The pressure is now on. From Canada to Japan, key trade deals are struggling to get over the finish line with just two weeks to go before President Trump’s tariff deadline.

Trump managed to firmed up a trade deal with the United Kingdom last week, and its European Union neighbors are apparently pushing for a similarly styled deal despite fits and starts in talks.

According to reports, the EU now expects a 10% “reciprocal” tariff to be the starting point for an US-EU trade deal. The FT reported last Thursday that the EU is pushing for a deal modeled on the US-UK agreement. Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports after various tariff “pauses” lapse July 9.

Starting Monday, Trump’s tariffs will affect washing machines, fridges and ovens. This could mean higher prices for everyday items in the US.

Meanwhile, in Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government threatened to hike tariffs by late July on US imports of steel and aluminum, weeks after Trump ballooned US levies on those metals to 50%. At the G7 this week, Trump and Carney both expressed optimism on a trade deal between the countries.

The furious push follows Trump’s recent warning that he would soon send letters setting unilateral tariff rates, raising questions about the status of negotiations and a return to his “Liberation Day” tariffs that roiled markets. Trump instituted a pause on his most punishing duties that expires July 9.

Trump scored a legal win on Friday, as the Supreme Court decline to expedite a challenge from two family-owned businesses, including toy maker Learning Resources.

The case is one of several legal challenges working its way through the court system.

Meanwhile, the US economy is still figuring out the effects of the tariffs. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said as the central bank held interest rates steady last week that the Fed is still waiting to see the effects of the tariffs on prices.

“We’re beginning to see some effects, and we do expect to see more of them over the coming months,” he said.

He said the Fed needs more data, saying “the pass-through of tariffs to consumer price inflation is a whole process that’s very uncertain.”

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world.

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‘My podcast makes a lot more’: Kara Swisher reacts to Trump’s Truth Social going public

New York CNN —

For the first time in almost 30 years, part of Donald Trump’s business empire has gone public. Trading started with a bang, but the frenzy eased considerably by the closing bell, with shares ending well off their highs of the day.

Trump Media & Technology Group, the owner of struggling social media platform Truth Social, began its long-delayed journey as a public company at Tuesday’s opening bell under the ticker symbol “DJT.”

The stock surged about 56% at the open, to $78, and trading was briefly halted for volatility. Trump Media shares stabilized around $70 before fizzling. By the closing bell, Trump Media ended at $57.99, up by a more modest 16% on the day.

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Despite the late-day slide, Wall Street is still assigning Trump Media an eye-popping valuation of nearly $11 billion — a price tag that experts warn is untethered to reality.

Shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp., the shell company that became Trump Media Tuesday morning, have spiked more than 200% so far this year. That includes a 35% surge Monday after the deal closed. Shares popped again at the start of trading Tuesday — investors’ first opportunity to trade the stock after the merger, under the new DJT ticker.

The skyrocketing share price comes despite the fact that Trump Media is burning through cash; piling up losses; and its main product, Truth Social, is losing users.

“This is a very unusual situation. The stock is pretty much divorced from fundamentals,” said Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business, who has been studying initial public offerings (IPOs) for over 40 years.

Ritter said the closest parallel would be GameStop, AMC and other so-called meme stocks that skyrocketed during Covid-19 as an army of retail traders piled in. He said Trump Media is likely worth somewhere around $2 a share — nowhere near its closing stock price of $58.

“The underlying business doesn’t seem to be worth much. There is no evidence this is going to become a large, highly profitable company,” he said. “I’m reasonably confident the stock price will eventually drop to $2 a share and could even go below that if the company blows through the money it got from the merger.”

The eye-popping valuation is a massive windfall for Trump, who owns a dominant stake of 79 million shares.

At Tuesday’s opening price of nearly $78, that stake is worth nearly $6 billion, although lock-up restrictions likely prevent Trump from selling or even borrowing against those shares anytime soon. The value of Trump’s stake ended at $4.6 billion at the closing bell.

Trump Media generated just $3.4 million of revenue through the first nine months of last year, according to filings. The company lost $49 million over that span.

And yet the market is valuing Trump Media at approximately $11 billion.

