Israel’s longest serving prime minister faces the difficult task of overcoming opposition both domestically and abroad.

Wherever Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looks, trouble seems to be looming.

Criticism of his government’s war on Gaza is mounting, with charges of genocide and war crimes coming from both foreign leaders and former Israeli prime ministers.

Internationally, Israel is looking increasingly isolated, as images of the starvation it is inflicting on Gaza flood global media.

Domestically, Netanyahu faces deep criticism of a war many believe he is only prolonging to stay in power.

Legally, the prosecution in his corruption trial has begun its cross-examination of him, while politically, he is facing a possible collapse of his governing coalition.

Netanyahu has never seemed so embattled in his career, but is this really the end for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister?

Here’s what we know.

Just how unpopular is Netanyahu with the Israeli public?

Very, and it’s growing.

Netanyahu has long been accused of manipulating the war in Gaza for his political ends, an accusation that gained new momentum since March, when Israel broke the ceasefire with the Palestinian group Hamas, further endangering the captives held in Gaza.

In late May, a poll for Channel 12 television showed a majority of Israelis thought Netanyahu cared more about retaining his grip on power than returning the captives.

Most of the protests held in Israel have focused on the captives taken during the Hamas-led assault of October 7, 2023, and how extending the war for political motivations endangers them.

But recently, a small but significant number of Israelis have also protested against the intense suffering their government is inflicting upon the people of Gaza. In addition to an open letter from the country’s academics denouncing Israel’s devastation of Gaza, a growing number of photographs of Palestinian children are being held by demonstrators as part of wider Saturday night protests against the war in Tel Aviv.

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Even members of the military are growing unhappy with the war in Gaza.

As reports of reservists refusing to fight increased, open letters by current and former officers in various divisions appeared, calling for an end to the war.

What political criticism of Netanyahu has there been?

Two of Israel’s former prime ministers have recently publicly criticised Netanyahu.

Ehud Barak, a former general and prime minister from 1999 to 2001, said in Time magazine that Netanyahu must choose between a deal brokered by United States President Donald Trump to free the captives and end the war, or continuing with his politically motivated “war of deception”.

Ehud Olmert, prime minister from 2006 to 2009, wrote in Haaretz that Israel was guilty of having committed war crimes in Gaza and that: “This is now a private political war.”

“A sane country does not wage war against civilians, does not kill babies as a pastime, and does not engage in mass population displacement,” former general and leader of the Democrats party, Yair Golan, told local radio station Reshet Bet.

He was referring to the stated plans of far-right ministers like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to expel Palestinians from Gaza in order for Israelis to settle it.

Olmert added on Tuesday that Trump should tell Netanyahu that “enough is enough”.

What is the threat to Netanyahu’s coalition?

For years, Israel has been divided over the conscription of its ultra-Orthodox youth, who were exempt from military service if they were full-time students in religious schools or yeshivas.

In June 2024, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled that the exception could no longer apply, fulfilling a longstanding demand by secular Israelis who protested against the double standard.

But the leaders of the two ultra-Orthodox parties in the ruling coalition, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), are threatening to collapse the government unless it passes legislation that would override the Supreme Court decision.

It is unclear whether elections would result in a parliament more sympathetic to the ultra-Orthodox, but recent developments, like plans to increase the number of conscription notices to ultra-Orthodox students, have pushed the issue to the fore.

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How internationally isolated has Israel become?

Arab and European leaders have become increasingly vocal in their criticisms of Netanyahu and the war.

However, for now at least, he still has the vital support of the US and President Donald Trump.

In early May, Saudi Arabia and the Arab League slammed Netanyahu after he suggested that expelled Palestinians would be able to settle in Saudi territory.

Later the same month, Canada, France, and the United Kingdom, who had all previously supported Israel’s war on Gaza, issued a statement describing the level of human suffering in the enclave as “intolerable”.

Spain and Ireland, which, along with Norway, recognised a Palestinian state in May 2024, have also called for action to be taken against Israel and the Netanyahu government.

