Europe Flight Delay Compensation Reform Coming, And It’s Bad News - One Mile at a Time
Europe Flight Delay Compensation Reform Coming, And It’s Bad News - One Mile at a Time

Europe Flight Delay Compensation Reform Coming, And It’s Bad News – One Mile at a Time

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Europe Flight Delay Compensation Reform Coming, And It’s Bad News

The European Union has the most consumer friendly policies in the world when it comes to what passengers are entitled to in the event that their flight is significantly delayed or canceled. This policy is known as EC261, and it entitles consumers to compensation in the range of €250-600. Since 2014, this policy has remained unchanged, which has been great for consumers. However, discussions are currently taking place to reform this policy. It seems inevitable that changes are coming, the question is just how drastic they’ll be. The changes we could see largely reflect the length of a delay that could trigger compensation, as well as how much compensation will be offered. It remains to be seen in what way the policy will be changed, exactly, though it does seem quite likely that we’ll see some changes. My take on the concept of EC261 reform: I love the European Union’s generous compensation scheme, since it pays big time. As much as I don’t like to see these changes, I can understand the logic.

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The European Union has the most consumer friendly policies in the world when it comes to what passengers are entitled to in the event that their flight is significantly delayed or canceled. This policy is known as EC261 (often referred to as EU261), and it entitles consumers to compensation in the range of €250-600 in the event of operational disruptions.

For over a decade now, since 2014, this policy has remained unchanged, which has been great for consumers. However, discussions are currently taking place to reform this policy. It seems inevitable that changes are coming, the question is just how drastic they’ll be.

EC261 reform closer to becoming a reality

For quite some time, there has been talk in the European Union about reforming EC261 policies. Recently, we’ve seen transport ministers of various member states meet in Luxembourg, to discuss reform. The changes we could see largely reflect the length of a delay that could trigger compensation, as well as how much compensation will be offered.

Under current policies:

If your flight covers a distance of under 1,500km (930 miles), you’re entitled to €250 compensation if you’re delayed by at least two hours

If your flight covers a distance of 1,500-3,500km (930-2,200 miles), you’re entitled to €400 compensation if you’re delayed by at least three hours

If your flight covers a distance of over 3,500km (2,200 miles), you’re entitled to €600 compensation if you’re delayed by at least four hours

According to a proposal supported by a majority of transport ministers, the policy could be updated as follows:

If your flight covers a distance of up to 3,500km, you’d be entitled to €300 compensation if you’re delayed by at least four hours

If your flight covers a distance of over 3,500km, you’d be entitled to €500 compensation if you’re delayed by at least six hours

As you can see, we’re potentially looking at a significant increase in the length of a delay triggering compensation, plus in some cases, a reduction in the amount offered.

It’s worth noting that there’s not unanimous support for this concept, though. For example, Germany is advocating for similar timelines to the current policies, but wants to update the amounts. Specifically, Germany wants compensation to be a flat €300, which would mean compensation for long haul flights would be cut in half.

Some other changes have been floated as well. For example, currently a missed connection would lead to compensation, assuming you arrive at your final destination with a significant delay. This is often the easiest way to trigger EC261 compensation, given the very shorty minimum connection times at many airports, where even a minor delay could trigger a missed connection. Under one proposal, a missed connection would only trigger compensation if the first flight is delayed by at least 90 minutes.

It remains to be seen in what way the policy will be changed, exactly, though it does seem quite likely that we’ll see some changes. The only thing that would likely prevent any reform is various parties not agreeing on what needs to be changed. The European Parliament also has a say in this, and seems a bit more pro-consumer.

EC261 reform is under serious consideration

My take on the concept of EC261 reform

As a consumer, of course I love the European Union’s generous compensation scheme. It’s the only part of the world where I almost hope for a flight delay, since it pays big time. So of course I don’t like to see this reformed the worse.

On the other hand, some people would argue that in reality, us consumers are paying indirectly for this generous compensation. I think that’s sort of true, but also not. I mean, airlines like EasyJet and Ryanair manage to operate and offer very low fares, despite having to abide by these policies (which isn’t to say that they don’t try to deny compensation whenever possible, but…). My point is simply that it’s not like reducing compensation will lead to lower fares in any sort of a noticeable way.