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For context, Reddit was only valued at $6.4 billion at its IPO last week — even though it generated 160 times more revenue than Trump Media. (Reddit hauled in $804 million in revenue in 2023, compared with Trump Media’s annualized revenue of about $5 million.)

“At these levels, it appears untethered to its underlying business results,” said Matthew Kennedy, senior IPO strategist at Renaissance Capital. “Eventually, valuations tend to fall back on fundamentals. That means this stock is definitely at risk of plummeting back down to earth.”

Michael Ohlrogge, an associate professor of law at the NYU School of Law, told CNN there is “no way to square the current stock price with anything that would be called a rational valuation for this company.”

Truth Social is tiny

Truth Social faces real challenges and is still dwarfed by its rivals.

Truth Social had just 494,000 monthly active US users on iOS and Android combined in February, according to Similarweb stats provided to CNN. That’s a small fraction of the 75 million on X (formerly known as Twitter) and 142 million on Facebook.

Even Threads had more than 10 times the number of monthly active users that Truth Social had in February, according to Similarweb.

Not only that, but Truth Social is shrinking. Its monthly active users plunged 51% year over year in February, Similarweb stats show. The number of unique visitors to Truth Social’s website was 648,000, down 20% year over year.

Kennedy described Trump Media as a “meme-SPAC,” alluding to both its astronomical valuation and the fact it was formed through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.

“Stocks that trade on momentum are subject to falling rapidly,” he said.

Jonathan Macey, a law professor at Yale, told CNN last week that the Digital World stock price is “clearly a bubble.”

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Of course, history shows that bubbles can always inflate further, and it’s very difficult to pinpoint when they will pop.

That means Trump Media’s share price could keep skyrocketing for now — even if those gains are not backed up by fundamentals. In theory, a rival company or wealthy group could swoop in and acquire Trump Media even at these price levels, although Ritter said that’s very unlikely.

“We’ve already seen with other meme stocks that even if they eventually fall back to reflecting a fundamental value, the process can take quite a long time,” said Ohlrogge, the NYU professor. “There’s every reason to believe that this stock could remain at highly inflated prices much longer, due to the enthusiasm that Trump’s supporters have for it.”

‘Stay away from it’

Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, told CNN that Trump Media is probably not worth anything close to what the market is valuing it at.

“But it doesn’t really matter,” he said.

Tuttle noted that there is a history of SPACs spiking on their first day of trading, and he placed options bets that stand to make money if the stock shoots up.

“Because of what this is, and because it’s Trump — you’ve got people expecting this thing will take off [on Tuesday,]” he said.

But Tuttle advised everyday investors to use extreme caution trading Trump Media, noting the implied volatility is “insane.”

“Stay away from it,” said Tuttle, who has sold his shares of Digital World but still owns options that would pay out if the stock rises sharply. “Normally, I wouldn’t touch this with a 10-foot pole. But I’m not playing with much money and I already made a lot on this. If I wake up tomorrow and it’s trading at $1, oh well.”

Beyond the valuation concerns, there are other risks involved in Trump Media.

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For example, this company’s future is inextricably linked to that of one person: Trump.

“There is a unique key man risk because Donald Trump is the chairman, top shareholder and the most popular user. He is one man, and he’s 77 years old,” said Kennedy.

Not only that, but Trump is facing felony prosecution in multiple simultaneous cases.

Trump Media noted that risk in SEC filings, saying: “Donald J. Trump is the subject of numerous legal proceedings, the scope and scale of which are unprecedented for a former President of the United States and current candidate for that office. An adverse outcome in one or more of the ongoing legal proceedings in which President Trump is involved could negatively impact TMTG and its Truth Social platform.”

A history of Trump bankruptcies

Not only does Trump himself face reputational issues, but his companies have a history of going bankrupt.

The last Trump company to go public, Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts in 1995, used the same DJT ticker symbol. It went bankrupt in 2004 and was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange.

Trump Media even highlighted Trump’s history of bankruptcies as a risk in its SEC filing.

“A number of companies that were associated with President Trump have filed for bankruptcy. There can be no assurances that TMTG will not also become bankrupt,” the company said.

