Retaliate now, later or never: What Iran’s next move could be

5 hours ago Share Save Frank Gardner BBC security correspondent Share Save

Reuters Iran and Israel have continued to fire missiles at each other following the US strikes overnight

Iran has responded furiously to the overnight US airstrikes on three of its nuclear sites, vowing what it calls “everlasting consequences”. But beyond the words, there will be feverish discussions taking place at the highest level inside Iran’s security and intelligence establishment. Should they escalate the conflict through retaliation against US interests, or, as US President Donald Trump has called on them to do, negotiate, which in practice means giving up all nuclear enrichment inside Iran?

This internal debate will be taking place at a time when many senior Iranian commanders will be looking over their shoulders, wondering if they are about to be the next target of an Israeli precision airstrike or whether someone in the room has already betrayed them to Mossad, Israel’s overseas spy agency. Broadly speaking, there are three different strategic courses of action now open to Iran. None of them are risk free, and uppermost in the minds of those taking the decisions will be the survival of the Islamic Republic regime.

Retaliate hard and soon

Many will be baying for blood. Iran has been humiliated, first by Israel, now by what it has often in the past called ‘the Great Satan’, its term for the US. Iran’s ongoing exchange of fire with Israel continues into its tenth day but retaliating against the US brings a whole new level of risk, not just for Iran but for the whole region. Iran is believed to retain about half of its original stock of around 3,000 missiles, having used up and lost the remainder in exchanges of fire with Israel. Follow latest on US strikes on Iran

What we know about US strikes on Iran Iran has a target list of around 20 US bases to choose from in the broader Middle East. One of the nearest and most obvious is the sprawling headquarters of the powerful US Navy’s Fifth Fleet at Mina Salman in Bahrain. But Iran may be reluctant to strike at a neighbouring Gulf Arab state. More likely, perhaps, would be to use its proxies in Iraq and Syria to attack any one of the relatively isolated US bases at At-Tanf, Ain Al-Asad or Erbil. Iran has form here. When Trump ordered the assassination of Iran’s Quds Force leader Qassim Suleimani in 2020, Iran responded by targeting US military personnel in Iraq but avoided killing any by giving prior notice. It may not do so this time.

Reuters Satellite images showing before and after the US struck the nuclear facility

Iran could also launch ‘swarm attacks’ on US Navy warships using drones and fast torpedo boats, something that the Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy has practiced exhaustively over the years. The aim, if it went down this route, would be to overwhelm US naval defences through sheer numbers. It could also ask its allies in Yemen, the Houthis, to resume their attacks on Western shipping passing between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Iran’s secretive nuclear site that only a US bomb could hit There are also economic targets Iran could strike, but this would antagonise its Gulf Arab neighbours who have recently reached an uneasy modus vivendi with the Islamic Republic. The biggest and most damaging target here would be choking off the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20 per cent of the world’s oil supplies pass daily. Iran could do this by sowing sea mines, creating a lethal hazard for both naval and commercial shipping. Then there is cyber. Iran, along with North Korea, Russia and China, has a sophisticated offensive cyber capability. Inserting destructive malware into US networks or businesses is undoubtedly one option under consideration.

AFP via Getty Images Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said US President Donald Trump has “betrayed” his country

Retaliate later

This would mean waiting until the current tension has subsided and launching a surprise attack at a time of Iran’s choosing, when US bases were no longer on maximum alert. Such an attack could also target US diplomatic, consular or trade missions, or extend to the assassination of individuals. The risk here for Iran, of course, is that it would likely invoke renewed US attacks just as ordinary Iranians are returning to normal life.

Trump says Iran must make peace or face future attacks after US strikes

Don’t retaliate

U.S. bases and assets have been at their highest state of alert for months, but after Israel began warring with Iran on June 13, the officials, who spoke earlier in the week, said concerns were heightened even more about the potential for attacks on U.S. assets from Iran or its proxies in the region.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, warned of “everlasting consequences.”

Iran has long relied on asymmetric tactics against stronger foes, including terrorist attacks. In 1983, the U.S. accused Iran of orchestrating the bombings of a Marine barracks and embassy in Beirut through its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, killing hundreds.