The UK, along with Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway, also announced on Tuesday that they would impose sanctions on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.

How long Netanyahu will keep Trump’s support, however, is not clear, as speculation that the mercurial US president may be tiring of Netanyahu is widespread and growing.

And his legal problems?

Netanyahu has been embroiled in multiple corruption investigations since 2019. If he is found guilty, he faces jail, possibly up to 10 years.

His trial, which began in 2020, has faced numerous delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic and, more recently, the war on Gaza, which he is accused of extending and at times exacerbating precisely to avoid his trial.

Critics also say he is extending the war to avoid being held accountable for his government’s failings during the October 7 attack.

So, is time up for Benjamin Netanyahu?

Controversy and scandal have followed Netanyahu throughout his political career, and opposition to his rule is growing within Israel and parts of the West, yet he may still survive, observers say.

However, to do so, Netanyahu must retain US support for his government while sustaining a war that Trump appears to want ended.

“I don’t know if Netanyahu can come back from this,” one of his former aides, Mitchell Barak, told Al Jazeera in May.

“There’s a lot of talk about Netanyahu being at the end of his line … They’ve been saying that for years, and he’s still here … but I can’t see any more magic tricks that are available to him.”

The sudden ceasefire between Israel and Iran has triggered a wave of diplomatic activity across the region, raising cautious hopes that it may help unlock negotiations for a truce in the war-ravaged Gaza Strip.

With more than 20 months of destruction, over 56,000 Palestinians killed, and Gaza’s infrastructure on the verge of collapse, the question dominating political corridors is whether this moment of regional de-escalation between Tehran and Tel Aviv can serve as a springboard for ending Israel’s genocidal war.

While the ceasefire between Israel and Iran did not directly mention Gaza, the shift in tone has sparked renewed efforts from key mediators, mainly Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, to break the stalemate between Israel and Hamas.

However, observers warn that the Gaza file is far more complex, and regional “momentum” may not be enough to overcome entrenched political realities on both sides.

Back channels, guarantees, and US mediation

Palestinian-American businessman Bishara Bahbah, who has acted as an unofficial go-between for Hamas and the United States, believed momentum is growing among key mediators [Egypt, Qatar, and Washington] to close a deal in Gaza.

In a televised interview on Cairo-based al-Ghad on Tuesday, Bahbah revealed that while the Gaza situation is far more complex than the one between Israel and Iran, “there is serious movement” in the talks.

“The environment has changed,” he remarked. “There is more focus, more urgency. Mediators want to avoid another prolonged round of war, and the political conditions now might support that.”

Bahbah spoke of several proposals on the table and that disagreements between Hamas and Israel have narrowed mainly to “technical points”, the phrasing of specific clauses, and agreement on numeric thresholds.

He also revealed that he had met recently with senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad to discuss the movement’s expectations and needs.

“There is clear recognition that Gaza cannot sustain this war much longer,” he said. “Hamas wants a dignified exit, and there’s a genuine desire to reach an agreement if key concerns are addressed.”

Among the proposed terms is a truce that would allow for a massive humanitarian aid entry and the evacuation of critical medical cases to hospitals abroad. “We are serious,” Bahbah said in a message to Gaza’s civilians. “You are not forgotten.”

He stressed that US President Donald Trump is willing to personally guarantee that Israel would not violate the terms of the agreement, a significant development, as Hamas has long demanded binding international guarantees. “For the first time,” Bahbah said, “a US president is offering a personal guarantee.”

Currently, three major points of contention remain between the parties. According to Bahbah, two of them have been resolved, and the final point is expected to be addressed within days. Egypt, he said, has extended an invitation to an Israeli delegation to return to Cairo, where the agreement’s fate could be sealed.

Meanwhile, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari confirmed that the Israel-Iran ceasefire has introduced “significant momentum” into ongoing efforts to secure a truce in Gaza. However, he cautioned that the current deadlock remains unresolved.

