Forget OPEC Warnings The Real Oil Shock Is Happening Inside Russia – Crude Oil Prices Today
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Diverging Reports Breakdown
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Crippling Russia’s Oil Infrastructure in 2025
Ukrainian forces have executed a systematic campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. These attacks have targeted refineries, storage facilities, and export terminals across Russian territory. The strikes employ a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), from modified commercial drones to more sophisticated military models. These operations have proven remarkably effective at penetrating Russian air defenses and striking critical infrastructure hundreds of kilometers from Ukrainian territory. Ukraine employs “maritime drones and missiles” in its infrastructure attacks campaign, significantly expanding its strike capabilities and complicating Russian defensive efforts.These attacks have had a significant OPEC production impact on global energy markets. Russia is experiencing “severe fuel shortages in several regions of the country,” according to energy security expert Cyril Widdershoven. These strikes have created tangible impacts within Russia: Severe gasoline and diesel shortages, creating economic pressure on retailers to prevent inflation. Russia has diverted more oil to export markets rather than processing it into higher-value products, which reduces profit margins as crude oil sells at lower prices than refined products.
Ukrainian forces have executed a systematic campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, employing precision drone strikes to disrupt Russia’s energy production capabilities. These attacks have targeted refineries, storage facilities, and export terminals across Russian territory, representing a significant evolution in Ukraine’s military strategy. Rather than solely engaging Russian forces on the battlefield, Ukraine has expanded operations to undermine Russia’s economic foundations and war-making capacity.
The strikes employ a variety of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), from modified commercial drones to more sophisticated military models, demonstrating Ukraine’s growing technological capabilities in asymmetric warfare. These operations have proven remarkably effective at penetrating Russian air defenses and striking critical infrastructure hundreds of kilometers from Ukrainian territory.
According to energy security expert Cyril Widdershoven, Ukrainian forces have executed “precision strikes and drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, and related logistics” representing “strategic success” in targeting “the Kremlin’s economic lifelines” (Source: Widdershoven, C. “Forget OPEC Warnings The Real Oil Shock Is Happening Inside Russia,” Oilprice.com, September 2023).
Beyond aerial drones, Ukraine employs “maritime drones and missiles” in its infrastructure attacks campaign, significantly expanding its strike capabilities and complicating Russian defensive efforts. These attacks have had a significant OPEC production impact on global energy markets.
What Russian Oil Facilities Have Been Hit by Ukrainian Drones?
Major Refineries Under Attack
Ukrainian drone strikes have successfully targeted numerous high-value oil processing facilities across Russia, including:
Rosneft’s Tuapse Refinery : Located on the Black Sea coast, this facility processes approximately 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) and serves as a critical export hub. Drone attacks caused significant fire damage to distillation units.
Lukoil’s Volgograd Refinery : This inland facility with 290,000 bpd capacity suffered multiple strikes, damaging crude processing units and forcing partial shutdowns.
Gazprom’s Omsk Refinery : One of Russia’s largest facilities at 420,000 bpd capacity experienced targeted attacks on its catalytic cracking units, reducing gasoline production capabilities.
Salavat Petrochemical Complex : Located in Bashkortostan, this major refining and petrochemical facility produces gasoline, diesel, and petrochemical products. Recent strikes triggered extensive fires requiring emergency response operations.
Afipsky Oil Refinery: This strategic facility in Krasnodar Krai, representing approximately 2.1% of Russia’s refining capacity, has been hit repeatedly. The facility supplies diesel and aviation kerosene to Russian military forces.
Oil Storage and Export Infrastructure
Beyond refineries, Ukrainian forces have targeted:
Novorossiysk Oil Terminal : A critical Black Sea export facility handling millions of barrels monthly has faced multiple drone attacks disrupting loading operations.
Ust-Luga Oil Products Terminal : This Baltic Sea terminal, crucial for Russia’s western exports, experienced strikes affecting storage tanks and loading equipment.
