Google’s growth potential “as investors gain more comfort related to the current macro environment, regulatory risk, and the impact of generative AI on Google Search.” Meanwhile, Jefferies analysts reiterated a price target of $200, while JPMorgan maintained a target of $195. CFO Anat Ashkenazi said during the company’s earnings call Thursday that Alphabet still plans to spend $75 billion in capital expenditures this year, most of which is expected to go toward building out the company’s AI infrastructure. The investments “should help us have a more resilient organization, irrespective of macroeconomic conditions,” Ashkenazi said.

T-Mobile US Sinks on Slow Phone Subscriber Growth Shares of T-Mobile US (TMUS) tumbled early Friday after the cellphone service provider said it added fewer wireless customers than expected and warned that customers would have to pay more if new tariffs raised phone prices. The company reported that it had 495,000 new postpaid phone customers in the first quarter, a drop of 37,000 from the year before. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for 499,000. In addition, the postpaid “churn rate,” a key metric for the industry, rose 5 basis points to 0.91%. Adding to the concerns for investors were comments by CEO Mike Sievert, who toldYahoo! Finance that T-Mobile is closely watching the situation with potential tariffs on cellphones, and said that if they happen and are significant, “that’s going to have to be borne by the customer. I mean, our model isn’t prepared for something like that.” The news offset the carrier’s better-than-expected financial results. T-Mobile posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58 on revenue that grew nearly 7% year-over-year to $20.89 billion, both above forecasts. The company increased its full-year outlook for core adjusted EBITDA and raised the lower end of its guidance ranges for net cash provided by operating activities and adjusted free cash flow. TradingView T-Mobile shares were down more than 9% recently, cutting the stock’s year-to-date gain to about 7%. -Bill McColl

Major Indexes on Track for Winning Week With three straight days of big gains under their belt, major U.S. stock indexes entered Friday’s session on track to post weekly gains for the second time in the last three weeks. Through Thursday’s close, the Dow had gained 2.4% so far this week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up 3.8% and 5.4%, respectively. Though sizable, this week’s gains are still lower than those recorded the week before last. The indexes remain in the red for the month, though the Nasdaq is just barely so. Through Thursday’s close, the Nasdaq Composite was down less than 1% in April, while the S&P 500 and Dow were off 2.2% and 4.5%, respectively. TradingView

US stocks fell on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting. Investors are watching closely to see how President Trump’s tariffs could influence the Fed’s stance on interest rates and the broader economic outlook.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid about 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped roughly 1%, or almost 400 points, leading the declines. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also fell 0.9%.

The countdown is on for the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday as policymakers begin their two-day meeting. Although the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, Wall Street will listen closely to Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on how the economy is holding up. Focus is on the Fed’s evaluation of the fallout from Trump’s trade offensive, which has yet to fully show up in economic data.

Read more: The latest on Trump’s tariffs

The president’s remarks over the weekend dimmed hopes of tariff relief, helping drive a retreat by the S&P 500 on Monday from its longest winning streak in 20 years. Investors weighed mixed signals from Trump and his top officials on Tuesday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some trade deals could be announced as soon as this week, as a report said the US and UK moved close to a deal. Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House, where the two leaders had an at-times terse exchange over Trump’s desire to make Canada the 51st US state.

Meanwhile, Ford (F) shares climbed back from earlier losses as investors digested its strong earnings report, which was muddied by tariff uncertainties. Barbie maker Mattel (MAT) added to the storm clouds, withdrawing its guidance and saying it would hike prices for some products. Trump also hinted late Monday that tariffs on pharmaceutical imports were on the way, dragging on Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), and others.

Highlights on the earnings docket on Tuesday include chipmaker AMD (AMD), server maker Super Micro (SMCI), and electric vehicle company Rivian (RIVN).

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President Donald Trump claimed victory over Europe in the U.S. tariffs war but acknowledged a “cost” to his surging trade offensive against superpower rival China as markets plunged again on Thursday (April 10, 2025).

Trump sought a victory lap at a White House cabinet meeting, saying the European Union had backed off from imposing retaliatory tariffs because of his tough stance on China.

Trump also acknowledged “a transition cost and transition problems,” but dismissed global market turmoil. “In the end it’s going to be a beautiful thing.”

The White House clarified that levies on Chinese imports are now at a staggering total of 145%- not the previously reported 125%.

Wall Street stocks tumbled on mounting worries over the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s multi-front tariff war.

All three major U.S. stock indexes suffered steep losses, forfeiting much of the previous session’s gains as growing concerns over the escalating Washington-Beijing trade face-off dampened optimism over upbeat economic data and U.S.-Europe trade negotiations.

The S&P 500 was down 3.4% in late trading, slicing into Wednesday’s surge of 9.5% following Trump’s decision to pause many of his tariffs worldwide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1,048 points, or 2.6%, with a little less than an hour remaining in trading, and the Nasdaq composite was 4.3% lower.

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