“We are in contact with all the relevant actors: Hamas, Israel, Iran, and the United States,” Al-Ansari said. “The atmosphere is more conducive than before, but the path forward remains complicated.”

He refrained from disclosing the exact nature of the obstacles but confirmed that Qatar remains willing to continue its mediation efforts, provided the political will exists on both sides.

Hamas in a weakened position?

While negotiations may be progressing, Hamas’s position has been significantly weakened. West Bank-based political analyst Esmat Mansour told The New Arab that Hamas is facing “a narrowing political field” and increasing isolation.

“For the first time, Hamas may be forced to rely entirely on itself,” Mansour said. “Iran has stepped back, Hezbollah doesn’t want to escalate in the north, and Syria is in no position to intervene.”

He explained that Iran’s decision to end its confrontation with Israel without linking it to the Palestinian cause signals a new pragmatism.

“Hamas sees this clearly. It knows that the axis of resistance, while supportive rhetorically, will not join it on the battlefield,” Mansour added.

He noted that this leaves Hamas confronting both military and humanitarian exhaustion. “They have absorbed massive losses, Gaza’s infrastructure is in ruins, and the people are suffering. That creates internal pressure that could push Hamas toward compromise,” he said.

However, Mansour emphasised that Hamas will not want to appear as having been defeated. “It needs symbolic political gains, even if the core demands aren’t met. That could be recognising its governance role or commitments to post-war reconstruction,” he added.

He added that Israeli fatigue is also evident. “Public pressure on Netanyahu is mounting, and the army is questioning the value of continued operations. That shared exhaustion opens a narrow window for diplomacy.”

Reham Odeh, a political analyst in Gaza, expects a temporary truce to be reached by July, followed by talks on post-war arrangements. But she warned that Israel may aim to exclude Hamas from any future role in the Strip.

“There are two scenarios,” she said to TNA. “Either Hamas agrees to withdraw politically in exchange for guarantees elsewhere, or it resists, and we enter a period of instability no war, but no peace either.”

Between symbolism and strategy

For Gaza-based political analyst Hussam al-Dajani, the Iranian ceasefire illustrates that military conflicts are ultimately resolved through political will.

“If Trump and regional powers helped end the Iran-Israel escalation, they could apply the same energy to Gaza,” he told TNA.

Al-Dajani argued that both sides are looking for a political exit. “Netanyahu is facing a collapse in public confidence, while Hamas is facing a collapse of infrastructure and morale. Both need a way out,” he said.

Still, he warned against placing faith in unwritten guarantees. “Hamas will not accept verbal assurances. Experience has shown that these can be manipulated. Any agreement must be signed, clear, and internationally backed,” he added.

He also noted that while Hamas is manoeuvring for political gains, Israel, too, is reluctant to commit to a comprehensive political deal.

“Israel wants security without political concessions. Hamas wants recognition without appearing defeated,” he continued.

“The real question,” he said, “is not whether momentum exists, but whether it can overcome distrust, trauma, and competing interests.”

Under the deal, 10 living captives will be freed, 18 bodies returned in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners, Hamas says.

The Palestinian group Hamas has submitted its response to a United States-backed ceasefire proposal, but a leading official from the group said the proposed deal offered “no guarantees to end the war”.

Speaking to Al Jazeera on Saturday, Basem Naim said that Hamas had still “responded positively” to the latest proposal relayed to it by US special envoy Steve Witkoff, despite the Palestinian group saying that the proposal was different to one it had agreed upon with Witkoff a week earlier.

“One week ago, we agreed with Mr Witkoff on one proposal, and we said, ‘This is acceptable, we can consider this a negotiating paper,’” Naim said. “He went to the other party, to the Israelis, to get their response. Instead of having a response to our proposal, he brought us a new proposal … which had nothing to do with what we agreed upon.”

In a statement released earlier on Saturday, Hamas had said that it had submitted a response to Witkoff, and that the proposal “aims to achieve a permanent ceasefire, a comprehensive withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and ensure the flow of aid” to Palestinians in Gaza.