Inland Storage Depots: Multiple fuel storage facilities across western and southern Russia have been hit, creating localized supply disruptions.
Overall, reports indicate that “dozens of Russian fuel facilities” have been hit, with “major refineries and pipeline centers being shut down or taken offline” (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023).
What Is the Economic Impact of These Strikes on Russia?
Refining Capacity Reduction
The cumulative effect of Ukrainian drone strikes has been substantial:
Impact Category Estimated Effect Refineries hit 16 out of 38 major facilities Refining capacity offline Over 1 million bpd (17% of total) Diesel exports Lowest level in 5 years Domestic fuel price increase 15-30% in affected regions
According to independent analysis, “over a million barrels per day of refining throughput is being hit or removed from the market” due to Ukrainian strikes (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023). This represents a significant portion of Russia’s total refining capability.
These attacks have forced Russia to divert more crude oil to export markets rather than processing it domestically into higher-value products. While this maintains revenue flows, it reduces profit margins significantly as crude oil sells at lower prices than refined products.
Domestic Fuel Shortages
The strikes have created tangible impacts within Russia:
Severe gasoline and diesel shortages reported in multiple regions
Fuel rationing implemented in southern Russian territories
Price caps instituted to prevent inflation, creating economic pressure on retailers
Emergency fuel reserves deployed to stabilize critical sectors
Russia is experiencing “severe fuel shortages in several regions of the country” (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023), not only impacting civilian transportation but also creating pressure on military logistics and industrial production.
Particularly affected are regions near military operations, including Crimea and border areas where approximately half of gas stations report fuel supply disruptions. These shortages directly impact civilian transportation and economic activity while complicating military logistics.
Export Restrictions and Market Impacts
In response to domestic shortages, Moscow has:
Extended bans on gasoline exports
Restricted diesel exports to maintain domestic supplies
Diverted more crude oil to export markets
Increased imports of refined products from friendly nations
Moscow has implemented “renewed, stricter export bans on diesel or other products” in response to the attacks (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023). These measures have ripple effects throughout global oil markets influence, particularly affecting countries historically dependent on Russian petroleum products.
The redirection of Russian crude exports has partially offset production losses but created logistical challenges and quality mismatches in certain markets. Russia is “forced to export more” crude oil as domestic refining capacity is reduced (Source: Bloomberg, referenced in Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023).
How Has Russia Responded to These Energy Infrastructure Attacks?
Defensive Measures
Russia has implemented several countermeasures:
Deployed additional air defense systems around critical energy infrastructure
Established drone detection and electronic warfare perimeters
Increased physical security and surveillance at facilities
Implemented emergency response protocols to minimize damage from successful strikes
Despite these efforts, Ukrainian drones continue to penetrate defenses and reach targets deep within Russian territory, demonstrating the challenges of defending widely distributed infrastructure against low-cost attack platforms.
Repair and Adaptation Strategies
Russian authorities have prioritized:
Rapid repair of damaged facilities where possible
Reconfiguration of refining networks to bypass damaged units
Creation of emergency fuel reserves near critical military operations
Development of alternative supply routes for affected regions
Industry experts note that while Russia possesses significant engineering capabilities, the ongoing nature of attacks creates cumulative damage that exceeds repair capacity. Specialized equipment and components face procurement challenges due to international sanctions.
Policy Responses
The Kremlin has implemented several policy adjustments:
Emergency funding for infrastructure repairs and security upgrades
Temporary price controls on petroleum products
Tax incentives for refineries to maximize production
Prioritization of military fuel supplies over civilian needs
These measures aim to maintain stability but create economic distortions and fiscal pressures that compound Russia’s broader economic challenges from sanctions and war expenditures. Recent oil price crash analysis suggests these challenges may intensify.
What Strategic Goals Do These Strikes Achieve for Ukraine?
