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Texas’ Republicans mid-decade redistricting plan, supported by President Donald Trump, will leave several Democratic representatives in precarious positions ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Why It Matters

The GOP could use mid-decade redraws in several states to thwart Democratic gains in the midterms. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats, and Democrats are optimistic about a 2018-style “blue wave” next November as Trump’s approval rating flounders. If successful, the redraw efforts could help Republicans hold the House of Representatives—or at least narrow Democrats’ majority.

What to Know

Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, called a special session that will address redistricting after support from the White House. Trump has indicated he would like to see Republicans net five seats from the process.

Texas has leaned Republican for decades. Democrats made some inroads with voters in the 2010s, but the state shifted rightward in 2024 as the GOP won support from more Latino voters. Republicans are hoping those trends will last for the rest of the decade to allow them to redraw a handful of districts to become more conservative.

There is some risk that Republicans could stretch their voters too thin in some districts and leave some incumbents in more competitive races.

The exact plan has not been released, but here is an overview of the Democratic representatives most vulnerable. Newsweek reached out to spokespersons for each of these representatives for comment via email.

Representative Henry Cuellar

Cuellar, a moderate Democrat, is one of two Democrats representing a South Texas district won by Trump last November and is viewed as perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent. Cuellar won reelection by more than five points—but Trump won the former Democratic stronghold by about seven points.

Representative Julie Johnson, a Texas Democrat, speaks during a press conference in Leesburg, Virginia on March 13, 2025. Representative Henry Cuellar, a Texas Democrat, speaks during a press conference in Washington, D.C. on July 30,… Representative Julie Johnson, a Texas Democrat, speaks during a press conference in Leesburg, Virginia on March 13, 2025. Representative Henry Cuellar, a Texas Democrat, speaks during a press conference in Washington, D.C. on July 30, 2021. More Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images/ Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Republicans could connect the swingy areas around San Antonio and Laredo to more conservative rural areas to give Republicans a boost in the district.

Representative Vicente Gonzalez

Gonzalez is the other South Texas centrist at risk. His district, like that of Cuellar, zoomed to the right last November. It spans across the southern part of the state and includes areas like Brownsville and towns near McAllen. Republicans could use a similar tactic, spreading those voters across more districts and including more conservative, rural areas in Gonzalez’s district.

Gonzalez won the district by fewer than three points while Trump won it by about four points.

Whether or not Trump’s gains with Latino voters are permanent will be the determining factor in whether or not these redraws can be successful. If these voters shift back to the left, it may be more challenging for Republicans to win those seats and others that could take in South Texas voters next November.

Representative Lizzie Fletcher

Fletcher represents a suburban Houston seat that was redrawn in the last round of redistricting to pack in Democratic voters. But now, Republicans are working to win that seat back by dividing the Houston suburbs, as well as nearby areas that have shifted to the right, up across more districts.

Fletcher’s district is viewed as the most likely to be drawn up, but she could run for the neighboring seat held by former Representative Sylvester Turner, who died in March.

Fletcher was elected to a more competitive iteration of the seat in the 2018 midterms.

Representatives Julie Johnson or Mark Veasey

Republicans are also eyeing a new right-leaning district near Dallas, though it’s not clear whether they’ll target the eastern suburban seat represented by Johnson, first elected last November, or the Fort Worth seat represented by Veasey.

Johnson’s seat is less blue than the one held by Veasey, though she still won her race by 23 points last November. Whichever seat they eliminate could lead to a primary between the two Democrats.

Representatives Greg Casar or Lloyd Doggett

The fifth seat Republicans may redraw is in Central Texas. Representative Joaquin Castro’s San Antonio district is unlikely to become more conservative, but Casar’s seat, which spans from Austin to San Antonio, is likely to be redrawn. This would put Casar and Doggett in a primary for a single Austin-area seat that would contain some of the most left-leaning areas of the state.

What People Are Saying

Representative Fletcher wrote in a statement earlier in July: “Mid-decade redistricting is disrespectful to citizens, no matter their political affiliation, and is a betrayal of our democratic principle that all citizens should have a say in our government. Once a decade, redistricting takes place not for politicians but for citizens. Politicians should not trade their constituents to maximize partisan political advantage. They deserve—and should expect—better from those elected to serve them.”

Representative Gonzalez in testimony before the Texas redistricting committee: “I am ashamed to see such a blatant attempt to sell out Texans and shut out key communities—like my own in the Rio Grande Valley—from the process. Our community is strong, and we deserve to be properly represented during both this process and in Congress. I wrote to you all just a few days ago urging you to schedule a field hearing—in-person, not virtual—in the Rio Grande Valley, where all of our citizens have the opportunity to participate if they so choose.”

President Donald Trump told reporters this month: “No, no, just a very simple redrawing. We pick up five seats. But we have a couple of other states where we will pick up seats also.”

What Happens Next

Texas isn’t the only state considering redistricting. Other Republican states like Florida and Missouri could follow suit, while Democratic leaders in states like California have said they could retaliate by redrawing their own maps.