Is some reform unreasonable? While I don’t like to see it, perhaps it’s not unreasonable either. I mean, if you’re on a long haul journey and misconnect with a planned 35-minute layover at an airport like Helsinki (HEL), should you automatically receive €600? As much as I don’t like to see these changes, I can understand the logic…

The European Union’s policy has been very consumer friendly

Bottom line

The European Union is considering making changes to the region’s compensation scheme for flight delays and cancelations, which is the most generous that you’ll find anywhere in the world. There are various proposals being considered, but they all increase the length of delay required to trigger compensation, and/or reduce the amount of compensation offered. So we’ll mark this as “developing” for now, and I’m sure we’ll learn more soon…

What do you make of this potential EC261 reform?

Source: Onemileatatime.com | View original article

Thailand’s New Flight Delay & Cancelation Compensation Scheme

Thailand has just rolled out new protections for air travelers. Depending on the length of the delay and the type of flight, passengers are entitled to duty of care (food, accommodation, transportation, etc.), plus some cash compensation. This is a great development, though I hope that airlines actually follow through on their commitments. The cash compensation is based on issues not being due to extraordinary circumstances, so it’ll be interesting to see to what extent airlines try to get around that. The government insists it plans to hold airlines accountable, though let’s see if that’s actually the case. The compensation amounts aren’t that high, at least compared to Europe, where travelers potentially receive 600 EUR (~680 USD) compensation. The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) has introduced new passenger protections.

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The rights of airline passengers differ greatly around the globe, both in terms of duty of care and mandated compensation. Europe sets the gold standard for this, with its EU261 policy. There’s an exciting development, as Thailand has just rolled out a new compensation scheme for passengers. It’s a step in the right direction, though not quite as generous as what you’ll find in Europe.

Thailand’s new airline passenger rights policies

As of Tuesday, May 20, 2025, the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) has introduced new passenger protections. The level of protections offered differ based on the length of the delay, whether you’re traveling domestically or internationally, and the length of the flight. So, what can passengers expect?

For delays of at least two hours:

Airlines have to offer passengers complimentary food and drinks, either directly, or in the form of a voucher

Airlines have to provide passengers free communication, like access to phone calls or email

For delays of at least five hours:

Airlines have to compensate passengers 1,200 THB (~37 USD) for domestic flights or 1,500 THB (~46 USD) for international flights, in cash, or the equivalent in frequent flyer points or credits

Airlines have to provide passengers accommodation and transfers, if an overnight stay is required

Airlines have to give passengers the option to cancel their flight for a full refund

For delays of at least 10 hours:

Airlines have to provide passengers increased cash compensation based on the distance of the flight

Airlines have to compensate passengers at least 2,000 THB (~61 USD) for a flight of up to 1,500 kilometers, 3,500 THB (~107 USD) for a flight of 1,500 to 3,500 kilometers, and 4,500 THB (~137 USD) for a flight of over 3,500 kilometers

For flight cancelations, passengers are entitled to the same compensation as a delay of over 10 hours, assuming the cancelation was only announced within seven days of departure. The exception is that this doesn’t apply if the cancelation is due to unforeseeable and unavoidable circumstances, or if passengers are offered alternative flights within three hours of the original time.

Thailand has new protections for air travelers

These passenger protections are a great development

It seems that Thailand intends to heavily promote its new consumer protections for air travelers, as a way of marketing itself as a destination with reliable air transportation. It’s interesting to see these protections, given that Thai Airways is government owned (at least as of now), so the government may be paying out much of this compensation.

I’m happy to see these new protections, though admittedly the compensation amounts aren’t that high, at least compared to Europe, where travelers potentially receive 600 EUR (~680 USD) compensation.

Ultimately the devil will be in the details when it comes to the execution of this policy. The cash compensation is based on issues not being due to extraordinary circumstances, so it’ll be interesting to see to what extent airlines try to get around that. The government insists it plans to hold airlines accountable, though let’s see if that’s actually the case.