Degrading Russia’s War Economy
The primary strategic objective appears to be undermining Russia’s ability to sustain military operations by:
Reducing fuel availability for military vehicles, aircraft, and logistics
Forcing diversion of resources to infrastructure protection and repair
Creating economic pressure through fuel shortages and price increases
Compelling Russia to export more crude rather than higher-value refined products
By targeting energy infrastructure rather than military assets directly, Ukraine achieves asymmetric effects that maximize impact relative to resources expended. The strikes aim to undermine “Russia’s ability to sustain military operations” and create “economic pressure through fuel shortages and price increases” (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023).
Creating Internal Pressure
The attacks generate secondary effects within Russia:
Civilian discontent from fuel shortages and price increases
Economic disruption in transportation and industrial sectors
Visible demonstration of Russia’s vulnerability despite government assurances
Strain on emergency services and crisis management capabilities
These internal pressures potentially complicate the Kremlin’s political management of the conflict and its domestic narrative. According to Widdershoven, the strikes are “hitting Putin’s war economy very hard” by decreasing “options to monetize its hydrocarbon potential (exports)” and forcing “higher domestic price settings for Russian citizens” (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023).
Demonstrating Strategic Reach
The successful strikes serve important signaling functions:
Demonstrating Ukraine’s ability to project power deep into Russian territory
Showcasing technological capabilities and operational sophistication
Establishing deterrent credibility through sustained campaign execution
Creating uncertainty about future targeting and vulnerability
This strategic signaling may influence Russian military planning and resource allocation decisions beyond the immediate tactical situation.
How Effective Are Ukrainian Drone Strikes Compared to Economic Sanctions?
Complementary Effects
The drone campaign and international sanctions create reinforcing pressures:
Mechanism Sanctions Impact Drone Strike Impact Timeframe Gradual, cumulative Immediate, direct Visibility Often abstract, financial Concrete, visible Workarounds Complex financial mechanisms Physical repairs, workarounds Targeting precision Broad economic sectors Specific critical nodes Deniability Limited (policy declarations) Some operational ambiguity
Energy analysts note that drone strikes create immediate physical constraints that cannot be circumvented through the financial engineering often used to bypass sanctions. The combination of physical infrastructure damage and financial restrictions creates multiplicative effects on Russia’s energy sector.
Widdershoven suggests that “the most effective sanctions currently hitting Russia’s war chest or Putin’s lifeline are the Ukrainian drones” (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023), highlighting how physical infrastructure attacks can create more immediate economic impacts than traditional financial sanctions.
Measurable Outcomes
Evidence suggests the drone campaign has achieved concrete results:
Forced reallocation of air defense assets from frontline operations
Created documented fuel shortages affecting military operations
Generated visible economic impacts through price increases and rationing
Compelled policy responses that reveal strategic vulnerabilities
These tangible outcomes contrast with the often-debated effectiveness of certain sanctions measures, particularly in the energy sector where Russia has developed alternative markets and payment mechanisms.
What Are the Global Oil Market Implications of These Attacks?
Supply Chain Disruptions
The strikes have created ripple effects throughout global energy markets:
Reduced availability of Russian diesel exports, particularly to markets in Africa and Asia
Increased crude oil exports as Russia diverts unprocessed oil to international markets
Price premiums for certain petroleum products in regions historically dependent on Russian supplies
Shifts in global refining utilization as other producers increase output to fill gaps
These disruptions occur against a backdrop of tight refining capacity globally, amplifying the impact of Russian production losses.
“Most Russian seaborne volumes will head” to Asian markets as domestic refining is reduced (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023). This situation could lead to “a short-term increase in supply to Asia” while creating challenges in “regional markets for Russian products” (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023).
Price Stability Factors
Despite the significant disruption to Russian refining, global oil prices have remained relatively stable due to:
Increased production from other major producers offsetting Russian losses
Strategic petroleum reserve releases by consuming nations
Demand moderation in key markets due to economic concerns
Market anticipation of potential OPEC+ production increases
This price stability masks significant regional variations and product-specific impacts, particularly in diesel markets where Russian exports play an outsized role. The ongoing trade war oil price movements further complicate this picture.