Hamas added that 10 living Israeli captives would be released as part of the agreement, as well as the bodies of 18 dead Israelis, in exchange for an “agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners”.

Witkoff called Hamas’s response “totally unacceptable”.

“Hamas should accept the framework proposal we put forward as the basis for proximity talks, which we can begin immediately this coming week,” the envoy said in a post on social media. “That is the only way we can close a 60-day ceasefire deal in the coming days in which half of the living hostages and half of those who are deceased will come home to their families, and in which we can have at the proximity talks substantive negotiations in good-faith to try to reach a permanent ceasefire.”

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed Hamas’s response, “As Witkoff said, Hamas’s response is unacceptable and sets the situation back. Israel will continue its action for the return of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”

Israel has now killed more than 54,000 Palestinians since October 2023, with starvation looming across Gaza after weeks of Israeli blockade, and only a small flow of aid since Israel allowed it to resume in mid-May.

Starvation

With hopes for a permanent truce seemingly fading once again, the level of hunger and desperation inside Gaza grows, with Israel allowing only a trickle of humanitarian aid into the Strip after it had imposed a total blockade for more than two months. The UN warned on Friday that all of the 2.3 million population of Gaza is now at risk of famine. That came after it said in mid-May that one in every five Palestinians there is experiencing starvation.

The World Food Programme (WFP), which has enough food ready near Gaza’s borders to feed the besieged territory’s entire population for two months, renewed its call for an immediate ceasefire as the only way to get the food to starving Palestinians.

The UN’s food agency said in a statement that it brought 77 trucks loaded with flour into Gaza overnight and early on Friday, but they were stopped by people trying to feed their starving families.

The US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) is continuing with its own controversial aid distribution, which other aid groups say could violate humanitarian principles and militarise the delivery of desperately needed food. The Gaza Government Media Office said this week that at least 10 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli forces while trying to get aid.

“We went to this new area and we came out empty-handed,” resident Layla al-Masri said of a new GHF distribution point. “What they are saying about their will to feed the people of Gaza are lies. They neither feed people nor give them anything to drink.”

Another displaced Palestinian, Abdel Qader Rabie, said people across the besieged territory have nothing left to feed their families. “There’s no flour, no food, no bread. We have nothing at home,” he said.

Rabie said that every time he tries to get a box of aid at the GHF, he is swarmed by hundreds of other people trying to get it. “If you are strong, you get aid. If you are not, you leave empty-handed,” Rabie added.

There are also other risks. Families have reported that people have gone missing after reaching GHF distribution points.

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“One of these cases is a man from the al-Mughari family – The family is appealing to the ICRC, OCHA, the civil defence teams, to go and search for him in that area – very close to the Netzarim Corridor [in central Gaza],” said Hind Khoudary, reporting from Deir el-Balah, central Gaza. Israeli authorities rejected the accusation, Khoudary added.

Bombing and forced displacement

The Israeli army is continuing its attacks on Gaza, with the spokesperson of the territory’s civil defence saying that approximately 60 homes had been bombed in the last 48 hours in Gaza City and northern Gaza.

On Saturday, there were also reports from across Gaza of the Israeli bombing killing at least 20 Palestinians. More than 3,900 Palestinians have been killed since Israel unilaterally broke a ceasefire in March and resumed its devastation of Gaza, despite growing international condemnation.

Since Friday’s early hours, the Israeli army has also ordered “all residents” of southern Khan Younis, Bani Suheila, and Abasan to evacuate immediately after it said rockets were earlier fired. “The [army] will aggressively attack any area used as a launching pad for terrorist activity,” military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said in a statement. The area of southern Gaza “has been warned several times in the past and has been designated a dangerous combat zone”, he added.

According to the UN, nearly 200,000 people have been displaced in the past two weeks alone, with displacement orders now covering the entirety of Gaza’s northernmost and southernmost governorates, as well as the eastern parts of each of the three governorates in between.