It’s great to see new consumer protections

Bottom line

Thailand has just rolled out new protections for air travelers. Depending on the length of the delay and the type of flight, passengers are entitled to duty of care (food, accommodation, transportation, etc.), plus some cash compensation. This is a great development, though I hope that airlines actually follow through on their commitments.

What do you make of Thailand’s new consumer protections for air travelers?

Source: Onemileatatime.com | View original article

Ouch: Major Capital One Venture X Lounge Access Changes

Capital One is making changes to the airport lounge access benefits on these cards. The changes include two main areas — lounge access for authorized users, and the ability to guest others into lounges. As of February 1, 2026, authorized users on the Capital One Venture X will no longer automatically receive any lounge access perks. Instead, card members will be able to pay $125 per authorized user to get lounge access, for up to four authorized users. The new $75,000 annual spending fee for authorized user lounge access is a value of up to $500,000 under the new system. The current $125 lounge access fee applies for all types of Capital One cards, including the personal version of the card. The ability for authorized Users to get Lounge access on the business card is a new development since the card currently allows you to add four authorized Users at no cost. There are no new fees for authorizedUser lounge access. There’s no option of designating whether you want authorized users to have lounge access or not. The default will be for them to have no access.

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The Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card (review) and Capital One Venture X Business (review) have in recent years become popular premium travel credit cards, offering great value. This includes everything from a $300 annual travel credit, to 10,000 anniversary bonus miles, to valuable airport lounge access.

Aspects of the cards almost seemed too good to be true, so unfortunately there’s an update, along those lines. Capital One is making changes to the airport lounge access benefits on these cards, and the changes are overwhelmingly negative (I suppose unless you consider fewer people potentially having lounge access to be a good thing, as crowding has become an issue).

Capital One lounge access changes February 2026

As of February 1, 2026, we’re going to see changes to Capital One lounge access, which impact access to Capital One Lounges, Capital One Landings, and Priority Pass lounges. The exact changes differ between the personal and business cards, since the cards also currently have different lounge access benefits.

These changes include two main areas — lounge access for authorized users, and the ability to guest others into lounges. Let me start by recapping the current policies, before talking about the updates.

With the Capital One Venture X:

The primary card member and up to four authorized users can all receive the same lounge access perks (there’s no cost to add those authorized users)

Card members can access Capital One Lounges with up to two guests, and Capital One Landings with up to one guest

Card members receive a Priority Pass membership, with the ability to bring two guests

With the Capital One Venture X Business:

The primary card member receives lounge access, but authorized users don’t receive any lounge access perks

Card members can access Capital One Lounges with up to two guests, and Capital One Landings with up to one guest

Card members receive a Priority Pass membership, with the ability to bring two guests for free

Here’s how Capital One describes the logic for these changes, in a statement:

As airport lounges continue to grow in popularity across the industry, we’ve seen our customers increasingly encounter wait times to enter them. It is important to us that we maintain a great airport lounge experience for our Venture X and Venture X Business customers, while continuing to deliver best-in-class premium travel cards at an accessible price point. To address this, we will be making some changes to lounge access for additional cardholders (authorized users and account managers) and guests. Venture X and Venture X Business primary cardholders will continue to receive complimentary access to over 1,300 lounges, including Capital One Lounges, Capital One Landings and Priority Pass lounges. We thought carefully about these changes, and we remain committed to delivering a differentiated premium travel card for our customers.

There are major Capital One lounge access changes

Capital One $125 authorized user lounge access fee

As of February 1, 2026, authorized users on the Capital One Venture X will no longer automatically receive any lounge access perks. Instead, card members will be able to pay $125 per authorized user to get lounge access, for up to four authorized users.

Note that this will apply to both the personal and business card, so the ability for authorized users to get lounge access on the business card is a new development.

This applies for all types of lounge access, including for Capital One Lounges, Capital One Landings, and Priority Pass memberships. Obviously this is a major change, since the personal version of the card currently allows you to add four authorized users at no cost, which is a value of up to $500 under the new system.

As of February 2026, you’ll have the option of designating whether you want authorized users to have lounge access or not. The default will be for them to have no access (in which case there’s no fee for authorized users).