Long-Term Market Adaptations
The energy industry is implementing several adjustments:
Reconfiguration of trading patterns to accommodate changed Russian export profiles
Investment in alternative refining capacity in regions affected by Russian product shortages
Development of new logistics routes to bypass vulnerable infrastructure
Hedging strategies to manage increased volatility in specific product markets
These adaptations demonstrate the resilience of global energy markets while highlighting the strategic importance of refining infrastructure in addition to crude production capacity.
What Defensive Challenges Does Russia Face in Protecting Oil Infrastructure?
Geographical Vulnerability
Russia’s energy infrastructure presents an inherently challenging defensive problem:
Vast geographical distribution across thousands of kilometers
Concentration of critical nodes in relatively accessible regions
Proximity of key facilities to international borders or coastlines
Legacy Soviet-era design emphasizing production over security
These geographical factors create fundamental vulnerabilities that cannot be fully mitigated without massive investment or significant operational compromises.
Technical Detection Limitations
Russian air defenses face several technical challenges:
Low radar cross-section of modern drones, especially at low altitudes
Difficulty distinguishing between commercial and weaponized UAVs
Electronic warfare vulnerabilities affecting detection systems
Resource constraints limiting coverage of all potential targets
These technical limitations are compounded by the relatively low cost of attack drones compared to the sophisticated air defense systems needed to counter them, creating an unfavorable cost-exchange ratio for the defender.
Resource Allocation Dilemmas
The protection of energy infrastructure forces difficult tradeoffs:
Diversion of air defense assets from frontline military operations
Balancing protection between military and economic targets
Prioritizing among numerous high-value facilities
Managing limited technical expertise for complex defense systems
These allocation challenges create inevitable gaps in coverage that can be exploited by adaptive attackers using simple but effective targeting methodologies.
How Might These Strikes Influence the Broader Conflict?
Negotiating Leverage
The energy infrastructure campaign potentially influences conflict resolution pathways:
Creates concrete costs that may factor into Russian strategic calculations
Demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to impose asymmetric consequences
Establishes credible deterrent capabilities for future security arrangements
Generates pressure points that could influence negotiation positions
By targeting economic rather than purely military assets, Ukraine creates impacts that persist beyond immediate battlefield dynamics and affect Russia’s longer-term strategic position. According to Ukrainian drone attack reports, these strikes represent a significant shift in warfare tactics.
International Support Considerations
The campaign interacts with international support dynamics:
Demonstrates effective use of provided technology and intelligence
Creates visible results that justify continued military assistance
Avoids direct attacks on Russian population centers
Maintains focus on economic warfare rather than escalation to strategic targets
These factors potentially help maintain international coalition cohesion while demonstrating Ukraine’s capability to conduct sophisticated operations.
Potential Escalation Pathways
The strikes create potential escalation dynamics:
Russian retaliation against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure
Potential expansion of targeting to include more sensitive facilities
Risk of accidental consequences from strikes near populated areas
Pressure on Russian leadership to demonstrate effective response
Managing these escalation risks remains a critical challenge for both sides and international stakeholders as the conflict evolves.
What Does the Future Hold for Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Attacks?
Technological Evolution
The drone campaign will likely continue to evolve:
Integration of more sophisticated guidance and evasion capabilities
Potential deployment of longer-range systems with larger payloads
Combination of drone strikes with other precision attack methods
Adaptation to counter evolving Russian defensive measures
This technological evolution represents a continuing challenge for Russian defensive planners and creates persistent uncertainty about vulnerability.
The “Flamingo Missile” represents a “potential watershed development” that could significantly impact future targeting capabilities (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023). This missile “can reach much further into Russian territory with a larger payload” (Source: Widdershoven, C. Oilprice.com, September 2023), potentially expanding the scope and impact of Ukrainian strikes.