But it is not clear that Iran could carry out a terrorist attacks inside the United States. In the past, Tehran has struggled to carry out operations on American soil, using hired hitmen that have botched their missions, according to U.S. authorities.

With fewer reliable partners in the Middle East and little regional appetite for a wider war, experts say that Tehran faces a narrower set of options and a sharper set of risks as it weighs how to respond.

“They’re really stuck,” H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, told NBC News. “If they fight back by striking American targets, then the U.S. is very likely to respond with a much more aggressive and continual campaign that could cause even more damage, not only to the regime, but to the country at large.”

“But if Iran doesn’t respond, the cohesion of its regime,” a ruling class weighed down by corruption, public discontent and growing disillusionment with its promises of resistance, “could really be challenged,” he added.

As they weigh their response, Iranian leaders will have one eye on their restive population, experts said. An open-ended conflict with Israel and the United States could pose a threat to the regime itself, said Jonathan Panikoff, a former career intelligence officer now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Recognizing it is no match for U.S. and Israeli military power, Iran may choose a more limited response that would leave it a way out of the confrontation, he predicted.

After the U.S. killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a January 2020 drone strike ordered by Trump in his first term, Iran launched a barrage of missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq that wounded dozens but caused no fatalities. Some U.S. officials and regional analysts at the time viewed the Iranian response as calibrated, a way to send a message without igniting a full-blown war with America.

Given the apparent weakness of Iran’s air defenses, which Israeli jets have targeted for the last two weeks, Iranian leaders may choose the option of waiting until they can regroup and organize retaliatory action. In some cases in the past, Iran has targeted Iranian critics abroad years after they left the country.

“In the end, they are going to try to be calculated and narrow about how they respond,” Panikoff said.

Potential missile attacks

Since Israel’s initial attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iranian missiles have pierced the country’s vaunted missile-defense system, the Iron Dome, reduced apartment blocks to rubble, and killed at least 24 people. After the U.S. attacks, the nation launched a missile barrage into Israel on Sunday morning, causing damage and injuries in Tel Aviv.

“Iran will try to redouble its efforts against Israel in order to show its determination to inflict damage on its arch enemy,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. “We are likely to witness major escalation between Iran and Israel in the next few days.”

However, Gerges added, Iran will try and avoid “being dragged into an all-out war with the United States.”

In the Persian Gulf, Arab states that host key U.S. air and naval bases “are terrified right now” about possible Iranian retaliatory missile or drone strikes on American targets in their territories, according to Panikoff.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard argues that the sheer number and spread of U.S. bases in the region, where it has some 40,000 troops, are not a strength, but a “point of vulnerability.”

The U.S. has bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, among other countries. Last week, it moved some aircraft and ships that may be vulnerable to a potential attack, and has limited access to its al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

But it’s unclear whether Iranian missiles could reach U.S. or allied forces in the Gulf without being shot down. Israel has managed to intercept many of the ballistic missiles and drones that Iran has launched over the past week.

Hellyer, the senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran still has the power to launch missile attacks, “but only because Israelis haven’t taken out all of their missile launchers.”

Iran still has around 40% of its launchers, Hellyer said, “so the threat hasn’t been removed in that regard, but they’ve been degraded quite a lot.”

On Sunday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that while the U.S. did not want war, it will “act swiftly and decisively when our people, our partners or our interests are threatened.”

A roundup of reactions as US joins Israel’s war and attacks three Iranian nuclear sites after days of speculation over US involvement in the conflict.

The United States has bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, further escalating the war between Israel and Iran.

President Donald Trump late on Saturday said the US attacks “obliterated” the Iranian facilities in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz as he threatened more strikes to eliminate the country’s nuclear enrichment capacity if Tehran “does not make peace”.

Iran acknowledged the attacks, saying its personnel working at the nuclear sites were evacuated before the attacks.

The US strikes came more than a week after Israel launched a military campaign against Iran, which retaliated with missile attacks, resulting in hundreds of casualties on both sides.

Here are some key reactions from around the world following the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites:

Iran

In his first public remarks after the strikes, Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi accused the US of breaching international law.