There are new fees for authorized user lounge access

Capital One $75,000 annual spending for lounge guests

As of February 1, 2026, the Capital One Venture X and Capital One Venture X Business will no longer automatically come with complimentary guests for access to Capital One Lounges and Capital One Landings.

Instead, only the card member as such will receive access. The exception is if you spend $75,000 per year across the card account, in which case you’ll continue to enjoy the same guesting privileges. This includes two guests at Capital One Lounges, and one guest at Capital One Landings.

Just to clarify a few points:

The $75,000 spending requirement is per calendar year and per account (between the primary card member and authorized users)

Spending in the 2025 calendar year is the first to count toward this, and if you unlock the spending requirement, you get the increased lounge access for the current calendar year and the following calendar year

The ability to guest people into lounges will apply to both the primary card member and authorized users who have paid $125 for the lounge access pass

Card members can still guest people into lounges at the rate of $45 per adult, and $25 per guest 17 and under, while children under two remain complimentary

There’s a new spending requirement for guesting people

Capital One Priority Pass benefits changes

As of February 1, 2026, the Capital One Venture X Priority Pass membership will no longer come with guesting privileges. This only applies to the personal version of the card, and not to the business version of the card (which continues to allow two complimentary guests).

Instead, those with a Priority Pass membership through the Venture X will have to pay $35 per person for any guests they bring into Priority Pass lounges. This applies even if the $75,000 spending requirement is met, as that only allows guesting at Capital One Lounge and Capital One Landing locations.

There are even cuts to Priority Pass lounge access

My take on Capital One lounge access changes

Obviously these Capital One Venture X lounge access changes are negative, as card members will be getting less value than before. In fairness, it has been almost five years since the Venture X was introduced, so it’s hardly surprising to see some significant changes.

Capital One is following the industry trend here, as lounge crowding has become a major issue. I suspect these changes will materially reduce crowding levels, since there will be no more free lounge access for authorized users, and even the ability to guest for free will come with a significant spending requirement.

I guess if there’s one silver lining, it’s that on the business version of the card, it’ll be possible to add lounge access for authorized users at a reasonable cost, which isn’t currently the case.

When it comes to the new spending requirement for guesting people into lounges, at least the Venture X is a rewarding card for everyday spending, so many people will be able to efficiently reach that spending requirement.

Obviously this is a negative change. It’ll probably cause quite a few people to cancel the card. Personally, it doesn’t change the card’s fundamental value proposition, since I consider the $395 annual fee to be offset by the $300 annual travel credit and 10,000 anniversary bonus miles, and everything else is just the icing on the cake.

The change to Priority Pass guesting on the personal version of the card is also significant, if you ask me, since it doesn’t set a great precedent. Up until now, most premium cards in the US have allowed at least two guests into lounges.

This also reflects the bigger reality of premium credit cards. There’s such a race for premium market share between card issuers, and the economics also have to work. So presumably Capital One hopes that it’ll generate more in fees with these changes, while also increasing card member spending. It’s obvious that this isn’t just about limiting lounge crowding, but is also about economics, since even Priority Pass guesting is being cut.

I can’t say that I’m surprised to see these changes

Bottom line

As of February 2026, Capital One is making huge changes to its Venture X lounge access policy.

Authorized users on both the personal and business version of the card will need to pay $125 per authorized user for lounge access, which is a huge devaluation for the personal version, and an improvement for the business version. There will also be a $75,000 annual spending requirement to guest people into Capital One Lounges and Capital One Landings. Lastly, the personal version of the card will no longer offer complimentary guests at Priority Pass lounges.

This is a negative development, and will likely cause many people to reconsider these cards. Personally, it doesn’t alter the fundamental value proposition of the Venture X for me, so it won’t cause me to cancel. And there’s no denying that lounge crowding has become a serious issue, so hopefully this makes a significant difference.

What do you make of these Capital One Venture X lounge access changes?

Source: Onemileatatime.com | View original article

The British Airways Club: BA Massively Overhauls Loyalty Program

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A few months ago, British Airways announced plans to make huge changes to its loyalty program, including the introduction of elite status based purely on spending. This is a reminder that these changes kick in as of today — say goodbye to British Airways Executive Club, and hello to The British Airways Club.