Seasonal Considerations
The effectiveness and impact of the campaign may vary seasonally:
Winter fuel demands create heightened vulnerability for Russia
Weather conditions affect drone operations and detection capabilities
Seasonal maintenance schedules at refineries create critical windows
Agricultural and transportation peak seasons influence economic impact
These seasonal factors may drive operational tempo and targeting decisions as the campaign continues. Analysts continue to monitor oil price stagnation factors that could be influenced by these attacks.
Strategic Adaptation
Both sides will likely adjust approaches:
Ukraine may shift targeting priorities based on observed effects
Russia will continue hardening critical infrastructure and improving defenses
International responses may evolve based on perceived escalation risks
Energy markets will develop more resilient supply chains and contingencies
These adaptations reflect the dynamic nature of economic warfare and its integration with broader conflict strategies. According to recent reports on Russian diesel exports, the impacts have been substantial and lasting.
FAQ: Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure
How do Ukrainian drones penetrate Russian air defenses?
Ukrainian forces employ multiple techniques to overcome Russian defenses, including flying at extremely low altitudes to avoid radar detection, using electronic warfare to jam defensive systems, approaching from unexpected vectors, and overwhelming defenses with multiple simultaneous attacks. The relatively small size and composite materials of many attack drones also reduce their radar signature compared to conventional aircraft.
Are these strikes legal under international law?
Military infrastructure supporting war efforts has traditionally been considered legitimate military targets under international humanitarian law. Oil refineries and fuel depots that supply military operations fall into a gray area as dual-use infrastructure. The legal assessment depends on proportionality considerations and whether the military advantage gained outweighs civilian impacts. International legal experts remain divided on the specific application to energy infrastructure.
How do these strikes compare to Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities?
Both campaigns target energy infrastructure, but with notable differences. Russian strikes have primarily targeted electricity generation and transmission facilities directly serving civilian populations, while Ukrainian strikes focus on oil refining and fuel production facilities that support military operations. The scale, intensity, and targeting philosophy differ significantly between the two campaigns.
Could these attacks lead to an environmental disaster?
Modern refineries incorporate significant safety systems to contain fires and prevent catastrophic releases. However, any attack on petroleum processing facilities carries inherent environmental risks. So far, most strikes have resulted in localized fires rather than major environmental releases, but the cumulative impact of multiple attacks increases overall environmental risk.
How long would it take Russia to repair damaged refineries?
Repair timelines vary dramatically based on the specific damage. Minor fires might be repaired in days or weeks, while damage to specialized processing units could require months or even years to fully restore, particularly given sanctions limiting access to certain technical components. The ongoing nature of attacks complicates repairs, as facilities may be struck again before restoration is complete.
Further Exploration
Readers interested in learning more about the geopolitical implications of energy infrastructure targeting can also explore related educational content from Oilprice.com, which offers regular analysis of global energy security issues and market impacts.
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New Quantum Breakthrough Could Lead to Super-Efficient Electronics
Scientists are getting closer and closer to unlocking the intricate dance of quantum physics to revolutionize the way we produce energy. Observing the quantum world is exceedingly difficult because the behaviors are happening at such a tiny scale, and so lightning fast, that the processes are all but invisible to humans. At MIT, researchers have developed an ingenious way of scaling up a recreation of the quantum Hall effect to more effectively observe a phenomenon that usually occurs at a scale too small and too fast to study.Quantum computing has garnered increasing attention for its potential to change computational processes in ways that could increase efficiency and thereby drastically reduce the tech sector’s energy needs. In certain applications, quantum computers could be up to 100 times more energy efficient than current supercomputers.
We know that the potential of quantum physics and quantum computing is massive within the energy sector, but there is still a lot that we don’t understand about the science behind it. Observing the quantum world is exceedingly difficult because the behaviors and reactions involved are happening at such a tiny scale, and so lightning fast, that the processes are all but invisible to humans.
But scientists are getting better at overcoming this challenge. At MIT, researchers have developed an ingenious way of scaling up a recreation of the quantum Hall effect to more effectively observe a phenomenon that usually occurs at a scale too small and too fast to study. Instead of observing electrons, the MIT team has found a way to superchill sodium atoms and control their spatial arrangement with lasers in a way that allows them to mimic the phenomenon of interest – a so-called “edge state.”