“The United States, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has committed a grave violation of the UN Charter, international law and the NPT [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] by attacking Iran’s peaceful nuclear installations,” Araghchi said in a social media post.

“The events this morning [Sunday] are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences. Each and every member of the UN must be alarmed over this extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behavior.”

He added that Iran “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people”.

Israel

“Congratulations, President Trump. Your bold decision to target Iran’s nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised statement.

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“History will record that President Trump acted to deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons.”

United Nations

“I am gravely alarmed by the use of force by the United States against Iran today,” Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.

“This is a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security”, he said, adding that there is a “growing risk” that this conflict could “rapidly get out of control – with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world”.

Guterres called on member states to “de-escalate” and “uphold their obligations under the UN Charter and other rules of international law”.

“At this perilous hour, it is critical to avoid a spiral of chaos. There is no military solution. The only path forward is diplomacy. The only hope is peace.”

Hamas

In a statement, the Palestinian armed group said it condemned “in the strongest terms the brazen aggression of the United States against the territory and sovereignty of Iran”.

“The US aggression against Iran is a dangerous escalation, blind obedience to the occupiers’ agenda, and a clear violation of international law,” Hamas said.

“We declare our solidarity with Iran, its leadership, and its people, and we have full confidence in Iran’s ability to defend its sovereignty.”

Hezbollah

The Lebanese armed group condemned in the “strongest terms, the barbaric [and] treacherous” US attack on Iran.

“It constitutes a reckless, dangerous, and uncalculated escalation that threatens to expand the circle of war and push the region and the world toward the unknown if it is not stopped and deterrent measures are not taken,” Hezbollah said in a statement in Arabic.

“This aggression confirms the full and direct partnership between America and Israel in planning and execution, not only in the war against the Islamic Republic, but also in all the wars and crimes the region is facing, in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.”

“We believe that these attacks will not deter Iran from continuing its progress and development,” it added.

Houthis

The Yemeni Iran-aligned group slammed the US attack on Iran as a flagrant violation of all international laws and conventions, which represents a threat to regional and global peace and security.

In a statement on the Houthi-allied Al Masirah TV, the group said the attack comes within the US’s “unlimited” support to Israel.

“This aggression comes against the backdrop of Iran’s supportive stances on the Palestinian cause and its support for jihad and resistance movements against the Zionist entity,” the Houthis said.

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The group added that such aggression will not deter Iran from continuing its “path of resistance” against both the US and Israel.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia expressed its “great concern” following the US attacks, according to a statement by the foreign ministry on X.

“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is following with great concern the developments in the sisterly Islamic Republic of Iran, represented by the targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States of America,” the Saudi foreign ministry posted on X.

The kingdom “expresses the need to exert all efforts to exercise restraint, de-escalate, and avoid escalation”, calling on the international community to boost efforts in such “highly sensitive circumstances” to reach a political solution to end the crisis.

Qatar

Qatar says it fears serious repercussions after the US air strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran.

The foreign ministry “warns that the current dangerous escalation in the region may lead to catastrophic consequences at both the regional and international levels,” a statement said.

“It calls on all parties to exercise wisdom, restraint, and to avoid further escalation.”

Oman

Oman, which was mediating nuclear talks between the US and Iran, has strongly condemned the US strikes.

The Gulf state “expresses deep concern, denunciation and condemnation of the escalation resulting from the direct air strikes launched by the United States on sites in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the official Oman News Agency said.

Iraq

Iraq has warned the US attacks on its neighbour Iran’s nuclear facilities threaten peace and stability in the Middle East.

“This military escalation constitutes a grave threat to peace and security in the Middle East and poses serious risks to regional stability,” government spokesperson Basim Alawadi said.

Russia

The deputy head of President Vladimir Putin’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said several nations would be ready to provide Iran with nuclear weapons. He did not say which countries, but added the US attack caused minimal damage and would not stop Tehran from pursuing nuclear weapons.

Russia’s foreign ministry said it strongly condemns the US attacks on Iran.

“The irresponsible decision to subject the territory of a sovereign state to missile and bomb attacks, whatever the arguments it may be presented with, flagrantly violates international law, the Charter of the United Nations and the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council,” the ministry said in its statement.