British Airways changes how elite status is earned

As of April 1, 2025, British Airways has completely changed how elite status is earned through its loyalty program. To go along with this, the program has also been rebranded. It’s no longer known as British Airways Executive Club, and is instead known as The British Airways Club.

Historically, British Airways status has been earned with Tier Points, and the number of Tier Points you earn depends on the length of the flight and the fare class you’re traveling in. While British Airways has awarded Avios based on spending since late 2023, Tier Points haven’t been strictly revenue based. That has finally changed.

As British Airways describes it, the new program gives members more ways to earn Tier Points, including for spending on co-branded credit cards, and when paying for extras, like seat selection and additional baggage. With the new program, members earn one Tier Point per £1 of eligible spending. Along with that, we’re seeing the status qualification requirements change:

The British Airways Club Bronze status requires 3,500 Tier Points

The British Airways Club Silver status requires 7,500 Tier Points

The British Airways Club Gold status requires 20,000 Tier Points

The British Airways Club Gold Guest List status requires 65,000 Tier Points, with at least 52,000 earned through British Airways marketed flights, qualifying add-ons, and British Airways Holidays packages), and 40,000 to retain (with at least 32,000 earned through British Airways marketed flights, qualifying add-ons, and British Airways Holiday packages)

British Airways has introduced new elite requirements

Qualifying spending includes not just flights (before government taxes and fees), but also ancillary spending, like seat selection and excess baggage. On top of that, The British Airways Club offers members several additional ways to earn Tier Points:

Members are able to earn up to 1,000 Tier Points per year for contributing to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF); you earn one Tier Point and 10 Avios per £1 spent on these purchases

Members are able to earn limitless Tier Points from booking British Airways Holidays vacation packages, with Tier Points earned based on the price of the entire package, with no limit in place, at the rate of one Tier Point per £1 spent

As of later in 2025, members will be able to earn Tier Points on credit card spending; those with the British Airways American Express Premium Plus Card will be able to earn up to 2,500 Tier Points per year by spending on their card

Also later in 2025, we’ll see British Airways introduce new milestone benefits between tiers. Members will start with earning gifts of 2,500, 4,000, and 5,000 bonus Avios, at milestones within Bronze and Silver. Specifically, members will earn 2,500 Avios when passing 5,500 Tier Points, 4,000 Avios when passing 11,000 Tier Points, and 5,000 Avios when passing 16,000 Tier Points. That’s hardly much to get excited about.

So, how will partner flights credit to the new program? For partners on which British Airways doesn’t have fare information, members earn Tier Points as a percentage of the distance flown, based on the fare class, as seen below.

Tier Points earning rates on partner airlines

Presumably due to the negative feedback about these changes, British Airways is offering bonus Tier Points to those who register and book eligible flights. Registration is required by December 31, 2025, and you can fly through December 31, 2026. The bonus earnings rates are per segment, as seen below.

Bonus Tier Points earning opportunities

For those with existing bookings, here’s how British Airways describes what happens:

“Customers who already hold bookings for travel after 1 April 2025 will be awarded Tier Points based on a conversion of the existing method. Any existing bookings will earn proportionally the same number of Tier Points, or more, as they would today.”

Here’s how Colm Lacy, British Airways’ Chief Commercial Officer, describes these changes:

“The changes we have announced today underline our continued investment in our loyalty programme and in our customers. Based on our Members’ feedback, we’ve built on the changes we’ve already made – including how customers collect Avios and their membership year – in a way that we believe better rewards their loyalty and reflects their changing travel needs.” “While we have announced a number of positive changes today, I particularly wanted to highlight better rewarding our customers who book through British Airways Holidays and making this a permanent part of our proposition, removing the limit on earning. We know that many of our customers make their holiday plans during our annual January sale period, so it’s great to be able to announce this today.”

British Airways elite status is more costly to earn

My take on British Airways’ loyalty program changes

It can’t be overstated how massive these program changes are. For example, under the old program, leisure travelers could easily earn British Airways Gold status with a reasonable amount of spending. Under the new program, they’ll need to spend at least £20,000. That’s no small chunk of change, especially given the very limited elite perks that British Airways offers beyond just standard oneworld Emerald benefits.

