Food crisis experts say ‘worst-case scenario of famine’ is happening in Gaza
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
‘Worst Case Scenario of Famine’ Happening in Gaza, Food Crisis Experts Warn
Medical sources in the Gaza Strip said 62 people were killed by IDF fire since Tuesday morning. The Dutch government has imposed an entry ban on Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to convene an urgent Cabinet meeting.
■ Medical sources in the Gaza Strip said 62 people were killed by IDF fire since Tuesday morning, 19 while waiting for aid distribution.
■ Sources at Al-Awda hospital said that 30 Palestinians, including 26 children and women, were killed in an Israeli airstrike overnight into Tuesday on houses near the Nuseirat refugee camp.
■ The leading international authority on food crises says the “worst-case scenario of famine is currently playing out in the Gaza Strip” and is predicting “widespread death” without immediate action.
■ The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit released footage filmed last week, in which it claims Hamas terrorists are looting trucks delivering aid supplies to the Gaza Strip.
■ British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to convene an urgent Cabinet meeting, expected to detail the steps required for Britain to recognize a Palestinian state and discuss British efforts to prevent starvation in Gaza.
■ The Dutch government has imposed an entry ban on Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, labeling them persona non gratae.
■ Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich expressed his aspirations to reestablish Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, begin formal sovereignty in the West Bank.
“Worst-case scenario of famine unfolding” in Gaza Strip, food security experts say
The alert, still short of a formal famine declaration, follows an outcry over images of emaciated children in Gaza and reports of hunger-related deaths. Israel over the weekend announced measures, including daily humanitarian pauses in fighting in parts of Gaza and airdrops. The United Nations and Palestinians on the ground say little has changed, and desperate crowds continue to overwhelm and unload delivery trucks before they can reach their destinations. The IPC has only declared famine a few times – in Somalia in 2011, South Sudan in 2017 and 2020, and parts of Sudan’s western Darfur region last year. The report says nearly 17 out of every 100 children under the age of 5 in Gaza City are acutely malnourished. At least two people or four children under 5 per 10,000 are dying daily due to starvation or the interaction of malnutrition and disease, the IPC says. “Immediate action must be taken to end the hostilities and allow for unimpeded, large-scale, life-saving humanitarian response,” it says.
The alert, still short of a formal famine declaration, follows an outcry over images of emaciated children in Gaza and reports of dozens of hunger-related deaths after nearly 22 months of war.
The international pressure led Israel over the weekend to announce measures, including daily humanitarian pauses in fighting in parts of Gaza and airdrops. The United Nations and Palestinians on the ground say little has changed, and desperate crowds continue to overwhelm and unload delivery trucks before they can reach their destinations.
A charity distributes meals to Palestinians facing food shortages amid ongoing Israeli attacks and severe restrictions in Gaza City, Gaza on July 28, 2025. Ali Jadallah/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, said Gaza has teetered on the brink of famine for two years, but recent developments have “dramatically worsened” the situation, including “increasingly stringent blockades” by Israel.
“Mounting evidence shows that widespread starvation, malnutrition, and disease are driving a rise in hunger-related deaths. Latest data indicates that Famine thresholds have been reached for food consumption in most of the Gaza Strip and for acute malnutrition in Gaza City,” the IPC said. “Immediate action must be taken to end the hostilities and allow for unimpeded, large-scale, life-saving humanitarian response. This is the only path to stopping further deaths and catastrophic human suffering.”
A formal famine declaration, which is rare, requires the kind of data that the lack of access to Gaza and mobility within it have largely denied. The IPC has only declared famine a few times – in Somalia in 2011, South Sudan in 2017 and 2020, and parts of Sudan’s western Darfur region last year.
“Deadly turning point” reached
But independent experts say they don’t need a formal declaration to know what they’re seeing in Gaza.
“Just as a family physician can often diagnose a patient she’s familiar with based on visible symptoms without having to send samples to the lab and wait for results, so too we can interpret Gaza’s symptoms. This is famine,” Alex de Waal, author of “Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine” and executive director of the World Peace Foundation, told The Associated Press.
An area is classified as in famine when all three of the following conditions are confirmed:
At least 20% of households have an extreme lack of food, or are essentially starving. At least 30% of children six months to 5 years old suffer from acute malnutrition or wasting, meaning they’re too thin for their height. And at least two people or four children under 5 per 10,000 are dying daily due to starvation or the interaction of malnutrition and disease.
The report is based on available information through July 25 and says the crisis has reached “an alarming and deadly turning point.” It says data indicate that famine thresholds have been reached for food consumption in most of Gaza – at its lowest level since the war began – and for acute malnutrition in Gaza City. The report says nearly 17 out of every 100 children under the age of 5 in Gaza City are acutely malnourished.