Another question is what happens when the lock-up restrictions on Trump and other key insiders lapse in the coming months.

Trump’s legal troubles could give him a reason to sell his commanding stake, an outcome that would threaten Trump Media’s share price.

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Betting on a Trump victory in November

Other insiders, including the sponsor of the SPAC, would also be able to sell.

Like any social media business, Truth Social faces pressure to grow its user base, expand its advertising business and build a subscription service.

Those tasks are complicated by the polarizing political backdrop where at least some portion of the country views the Trump movement skeptically.

Kennedy said that in many ways, Trump Media going public amounts to a “multibillion-dollar bet” on a second Trump term, a return to the White House that could be lucrative for his social media network.

“If he wins in November, Truth Social will probably be the primary means of presidential communication,” said Kennedy. “That’s the bet here.”

Ohlrogge, the NYU professor, agrees that the election could prove to be a real turning point for this company.

“If Trump were to lose the 2024 election, I’d imagine the stock price would crater quite quickly,” he said. “If he were to win, it could conceivably stay higher for longer, maybe much longer.”

Sept 29 (Reuters) – Unseasonably warm autumn weather from the United States to Europe is denting sales of heavy sweaters and coats as the critical holiday shopping period approaches, executives at major retailers including H&M (HMb.ST) , opens new tab said, and some stores are already slashing prices to avoid piles of unsold inventory.

In the past year, clothing retailers have sought to clear excess stock that had piled up due to a shift in consumer demand to essentials from discretionary items like clothing.

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But with fourth-quarter temperatures expected to start off warm, according to weather tracking firm Weather Trends International, stores carrying winter styles and gear could find themselves loaded with inventory at the end of the season.

H&M’s upmarket brand Cos has started to offer a 20% off sale online and in stores for knitwear and outerwear clothing including merino wool sweaters and long puffer coats. H&M CEO Helena Helmersson told Reuters on Wednesday that shoppers are putting off purchases of “heavy” autumnal items amid the warmer than usual weather.

“When it’s 26 degrees (Celsius, 79 F) you don’t tend to sell coats,” Pepco’s executive chairman, Andy Bond, told analysts on a call on Thursday.

In the United States, temperatures could rise by 2 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit on average in the October-December period compared with last year, according to Weather Trends International.

“The month from Black Friday to Christmas is much warmer than a year ago which will result in more excess inventory and steeper markdowns,” said Bill Kirk, CEO and founder of Weather Trends International.

Item 1 of 3 Christmas shoppers walk along Grafton Street in Dublin, Ireland, December 19, 2021. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo [1/3] Christmas shoppers walk along Grafton Street in Dublin, Ireland, December 19, 2021. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights , opens new tab

“If winter clothing doesn’t sell well, that would be a problem for the industry this holiday season and if that turns out to be the case, then we may see a lot of discounting of that merchandise in the early part of 2024,” Morningstar Research analyst David Swartz said.

Unfavourable weather usually becomes a major problem for retailers as they place orders and ship items for important seasons far in advance to ensure enough products are on shelves to meet customer demand.

“The issue with most large volume retailers is that 75% to 85% of their manufacturing is dependent upon a very long development cycle … so once heat or cold begins to affect the overall buying trends they would have already committed on those orders,” said Robert Woods, founder of Vision Brands USA.

Kristen D’Arcy, chief marketing officer of apparel retailer True Religion, told Reuters in an interview, “What has been a pleasant surprise is continuing to see the short-sleeve T-shirts and the shorts continue to sell really well as a result of the warm weather.”

“Our deepest buys for the season are not in outerwear, which would be the heavy jackets for the very, very cold weather but … in active, which are lighter-weight tops and bottoms, denim of all different varieties … then lighter-weight knits.”

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.N) , opens new tab also said there was strong demand for “seasonless products” in the second quarter, particularly in the men’s category, as customers picked out year-round clothing items and styles.

When retailers make an attempt to stock seasonally appropriate clothing and it does not sell, storage of such items becomes expensive.

Simon Wolfson, CEO of British clothing retailer Next (NXT.L) , opens new tab , said that in terms of the sales outlook, “The difference that weather will make in December will be greater than the difference in how the consumer’s feeling.”