A vast majority of leisure travelers have just been “priced out” of earning elite status, especially the higher tiers. I suppose British Airways’ play here is pretty obvious, and the company hopes that travelers will book super expensive vacation packages through the airline, so that they get rewarded for the entire cost of their trip. That’s high margin for the airline, so I get the motive. But still…

I also find it interesting how low the maximums are on how many Tier Points you can earn for non-flying and vacation package activity. Up to 1,000 Tier Points for sustainable aviation fuel? Great, that’ll get you 5% of the way to Gold status. 2,500 Tier Points for credit card spending? That’ll get you 12.5% of the way there.

You’ve also gotta love how British Airways markets these changes. No, this isn’t a devaluation, and there’s no acknowledgement of how status will be harder to earn for the average member. Instead, the changes “underline our continued investment in our loyalty programme and in our customers,” and it’s “based on our Members’ feedback.”

The spin, my gosh… I don’t get it, do airline executives think people buy this crap, or they just don’t care, and say whatever makes them feel better? Sure, there are absolutely elements of the changes that people may have asked for, like being able to earn status qualification through credit card spending, vacation packages, and ancillaries. But I guarantee you they didn’t ask for the goalposts to be moved this much.

Make no mistake, this is a huge devaluation

Bottom line

As of April 2025, British Airways has overhauled its loyalty program. The program has been rebranded from British Airways Executive Club to The British Airways Club. On top of that, the way that Tier Points can be earned has changed completely.

On the plus side, there are more ways to earn Tier Points, like with ancillaries, credit card spending, sustainable aviation fuel contributions, and more. The catch is that for most travelers, earning elite status has gotten a lot more expensive.

What do you make of British Airways’ loyalty program changes?

Source: Onemileatatime.com | View original article

Uh Oh: Virgin Atlantic Warns Of Weakening Transatlantic Demand

Virgin Atlantic is the first major transatlantic carrier to publicly acknowledge that transatlantic demand is weakening. Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith and Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr both made it clear that they’re not currently seeing a dip in demand across the Atlantic. Virgin Atlantic faces a unique challenge among European carriers, since the airline operates exclusively among the US point of sale, which is very much a post-negotiable trend. The airline reported a modest profit of £20 million in its 2024 financial results, the first time since the start of the pandemic that the airline hasn’t lost money. It’s good to see the airline finally turning a small profit, and it’ll be interesting to see if Delta releases updated guidance for Q2 2025. It seems likely that Delta is also seeing weakening demand between the US and London, as the airlines coordinate their schedules. For now we can just mark this as “developing here,” but there are some bigger trends here.

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It’s an interesting time for global aviation, primarily due to geopolitical factor that are outside of the industry’s control. A lot of this has to do with President Trump’s policies on tariffs, plus the general economic uncertainty we’ve seen.

For example, a few weeks back, Delta slashed its Q1 2025 guidance, citing a reduction in consumer confidence. We’ve also seen a dip in demand between the United States and Canada. However, up until now, airline executives have insisted that transatlantic demand is continuing to be strong. That brings up an interesting update that was provided today…

Virgin Atlantic is seeing transatlantic demand dip

Virgin Atlantic has today published its 2024 financial results, where we’re seeing the airline report a modest profit of £20 million, which is the first time since the start of the pandemic that the airline hasn’t lost money. The SkyTeam carrier has been undergoing a transformation, in hopes of becoming sustainably profitable.

It’s good to see the airline finally turning a small profit, and it’s really a reminder of how tough the airline business is. Virgin Atlantic’s biggest market is across the Atlantic, and Virgin Atlantic essentially acts as an extension of Delta’s business, but with lower operating costs. Despite Delta being the world’s most profitable airline, that doesn’t translate to much profitability for the London-based carrier.