China

The foreign ministry said it “strongly condemns” US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, that “seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law, and have exacerbated tensions in the Middle East”.

“China calls on the parties to the conflict, Israel in particular, to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible, ensure the safety of civilians, and start dialogue and negotiation,” the ministry said on X.

“China stands ready to work with the international community to pool efforts together and uphold justice, and work for restoring peace and stability in the Middle East,” it added.

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United Kingdom

Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Iran to return to the negotiating table and said that stability in the region remained a priority, according to a statement from Downing Street.

“Iran’s nuclear programme is a grave threat to international security. Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat,” Starmer said in a statement.

European Union

The EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has called for de-escalation and a return to negotiations.

“I urge all sides to step back, return to the negotiating table and prevent further escalation,” Kallas wrote on X, adding Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and that EU foreign ministers will discuss the situation on Monday.

France

France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has expressed concern and urged “the parties to exercise restraint to avoid any escalation likely to lead to an extension of the conflict”.

In a statement on X, he added that France was “convinced that a lasting solution to this issue requires a negotiated solution within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty”.

Germany

Chancellor Frederick Merz has called on Iran to immediately re-enter nuclear talks with the US so there can be a diplomatic solution, according to government spokesperson.

“The Chancellor and security cabinet ministers will coordinate closely with their European Union and US partners throughout the day,” spokesman Stefan Kornelius said in a statement.

Italy

“Now we hope that, after this attack, which caused massive damage to nuclear weapons production and posed a threat to the entire region, a de-escalation can begin and Iran can sit down at the negotiating table,” Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told state broadcaster RAI.

Switzerland

Switzerland has urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint and immediately return to diplomacy, after the United States joined Israel’s war with Tehran by striking Iranian nuclear sites.

“Switzerland emphasises the importance of full respect for international law, including the UN Charter and international humanitarian law,” the foreign ministry said on its website.

US Democrats

The top Democrat in the House of Representatives accused Trump of pushing the country towards war.

“President Trump misled the country about his intentions, failed to seek congressional authorization for the use of military force and risks American entanglement in a potentially disastrous war in the Middle East,” Congressman Hakeem Jeffries said in a statement.

“Donald Trump shoulders complete and total responsibility for any adverse consequences that flow from his unilateral military action.”

US groups CAIR and AIPAC

The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), a US Muslim rights group, said the US attack is an “illegal and unjustified” act of war that comes under pressure from the “out-of-control” Israeli government, and despite the longstanding conclusion of the US intelligence that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon.

On the other hand, the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the powerful pro-Israel group in the US, praised the strikes ordered by Trump and said the US “must now work with our allies to protect our troops and regional interests against Iranian attacks”.

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters that it is crucial that there is a quick de-escalation of the conflict.

“We are closely monitoring the situation there with grave concern,” he said.

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ICAN

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons says the US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities were “senseless and reckless”.

“By joining Israel’s attack on Iran, the US is also breaking international law. Military action against Iran is not the way to resolve concerns over Tehran’s nuclear programme,” ICAN’s executive director Melissa Parke said in a statement.

“Given that US intelligence agencies assess Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons, this is a senseless and reckless act that could undermine international efforts to prevent the further proliferation of nuclear weapons.”

Geneva-based ICAN won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize for its key role in drafting the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in 2021. Some 69 countries have ratified it to date, four more have directly acceded to the treaty, and another 25 have signed it, although none of the nuclear weapons states have come on board.

Australia

“We have been clear that Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program has been a threat to international peace and security,” the Australian government spokesperson said.

“We note the US President’s statement that now is the time for peace,” he said, adding that the security situation in the region is “highly volatile”.

“We continue to call for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy,” the spokesperson said.

New Zealand

“We acknowledge developments in the last 24 hours, including President Trump’s announcement of US strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters said.

“Ongoing military action in the Middle East is extremely worrying, and it is critical further escalation is avoided,” he said, adding that New Zealand “strongly supports efforts towards diplomacy”.

“We urge all parties to return to talks. Diplomacy will deliver a more enduring resolution than further military action.”