Reporting by Ananya Mariam Rajesh in Bengaluru Additional reporting by James Davey and Helen Reid in London Editing by Matthew Lewis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. , opens new tab

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Exhaustion is a primary weapon in President Donald Trump’s political arsenal. He will grind on a subject longer than ordinary humans can bear to listen — and thus appears to win arguments simply by sticking to them long past tolerance. His cunning remora, provocateur Stephen K. Bannon, summed up the strategy in a quotable scatological burst: Trump “floods the zone with shit.”

But there exists a voting bloc that never tires, never flags. Operating across continents and centuries, traders of government bonds have peered narrowly at the performance of world leaders and registered judgment in cool percentages. They are the villains of countless conspiracy theories, these minions of international finance, precisely because they cannot be steered by populist frenzies or demagogic appeals.

No statesman is immune to these voters — not for long, anyway. Napoleon Bonaparte fretted over French credit even as he conquered Europe. Abraham Lincoln tracked the price of Union bonds as intently as the movement of Union troops. In 1939, as World War II began, bond markets already signaled that Britain, the United States and France were stronger than Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union.

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This unsleeping, unfeeling, unsentimental voting bloc forced Trump to change course on his tariff tornado. Other forces sagged into exhaustion in the face of Trump’s obsession, but the votes of the bond markets kept piling up, second by second, hour by hour, day by day. Forget about memes, sick burns and capital letters on Truth Social. The market eschews parades and petitions and marathon speeches. It is an endless murmur of individual transactions, each one a vote, and a landslide swept Trump away.

At the risk of oversimplifying a complex business:

Government bonds and notes are, in a sense, loans to public entities backed by a promise to repay by a certain date at a certain interest rate. The terms that buyers of bonds are willing to accept reflect their confidence — or lack thereof — in the issuing entity. A government that inspires great confidence can sell long-term bonds at low interest rates. An entity that stirs more doubts must pay higher interest on a shorter schedule to attract buyers. Declining confidence is measured almost instantaneously by rising yields offered for bonds. The message is clear: Buyers must be paid more to accept a greater perceived risk.

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What makes the bond market such a sharp-edged voting bloc is that all participants are aligned in their goals, regardless of spin doctors and hype merchants. They want to maximize profit while minimizing risk — two sliding scales that allow for plenty of economic competition. Everyone is asking, always: Is the borrowing entity getting stronger or weaker? Are its prospects waxing or waning over time? Am I more likely or less to be paid back in full?

This fundamental monotony makes bond markets less interesting but more potent than stock markets, which trade shares of companies. Stock, or “equity,” markets trade in hopes, wishes and stories of the next big thing. They are bewitching and delightful. Stock markets goggle at flashing casino lights. The continuously updated votes of bond buyers are largely immune to frenzies, for they are rendered by faceless throngs of buyers and sellers in places everywhere around the world, each bringing their own biases, baggage, anxieties and analyses to bear on their single question of risk.

Equity markets are so irrational, they have a lexicon of craziness. They’re prone to “bubbles” and “froth” and “irrational exuberance.” They cheerfully endure “corrections,” and they pray to “animal spirits.” The high-flying financiers of the bond markets are cunning but not irrational. They hunt fortunes in the incremental differences between one price and another, and they love the sport of hiding bad bonds among good. But at bottom, their business plods solemnly along, relentlessly measuring the ever-shifting asset of confidence.

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James Carville, the political counselor with a knack for words, famously declared that he wished to be reincarnated as the bond market. More than presidents or popes, he said, “you can intimidate anybody.” He was right about the market’s power but wrong about its motives. It doesn’t try to scare people; it coolly measures the degree to which people are scared. People listen because it does this one thing and does it well.

Which brings us back to Trump’s capitulation. Trump and his team tried to happy-talk their way past the stock market collapse, but the tireless voters weighed in. His attempt to brush off his defeat in the bond markets by saying that traders had gotten “yippy” fell flat. This is the world’s infrastructure of finance we’re talking about, and it’s built on the value of government promises. Yips have nothing to do with it.

And the pillar of this infrastructure is the credibility of the United States.