Mounting evidence shows “widespread starvation,” the IPC says.Essential health and other services have collapsed. One in three people in Gaza is going without food for days at a time, according to the World Food Program. Hospitals report a rapid increase in hunger-related deaths in children under 5. Gaza’s population of over 2 million has been squeezed into increasingly tiny areas of the devastated territory.
The IPC’s latest analysis in May warned that Gaza will likely fall into famine if Israel doesn’t lift its blockade and stop its military campaign. Its new alert calls for immediate and large-scale action and warns: “Failure to act now will result in widespread death in much of the strip.”
Israel has restricted aid to varying degrees throughout the war. In March, it cut off the entry of all goods, including fuel, food and medicine, to pressure Hamas to free hostages.
Israel eased those restrictions in May but also pushed ahead with a new U.S.-backed aid delivery system that has been wracked by chaos and violence. The traditional, U.N.-led aid providers say deliveries have been hampered by Israeli military restrictions and incidents of looting, while criminals and hungry crowds swarm entering convoys.
While Israel says there’s no limit on how many aid trucks can enter Gaza, U.N. agencies and aid groups say even the latest humanitarian measures are not enough to counter the worsening starvation. In a statement Monday, Doctors Without Borders called the new airdrops ineffective and dangerous, saying they deliver less aid than trucks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said no one is starving in Gaza and that Israel has supplied enough aid throughout the war, “otherwise, there would be no Gazans.” Israel’s military on Monday criticized what it calls “false claims of deliberate starvation in Gaza.”
Israel’s closest ally now appears to disagree. “Those children look very hungry,” President Donald Trump said Monday of the images from Gaza in recent days.
contributed to this report.
Gaza live: ‘Worst-case famine scenario’ unfolding as Starmer calls emergency cabinet meeting
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will convene an emergency cabinet meeting later to discuss a peace plan and aid for Gaza. UN-backed food security body said recent developments, including Israel’s tightening blockades, have ‘dramatically worsened’ conditions in Gaza. Local officials confirmed at least 14 more Palestinians, including two children, had died from hunger and malnutrition.
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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will convene an emergency cabinet meeting later to discuss a peace plan and aid for Gaza, where experts warn a famine is unfolding.
A UN-backed food security body said recent developments, including Israel’s tightening blockades, have “dramatically worsened” conditions in Gaza, which has been on the brink of famine for two years.
The “worst-case scenario of famine is currently playing out,” the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification said.
It comes after Donald Trump acknowledged “real starvation” in Gaza and pledged to set up food centres without “fences”.
He dismissed Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that there was no starvation in Gaza and urged him to ensure aid reaches Palestinians.
Local officials confirmed at least 14 more Palestinians, including two children, had died from hunger and malnutrition, bring the toll from starvation to 147, including 88 children.
Israeli human rights groups B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights-Israel have labelled the war on Gaza, which has killed over 60,000 people so far, as “genocide”.
Famine under way in Gaza, UN-backed experts say
UN-backed hunger experts call for immediate intervention to save lives. First time the IPC has said famine is under way in Gaza, although it has previously warned that the territory was on the brink. Israel has repeatedly limited aid trucks reaching Gaza, sometimes halting aid shipments entirely. Health authorities in Gaza said the Palestinian toll from the war had passed 60,000. Civilians make up a majority of the victims. Israeli data shows no food entered Gaza in March or April, but 37,800 tonnes entered in May and June, IPC report says. Israel denies limiting aid shipments and blames other factors in Gaza on distribution failures by the UN. It is estimated Gaza needs 62,000 metric tonnes of food staples each month. We need urgent action now, says the WFP executive director, Ross Smith, addressing reporters via video link from Rome. We are happy to clarify that this is based on ‘the latest evidence available’, not ‘official’ figures from the World Food Programme or Unicef.
“Mounting evidence shows widespread starvation, malnutrition and disease are driving a rise in hunger-related deaths,” the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) alert said. “The worst-case scenario of famine is currently playing out in the Gaza Strip.”
This is the first time the IPC has said famine is under way in Gaza, although it has previously warned that the territory was on the brink. During nearly two years of war, Israel has repeatedly limited aid trucks reaching Gaza, sometimes halting aid shipments entirely.
The famine alert came as health authorities in Gaza said the Palestinian toll from the war had passed 60,000. Civilians make up a majority of the victims.
The alert, based on “the latest evidence available”, does not formally classify Gaza as being in famine. That requires full analysis, which the IPC said would be carried out without delay, but data from Gaza already confirms two of three thresholds have been met.
Famine is formally classified as a situation where at least 20% of people face extreme food shortages, one in three children are acutely malnourished and two people out of every 10,000 die daily from starvation-related causes.