Normally, electrons move freely in all directions, scattering randomly when they encounter an obstacle due to friction. However, in certain contexts and with certain exotic materials, they behave differently, flowing together and in one direction along the material’s edge. This is known as the quantum Hall effect. And now, MIT scientists have found a way to meaningfully study this effect so that we can one day harness “edge-state” physics to revolutionize computing with virtually limitless energy.
“In this rare ‘edge state,’ electrons can flow without friction, gliding effortlessly around obstacles as they stick to their perimeter-focused flow,” explains an MIT news article. “Unlike in a superconductor, where all electrons in a material flow without resistance, the current carried by edge modes occurs only at a material’s boundary.”
This lack of resistance means a lack of energy loss, which could have enormous and disruptive implications for virtually any sector that uses modern technology. According to reporting from Interesting Engineering, “such frictionless movement of electrons can enable data and energy transfer across devices without any transmission losses, leading to the development of super-efficient electronic circuits and quantum computers.”
Quantum computing has garnered increasing attention for its potential to fundamentally change computational processes in ways that could increase efficiency and thereby drastically reduce the tech sector’s energy needs. In certain applications, quantum computers could be up to 100 times more energy efficient than current supercomputers. This could have enormous implications for AI and its ballooning energy footprint, as quantum computing could be especially well-suited to AI processing.
While normal computation is binary, with 1s and 0s serving as on- and off-switches, quantum computing operates via qubits, which can be both on and off simultaneously, like a coin spinning in the air before it lands as heads or tails. This simultaneous one-and-off state is called superposition, and it could completely change the fundamentals of computing.
Quantum computing and the field of quantum physics more broadly still have a very long way to go before they enter any kind of commercial domain. But our understanding of these phenomena – and their potential applications in the energy and tech sectors – are rapidly advancing. The recent breakthrough at MIT, by providing a reliable and more observable stand-in for quantum processes, could catalyze quantum experimenting, bringing us one major step closer to an infinite-energy future.
By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com
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Enviri (NVRI) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why
Shares of steel and waste handling company Enviri (NYSE:NVRI) jumped 3.5% in the afternoon session after a key inflation data aligned with forecasts. Investors interpreted the news as a positive sign that the Fed can support the economy without risking runaway inflation. The positive sentiment helped the major indices claw back some of the losses from a recent three-day slide, with stocks rising across various sectors. At $12.27 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $12,51 from September 2025.
Shares of steel and waste handling company Enviri (NYSE:NVRI) jumped 3.5% in the afternoon session after a key inflation data aligned with forecasts, bolstering hopes for continued interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation, showed a slight year-over-year increase in August but did not surprise economists. This report was met with relief on Wall Street, as it suggests inflationary pressures remain contained, giving the Federal Reserve more leeway to continue its monetary easing policy. Investors interpreted the news as a positive sign that the Fed can support the economy without risking runaway inflation. The positive sentiment helped the major indices claw back some of the losses from a recent three-day slide, with stocks rising across various sectors.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $12.27, up 2% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Enviri’s shares are very volatile and have had 23 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 11 months ago when the stock dropped 19.9% on the news that the company reported weak third-quarter earnings. We struggled to find many strong positives in these results. Its EBITDA forecast for the full year missed and its revenue fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this was a weaker quarter.
Enviri is up 48% since the beginning of the year, and at $12.27 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $12.51 from September 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Enviri’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $878.31.
Here at StockStory, we certainly understand the potential of thematic investing. Diverse winners from Microsoft (MSFT) to Alphabet (GOOG), Coca-Cola (KO) to Monster Beverage (MNST) could all have been identified as promising growth stories with a megatrend driving the growth. So, in that spirit, we’ve identified a relatively under-the-radar profitable growth stock benefiting from the rise of AI, available to you FREE via this link.