Mexico

“The ministry urgently calls for diplomatic dialogue for peace between the parties involved in the Middle East conflict, Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on their X account.

“In keeping with our constitutional principles of foreign policy and our country’s pacifist conviction, we reiterate our call to de-escalate tensions in the region,” the ministry said.

“The restoration of peaceful coexistence among the states of the region is the highest priority.”

Venezuela

“Venezuela Condemns US Military Aggression Against Iran and Demands an Immediate Cessation of Hostilities,” Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil said in a Telegram post.

“The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela firmly and categorically condemns the bombing carried out by the United States military, at the request of the State of Israel, against nuclear facilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan complexes,” he said.

Cuba

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel strongly condemned the US bombing, saying it constituted a “dangerous escalation” and a serious violation of the UN Charter.

He added that it “plunges humanity into a crisis with irreversible consequences”.

Chile

Chilean President Gabriel Boric also called the US action illegal.

“Chile condemns this US attack,” he wrote on X. “Having power does not authorise you to use it in violation of the rules that we as humanity have given ourselves. Even if you are the United States.”

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, accompanied by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, takes a question from a reporter during a news conference at the Pentagon on June 22, in Arlington, Virginia. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

The US military’s operation against Iranian nuclear facilities this weekend “had the desired effect,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Sunday, but an assessment of the attack’s full impact is still underway.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said it’s “way too early” to comment on whether Iran still retains some nuclear capabilities, though Hegseth and US President Donald Trump had said they believed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions were “obliterated.”

Asked by CNN about the current state of Iran’s program, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said, “I can’t say it’s been eliminated. I can say it’s been hit very hard. Both by the Israeli attacks and absolutely by the American attack overnight.”

Here is more on the latest developments:

• How the strikes unfolded: “Operation Midnight Hammer” involved more than 125 aircraft, according to US officials. B-2 bombers dropped more than a dozen massive “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz facilities, while Tomahawk missiles struck Isfahan. Caine provided the most thorough public timeline released since the attack, and satellite imagery has provided a glimpse at the impact point.

• What Iran has said: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the “warmongering” White House and said it will be “fully responsible” for the consequences of the strikes. He also expressed deep skepticism about diplomacy moving forward. The world is still awaiting an official response from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, some Iranian leaders have downplayed the impact of the strikes to Tehran’s nuclear program.

• Vance aims to soothe concerns: Vice President JD Vance sought to calm Americans — and some fellow Republicans — who fear the US could be drifting toward another extended conflict in the Middle East. “I think the president has been very clear that we are not interested in protracted conflicts in the Middle East,” Vance told ABC News’ “This Week.” He added that the US is “not at war with Iran. We’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program.”

• How Trump made the decision: It came after days of public deliberation, as Trump alternated between issuing militaristic threats against Iran on social media and holding private concerns that a military strike could drag the US into prolonged war. By Thursday, allies who spoke to him said it was clear that the decision was already made. Read a deep dive here.

Here’s what Trump said in his address as broadcasted live by Fox News and transcribed by Sky News:

“A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime: Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan.

“Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise.

“Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror.

“Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success.

“Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.

“Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.

“For 40 years Iran has been saying death to America, death to Israel. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs. That was their speciality.

“We lost over a thousand people and hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the world have died as a direct result of their hate.

“In particular, so many were killed by their general, Qassem Soleimani.

“I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen.

“It will not continue.

“I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.

“I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful job they’ve done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight and all of the United States military on an operation the likes of which the world has not seen in many, many decades.

“Hopefully, we will no longer need their services in this capacity. I hope that so.

“I also want to congratulate the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Rosen Kane, spectacular general and all of the brilliant military minds involved in this attack.

“With all of that being said, this cannot continue.

“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.

“Remember, there are many targets left.

“Tonight’s was the most difficult of them all by far, and perhaps the most lethal.

“But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.

“There’s no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight. Not even close. There’s never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.

“Tomorrow, General Kaine, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth will have a press conference at 8am at the Pentagon.

“I want to just thank everybody and in particular, God, I want to just say, we love you, God, and we love our great military. Protect them. God bless the Middle East. God bless Israel, and God bless America.

“Thank you very much. Thank you.”