Most of Gaza has crossed the food consumption threshold, “with one in three individuals going without food for days at a time”, the IPC alert said.
Child malnutrition rose rapidly in the first half of July, reaching the famine threshold in Gaza City. “Hospitals have reported a rapid increase in hunger-related deaths of children under five years of age, with at least 16 reported deaths since 17 July,” it said.
Between April and mid-July, more than 20,000 children were admitted for treatment for acute malnutrition, 3,000 of them severely malnourished.
The third core indicator is starvation-related deaths. It is difficult to collect robust data in a health system nearing collapse after nearly two years of war but the World Food Programme and Unicef said in a joint statement that these deaths were “increasingly common”.
Q&A Why is it so difficult to report on Gaza? Show Coverage of the war in Gaza is constrained by Israeli attacks on Palestinian journalists and a bar on international reporters entering the Gaza Strip to report independently on the war. Israel has not allowed foreign reporters to enter Gaza since 7 October 2023, unless they are under Israeli military escort. Reporters who join these trips have no control over where they go, and other restrictions include a bar on speaking to Palestinians in Gaza. Palestinian journalists and media workers inside Gaza have paid a heavy price for their work reporting on the war, with over 180 killed since the conflict began. The committee to protect journalists has determined that at least 19 of them “were directly targeted by Israeli forces in killings which CPJ classifies as murders”. Foreign reporters based in Israel filed a legal petition seeking access to Gaza, but it was rejected by the supreme court on security grounds. Private lobbying by diplomats and public appeals by prominent journalists and media outlets have been ignored by the Israeli government. To ensure accurate reporting from Gaza given these restrictions, the Guardian works with trusted journalists on the ground; our visual teams verify photo and videos from third parties; and we use clearly sourced data from organisations that have a track record of providing accurate information in Gaza during past conflicts, or during other conflicts or humanitarian crises. Emma Graham-Harrison, chief Middle East correspondent Was this helpful? Thank you for your feedback.
Cindy McCain, the WFP executive director, said: “The unbearable suffering of the people of Gaza is already clear for the world to see. Waiting for official confirmation of famine to provide life-saving food aid they desperately need is unconscionable.”
The IPC report details how Israel’s “drastic restrictions” on the entry of food has limited shipments to far below the levels needed to cover basic needs in Gaza, without fresh foods such as vegetables and meat.
The population needs an estimated 62,000 metric tonnes of food staples each month. Israeli data shows no food entered Gaza in March or April, 19,900 tonnes entered in May and 37,800 tonnes entered in June, the IPC report says.
“This is unlike anything we have seen in this century,” said the WFP emergency director, Ross Smith, addressing reporters in Geneva via video link from Rome. “It reminds us of previous disasters in Ethiopia or Biafra in the past century. We need urgent action now.”
Israel denies limiting aid shipments and has blamed food shortages in Gaza on other factors including distribution failures by the UN and Hamas diverting aid.
The IPC is a global initiative working with aid groups, international organisations and UN agencies to assess hunger levels in populations at risk.
Experts say Gaza at ‘worst-case scenario,’ famine about to cause ‘widespread death’
The alert is still short of a formal famine declaration. It follows an outcry over images of emaciated children in Gaza and reports of dozens of hunger-related deaths after nearly 22 months of war. The IPC has issued several similar warnings during the war in Gaza, including one in May, which Israel dismissed as “flawed.” Israel said in response at the time that “even according to the IPC’s own analysis,” there was no famine in Gaza. However, over the past year, conditions have worsened to the point where the I PC has issued its highest level of warning, without officially declaring that famine is present in the Gaza Strip. But independent experts say they don’t need a formal declaration to know what they’re seeing in Gaza; they say the symptoms are clear. The World Food Program warned Tuesday that the crisis unfolding in Gaza was reminiscent of last century’s famines in Nigeria and Biafra. “This is anything we have seen in this century, unlike the situation in the past century,’’ WFP emergency director Ross Smith said.
The alert, still short of a formal famine declaration, follows an outcry over images of emaciated children in Gaza and reports of dozens of hunger-related deaths after nearly 22 months of war.
The international pressure led Israel over the weekend to announce measures, including daily humanitarian pauses in fighting in parts of Gaza and airdrops of supplies. The United Nations and Palestinians on the ground say little has changed, and desperate crowds continue to overwhelm and unload delivery trucks before they can reach their destinations.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, said Gaza has teetered on the brink of famine for two years, but recent developments have “dramatically worsened” the situation, including “increasingly stringent blockades” by Israel.
The IPC has issued several similar warnings during the war in Gaza, including one in May, which Israel dismissed as “flawed.”