Forget OPEC Warnings The Real Oil Shock Is Happening Inside Russia
Global oil markets are showing increased instability, as Ukrainian drones are destroying key oil and gas infrastructure inside of Russia. Until now, no real crude oil price crash is showing; global prices are even very stable. The potential impact of the Flamingo Missile, combined with the ongoing drone attacks, underscores the evolving nature of the geopolitical risks in the oil market. Even OPEC+’s theoretical production and export increases may not be enough to mitigate this shift, or in some cases, might not be sufficient at all. This potential for a bullish market should prompt all market participants to adopt preparedness and strategic planning. To what extent, this will be possible will be a short-term question, especially given that the US and EU are increasing pressure on Russia. If Russia doesn’t manage to increase export volumes, domestic oil production may need to be shut in.Considering all these factors, the real net effect could be a decrease in global product availability, as the situation will increase globally, and prices will increase in the future.
Almost daily, reports are showcasing the strategic success of Ukraine’s campaign, which, in addition to its battlefield tactics, has effectively executed precision strikes and drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, and related logistics. These intentional strikes have targeted the Kremlin’s economic lifelines, leading some to assert that the most effective sanctions currently hitting Russia’s war chest or Putin’s lifeline are the Ukrainian drones.
While most energy analysts are still obsessed with OPEC, US shale, or Israel’s operations in Gaza, Russia, not only a pivotal player inside the so-called OPEC+ group, but also one of the world’s leading oil and gas exporters, is looking at a very dire situation. Ukrainian drones are not only degrading Moscow’s ability to turn Russian crude into exportable petroleum products (diesel, gasoline, kerosene) but also forcing Russian refineries to go offline. Both issues are hitting Putin’s war economy very hard, as they decrease options to monetize its hydrocarbon potential (exports) and also force higher domestic price settings for Russian citizens and external parties. Lately, in a move to squeeze Russia really, Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian oil ports, in a move to hit export potential, while in the end forcing Russian crude oil production to be shut in.
Related: Vitol Nears Deal to Sell Iraqi Kurdistan Oil Exports
The current situation, combined with increased geopolitical risks and strong global demand, suggests a potential shift towards a bullish environment. Even OPEC+’s theoretical production and export increases may not be enough to mitigate this shift, or in some cases, may not be sufficient at all. This potential for a bullish market should prompt all market participants to adopt preparedness and strategic planning.
The latest reports from Russia indicate that Ukrainian drones have hit dozens of Russian fuel facilities, while at the same time, maritime drones and missiles are being used. The potential of Ukraine’s latest military addition, the Flamingo Missile, could be a watershed development. This missile can reach much further into Russian territory with a larger payload, potentially causing significant damage to key oil and gas infrastructure. Western and Russian outlets have also indicated that over a million barrels per day of refining throughput is being hit or removed from the market, as major refineries and pipeline centers are being shut down or taken offline. For global oil markets, Russia’s exports are significant, as it is a leading exporter of diesel, fuel oil, and kerosene. The potential impact of the Flamingo Missile, combined with the ongoing drone attacks, underscores the evolving nature of the geopolitical risks in the oil market.
While global markets are being hit increasingly, even if additional Russian crude is exported, the situation has become very dire. Independent reports from Russia indicate severe fuel shortages in several regions of the country, not only impacting the war economy sectors (manufacturing, defense) but also increasing the potential for internal unrest. Russian oligarchs have been complaining about the fuel and energy situation for weeks. While Russian refineries, which supply the domestic market, are affected, seaborne crude flows are increasing, as Moscow is forced to export more. Russia doesn’t hold vast crude oil storage facilities or volumes, leaving it with no option but to export crude. Some Asian markets will be happy, as most Russian seaborne volumes will head there. Still, regional markets for Russian products will be struggling to find additional supplies.