Speaking of transatlantic demand, Virgin Atlantic also shared some bad news. During a call discussing financial results, Oliver Byrns, Virgin Atlantic’ Chief Financial Officer, shared an update on current demand trends. According to him, Virgin Atlantic is starting to see transatlantic demand take a hit. Specifically, in the last few weeks, he claims the airline has “started to see some signals that US demand is slowing.”

There are two points that are particularly interesting:

Demand is specifically weakening for tickets originating in the US, and not for tickets originating in the UK

Right now, spring travel is the period where weakness is being seen, so that would be for travel in the coming weeks and months

We don’t yet know just how big the dip in demand is, but to my knowledge, Virgin Atlantic is the first major transatlantic carrier to publicly acknowledge that transatlantic demand is weakening.

Given that Delta and Virgin Atlantic have a transatlantic joint venture, it seems likely that Delta is also seeing weakening demand between the US and London, since the airlines coordinate their schedules. It’ll be interesting to see if Delta releases updated guidance for Q2 2025.

Virgin Atlantic is seeing a dip in transatlantic demand

What can we make of Virgin Atlantic’s warning?

With Virgin Atlantic warning of a reduction in travel demand this spring, what can we conclude from this? Should we assume this is some Virgin Atlantic specific problem, or that Virgin Atlantic is simply the first airline to admit demand is decreasing?

In recent days, CNN’s Richard Quest has had both Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith and Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr on his program, and both made it clear that they’re not currently seeing a dip in demand across the Atlantic.

“We’re very, very hurt…Americans are our best friends, and I think we’re quite disappointed where our best friends have turned on us.”@AirFranceKLM CEO Ben Smith on the growing trade tensions between the U.S. and his native Canada. pic.twitter.com/4ernrB5jcF — Quest Means Business (@questCNN) March 28, 2025

“I think we should not be…distorted by those stresses on the political level towards Americans and Europeans.”@lufthansaNews CEO Carsten Spohr doesn’t think geopolitical tensions will impact transatlantic travel. pic.twitter.com/e9Cn16MLDm — Quest Means Business (@questCNN) March 28, 2025

What’s interesting, and perhaps surprising, is that Virgin Atlantic is seeing the decrease in demand with the US point of sale, and not the UK point of sale. European airline stocks slumped today following this news (among other things), so what’s actually going on here?

For now we can just mark this as “developing.” Personally, I think there are some Virgin Atlantic specific issues here, but also some bigger trends.

For one, I think peak season summer demand across the Atlantic will likely be as strong as ever, even with more uncertainty, tariffs, etc. That traffic heavily has a US point of sale, and for many Americans, a summer vacation in Europe has become a non-negotiable, which is very much a post pandemic trend.

Virgin Atlantic faces a unique challenge among European carriers, since the airline exclusively operates long haul flights, and has limited regional connectivity. So Virgin Atlantic’s demand is more reflective specifically of demand between the US and UK, than you’d find with other airlines (which essentially shuttle Americans to France, Greece, Italy, and Spain, in summer).

Of course the global situation is rapidly evolving, though my guess (and again, it’s just a guess) is that sooner rather than later, Virgin Atlantic won’t be the only long haul airline sounding the alarm. Yes, summer demand will be strong, but I think non-peak season transatlantic demand will decrease materially.

This includes both business and leisure travel with a US and European point of sale. I think we’ll see a decrease in business travel in both directions (given the lack of cooperation), and I also think some Americans will have less disposable income (due to the impact of tariffs, and the stock market not doing well), while some Europeans won’t travel to the US both due to the cost of doing so, plus to protest US policies.

I’m not saying that demand is going to collapse, but I think it will be material, and I suspect it’ll become most evident after the summer peak. I could be wrong, and a lot could change, but I’m just putting my guess on record, based on the current actions we’re seeing.

Let’s see how transatlantic demand evolves…

Bottom line

Virgin Atlantic has warned of weakening transatlantic demand. Specifically, the airline is seeing a reduction in demand for spring travel, with a US point of sale. While some problems are a bit UK specific (since Virgin Atlantic only operates long haul flights), I can’t imagine that this is a totally isolated problem. It’ll be worth watching to to see how this situation develops.

What do you make of Virgin Atlantic’s warning about weakening demand?

Source: Onemileatatime.com | View original article

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