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Israel said in response at the time that “even according to the IPC’s own analysis,” there was no famine in Gaza, and noted that previous IPC projections about impending famine have “repeatedly failed to materialize.”
However, over the past year, conditions have worsened to the point where the IPC has issued its highest level of warning, without officially declaring that famine is present in Gaza.
A formal famine declaration, which is rare, requires the kind of data that the lack of access to Gaza and mobility within has largely denied.
The IPC has only declared famine a few times — in Somalia in 2011, South Sudan in 2017 and 2020, and parts of Sudan’s western Darfur region last year.
But independent experts say they don’t need a formal declaration to know what they’re seeing in Gaza.
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“Just as a family physician can often diagnose a patient she’s familiar with based on visible symptoms without having to send samples to the lab and wait for results, so too we can interpret Gaza’s symptoms. This is famine,” Alex de Waal, author of “Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine” and executive director of the World Peace Foundation, told The Associated Press.
What it takes to declare famine
An area is classified as in famine when all three of the following conditions are confirmed: At least 20 percent of households have an extreme lack of food, or are essentially starving. At least 30% of children six months to 5 years old suffer from acute malnutrition or wasting, meaning they’re too thin for their height. And at least two people or four children under 5 per 10,000 are dying daily due to starvation or the interaction of malnutrition and disease.
The report, based on available information through July 25, said the crisis has reached “an alarming and deadly turning point.” It said data indicate that famine thresholds have been reached for food consumption in most of Gaza — at its lowest level since the war began — and for acute malnutrition in Gaza City.
The report said nearly 17 out of every 100 children under the age of 5 in Gaza City are acutely malnourished.
Mounting evidence shows “widespread starvation,” and essential health and other services have collapsed, the report found. According to the UN’s World Food Program, one in three people in Gaza is going without food for days at a time.
Hospitals in Gaza have been reporting a rapid increase in hunger-related deaths in children under 5.
The IPC’s previous analysis in May warned that Gaza would likely fall into famine if Israel failed to lift its blockade and stop its military campaign. Its new alert called for immediate and large-scale action and warned: “Failure to act now will result in widespread death in much of the strip.”
The World Food Program warned Tuesday that the disaster unfolding in Gaza was reminiscent of last century’s famines seen in Ethiopia and Biafra in Nigeria.
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“This is unlike anything we have seen in this century,” WFP emergency director Ross Smith told reporters in Geneva.
“It reminds us of previous disasters in Ethiopia or Biafra in the past century,” he said, speaking via video-link from Rome. “We need urgent action now.”
While the IPC did not officially classify the situation as “famine,” Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s food security and nutrition analysis director, insisted that “what we’re seeing is mounting evidence that a famine is there.”
“All the signals are there now,” he added.
What aid restrictions look like
Israel has restricted aid to varying degrees throughout the war. In March, it cut off the entry of all goods, including fuel, food and medicine, to pressure Hamas to free hostages.
Israel eased those restrictions in May and pushed ahead with a new US-backed aid delivery system, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, that has been wracked by chaos and violence. The traditional, UN-led aid providers say deliveries have been hampered by Israeli military restrictions and incidents of looting, while criminals and hungry crowds swarm entering convoys.
While Israel says there’s no limit on how many aid trucks can enter Gaza, UN agencies and aid groups say even the latest humanitarian measures are not enough to counter the worsening starvation. In a statement Monday, Doctors Without Borders called the new airdrops ineffective and dangerous, saying they deliver less aid than trucks.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said no one is starving in Gaza and that Israel has supplied enough aid throughout the war, “otherwise, there would be no Gazans.” The Israel Defense Forces on Monday criticized what it called the “false claims of deliberate starvation in Gaza.”
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While the premier has acknowledged that the situation facing Gaza’s residents is “difficult,” he said that “Hamas benefits from attempting to fuel the perception of a humanitarian crisis.”
“As such, they have been releasing unverified numbers to the news media while circulating images that are carefully staged or manipulated,” he said.
The premier did not offer evidence to back up the claim that images of starving children that have circulated globally were “staged” by Hamas (though the veracity of one image was debunked by the IDF). In contrast, US President Donald Trump said earlier Monday that the images of starvation in Gaza are “real,” adding: “You can’t fake that.”
The reports of an increasingly dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip — including growing levels of malnutrition, and children dying by starvation — led Israel on Sunday to declare that it would implement a “tactical” pause in daily military operations in densely populated areas of Gaza, along with several other changes, to allow for the safe distribution of humanitarian aid.
At the same time, Israel has denied using hunger as a weapon of war, and accused the United Nations and other aid agencies of failing to pick up and distribute supplies delivered to Gaza’s border crossing points.