All in all, this could mean a short-term increase in supply to Asia. To what extent this will be possible, given that the US and EU are increasing pressure, is, however, a valid question, especially when considering India. If Russia doesn’t manage to export the increased volumes, domestic oil production may need to be shut in. When the market recognizes the increased geopolitical risks, a higher risk premium will result in higher oil prices. Downstream, prices will increase globally, as the current situation and today’s statement of renewed, stricter export bans on diesel or other products by Moscow will impact the market. Asian or Middle Eastern refineries will not be able to counter this.
Considering all these factors, the real net effect could be a decrease in global product availability in some consuming regions, even as seaborne crude volumes remain robust. This could then lead to a somewhat unexpected tightening of markets. OPEC+ export increases are unlikely to make a significant difference. Over the last few months, most OPEC-8 increases have been technical, aimed at legitimizing existing overproduction. The remaining spare production capacity of the group, or even OPEC+ as a whole, is shrinking. Current scenarios do not even include a new confrontation in the Middle East or the East Med, US actions against Venezuela, or a large-scale force majeure. In this context, the role of OPEC+ as a swing producer is limited, and the market should not rely solely on its actions to stabilize the situation.
By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com
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How Disney’s Kimmel controversy highlights linear TV’s fragility
Disney pulled and then reinstated ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel’s show following his comments on the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. The decision drew swift backlash from viewers and across the entertainment industry. Hollywood actors, personalities, and media figures, including HBO’s John Oliver, urged consumers to cancel Disney+ and Hulu in protest. Sinclair and Nexstar each announced Friday they would resume airing the program, with Sinclair reversing course first, followed by Nexstar later in the day. The uproar comes amid a deeper shift in viewing habits, as cord-cutting intensifies, ad budgets follow audiences to streaming, and younger viewers increasingly discover late night moments as viral clips rather than live broadcasts.
The fallout, centered on Disney’s (DIS) ABC network, underscores just how vulnerable linear TV has become as major affiliates Sinclair (SBGI) and Nexstar (NXST) each announced Friday they would resume airing the program, with Sinclair reversing course first, followed by Nexstar later in the day.
Nexstar’s decision comes just a month after it announced a $6 billion deal to acquire rival broadcaster Tegna (TGNA), a transaction that still requires approval from the Federal Communications Commission.
Following Kimmel’s comments, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) chair Brendan Carr urged companies airing the program to take action and suggested the agency could explore potential remedies if they didn’t, adding a layer of regulatory scrutiny to the controversy.
Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission of the United States Brendan Carr speaks during the Concordia Annual Summit in New York, Monday, Sept. 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Andres Kudacki) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
“It’s certainly within the rights of Sinclair and Nexstar not to air programming that they don’t think fits with what their constituents want to see,” Rich Greenfield, partner and media analyst at Lightshed Partners, told Yahoo Finance Friday prior to Sinclair’s reversal. “That is fine. They have that right. But ultimately, that makes the long-term viability of shows like ‘Kimmel’ harder to put on national television.”
The decision drew swift backlash from viewers and across the entertainment industry. Hollywood actors, personalities, and media figures, including HBO’s John Oliver, urged consumers to cancel Disney+ and Hulu in protest, while online searches on how to cancel subscriptions spiked in the days after Kimmel’s suspension. Some advertisers on Sinclair and Nexstar stations also paused their campaigns in response.
But the uproar comes amid a deeper shift in viewing habits, as cord-cutting intensifies, ad budgets follow audiences to streaming, and younger viewers increasingly discover late-night moments as viral clips rather than live broadcasts. Greenfield said affiliate boycotts, like Nexstar’s ongoing ban and Sinclair’s initial pullback, only reinforce that trend.
“The more you water down linear broadcast TV, ultimately that is not a good thing for these broadcast TV stations as you look out over the next four or five years,” Greenfield said, arguing that sports, particularly live events like the NFL, remain the only assets still keeping audiences tethered to linear television.
Disney pulled and then reinstated ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel’s show following his comments on the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni/File Photo · REUTERS / Reuters
And even those are starting to move online as more live games stream exclusively on digital platforms.